@Mina: here's the exact line of reasoning. He targets SC with something. I've been shocked about the no SK since I read the BP and we had no NKs - it is just too much.
Roleblocker/JK
- yeaaahhhh.
Tracker
- See CooLDoG. Two tracker setups are possible, but AGM didn't react like he got his role claimed Day 1, he acted like he thought the claim was kinda horseshit, and backed down somewhat. Weird behavior.
Cop
- Okay, so this was my first instinct. But if I'm a cop, I would claim Vanilla to my neighbor until I'd cop confirmed them. It just seemed so unlikely that AGM claimed cop to ZANG of all people, in a neighbor thread, day 1, when shooting cops is like scumplay 101, and Zang was fucking Zang.
Vig
- okay, so we're narrowing it down to vig. That leaves a lot on it being a killing power. Now why serial killer?
First, I stand by this - his play has been off all game. He's been asking me to buy stuff that doesn't make any sense. And why the neighbor claim to 'clear' Zang? And why did he drop it day 2? And why did he back down when it looked like Zang might come into the thread and claim his role? Certainly if Zang was scum, he knew the scum knew.
So points:
1) I was 80% or so on him being a vig power, because none of the other options made sense to me.
2) He cleared Zang and then launched into him day 1, to lynch him, then backed down when it looked like his role might get outed.
3) I am certain his play was off.
Okay, so 2+2. No one seemed overly impressed with the role PM stuff, so it wasn't something like "the mod sent us both identical 'town' PMs at 7:43" or some shit like that. So it really wasn't convincing enough to derail the wagon, imho. Not on ZANG. So either he out thought himself (to be fair, happens all the time), or...
Why not lynch Zang?
1) He's scum and Zang is town, so it would make him look bad to lynch the town roleblocker - possible. But... Zang. Come on, yeah.
2) He wants Zang alive.
Why not lynch scum on D1? Because that's a damn problem for the scumteam. That's why. Leads to all sorts of connections being drawn, hell, scum lose their RB, that's a great thing to have happen day 1, for town. Now, lets say AGM manages to play really town, and ALSO gets town lynched day 1? Day 2, start a Zang case. Now Zang gets lynched, but first, AGM gets the credit for lynching scum. And second, there is, by the time day 3 rolls around, 5 dead townies and 1 dead scum! Leaving, by my count, a situation he could pass off as 5:2 with him leading the one scum wagon. Get another scum wagon day 3 (which he can participate in), and you have 3:1. He claims vig, the only people left alive are people he thinks are really townie, and he can say "oh, we have 2 shots - lynching and vigging." Bam! Serial Killer win.
Sure, power roles could fuck with this, but you know what fucks with it more? Lynching scum day 1, then having someone come forward day 2 with PR evidence on scum 2, then having scum 3 lynched on day 3, and everyone going "oh... fucking serial killer."
And remember, he can shoot scum to even the odds if we're lynching too many townies. It's ridiculous for him to let us lynch scum day 1 as the serial killer, if he can prevent it.
Being JKed must have thrown a spanner in the works, and then Zang knew he was Vig and there was a wagon on him. AGM backed off the wagon as soon as the vig thing looked like it might be outed. Probably planned to "vig" Zang N2 if we lynched a townie, and then he could be safe as houses from the people he was scared of adding 2+2.
Tenuous? Not really. I thought there was a decent chance of it being bullshit - but I was getting so sure of Zang scum, I was fairly certain if he WAS the vig, there's no way that scum didn't know. I just needed to get some sort of reaction.
Raw bloody panicky lashing out was about what I expected of him as the SK.
smileys. I guess it's possible Zang was lurking and ignoring Grey's advice in the scum QT to come forward with AGM's vig claim, and then GI might have tried to "naturally" suggest the idea of AGM being SK in the thread. And his explanations of his thought process behind his AGM-is-an-SK theory have all struck me as slightly off.
)