Mini 269 - Game Over

[Poirot]

/confirm.
@ armlx: It's nice to see you. I'm Xyre on mtgsalvation.

[Poirot]

I wasn't sure if I was able to investigate before this game started or not. Why do some games allow you to investigate in the start and some not?

Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.

2) He's Belgian.

Correction: Christie's Poirot was Belgian. I'm actually American, and a huge Christie fan. But that's a trifling.

Let me guess... You meant to pm that to halo.

Oookay, so we found out who our cop is already?

Well, let's start by going off what we know about Graken, especially the major note I see: he joined around when I did, about 2 weeks ago. I do have experience, but this could be a sign that he doesn't. My judgment is that this is either a clever Mafia trap or a play mistake. He seems too resigned about it.

Well, looks like my mistake will make me the sacrificial lamb night 1. That's fine, I don't mind being off'd first, I should have payed better attention.

Is it me or does he not care?

FOS Graken

just in case. But right now, there are no good targets for a vote.

[Poirot]

Oh, and yes, I did see that the game just started, thanks for all your help!!!! I look forward to playing on this site. It's a little different then I'm used to.

Wait. If he accidentally posted this in the thread, then he would have known that the game was afoot. So why does he say this?

I'll post to main thread after I read some more of the rules.

The only way I can see him making this mistake is having multiple windows open simultaneously. So how could he be telling Halo that he would post after sending the pm if he had already started posting? That seems suspicious. And look at this:

It's a little different then I'm used to.

This means that he has already played mafia before-clearly he can't be a novice at this, or else he wouldn't have had any experience and had nothing to be used to. The alternative is the already-stated mafia ruse, and I'm beginning to suspect that Graken may actually be mafia posing as Cop.

That's fine, I don't mind being off'd first

He's already assuming that he'll be killed Night 1. However, there had only been one reference to his mistake (Green Crayons). I think he either saw this in retrospect and knew immediately what a mistake it was (which would make it seem that he has more experience than he's letting on) or that he's bluffing Cop to float through as Mafia. Gutsy, for sure, but reasonable nonetheless.

[Poirot]

Correction: Christie's Poirot was Belgian. I'm actually American, and a huge Christie fan. But that's a trifling.

I figured so much.

Confirm vote: Poirot
FOS: Matjoeman

For putting suspicion on Graken for his inadvertent cop claim. Seriously, do you really think a new player would do that intentionally if he was mafia? Also, if he is a fake cop, the real one would probably counterclaim, not to mention it's not so easy to keep up with a false cop claim for several days.

But if the fake cop counterclaims, they would be out in the open. It would actually make sense if I was the real cop and I was trying to undermine the fake-cop-claim.
The intention isn't to put much suspicion on Graken, but more to put information out. I felt that some subtleties in the posts he's made have gone unnoticed, and they could be signs of deception. Keep in mind that I only FOSed him-primarily for the reason that I think he isn't a major threat. I just wanted your attention.

Seriously, do you really think a new player would do that intentionally if he was mafia?

Going back to what I said (stupid BBCode), it's possible that he could have experience, especially because he says "it's a little different than I'm used to." In theory, he could just be trying to fake inability.

Just a thought, but it could be a bluff. While the mafia may be outnumbered, if they can force a mislynch, then get a kill on the real cop Night 1, it may be worth the sacrifice of one member if they can get momentum (and the cop). Besides, if they can turn the tide of the vote Day 2, their gambit paid off and they got the Cop.

[Poirot]

But, if I were mafia, why would I then reveal my drawback?

To seem plausible? I don't really know. It seems logical enough.

UnFOS Graken

.
Of course, now that it's out there, I guess we can really say that you're dead.

[Poirot]

UnFOS:Gracken

If this isn't a ploy then he dies tonight. If he doesn't we should consider lynching him.

If you are cop, BAAAAAAAAAAAD idea with the whole restriction claim.

I'd almost say we could attempt a lynch, except that that may give the mafia an extra kill if we're wrong. So, back to square 1.

[Poirot]

All, I have to travel this weekend and not sure if I will have internet access. I will be back on Monday around noon. I have already let Halo know via PM.

Okay, to flavor claim now. I am The Doomed Hero. Since I can't repeat verbatim, essentially, I get to investigate one player each night. The fruits of your labor are hardly ever praised and accordingly, if your character is protected then it does no good, cause after all, you are doomed to die for the sake of the town. Hopefully, you can do something to help.

Well, hope that helps. I have to split now. I'll see you all on Monday at the latest.

That's actually quite plausible. Wow.

UnFOS

.
So, now that we have this, where do we stand? Actually, nowhere.

Its all in the numbers. Lets say there are 3 scum (I have no idea but this is a typical number). We have gracken as unprotectable. We lynch someone today. That leaves 7 other people for the scum to target, so the chance of the doc working is 1/7, but if the doc had a chance to waste the protection it would be 1/8 chance of success. Make any more sense?

Hmm. So where does this put us? If there are three mafia, then we probably wouldn't lose anything from a blind vote, but right now, do we have anything going for us?

Prod Armlx

-I know he is online more than he posts.

[Poirot]

BJ, Graken already claimed earlier that he can't be protected at night. The flavour claim really can't hurt us anymore once that info is in the open, so I asked him to give it to give him another opportunity to slip up in the unlikely case he is scum.

Oh, and Warpdragon, my initial reaction to Graken's (second) claim was the same as yours, but look at it this way: If he hadn't claimed, the scum would assume that he'd be doc protected and choose another victim, so we'd be guaranteed at least one investigation from Graken. In the present situation, the doc is free to protect someone else, sure, but the scum can safely kill Graken, thus denying the town any investigation from him. So it would have been better if he hadn't claimed.

This is a good point. Of course, this means that the mafia gets a free shot at the Doc, but right now, a random killing exchanged for one investigation is better than losing the Cop in exchange for deterring a killing on someone who may be more important.

[Poirot]

I think we all need to decide whether we take Graken at face value or whether we think he has made too many stupid mistakes now to be our real cop.

I think this was the most suspicious of Dodgy's post, and was surprised that nobody else found it enough so to comment on it. While we do catch scum through stupid mistakes they make, I don't think the mistakes that Graken has made are exactly suspicious, just... well, stupid. I don't see how a role claim and a detailed description of his weakness equates to stupid mistakes that might make Graken scum. If anything, assuming Graken was scum, it would be some sort of gambit (not a stupid mistake) by claiming cop, but the notion of it being some sort of gambit is shot to hell with the weakness claim.

I, too, am curious behind BJ's vote for armlx.

I went over the possible reasons behind Graken being scum (on page 2, I believe), but I have to say that it's fairly impossible for Graken to be scum (and still alive). I say that we take Graken at face value and move on-it isn't a big deal.

[Poirot]

Uh, I've been quite convinced from the get-go that Graken isn't pulling some sort of risky gambit.

And I was supporting you.

Personally, I can't see why armlx is not posting. I'll prod him and see if he forgot. Could we get a

Mod Prod on armlx

as well, or possibly a replacement? When the discussion is held up by an absent player, nothing is happening.

[Poirot]

[quote=Graken] could be lynched by the town cause I may look mafiaish if I survive the first night.[/quote]
And why, exactly, would the mafia let you live?

[Poirot]

Right now, it may be more beneficial to look at something that could get us information in the long run. We've spent this time arguing about Graken's mistake. We need to do something that would get us closer to what we need.

[Poirot]

Right now, it may be more beneficial to look at something that could get us information in the long run. We've spent this time arguing about Graken's mistake. We need to do something that would get us closer to what we need.

such as?

Speedy?

OK, I've received my role, and I think it makes sense for me to claim right away.

I am a tabloid reporter. Each night, I must invent a contrived, wacky role for another player. I expect there is some sort of non-sane coplike role who is intended to be mislead by my inventions. I want to tell you beforehand exactly what I am doing, so if anybody comes accross these roles, you will know they are fake.

Perhaps tonight we'll have a "Giant Rutabega That Shoots Lasers Out of Its Ass", a vigilante who has a 25% chance of killing 3 random players instead of the intended target.

Okay, going back to this...why the hell did you claim in the first place?

He says that he's claiming in order to prevent confusion, but doesn't that just benefit the mafia more? Even if he's a townie, he could just be hitting the town to hurt them more.

Plus he's a tabloid reporter. Nothing good can come from that.

But going to what he said...

Just finished a reread. I think people are too quick to let Graken off the hook. I can totally see a newer player trying to be slick with something like this. I don't want to lynch him just yet, but we really shouldn't consider him confirmed. Besides, the more we express doubt over his innocense, the more likely he is to be spared by the scum if he really is a cop.

And why do people think I should target Graken with my ability tonight? The big downside to that is it prevents a real cop/second cop from checking him. I'm thinking I should target myself, and to keep me honest I suggest somebody else choose the rolename and ability.

Ooh! I have a great rolename.

Lynched Mafia.

Vote SpeedyKQ[/quote]

[Poirot]

Besides, the role seems too awkward for practical application. If you can replace roles, then this may actually harm the Town significantly by replacing power roles or enhancing Mafias. And for previously stated reasons, I can't see your role as Townie.

[Poirot]

Okay...quite a bizarre night.
1) Why did Graken misclaim?
2) What is up with the vandal?

I didn't expect that Graken wouldn't die, because he obviously had a power role...but if he was the doc, then who did he protect?

[Poirot]

Okay...the most logical conclusion I can see for Graken's misdirection is that he was hoping that he could stop the Mafia's attack by protecting himself. So why didn't he?

[Poirot]

Okay...the most logical conclusion I can see for Graken's misdirection is that he was hoping that he could stop the Mafia's attack by protecting himself. So why didn't he?

WHO CARES.....HE IS DEAD

Regardless...this could help determine if there was another power role that he decided was more important than his was.

[Poirot]

Sorry, didn't mean to be slow there.

How about: what is the reasoning behind your thinking that I am scum?

you ask a lot of questions.....


what have you done to make me think you are innocent....

The whole concept of "innocent until proven scum"?

FOS Baby Jesus

[Poirot]

Do you have any substantial reasons, BJ?

[Poirot]

It's so amusing...so many votes, so little direction.

Please get matjoeman here. We need someone to add something to this discussion.

[Poirot]

Okay...while we're after random votes, Vote Armlx for being Armlx.
No, I'm not serious. We need direction, rather than foolishness.

[Poirot]

I'm just putting out ideas. Some of them seem bizarre now that we know who Graken was, but I was just submitting suggestions. I'm not intending to be taken completely seriously when I say things like that. Just consider them, shrug them off, and move on.

[Poirot]

Sorry, been busy. I'm really not sure where to go from here. I'm torn between Poirot and Falcone. Poirot seems too jumpy (maybe not right word) and Falcone too commanding.

voting Matjoeman is a solid compromise

Right. When one person is thinking that another is babbling, it's always best to vote for the guy who doesn't say anything.

[Poirot]

This game is really slowing down.

This game died long ago, MJM.

I forgot Poirot = Xyre on MTGS. Behavior is fairly consistant with non-scumminess there, and that leaves Falcone.

You're forgetting that I'm

terrible

on MTGS...

[Poirot]

@ GC: Really, I don't think that suggesting possibilities for the town to work with is necessarily suspicious. I don't think you're being scummy, but you are abusing the FOS. You FOSed one-third of everyone else in the game, and that's hard to ignore. But it isn't deserving of a lynch.

[Poirot]

Falcone, Dodgy, Poirot, Graken, Adele, BabyJesus

Those people lynched SpeedyKQ. I actually forgot about looking back on that. BTW, why were there 7 votes on Speedy when 6 people were voting him?

Anyways, both people I went after were on the Speedy wagon, even without me remembering that. Coincidence? I think not.

Poirot's behavior is consistant with his behavior as a basic townie in a game I hosted on another site. However, my logic is flawed as I started reading a game he was a recruitable scum in. Still, thats about 1.5/2 and I'm willing not to vote him on that. MY other suspect was Falcone, so....

Ah. I played badly in both games.

@ Falcone: I just don't like players who multiple-FOS.

[Poirot]

Right now, I'm just checking in. If I said anything about this, I'd look foolish.

[Poirot]

I think this discussion has lapsed into absurdity, essentially. The speed-wagon on armlx doesn't help, and I do not wish to vote at this time. Think what you will, Falcone.

[Poirot]

BJ, any reason, or am I just the next person you happen to focus on?

you are scum!!!

Gah. Thank you for continuing to act ridiculous, BJ.

Vote Baby Jesus

For examples (all quotes attributed to BJ)

can we focus on lynching falcone pls?

lets just finish off armlx pls...

willing to let armlx slide for now

so can we focus on voting matjoeman pls??

voting Matjoeman is a solid compromise

why isn't Matjoeman dead yet....

and that's just from the last five pages. He sometimes posts information, but he mostly is just pushing random bandwagons.

[Poirot]

can we focus on lynching falcone pls?

Forgot this one. So that's
armlx
Matjoeman
Falcone
as well as attacking Adele. He's accusing 2/5 of everyone still in the game, and I doubt that all four of them are mafia.

[Poirot]

Well, you're acting scummy. I'm unsure if that's a scum tell, but I don't have a great amount of experience. All I know is that you're playing poorly, pushing bandwagons, and not really contributing much.

[Poirot]

Oh.
Didn't look at the vote count.

Unvote

[Poirot]

Unvote, Vote Falcone

I have my eye on you Poirot......

As always. Remember Random 2? That was so awful.
I have my eye on you as well, armlx. Perhaps Falcone has some logic to what he says...nah.

[Poirot]

IGMEOY=I've Got My Eye On You.
There's a list of Commonly Used Abbreviations (heh, or "CUA") on the wiki.
IGMEOY is one step down from a FOS

this seems to imply there are those you do NOT have your eye on....

Or would be an implication that you could just be blind.

Look, I'd rather not say anything else until armlx replies.

@armlx: am i right in thinking xyz with the ... and only that and hmm?
'cos if so, Shocked ooh...

Mr. Green

I think I know what this means. Armlx, do you know what she's talking about?

[Poirot]

Look, I'd rather not say anything else until armlx replies.

@armlx: am i right in thinking xyz with the ... and only that and hmm?
'cos if so, ooh...

I think I know what this means. Armlx, do you know what she's talking about?

I do know. Whether or not you know what I know that she knows is a different matter.

Okay. Now

I'm

confused. Which you could argue I deserve

How Poirot knows what I'm getting at, I have

no

idea.
armlx

should

know what I mean, broadly speaking; he hasn't answered my question/concern yet, but It's not urgent; we can leave it 'til tomorrow or whatever.

so can we focus on lynching falcone now....

Do I look like a sheep?
*checks mirror*
Okay, yeah, I do kinda look like a sheep. I ought to style my hair differently...
But, anyway, I'm

not

a sheep. If you want us to follow your lead, you need to give some kind of reasoning, and not just expect us to lynch someone at your seemingly-random behest.

It's an educated guess. I'm definitely not posting it, right or not. I could be wrong. *shrug*

And you're apparently under the assumption that BJ posts logic in his contentions.

[Poirot]

I wouldn't necessarily say that they are confirmed, but it isn't common that a role like BJs is on the Mafia.

[Poirot]

Considering the pressure put on me by Falcone, it may be surprising to know that it sounds plausible enough to avoid a speed lynch. While Martyr may not be the best fit for the role, it seems possible.

[Poirot]

Who are you using your ability on tonight?

I'll target the person the town wants me to target. I'm most suspicious of Poirot at the moment - for reasons, see my previous posts.

*Poirot shakes his head*
Falcone, I'm not the one who's one vote away from lynching. Threatening me isn't going to make me any happier about sparing you. Besides, I don't think you're as important in the grand scheme of things as, say, a cop. And considering your role, I definitely don't want to see two important towies dead in one night.
Don't threaten the people who are protecting you.

Vote Falcone

[Poirot]

Okay, okay...I have my reasons. Do what you will, but Poirot's Role > Falcone's Role.

[Poirot]

It has been less than thirty hours since Falcone claimed, opened up a claim-test option and

got lynched

! That's so wrong. Major

FOS: Dodgy and Poirot

for ignoring Falcone's willingness to prove his claim - and so definately die one way or the other - and throwing their votes on without bothering to give anyone else a chance to remove theirs.

ADELE!

Read my third-to-last post. I responded to his post by saying that it made sense, but he threatened to

kill me

, which is a mistake. Do what you will, tell me when to claim, but Falcone, in the grand scheme of things, could have done serious harm...if we believe his claim in the first place. And I would definitely not want to see two dead townies on day three, with no progress made.

[Poirot]

Ok, I kinda agree with Adele that poirot has acted a little sispiciously at times but then I also think that Adele has too.
She was so annoyed that we had lynched Falcone without letting him defend himself. She was especially annoyed with me for it because she FOS'ed me.
She then quickly removed her vote on Falcone.
Falcone's false role claim was so transparrent that he had to be scum but Adele was trying to stall us from the lynch in my opinion.

I don;t think Adele is scum tho.

I don't either.

Let's examine the vote: first, there were BJ and armlx, who are confirmed townies (particularly armlx, now that he's no longer with us). The other three are Adele, Dodgy, and myself.

Unless I misread my PM, I'm not scum, and I don't believe that Adele is...so, taking the path of least resistance,

Vote Dodgy

.

[Poirot]

Ok, I will take your word for it BJ, as I know youre townie and may be privy to info that I'm not, so my suspicion of Adele has deminished somewhat with you thinking she is innocent.
@Poirot, I know for a fact that I am not scum, please go ahead and lynch me just so I can prove your theory is utter crap, be my guest.
Secondly, why is it in every game that the people that lurk never get lynched, well at least its happening in this game and its starting to concern me.
@ poirot, you have been suspicious for some time and its interesting to me that you have picked me out of the Falcone lynch line up as scum. Could it just be that you are scum and all the others that lynched Falcone are either confirmed townies or suspected townies.
I don't buy your game play at all
I think you are in a corner because you know I'm a townie so thats why you have come out to attack me.
I think youre scum!

VOTE: Poirot

And yet you fail to realize that everything you just said could just as easily be applied to yourself. You aren't confirmed, so why are you acting like you are?

[Poirot]

Well, how often would you see that type of role in a game with twelve people? You're looking at a possible three people dead in one night, or 25% of all the players. Doesn't that seem a little bizarre?

Anyways, unless there's something wrong with my role, I'm 100% sure that Dodgy is scum.

[Poirot]

Anyways, unless there's something wrong with my role, I'm 100% sure that Dodgy is scum.

May as well elaborate.

Well, considering where we stand...because we have one scum out, I guess I'll throw myself into the fray.

I'm the cop, but I didn't know it until the night Graken was killed.. For all I know, I could be paranoid or insane, but I investigated Dodgy and he was "guilty".

[Poirot]

I'm the cop, but I didn't know it until the night Graken was killed.. For all I know, I could be paranoid or insane, but I investigated Dodgy and he was "guilty".

Are you saying that you weren't given an option to make a night choice for Night One?

Kinda. I was originally told I was vanilla, but then Halo pmed me Night 1 to tell me that I was now the cop. For some reason, I think that Graken was some kind of cop/doc hybrid and I was a backup, but inevitably, I've only gotten one investigation-last night, on Dodgy.

@ Dodgy-the only way that would work is if I'm paranoid/insane, which I doubt is the case in a small game without other cops.

[Poirot]

*Disco fever*

Good to know. Will someone do the honors?

[Poirot]

Well, I probably won't survive the night, so good luck, town. Hopefully my gambit wasn't in vain.

[Poirot]

Wow. I'm...not...dead.
Anyways, I took a shot in the dark and investigated warpdragon, who's innocent. So here's where we stand:

BabyJesus

-pretty much confirmed by ability.

Poirot

-Cop

Warpdragon

-role unknown, but innocent.

Green Crayons

matjoeman

Shamrock

Incidentally, I lynched Falcone because I was concerned he'd gambit his ability on my life, which would obviously be bad for the town. If I'm mafia, then I'm, like, Mafia Jesus.

[Poirot]

Wasn't Graken the Doc? And by Night 1, do you mean the night before or after Day 1?

[Poirot]

Thank you for clarifying.

So we have something like this from the "list" I created:

GreenCrayons: The Notary Republic, according to self. The original cop. What I'm confused about is how he knew I was the cop before I did. It's suspicious, and his answer made it more so.

What do I think? It's plausible...but he's giving us a scenario with two cops and two docs. How often does that happen?

matjoeman: Doctor, according to GC. If GC's lying, he's taking a significant gamble on matjoeman claiming and getting him out...unless they're both scum, in which case, it doesn't matter. So even if he is the Doc, it probably doesn't matter if he claims. I'm unsure about him in general...especially because he hasn't posted much, and it's hard to pass analysis on it.

What do I think? matjoeman really is hard to read. If GC's town, then Matjoeman's town...but then we have a possible problem. If there are three scum, then I'll say that GC's town, and matjoeman's probably town, which means that Shamrock is scum. If there are four scum, then he's either trying to get matjoeman to say something foolish, or he's scum, and so is matjoeman.

Shamrock: The Gunsmith, according to himself. His investigations largely make sense. If he's right about GC, then we have a good idea that GC's lying. Therefore, I'll definitely say that

either Shamrock or GreenCrayons is scum

.

What do I think? At least he's a balanced cop. It's pretty much impossible for both Shamrock and GC to be telling the truth, becuase I've never seen a game with three cop-esque roles. Among twelve people.

Final analysis: If GC's scum, then he's doing the right thing by choosing matjoeman as his target, because mjm has posted the least among all of us. As long as matjoeman doesn't post, GC has credibility. So

matjoeman is probably innocent

, but not likely the Doctor. If we had multiple docs, then you would think we'd have fewer nightkills.

So it comes down to Shamrock v. GC, and I think a fixed cop is more plausible than a real cop...especially when I'm the real, if delayed, cop.

Vote GreenCrayons

[Poirot]

GC-here's my big question. How did you know I was a cop before I knew?

[Poirot]

...wow...
Thank you mjm. That clears up a lot.

Unvote, Vote Shamrock

[Poirot]

Okay, okay...
Shamrock, if you're wrong, you're the next to go.

Unvote, Vote GreenCrayons

[Poirot]

Okay, if GC was right about mjm, here's where the two (other) cops stand:

I'm a Gunsmith. My investigations were:
N1 - Falcone - Gun
N2 - BJ - No Gun
N3 - GC - Gun

My question is thus: did we know that BJ was the double-voter on Day 2 or 3?

This seems fairly stock. I don't understand why he didn't counterattack Falcone's claim as the Martyr...because the Martyr doesn't seem like they'd have a gun, vigilante role or not. So why didn't he? Maybe because this is purely fabricated?

Unlike Poirot, I've been given the ability to use my role every night, including on Night One. I've investigated Poirot, matjoeman and Shamrock in that order, starting on Night One. Vote: Shamrock. I was given his name as mafia.

Okay...we know he got Town, Town, Mafia. Again, fairly stock...except that he knew that mjm was the doctor. And he was right.

So one of two things are the case:
1) GC is a lying mafia investigator.

2) Shamrock is a lying mafia member, and GC is the Cop.

Anyways, does it matter who we lynch? As long as we lynch one of these two, we know who the scum is. We can afford a death to catch the last mafia.

BJ, we need to choose someone. Right now, I'll

Vote Shamrock

. We need to lynch someone.

[Poirot]

Right. If we're wrong, we lose a townie, plus another townie at night. There are still three townies alive in the morning, and we know who they all are.

[Poirot]

Does your vote count double today, BJ?

[Poirot]

For simplicity, let's just go with who we're both voting for. Like I said, it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. But do what you want. I just want this day to end with a lynch on one of them.

[Poirot]

Well, that was tragic.

I checked GC, and he's scum. Let's end this.

Vote GreenCrayons

.

[Poirot]

But you have to admit, warp, that it's incredibly amusing.

[Poirot]

*sigh*

BJ, if we had just lynched GC like I had wanted, we wouldn't be in this situation.

And why did we have four mafia, with only a cop and a gunsmith?!