Mini 1113 - Brotherhood of the Wolf Mafia

[SpyreX]

Hey about to run out for the day but:

UK is town.
AGM is absolutely not town.
Reck was super town and I am not amused to see him dead.
The beast that is, was, and will be AKR is scum.
Mina's on the fence.
UT may, in fact, be scum (there was a happy moment and a throwaway vote on Zang I don't like).

There's way too many in the middle that could get burned at the stake.

AND OF COURSE:

SC, believe it or not, is town *shock*

[Mina]

So SpyreX, do you believe that AGM is Zang's scumbuddy or third party?

[SpyreX]

There's the rub. Two kills last night point at 3rd party.

That, also, explains the SK-Vig 'helpful' kill on LMP.

[SpyreX]

To be fair, of course, I did have down in my notes initially CD as tricksy SK and AGM as the vig but that's obviously not right.

[UncertainKitten]

We're in mylo tomorrow no matter what.

AGM is almost certainly an SK.

So, Plan A is lynch AGM, someone dies, leaving us with (assumably) 4:2

Plan B is lynch or shoot someone who's scum, hopefully, or else we're screwed, and lead into, as a worst case:

3:1:1

We lynch AGM, and go into F3 and hope we win.

[Mina]

SC, believe it or not, is town *shock*

So you were expecting to get a scum role PM?

You know, I'd really like for you to be town, SpyreX, but that would involve me dividing by zero.

I mean...StrangerCoug's nervous vote-and-unvote for Katsuki, and then revote because "I realized my questioning her without a vote wasn't doing any good." (It sunk in like two weeks later how terrible that was.) His voting Katsuki even though his top suspect was the leading wagon. Untrod Tripod bussing immediately on D1.

The most likely scumteam seems to be SpyreX/Zang/GhostWriter. I'm getting increasingly paranoid of other players, though.

Hey, GhostWriter, you've been awfully silent since D2. Thoughts on what you've missed?

Untrod Tripod, when you hammered Katsuki, did you know that he had an ability he wanted to use?

AGM, did you even REREAD Zang before vigging LMP? Did you think about how likely a Zang-LMP team was? Weren't you the one who said the scumteam was StrangerCoug-GreyIce-Zang?

I think I'll stay silent on what we do with AGM for now, though. Hang on, looking at vote counts.

EBWOPreview: UK, let's not discuss this and just scumhunt like normal. Keep your thoughts on AGM to yourself for now.

[GreyICE]

*sigh* I'm never going to live down AKR's play, am I? If you want to lynch me for his shit play, I don't even know how to respond. What was he doing? How was he voting? What was he thinking? These are complete mysteries to me. I think it's reasonably low for someone who is replacing StrangerCoug to attack someone who isn't even here anymore AND in the same post expect us to believe he's town

Okay, I'm going to guess that no scum on earth is fucking retarded enough to claim neighbor with a scumbuddy. AGM would have been better off to laugh at Zang and throw him under the bus. Especially since, as I recall it, AGM brought up and confirmed the connection. So, I'm going with third party, because the flailing yesterday confirmed it to me.

O RLY? Why would I be any more likely to be Vig than Cop? Or Tracker?

Or Watcher?

I dunno AGM, why would you be more likely to be a Vig than a Watcher? I mean I'm sure StrangerCoug is actually town AND a likely target for the Night Kill. Seems perfectly rational to me. There's really only a handful of things you target suspected scum with.

The problem I have at the moment is that AGM's one chance of victory lies with us lynching town today, then he kills town tonight. That would leave us, unless I'm VERY mistaken about the setup, in 2:2:1. Then his goal is going to be to get to 1:1:1 Kingmaker (we lynch town, he tries to shoot scum, we lynch scum, he tries to shoot town) and try to sell the townie that he's the town vig (or he's NK immune, and sells the townie on no lynch). If we lynch scum, or if he shoots scum, it goes to 3:1:1, and we lynch him and have as much as we can going into LyLo.

If we lynch AGM, then there's only one NK (barring mod shenanigans, which I'm starting to think are VERY likely) and we're likely in 4:2 MyLo. Which is essentially the same situation, less one townie. And less the chance AGM hits scum by total accident, and leaves us in 3:1:1 or 4:1 when he meant to leave us in 2:2:1.

SpireX's lack of Mariyta and Ghostwriter in the reads is something that bothers me. Both of these people are sliding in and off the radar screen. I get a strong town vibe from Mariyta, but I tend to agree with Mina from yesterday. I'd love it if scum was all in the inexperienced and shitty players, but I get the feeling that's just not it. I keep forgetting GhostWriter is even in the fucking game, and every time that happens, I get worried.

P.S. SpireX, even if you're scum, I am so fucking glad someone else got "Holy shit he's not town" vibes off AGM's posts.

[SpyreX]

@UK:

No no. AGM needs us right now as much as we need him (and there IS the offchance he is town in crazy land). Further, the scum are playing with fire leaving him free and clear.

He can't be the lynch today. We need to dance that dance.

@Mina:

No, I got my PM first but re-reading made me sigh a bit. To say SC's been off his game (which I absolutely dig) is an understatement. I'll probably have to go because of it but not before trying to put the train back on the rails.

@ICE:

I'll go into detail on AKR's 'help' but while I commend your being ACTIVE which is a change I still don't like the push and pull late yesterday. And, no, Ghost and Mari aren't in the reads because they ARE (I thought there was more woosh) the great collective that needs to be burned at the stake. I'd bet one of them at least is scum.

So, to be more precise I'm betting on:

AKR/UT, ??? (Me being wrong about a read probably Mina maybe), Ghost/Mari

[SpyreX]

WOOOSH nevermind its 13 players.

AKR/UT / Ghost/Mari and let ??? be damned

[UncertainKitten]

@Spy: You missed the part where I damn well support lynching scum today, as opposed to AGM.

@Mina: Why? It's important we determine how we're doing this, because OTHERWISE WE END UP IN A PRISONER'S DILEMMA!

[SpyreX]

I thought you were saying:

We lynch AGM, and go into F3 and hope we win.

Was the course you wanted. Which I think is the gamble of gambles.

But, yes, we need to lynch right today. And not AGM.

[UncertainKitten]

No, my course is LYNCH FUCKING SCUM TODAY, lynch AGM, go to F3, lynch scum, win.

[AlmasterGM]

guys I'm not fuckin SK get real here.

I was going to shoot SpyreX but then UK was like no no no I'm bringing in GOOD ANALYSIS, LMP needs to die instead! And it seemed like an OK shot, so I made it. And then GreyICE was like, "blah blah bulletproof" and I wasn't going to waste my shot.

ANYWHO, I'm not even a full Vig. That was all lies. I am half Vig, half doctor (I can do one every other night). I already fullclaimed flavor - I'm Mani, badass indian companion dude.

SO YEAH, MY FULLCLAIM IS DOCTOR NEIGHBOR VIG. Suck on that one for dinner.

Anyway, the OBVIOUS play here is to lynch greyice. Zang's flip makes him confirmed scum.

Vote: GreyICE

[AlmasterGM]

This fact that SpyreX buys into this whole thing just makes me extremely sorry I didn't shoot him. I've been pro-town as hell, but then the minute I catch scum on a slip it's all BLAH BLAH BLAH AGM IS SERIALKILLER.

SCUM: GREYICE PLUS SPYREX

You're welcome.

[UncertainKitten]

Well, I said I was bringing in a good player. And admit it, AGM, you know SpyreX being here is making this game 100% better, regardless of his alignment.

Oh, btw, what is your proof about the whole being town thing you mentioned yesterday?

[AlmasterGM]

I agree, which is why I didn't shoot him. I wanted to have a little fun in this game and not just be like, "lol look at all these VIs."

Anyway, the "confirmed" thing is that I am half-doctor. I can also choose not to shoot. I think both of those things point strongly in the direction of me being town and not SK.

[AlmasterGM]

Also, the fact that the person who called me SK had just claimed scum, the person backing him up is likely scum, and I've been hella town this whole game.

[SpyreX]

You know for a fact that's not why I'm questioning it.

Your change in role DOES change things for the better and definitively means you're not getting lynched today sans shenanigans.

OF course, you may be able to break this wide open if you went off the cuff and didn't protect CD N1

[AlmasterGM]

OF course, you may be able to break this wide open if you went off the cuff and didn't protect CD N1

...what?

[AlmasterGM]

I didn't protect anyone N1, I was "poisoned" N1 (aka jailkept).

[UncertainKitten]

That's really really not compelling evidence. For one, no proof you're a doctor. And two, see Insane Asylum II. SK doctor.

Now, as for scum calling you SK, see Higurashi mafia. I claimed scum after a truly terrible situation and *correctly* pointed out the SK. Town didn't listen because I was "confirmed scum".

This thinking is slippery.

@SpyreX: Why do you believe him? Secondly, didn't we figure that AGM got attacked for some reason?

And, finally, I still don't wanna lynch AGM today, so that's settled.

[GreyICE]

Zang is Grégoire de Fronsac. I am Mani.

UK, dug this up for you. Zang flipped his claim, judging from the bloody tomahawks lodged in LMP, I'd say that Mani is AGM's real claim (

hey mod, nice kill flavor, we'd never guess it was Mani just from the flavor or anything

).

That being said, those were the two heroes of the film, and CD flipped the big villain, so I'm not sure gaming flavor will help us too much.

[AlmasterGM]

Can we at least all agree that GreyICE is CONFIRMED SCUM?

[UncertainKitten]

@GI: And? What do I care about a name? Did you even read my post? THE NAME IS NOT THE FUCKING POINT!

@AGM: Not confirmed but a decent lynch.

[AlmasterGM]

How is he not fuckin confirmed scum. Zang told him I was Vig in the QT and then GreyICE slipped in the thread.

If that's not confirmed then I don't know what is (minus cop).