Mini 1,115: Ozy and Millie Mafia (Game over!)

Zyrconium · Post Post #600 (ISO) » Sun Feb 27, 2011 12:13 am

^ Yup

Ghostlin · Post Post #601 (ISO) » Sun Feb 27, 2011 6:36 pm

Mod: I am feeling under the weather, I may be V-LA for the next day or two.

StrangerCoug · Post Post #602 (ISO) » Mon Feb 28, 2011 11:26 am

Ghostlin wrote:
Mod: I am feeling under the weather, I may be V-LA for the next day or two.

Noted. Get well soon.

Antihero is not that far off from his second prod.

werewolf555 · Post Post #603 (ISO) » Mon Feb 28, 2011 12:22 pm

Ok,
should we wait for ghostlin to get better before we proceed?

StrangerCoug · Post Post #604 (ISO) » Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:53 pm

Antihero is prodded.

Antihero · Post Post #605 (ISO) » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:50 pm

Oops, forgot about this game.

Well, it's down to ghostlin and I now I guess. Lynch one + vig the other if lynch is bad = win, hopefully

BUT

Werewolf, why didn't you claim results (or that you were blocked)?

werewolf555 · Post Post #606 (ISO) » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:52 pm

Because I assumed that everyone would guess I was blocked.

Zyrconium · Post Post #607 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 2:55 am

Vote Antihero

seems like it's a logical first step here...

AH: any reason other than the claim(which actually fits rather well with a scum-fake, given shiny logic) that WW is town?

Ghostlin · Post Post #608 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 5:50 am

werewolf555 wrote:Ok,
should we wait for ghostlin to get better before we proceed?

No, we should go. And I'm back, depending on how I feel. If I continue to feel this meh but OK, I can jump back to posting.

Let me admit something publically in this thread. Even though I spelled out a plan here, I cannot control who Zyrc shoots at night. The entire plan is contingent on who he finds scummiest. We know there are at least one scum left through the NKs. Zyrc may in fact be a SK, which case I'm willfully letting the SK determine the wincon. I don't see a better choice at this point.

Either one of Antihero or werewolf is scum. The plan mitigates both possibilites of scum: Antihero was given almost a town stamp by most platers, and in this situtation, we all know that townies that look like townies are scum the closer and closer you get to endgame. At the same token, werewolf has been floating by with a cop claim.

Using logic here: if werewolf isn't lying and there is a scum roleblocker, it's either me or Anti. The entire thing boils down to if werewolf will hammer, or who he'll vote for. Personally, I don't expect Anti to hammer himself. It's espoused as antitown. So, werewolf. Stop stalling: do you believe Antihero is scum, and why? Do you believe I'm scum and why?

Antihero · Post Post #609 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 7:20 am

Zyrconium wrote:
Vote Antihero
seems like it's a logical first step here...

AH: any reason other than the claim(which actually fits rather well with a scum-fake, given shiny logic) that WW is town?

Well, no.

I just hope you think about the NK more than you thought about that vote...

Antihero · Post Post #610 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 7:23 am

Yeah, I don't think WW is town here. Miller (some mods use it as "named townie", which is what I'm thinking is happening here) + vig + couple scum goons + bunch of VTs makes sense. If the roleblocker were going to block someone, I would think it would be Z (someone else having a kill = bad for mafia; especially w/ a vig that's already killed one scum), and the kill would be werewolf.

VOTE: werewolf

Pretty sure that's the answer here. I'm assuming werewolf is going to hammer me now, but we have this in the bag, I think.

Antihero · Post Post #611 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 7:30 am

If ghostlin is scum, the win is very well deserved. I really didn't think about what I said about him before, because thinking on it I will be very surprised if he ends up being scum. He's put in a very pro-town effort this last day. WW has just cruised through the game on a cop claim.

Scum don't leave a cop just floating around while killing people like Empking.

Antihero · Post Post #612 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 7:59 am

Oh crap.

I think I just realized why Ozy's not in this setup......

crap

Ghostlin · Post Post #613 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 8:04 am

Antihero wrote:Oh crap.

I think I just realized why Ozy's not in this setup......

crap

Care to share?

Antihero · Post Post #614 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 8:08 am

Oh, well, I can't worry about that now.

Z, do I need to say anything more convince you to make WW feel Millie's wrath tonight?

Just in case you do and WW hammers me, here it is:

I'm having an extremely hard time convincing myself that a scum roleblocker (threatened with an imminent loss from a vig kill), would choose to not block the killer and kill someone who's not the cop. Now, even if WW is a goon/godfather/whatever, I don't know why he would leave you around, Z. I guess he might have been banking on his cop claim rule him out of your viglist...

...or he knows he's immune to your kill.

Double crap.

Could one of you please unvote so we can get WW in on this discussion and maybe think about it a little more?

Antihero · Post Post #615 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 8:12 am

Ghostlin wrote:
Antihero wrote:Oh crap.

I think I just realized why Ozy's not in this setup......

crap
Care to share?

Well, it's kind of a half-baked theory, but if I'm right, Z is the SK (doesn't matter anyway, I'm happy to crown him over scum).

Since the town is full of people Millie isn't a huge fan of anyway (fishy's guy, Ms. Sorkowitz, Principal Bovine), she now makes sense as an SK (explains the absense of ozy; she and ozy being on different teams would make the flavor ridiculous).

Antihero · Post Post #616 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 8:18 am

Ghostlin, I see you at the bottom of the page. Take the vote off.

The more I think about it, the more I'm paranoid the last scum is BP.

Ghostlin · Post Post #617 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 8:21 am

Antihero wrote:
Ghostlin wrote:
Antihero wrote:Oh crap.

I think I just realized why Ozy's not in this setup......

crap
Care to share?
Well, it's kind of a half-baked theory, but if I'm right, Z is the SK (doesn't matter anyway, I'm happy to crown him over scum).

Since the town is full of people Millie isn't a huge fan of anyway (fishy's guy, Ms. Sorkowitz, Principal Bovine), she now makes sense as an SK (explains the absense of ozy; she and ozy being on different teams would make the flavor ridiculous).

You're right. It changes nothing; but it's good to know if I'm making a 3rd party win over scum.

Antihero: your post before that one is WIFOM.

As you like, Anti.

unvote

Antihero · Post Post #618 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 8:29 am

No, it's not WIFOM, it's thinking realistically about what scum do. Don't dismiss it. It's a fact: the last scum has (or thought he had) some kind of ace in the hole which would have prevented Z from killing him last night and ending the game (and obviously, it's not a roleblock). Hopefully, WW thinks it's the cop claim.

Ghostlin · Post Post #619 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 8:46 am

Antihero wrote:No, it's not WIFOM, it's thinking realistically about what scum do. Don't dismiss it. It's a fact: the last scum has (or thought he had) some kind of ace in the hole which would have prevented Z from killing him last night and ending the game (and obviously, it's not a roleblock). Hopefully, WW thinks it's the cop claim.

What I guess I mean by that is this: we can only eliminate so many variables.

We lynch you or me, and either of us is an RB, werewolf's telling the truth: town wins, unless Zyrc's an SK. Then the SK wins, and everyone's sad, but again, it's better than a scum win.

We lynch Zyrc, and we kiss our chances of winning goodbye, even if he is the SK, personally.

We lynch werewolf: if he's lying, he's lynched and dead. If he's telling the truth, Zyrc MUST hit scum for his wincon, even if he's the SK.

If he's lying, then, well, Zyrc hits him and we all go home unless he has a way to block Zyrc's kill. That would be bulletproof (which would be an odd thing to give to scum), JoAT with roleblock ability, or werewolf's the RB himself, but why didn't he stop Zyrc last night if that's the case?

Zyrconium · Post Post #620 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 1:02 pm

Antihero wrote:
Ghostlin wrote:
Antihero wrote:Oh crap.

I think I just realized why Ozy's not in this setup......

crap
Care to share?
Well, it's kind of a half-baked theory, but if I'm right, Z is the SK (doesn't matter anyway, I'm happy to crown him over scum).

Since the town is full of people Millie isn't a huge fan of anyway (fishy's guy, Ms. Sorkowitz, Principal Bovine), she now makes sense as an SK (explains the absense of ozy; she and ozy being on different teams would make the flavor ridiculous).

If I were to pick one character who this doesn't fit with it'd be Timulty....
Also, both of the parents I have, one of who happens to be an awesome pirate....

I don't think the town is stoked any further towards me being SK than just that Ozy is missing.

I do agree that not killing me was a strange move, simplest solution I can think of is that Parama is a scary man... but something unkillable does work, I really doubt WW came up with the cop claim by himself though, so it's either a fakeclaim, which makes him being unkillable(or BP, currently no difference) somewhat less likely, although I'm not sure it makes it

un

likely....

I doubt either you or WW were especially confident in not getting shot last night because our two dead people were strong advocators of each of your deaths, which again makes me curious as to me not being dead...

Which makes it fairly clear that we're back to deciding which of AH and WW are the scummier....

Ghostlin · Post Post #621 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 1:19 pm

Zyrconium wrote:
Antihero wrote:
Ghostlin wrote:
Antihero wrote:Oh crap.

I think I just realized why Ozy's not in this setup......

crap
Care to share?
Well, it's kind of a half-baked theory, but if I'm right, Z is the SK (doesn't matter anyway, I'm happy to crown him over scum).

Since the town is full of people Millie isn't a huge fan of anyway (fishy's guy, Ms. Sorkowitz, Principal Bovine), she now makes sense as an SK (explains the absense of ozy; she and ozy being on different teams would make the flavor ridiculous).
If I were to pick one character who this doesn't fit with it'd be Timulty....
Also, both of the parents I have, one of who happens to be an awesome pirate....

I don't think the town is stoked any further towards me being SK than just that Ozy is missing.

I do agree that not killing me was a strange move, simplest solution I can think of is that Parama is a scary man... but something unkillable does work, I really doubt WW came up with the cop claim by himself though, so it's either a fakeclaim, which makes him being unkillable(or BP, currently no difference) somewhat less likely, although I'm not sure it makes it
un
likely....

I doubt either you or WW were especially confident in not getting shot last night because our two dead people were strong advocators of each of your deaths, which again makes me curious as to me not being dead...

Which makes it fairly clear that we're back to deciding which of AH and WW are the scummier....

Frankly, I feel AH makes a better lynch candidate, WW makes a better shot candidate.

Why? It acutally has little to do with their play as town/scum. If we were to vote the scummest player in this game period, I'd lynch Werewolf, no regrets. Lylo, in my experience works differently. You often vote the helpful townie because they tend towards town. Also, if there's a 5-10% chance that Werewolf is telling the truth about an RB in the setup, that also needs to be factored in. An RB would hose Zyrc's kill.

The whole non-Vig kill only makes sense if you factor in the WIFOM factors. I howled for death for one of them, the mafia could guess you'd miss and miskill a townie in that setup. Why the other died, I don't know except it makes me look pretty damn guilty considering I said one or the other of them were scum.

Anti: In this scenario, I can't play entirely to scenarios I don't know about. I don't think there's a magical bullet scum have. If Werewolf, he's expecting us to lynch you and praying he can redirect Zyrc's shot. If you, you're going all in to stay alive. I can't blame you for that.

Vote: Antihero

Zyrc, here's hoping your shot's true.

Ghostlin · Post Post #622 (ISO) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 1:26 pm

Werewolf:

Let me make myself clear. You are the kingmaker in this situtation. If you are scum and drag your feet, I will make sure you die, either by rope or being lit on fire by asking Zyrc to do it. If you are acutally not a lying scumball, get in here, make some noise and give us your input.

werewolf555 · Post Post #623 (ISO) » Wed Mar 02, 2011 10:24 am

Ok, I'm back.

werewolf555 · Post Post #624 (ISO) » Wed Mar 02, 2011 10:25 am

Let me tell you why your plan will fail, I'm pretty sure of Ghostlin or Antihero being scum.