Mafia 123 - Outdoorsmen Mafia 2 GAME OVER

[Empking]

huh. DRK. i'll have to fight the urge to vote him.

Battle Mage: today is DH or EPM. pick one.

haha No.

If you had to pick one which would you pick?

[Calcifer]

Mastin's entrance reads SCUM.

Funny, considering I didn't even have a PM at the time. Well, obviously I did when I posted, but that post was, like, 95% written before I even knew for sure if I was going to hydra.

If the two heads of a hydra are co-ordinated effectively, is that a towntell or a scumtell? Calcifer not allowed to answer.

Which fallacy is this, False Dilemma? I know, you said not to answer, but what about "null"? A possibility you left off?

The fact Mastin backed down to DH is unbelievable...particularly given DH obviously doesnt believe in his own jargon lol.

Eh? I don't understand what you're saying, here. Mind clarifying? Seriously, that made no sense to me.

What about the other team? I haven't seen any mention of your suspects for this.

I'm not Nacho, so I can't answer for him, but my notes say both Demon and UT were high on the list. Demon and UT read as buddies, and Demon-Evil-UT-DGB is too large for a single scum team, so that means Demon probably isn't on the same scumteam as Evil, but is still scum. I read their interaction as scum-on-scum, and--as I mentioned originally--my thoughts were 'BUSSING!'

---

On a side-note, I think I remember doing some wagon analysis in my notes. I'll see if I can find it.

---

Seems like that's about all my half can answer. Now to drag up that VCA.

[iamausername]

Interesting. So you both say that Calcifer may be right about pacman, but then go and vote an active lurker. How many scum are in this game again?

1-2 remaining from DGB's team (pacman is here), 2-3 from the other team (chances are that UT is here).

They both are, but it's who they vote for which is important. Iam votes for UT, which is a valid vote.
bv votes for a relatively-new player who is a little on the lurkerish side.

Which of those looks worse?

UT has lurked more than Tyler.

And that makes him a

less

valid vote?

today is DH or EPM. pick one.

pacman. But really, I'd love to know if there's any good reason not to lynch Untrod Tripod. The only posts he made on D1 that could possibly described as containing content contained

scummy

content. Post #82 & Post #84 are a completely obvious case of scum standing on the sidelines egging on a wagon on town (or, perhaps, other-team-scum) without getting involved in it themselves. "DH is digging holes for himself" is not a comment on his alignment, because both scum and town are perfectly capable of digging holes for themselves. It's just scum gloating that someone is getting in trouble and it's not him.

I mean, yeah, pacman is likely scum, but at least he's making the effort to pretend otherwise. It is frustrating to me that everybody seems to be content to ignore UT entirely.

Mod: Untrod Tripod needs an untrod triPROD

[DeathRowKitty]

Confirming replace in and receipt, understanding, and ingestion of role PM due to extreme hunger etc etc

I'll be busy most of this afternoon, so expect my catch up post to come tonight, most likely.

[Empking]

V/LA this Saturday

[Untrod Tripod]

Mod: Untrod Tripod needs an untrod triPROD

No I don't! Promise!

I was actually considering replacing out because I was feeling overwhelmed by this game, but that quote alone makes me want to say. I will start participating starting NAO.

Well...more specifically later today, after work.

Promise.

If I don't have a good catchup/giving-reads-of-players post up by tonight (I'm on PST, btw), consider me an asshole who needs to be force replaced.

[Battle Mage]

Mastin's entrance reads SCUM.

Funny, considering I didn't even have a PM at the time. Well, obviously I did when I posted, but that post was, like, 95% written before I even knew for sure if I was going to hydra.

Haha brilliant. Now if you can just provide some proof...?

If the two heads of a hydra are co-ordinated effectively, is that a towntell or a scumtell? Calcifer not allowed to answer.

Which fallacy is this, False Dilemma? I know, you said not to answer, but what about "null"? A possibility you left off?

This is probably the best answer you could've given. Null tell wasnt offered an option because: a. i dont think it is a null tell and b. null tell is a very easy cop-out answer. If you want me to explain why i dont think it's a null tell, i'll do so later in the game, or post-game. I'm willing to accept i might be wrong, but do you see why offering the cop-out is unhelpful and unconducive to discussion? This is why i didn't want you to respond first.

The fact Mastin backed down to DH is unbelievable...particularly given DH obviously doesnt believe in his own jargon lol.

Eh? I don't understand what you're saying, here. Mind clarifying? Seriously, that made no sense to me.

You backed down to DH's crap about the heads of a hydra being in agreement. I think that you know exactly how a hydra works, and could defend your position. Instead, you inexplicably tried to appease him, when it seemed hilariously evident that he didnt have conviction in his ridiculous attack.

BM

[Battle Mage]

huh. DRK. i'll have to fight the urge to vote him.

Battle Mage: today is DH or EPM. pick one.

haha No.

If you had to pick one which would you pick?

Ooh, is that a false dilemma? lol
I don't have to pick. Therefore, i'm not going to. Maybe you can deduce a preference from my posts so far? And then maybe you can offer a topic of conversation that is of some interest?

BM

[evilpacman18]

Dammit, if you're so bent on lynching one of two people without doing anything constructive today, flip a coin. Let's get on something new or get this over with. I have no reason to post the way this day is going.

[Calcifer]

Gah, I'm torn. One part of me says that EPM is obvious scum, the other part says Calcifer is doing exactly what he's accusing DGB of doing.
Instead of idling I'll get a vote down for something more definite.

vote: DemonHybrid

You mention EPM being obvious scum, and you call me a hypocrite. Then, you vote DH.
I thought you were town this game >.>

I want to know Guderian's role asap before I come to any definite conclusions.

What will Guderian flipping Tracker as opposed to Vanilla Townie tell you? That you have one less powerrole to worry about?

I'd bet my house on Calcifer being scum but I haven't like DH all game. So...

Unote

Vote: DH

Now here's a bet I would LOVE to take.
Although I wonder why you're backing down so soon.

OK. So you think that EPM is likely to be DGB's partner. What about the other team? I haven't seen any mention of your suspects for this.

Haven't thought about the other team, to be completely honest.
Off the top of my head, Parama and bvoigt would be my top 2.

I'm willing to accept i might be wrong, but do you see why offering the cop-out is unhelpful and unconducive to discussion?

Depends on what you're looking for.

You backed down to DH's crap about the heads of a hydra being in agreement. I think that you know exactly how a hydra works, and could defend your position. Instead, you inexplicably tried to appease him, when it seemed hilariously evident that he didnt have conviction in his ridiculous attack.

I'm not an asshole. When a game's suffering from a lot of inactivity and replacements and then ANOTHER person is threatening to replace out, sometimes you just have to swallow your pride.

Dammit, if you're so bent on lynching one of two people without doing anything constructive today, flip a coin. Let's get on something new or get this over with. I have no reason to post the way this day is going.

I have a few two-headed coins laying around here that I could flip.
And how the hell can you pretend like you're in a position to say something like this? What content have you been providing? What effort have you been making to make the lynch something OTHER than you?
NOTHING. ZILCH. NADA.

[Parama]

Gah, I'm torn. One part of me says that EPM is obvious scum, the other part says Calcifer is doing exactly what he's accusing DGB of doing.
Instead of idling I'll get a vote down for something more definite.

vote: DemonHybrid

You mention EPM being obvious scum, and you call me a hypocrite. Then, you vote DH.
I thought you were town this game >.>

And now I sense opportunism in that BM wants to start a wagon on me so you'll finally respond to what is, in game terms, an "old" post and try to call it a scumtell.
One part of me sees obvious EPMscum, the other part says Calcscum. Both parts say DH scum. This is exactly what my post says, in the same terms. I don't see how that makes me a hypocrite OR scum.

[DeathRowKitty]

Any objections to me sorting my catch-up post by thread page? No? Good. Also, I'm going to be typing as I'm reading the thread for the first time, so if my opinions seem to jump around a lot, that's why. (Edit while working on page 4: this post is turning out to be fairly dense with the links embedded into the paragraphs. In the not-unlikely event I don't catch up on the entire thread at once, I can try to spread things out a bit more in the next installment of my catching up if it would be easier to read.)

Page 1

Blah blah, mostly confirms. A boring confirmation period except for this typo, which actually made me lol. I'm going to assume Nacho's early vote wasn't particularly serious and give him half a town point for being willing to throw down a really crappy discussion-starting vote. Demon's vote immediately following Nacho seems interesting, but is probably null in the end. Not entirely sure since I've never played with him.

Page 2

Kind of hoping Demon wasn't serious about this. If he was, uhh....actually doesn't say much about his alignment. Sweet, we have our first overreaction of the game!

FoS Guderian

Why so touchy already when we're only on page 2? Ughhhh. Apparently he

was

serious. I hate reading people who get so worked up on nonsense cases. Also, ignore the FoS. I like Guderian's later page 2 posts better. Guessing Demon-Guderian is town on town, but not sure yet. If either is scum, I'd guess Demon.

Page 3

So it seems Nacho might be serious (this game needed more nonsense, right?) And what is with everyone trying to call scum teams by page 3? Do you actually think that so many scum have posted when only about half the players have?

FoS Parama

. Too confident for page 3 of a game in which several players haven't posted and too much based on scum team speculation. Early on, I would expect town to play more like they would in a single scum team game, whereas scum would have a specific team on their mind they're looking for. ender241 can get an

FoS

too for this. I'm tentatively giving some town points to tyler for this. Not quite sure why, but something about it seems town. Oh, and as far as setup speculation goes, 10-3-3 wouldn't surprise me. 12-2-2 seems pretty underpowered for scum, especially considering I've been in an 8-2-2 mountainous before (well, to be fair, I think all 4 scum were alive at the start of the final day-night cycle, but the fact that it probably wasn't horrendously imbalanced makes me think adding 4 more town to it would be bad, especially since we've already had a doc flip). Town points for EPM for his level-headed response here. It would have been too easy in this mess for scum to get nervous or desperate. ender gets some more scum points for this. Scum tend to enjoy setup speculation. It doesn't require them to take any stances and they enjoy knowing stuff the townies don't and want to share it. Hey, quote wars on page 3. Awesome! *skips over end of page* I don't see that argument being particularly fruitful. Demon has faded into more of a neutral-maybe-possibly-very-slightly scummy read.

Page 4

Aaaand nham joins the party. Minor town points for his first post of content. The angle he took in looking at the game feels town in some strange way. Lol. An awesome point or two for Tripod. Not quite as big a fan of nham's second post, but that was probably inevitable. I'm pretty much skipping over the quote walls again. I like the vote at the end of this post though. :thumbs up: I'm kind of seeing Demon as town at this point. I think that's all that changed on that page that I didn't mention yet. Oh, and Tripod is maybe sort of possibly town. We'll see.

Page 5

Glad Empking found plenty to comment on here. I know that's part of his play style and all, but it's stupid. Not sure whether or not he was right. I'm really hesitant to call not knowing there were 2 scum teams a scum tell though. I would be surprised if the scum role PM didn't say there were multiple mafia teams (it would make sense that it would, since the town one did). Seems like something that would come up in scum pre-game talk at some point and I doubt scum would be unaware of it. (Also, I didn't notice my role PM said 2 scum teams until someone pointed it out in thread. It's really not that hard to miss.) Parama comes back for a post and does nothing to alleviate suspicions of him. Well, maybe very slightly. I still consider him one of the scummiest thus far. Actually, on second thought....no, never mind, I have no second thought. I was lucky enough to have one! Fence sitting is fence.

FoS werewolf

. Meh at ender replacing out. I always hate it when someone I find scummy does that. I should probably point out now (and I just realized it) that I don't at all remember who I replaced and I figure there's no harm in not checking now. After I've posted this, I'll take a look and see what I've said about myself. iamausername can take a place on my prob-town list for this. I need clarification on this post. Mastin, did you know your role when you wrote that? Not sure what to make of werewolf. I can never tell if he's misguided town or scummyscumscum. Luckily, if memory serves me correctly, he's already dead (town doc, amirite?)

Page 6

Parama is starting to seem less scummy and more obnoxious around here. Does he always play like this?...actually, I just remembered I saw his day 1 play in an ongoing game in which he is now dead. Hello, Mr. Obnoxious. Nice to meet you again. I'm DeathRowKitty. /sigh.

Page 7

I'm glad don replaced someone who hadn't posted yet. I was nervous I might have accidentally had him as a town read because of his predecessor's actions As for his actual post, I'm calling it null for now. Maybe slightly town, as sick as it makes me to say that. To be honest, I'm ignoring most of Mastin's posting at this point. I have a town read on the slot for the time being and I don't think it would really be worth the time to try to trudge through a wall of text every time he decides to make a post.

Page 8

First impression of bvoigt is pretty null for me. Maaaaaybe slightly town, but I'd like more elaboration from him before drawing any conclusions on that. yesyesyesyeysyes my strongest scum read was scum ...okay, excitement over. We get chkflip's first real post. I wanted to call it townish for its seemingly even-handed perspective of the game, but it also gives me a bit of a feeling of someone looking down on the game, which seems more of a scum viewpoint. Could just be confidence though. Overall, slightly town, I guess. Hello Parama, start making useful posts, please and thank you.

---

Well, I'm almost halfway through the game and I think it's time I took a break. I'll probably be around for a couple more hours if there's anything anyone wants me to address, but I'm saving the other half of the thread for later. Oh, and...uhh...sorry for the wall of text. My posts usually aren't too long.

[DeathRowKitty]

Upon seeing who I replaced, bump chkflip up to obv-town in the above post

[Calcifer]

And now I sense opportunism in that BM wants to start a wagon on me so you'll finally respond to what is, in game terms, an "old" post and try to call it a scumtell.

Or the other part of the hydra is catching up on what he's missed, but nice effort though.
Why would I care about starting a wagon on you anyways?

One part of me sees obvious EPMscum, the other part says Calcscum. Both parts say DH scum. This is exactly what my post says, in the same terms. I don't see how that makes me a hypocrite OR scum.

How the hell did you expect me to discern this from your post...?

[Untrod Tripod]

trying to read this game makes my soul weep. here are my reads so far

scum:
nhammen

leaning scum:
calcifer
EPM

WTF:
Battle Mage

leaning town:
DRK
Parama

town:
iamusername

will give some reasons later

[Parama]

And what is with everyone trying to call scum teams by page 3? Do you actually think that so many scum have posted when only about half the players have?

FoS Parama

. Too confident for page 3 of a game in which several players haven't posted and too much based on scum team speculation. Early on, I would expect town to play more like they would in a single scum team game, whereas scum would have a specific team on their mind they're looking for.

I'd give you meta on this showing how I do this literally every game, but meta sucks so I'll just wait until my page 3 "guesses" turn out to be correct and you look like an idiot for calling me out on them.

How the hell did you expect me to discern this from your post...?

...
It's time for a rousing round of Old vs. New!

One part of me says that EPM is obvious scum

One part of me sees obvious EPMscum

the other part says Calcifer is doing exactly what he's accusing DGB of doing

the other part says Calcscum.

Instead of idling I'll get a vote down for something more definite.

vote: DemonHybrid

Both parts say DH scum.

The only one that I worded differently was the last one, but they mean the same thing.
So, my question:

HOW THE HELL COULDN'T YOU DISCERN THAT FROM MY POST?

[Parama]

ugh. broken tags. I hate them so much.

[DeathRowKitty]

I'd give you meta on this showing how I do this literally every game, but meta sucks so I'll just wait until my page 3 "guesses" turn out to be correct and you look like an idiot for calling me out on them.

I acknowledged later in my post that a lot of what I'd initially found you scummy for was probably play style. Just as a matter of curiosity, how often are your page 3 "guesses" right?

[Parama]

More often than I expect
There was one game where I caught one scum on page 1 and another scum on page 2. Fun times.

[bvoigt]

They both are, but it's who they vote for which is important. Iam votes for UT, which is a valid vote.
bv votes for a relatively-new player who is a little on the lurkerish side.

Which of those looks worse?

UT has lurked more than Tyler.

And that makes him a

less

valid vote?

Nah, I was just pointing out that Calcifer's point wasn't really true.

Also, I have a townread on Parama.

[DeathRowKitty]

Finishing my catch up post and hopefully putting a vote down. I'm likely going to ignore DGB's posts unless something really stands out as a possible connection. Ignoring Guderian and werewolf too, but they don't post quite so much.

Page 9

The spoilered section of Mastin's post made me look a bit closer at Ross's first post. I initially wasn't sure what to make of Ross's post (I don't think I even mentioned it in my first catch up post), so I'd pretty much ignored it. Actually, I just changed my mind. >.< I was about to say it was scummy (something about the setup speculating), but I don't actually think what he said was scummy. In fact, I agree with Mastin that it seems town (but not for the same reasons). Slight scum points for this, I guess.

Page 10

Speaking of bvoigt this is quite interesting. To be honest, I think he would more likely be a member of the non-DGB scum team than the DGB scum team, but it's still interesting. This looks like a vote based on differing opinions, rather than based on scumminess. Scum points to don (yayyyyyy!). bvoigt now takes to following others. If bvoigt knew werewolf was active and posting elsewhere, it seems weird it would only occur to him to bring it up after werewolf gained a couple of votes. bvoigt now my biggest scum read.

Page 11

Parama update: still obnoxious and now lining up lynches. Hesitant scum? Meh, Demon is all over the town-scum spectrum this game. I might need to do a separate reread of just him to sort him out. Don makes an interesting point about it I hadn't considered. Putting Demon into the scum pile for the moment.

Page 12

Another post from Demon I don't like. Seems like a strange time for him to suddenly be hesitant about his votes when he's been stupidly aggressive all game.

FoS DemonHybrid

. No idea what to make of this. Is it bad that I'm currently seeing that as a slight town tell? Scumhammer alert. Hello Demon. Welcome to my top scum spot. I do agree that there's likely scum on the wagon though. Not sure whether or not I agree with him about where. Parama's post seems fake. I still have him overall leaning town, but I really can't stand his play style. In fact, his play style gets its own separate paragraph at the end of this post. Lol. I really wish he didn't have to get modkilled for that (to be honest, I'm not sure he did need to, considering nothing was mentioned that couldn't be determined from looking at the thread, but meh).

Page 13

Lol.

Page 14

Scummy? Maybe? Mmmm, probably not. Keeping EPM as town for the moment. Also, we need to know Guderian's real role at some point. "Not mafia" is insufficient if we run into any claims later in the game....actually, Guderian was

probably

vanilla townie or at least some role with no active power. Haylen would have known his role if he'd had to send a night action. I still want to know though. What if he was a town two-shot doctor, for example?

Page 15

At first glance, it bothered me how fast the wagon seemed to build up on DemonHybrid. On second glance, it really isn't that fast and the votes don't seem particularly suspect. The back and forth between EPM and bvoigt seems really stupid. More scum points to bvoigt for this worthless post. Looks more like an excuse to attack him than a reason.

Page 16

So much for the RossWilliam spot. Meh. Oh, never mind, BM has since replaced in for him. Cool. His entrance is reading as town to me for the moment. No good reason to give for that really. It just feels that way. </3

Page 17

DRK's first post of content is obv-town. I won't be voting for him today.

---

I am now caught-up. As promised, a little something regarding Parama:

Spoiler: Parama's Play Style

Okay, I'm being completely blunt here because I'm pretty fed up with your posts: your play style isn't cute, pro-town, or any other positive adjective I can think of. It's obnoxious. It's annoying. It's anti-town.

Your defense that you play this way every game is pretty much meaningless. If I intentionally active lurk every game, would the fact that I do so every game make it any better? No. It makes it worse. The fact that you're sitting back saying "oh, don't worry, I always play like this" is stupid and the fact that most of your posts of 'content' boil down to "ffs, I said this person was scum, you should all be voting him because I said so" is arrogant and makes me want to attack you with a rake. It does not in any way make me want to vote your suspects.

I asked how accurate you are in your early reads to make a point. I think I may safely assume from your response that you tend to catch 1 scum like that in most minis. Let's say you start by choosing 3 players for a scum team and you're right about one of them. Assuming a 3 man scum team, the chances of you picking at least one correctly is 1 - (9C3)/(12C3), where nCr is the binomial coefficient. This comes out to 34/55, or almost 62%. Congratulations, your scumhunting is not special and I would appreciate it if you would get your head out of your ass long enough to recognize this and pretend you care about town winning, whatever your alignment may be.

I should probably put the disclaimer here that I don't dislike you as a person. I remember being in one of your early games on site and thinking you were quite pleasant to play with. You've since decided you'd rather be useless and arrogant and it would be much appreciated if you would make an effort to play in a pro-town way.

Vote: DemonHybrid

[DeathRowKitty]

Oh, and a little night kill speculation:

The DGB kill makes a lot of sense for a scum team. DGB is a dangerous scumhunter and was explicitly called town by at least 2 or 3 players. The Guderian kill, however, is more interesting.

Guderian was suspected by multiple players at various points throughout day 1 and, as far as I can remember, didn't make any particularly significant contributions to the game. My guess (yes, rampant speculation and such) is that the scum team that killed Guderian thought he was a member of the other scum team and didn't expect to be able to get him lynched in the near future. It might be worth looking into who suspected Guderian, especially if they can also be tied in some way to DGB.

/end speculation

[Parama]

I'm not active lurking in the slightest, so you must be thinking of someone else. Anywho...

[don_johnson]

i heart parama and drk.

[DeathRowKitty]

Active lurking isn't what I was objecting to. Not sure this is the place to argue about play style though. I just felt like I needed to at least bring it up.