Mini 1,115: Ozy and Millie Mafia (Game over!)

[LlamaFluff]

Okay, so Zyrc is SK.

Nope. Those were two of the most obvious vig kills I have ever seen.

One of Ghost/Parama, one of Fishy/Anti with outside chance of ghost AND parama. Thats all she wrote. The setup is perfectly balanced with cop-vig-miller against RB-goon-?.

Will figure out which too later, wondering constantly on Parama at this point still.

[Fishythefish]

If your scumtell applies to yourself (if you're a townie, you know yourself to be town, right?), I would think you would want to reevaluate the validity of the scumtell.

I guess not, here.

Not in the slightest. This argument only means anything if scumtells have to be 100% accurate. I find it hugely more likely that a player Packbat never, ever mentioned is his scumbuddy. In my case, I know that scumtell doesn't actually work, but that's not a reason to ignore it in your case.

I don't intend to speculate as to whether Zyrc is the SK or vig. I'll work it out if and when it affects any decisions.

[Zyrconium]

So Parama thinks this is mountainous with SK and miller?

[LlamaFluff]

So Parama thinks this is mountainous with SK and miller?

Correct! Which is one of the reasons I keep thinking he is scum, he is keeping his options open as much as possible. Trying to get cop lynched, trying to get vig lynched.

[Zyrconium]

Ok, I'll ask the questions that have been irking me for just a little bit....

@Llama: What be thar case on Parama? (damn, ninja at least somewhat answered this in the while I'm typing)
@Parama: If you can remember, why was Llama scum at the start of Day 2?

@Ghost, are those really the only two counts that matter?

LynchMePls (6): Parama, LlamaFluff, Antihero,

vezokpiraka

,

Empking

,

Packbat

That was my wagon when I claimed. Of the whole wagon, I'd order that wagon from town to scum:

VOTE COUNT
Antihero (1): bristep123
Empking (5):

LynchMePls

, Parama,

DLG

, LlamaFluff, werewolf555
Jerbs (1): Zyrconium
LlamaFluff (1): Ghostlin
werewolf555 (3): Antihero,

Jerbs

,

Empking

These would seem relevant for any sort of analysis to border upon scientifically valid(top one isn't actually from a VC, because there wasn't any quite close enough to that time)...

[Ghostlin]

Zyrc: I tend to start end of day, it's pretty obvious that scum is at least on one hammer. However, looking at that data, we've either got Parama or LlamaFluff (or both!) with a possible side of werewolf. (Unlikely, although I don't discount WW=scum.)[

No town, I'm not kidding. Zyrc's the closest thing we have to a confirmed townie in this game (like I said, the SK needs to kill scum like anyone else in order to win, and he's not going to do that with a mafia flooded endgame).

All: I really don't care if Zyrc's the SK at this point: he's brought down the thunder on himself. With probably two scum left alive, his vig claim isn't enough to incite his continued health.

[LlamaFluff]

This game is just annoying, really can make a decent case for anyone to be scum at this point but I think most people have laid down a few town tells at the same time. I actually think the last post from Ghost trying to make enemies out of me and Parama puts him as my least prefered lynch out of the four. My prefrence between anti/fishy/parama just keeps jumping all over the place though.

Hardest part is the Parama-Pack interactions. All of the early game stuff basically screams partner, all the day two stuff says not partner, so im just trying to see if that was a bus or not. The constant pushing on the now obv-town wolf and zyrc really is making me want a dead parama though.

Anti seems bad around the early zyrc-jerbs interactions, and really hasnt thrown out too many town tells. I have no clue what Parama is talking about when he said anti is town by iso, since the only thing I consider a town tell was made post that comment.

Fishy I just have gut issues, with, although most of my thoughts of him scum were based on Zyrc first being scum. I guess I have to consider him to be least likey scum out of those three.

Need to look around and see if Parama or anti is more likely scum. Will vote once I figure that out.

[Antihero]

If your scumtell applies to yourself (if you're a townie, you know yourself to be town, right?), I would think you would want to reevaluate the validity of the scumtell.

I guess not, here.

Not in the slightest. This argument only means anything if scumtells have to be 100% accurate. I find it hugely more likely that a player Packbat never, ever mentioned is his scumbuddy. In my case, I know that scumtell doesn't actually work, but that's not a reason to ignore it in your case.

Well, what is?

Nonlogic is nonlogic.

This game is just annoying, really can make a decent case for anyone to be scum at this point but I think most people have laid down a few town tells at the same time. I actually think the last post from Ghost trying to make enemies out of me and Parama puts him as my least prefered lynch out of the four. My prefrence between anti/fishy/parama just keeps jumping all over the place though.

Hardest part is the Parama-Pack interactions. All of the early game stuff basically screams partner, all the day two stuff says not partner, so im just trying to see if that was a bus or not. The constant pushing on the now obv-town wolf and zyrc really is making me want a dead parama though.

Anti seems bad around the early zyrc-jerbs interactions, and really hasnt thrown out too many town tells. I have no clue what Parama is talking about when he said anti is town by iso, since the only thing I consider a town tell was made post that comment.

Fishy I just have gut issues, with, although most of my thoughts of him scum were based on Zyrc first being scum. I guess I have to consider him to be least likey scum out of those three.

Need to look around and see if Parama or anti is more likely scum. Will vote once I figure that out.

OK, first off, I don't know what was "bad" about the zyrc-jerbs interactions, and second, I think I recall fishy acting similarly (he's the one who first voted Jerbs for "buddying").

Why is fishy getting railroaded out of the decision tree here? You pretty much dismiss the idea of him being scum with "gut" from what I can comprehend which is pretty weak.

And if parama went through all that puzzle trouble as scum, he needs to get a hobby. His play is also meshing up much better with his town meta than scum meta (and yes, parama, you do have those). Personally, I think Parama is almost tied with werewolf and Zyr in the "least likely to be scum" category.

[Antihero]

...not to mention the flavor for fishy's claim is the least believeable out of everyone's. Mr. who? That music teacher? He shows up for a couple strips once in a blue moon.

[Ghostlin]

...not to mention the flavor for fishy's claim is the least believeable out of everyone's. Mr. who? That music teacher? He shows up for a couple strips once in a blue moon.

This is outguessing the mod. However, for the sake of argument, does my claim appear more often than his?

[LlamaFluff]

...not to mention the flavor for fishy's claim is the least believeable out of everyone's. Mr. who? That music teacher? He shows up for a couple strips once in a blue moon.

This is outguessing the mod. However, for the sake of argument, does my claim appear more often than his?

Flavor wise, my character and anti's are most town (my character being same age as Millie and switched places with her for a few days [hillarity ensues], also he is *storyline spoiler*

Millies dad

. Timulty is like the epitome of innocence).

Parama gets second tier with a secondary character with no real character flaws but never is shown to be some amazingly good hearted player.

The teachers are not shown in too good of a light most of the time (especially Sorkowitz), although its in part biased due to the story being told from childrens standpoint for the most part.

Characters I would expect to see as scum would be Beau Vine (flipped miller), Jeremy (dead goon), probably Felicia (although I would have though her as more likely miller), then maybe Sorkowitz (hated teacher) or Avery (follower, trying to be cool)

[Antihero]

...not to mention the flavor for fishy's claim is the least believeable out of everyone's. Mr. who? That music teacher? He shows up for a couple strips once in a blue moon.

This is outguessing the mod. However, for the sake of argument, does my claim appear more often than his?

Hey, if we're going to be using BS buddytells, I think flavor is fair game.

[Zyrconium]

...not to mention the flavor for fishy's claim is the least believeable out of everyone's. Mr. who? That music teacher? He shows up for a couple strips once in a blue moon.

This is outguessing the mod. However, for the sake of argument, does my claim appear more often than his?

Hey, if we're going to be using BS buddytells, I think flavor is fair game.

"My logic makes sense because his doesn't!"... good to know.

Now I'm off to go look at a Packbat case and see if Parama deserves the town cred I think he does....

[Fishythefish]

If your scumtell applies to yourself (if you're a townie, you know yourself to be town, right?), I would think you would want to reevaluate the validity of the scumtell.

I guess not, here.

Not in the slightest. This argument only means anything if scumtells have to be 100% accurate. I find it hugely more likely that a player Packbat never, ever mentioned is his scumbuddy. In my case, I know that scumtell doesn't actually work, but that's not a reason to ignore it in your case.

Well, what is?

Nonlogic is nonlogic.

I believe that X is a scumtell.
I believe that people who do X are often - but not always - scum.
I did X, and I am not scum, but I still believe the above.
You did X.
You are probably scum.

It's not exactly rocket science.

I've got no comment on the flavour thing. I haven't done more than glance at the comics, and I don't know anything about my character. I agree with the above post from Zyrc; it's totally bizarre that AH thinks that me using one kind of logic justifies him using another. All in all, this argument with AH today really feels like he is more interested in beating me in the argument than actually giving a fuck about my alignment. I think that comes from scum pushing a mislynch.

[Ghostlin]

...not to mention the flavor for fishy's claim is the least believeable out of everyone's. Mr. who? That music teacher? He shows up for a couple strips once in a blue moon.

This is outguessing the mod. However, for the sake of argument, does my claim appear more often than his?

Flavor wise, my character and anti's are most town (my character being same age as Millie and switched places with her for a few days [hillarity ensues], also he is *storyline spoiler*

Millies dad

. Timulty is like the epitome of innocence).

Parama gets second tier with a secondary character with no real character flaws but never is shown to be some amazingly good hearted player.

The teachers are not shown in too good of a light most of the time (especially Sorkowitz), although its in part biased due to the story being told from childrens standpoint for the most part.

Characters I would expect to see as scum would be Beau Vine (flipped miller), Jeremy (dead goon), probably Felicia (although I would have though her as more likely miller), then maybe Sorkowitz (hated teacher) or Avery (follower, trying to be cool)

Then out of the claims, if we go with Antihero's suggestion, I am the most likely scum. Thing is, I don't feel flavor is relevant in this game as of yet considering Beau turned out to be the miller and Avery turned out to be VT. Only Jeremy turned out to be the goon at the end of the day.

Possible lynches today:

Parama/Llamafluff:

I feel from the vote analysis extrapolated by Zyrc and myself that one of them is likely scum; possibly both, but that's kind of a out lier. I don't like this either.

Antihero:

This seems slightly OMGUS-y, but here goes. I feel that he's implying flavor-wise that the mod wouldn't use characters that aren't main characters of the strip for VTs and could possibly extrapolate that since I'm a teacher; flavor wise I'd make a good lynch. This leads now a no where dark alley, since Beau was a miller and Beau by all rights should have been scum. If I understand correctly, there is another at least one possible role PM for scum per Llama: Felicia. Even with all this extrapolation and everything I just posted, I feel this is outguessing the mod, and that Antihero is trying to discard one set of non logic for another to try to make a Fishy case while trying to use flavor to outguess the mod.

Werewolf isn't a good lynch today, for this is the likely endgame (This presumes Werewolf is actually telling the truth, and this presumes a three scum game, no SK.):

If we lynch the scum roleblocker, the scum has two choices: Kill Zyrc before he fires off another shot OR kill Werewolf. If I were scum, my higher win percentage would be killing werewolf, who'd be able to rat me out 100%. I could pray that we end up with dual dead town; putting town in a poor position, making them go into lylo. If I kill Zyrc, he gets his shot anyway and Werewolf gets a free investigation. (This presumes Werewolf is cop.)

If we don't lynch a Scum RB today, but do lynch scum, the RB has to choose to block Zyrc or block Werewolf and kill the other. It's riskier for them to do one versus the other, for if Zyrc takes out a random number generator for his vig kill, his odds are 20%.

If we don't lynch scum today, the options are for scum:

*Block Werewolf and kill Zyrc, in which case Zyrc gets a chance to hit scum before he dies. This isn't optimal, and here's why. If Zyrc hits town, we probably lose in a three scum game. However, he only has a 60% chance of doing so. (He's not going to shoot himself, and with 6 alive, that leaves 5.) Zyrc probably has a hunch of who he's NOT going to hit right now. Hopefully, that person's town.

*They must block Zyrc, and kill werewolf because you'd be a fool not to: werewolf can pretty much clear or kill anyone in this game if he's really the Cop with an investigation. If Zyrc hits scum (and remember, 40% chance with a number generator) we go into Mylo tomorrow, (4 alive, 1 scum needed to lynch) which gives us an extra day for information. If they kill werewolf, it's an automatic Lylo situation with a blocked Vig.

*Screw blocking or killing Zyrc, kill another player, block WW. Also risky, for there's a chance that Zyrc and scum hit the exact same player, negating one of the kills. Plus, Zyrc can still Vig scum! The odds improve that either of these might happen (I'd give it a 50% shot (remember, with 2 scum alive and 6 players, blocking Werewolf and not killing Zyrc, that leaves roughly 1 in 2 that they hit the same person of the same subset that Zyrc does) that they hit the same target if Zyrc hits town, and a 40% that Zyrc hits scum anyhow.) Scum may win overnight in the above two scenarios, but it'd be a risky win on a much safer lylo situation.

We aren't lynching

Zyrc

tonight. No one has counterclaimed, so we should treat him as confirmed, and if he's SK...well, he needs scum dead as badly as we do and just outed himself to the entire audience as a killing role.

Someone mentioned in passing that I sorta hinted I might be the SK: this was a fake out for scum. I figured if they night killed me, whoever was SK or Vig could get an extra night of protection. Didn't work, scum didn't buy it.

This vote indicates my dislike of selective logic, and the more likely seeming he's trying win an argument:

Unvote; vote: Antihero

[werewolf555]

Ghostlin, your willingness to not kill the sk scares me.

[Ghostlin]

Ghostlin, your willingness to not kill the sk scares me.

1) I doubt sincerely he's the SK.
2) Outing yourself as a killing role if there is a scum RB means your days of being an effective SK are numbered.
3) The SK doesn't need a mafia win as much as we don't need a mafia win.
4) Killing Zyrc at this juncture would be the stupidest thing town could do.

[StrangerCoug]

I thought I did this for this page...

VOTE COUNT

Antihero (2): Fishythefish, Ghostlin
Fishythefish (1): Antihero
Not voting (4): LlamaFluff, werewolf555, Zyrconium, Parama

With

7

players alive, it takes

4

votes to lynch.

LlamaFluff is on strike one. I don't allow spoiler tags.

[LlamaFluff]

Sorry mod, didnt want that not spoilered though incase someone wanted to read comic

[Parama]

Wait do we really only have 2 claimed PRs?
I haven't been paying attention >.< Zyrc can stay as town for now.
I still don't think werewolf is town, though.
Antihero is obvtown...

vote: werewolf

I don't care if he's claimed cop and we have a flipped miller. Outguessing the setup = lame. Outguessing flavor = lame. OUTGUESSING THE MOD = LAME.

I only thought Zyrc was SK due to a total lack of Ozy yet having Millie, which is incredibly suspicious from a flavor standpoint EVEN THOUGH I feel the kills were coming from a vig, like I said earlier.

[Ghostlin]

There is 0 reason to lynch werewolf. He is scum. Lynching him won't get us a shred of info, and we have a 2nd killing role, so he can be vigged. I see no reason to lynch him.

Why the 180 from this to the previous post? Yes, WW seems obvscum, but you didn't want to lynch him BEFORE.

[Parama]

honestly he's the only one I can pinpoint as scum atm. I have doubts about pretty much everyone else <.<

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah I outright refuse to vote wolf, I cant see him being scum, like at all.

Parama making me think he is scum again with the sudden push on him and Ghost is quickly giving back all the townie brownies I gave him.

[Parama]

Well damned if I care.
...though your retarded push on me even in light of the fact that I am intentionally not doing what you want me to almost makes me want to give you townpoints.

[Parama]

Llama. Do you think Fishy is scum?