Square Enix IV (GAME OVER)

[Kdub]

VOTE: vezok

I am in favor of this wagon.

[Kdub]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bunnylover
No mention in post 49 of Prana's vote, now he's saying it looks like obvious bandwagoning only after Magna points it out.

The DTM-avatar discussion seems like a pointless distraction, so I'm just going to ignore it.

RBT, any reason you didn't claim in your first post but decided to claim just now?

[Kdub]

RBT:
Fair enough.

Bunny:
If Prana's bandwagoning was so "obvious", I have to question why you ignored it initially until somebody else brought it up and started a wagon on him.

[Kdub]

@Kdub: I didn't ignore it. I'm just not confident. I constantly question myself if my thinking process is right or wrong. So when I saw MoI post, my mind was ease since I knew that I wasn't the only one thinking the same thing.
You'll notice in my play that I don't become bold with my post until I am frustrated or aggravated.

The problem is, playing this way looks a lot like scum trying to make up revisionist excuses to justify their votes, so you'll excuse me if I choose the simpler explanation that you are scum.

Starbuck is the current leader in "most posts with zero relevance" in the game. Just saying.

---

Vote Count:

Fate: 4

(Dutch one, rewq455, bv310, Zodiark13)

PranaDevil: 3

(MagnaofIllusion, Nero Cain, BunnyLover)

MagnaofIllusion: 3

(Riceballtail, PranaDevil, DTMaster)

Zodiark13: 2

(Reckamonic, Fate)

Dutch one: 1

(Chronopie)

KDub: 1

(Midnight's Sorrow)

BunnyLover: 1

(KDub)

Chronopie: 1

(Iecerint)

Not Voting:

Starbuck
vezokpiraka

Lynch:

10 votes.

Deadline:

February 8th - 7:00 AM EST

[Kdub]

Magna:
I wasn't accusing Starbuck of being scum, I was more interested to see if she had any actual thoughts on the game.

Fate, what is your opinion of Bunnylover? I think that what you are accusing Zodiark of doing (ignoring something that he later calls scummy) is pretty much exactly what I am voting Bunny for.

Dutch, your last post is horrid.

Meta isn't valid in 90% of games

, and you're trying to excuse your lurking because you don't have enough of it?

I don't believe you have expressed this opinion about meta in all the games I've seen you in. In fact, I thought you cited meta reasoning yourself at some point in SE3. Can you show me some past games where you have discredited meta before?

[Kdub]

To be honest, I doubt I could. I'd have to go through every one of my games. If I did use it, it was probably in a very specific case, or on someone who's very predictable (like Gandalf5166. He ALWAYS busses D1. He can't help himself)

Just checked this, and you did make a case on bill for lurking in SE3 (when you were town) but you were hesitant about it because you weren't sure if it was his scum meta or not. Not sure if I'm buying this explanation. At best, it's a poor reason to attack Dutch.

[Kdub]

Iec and Fate aren't lovers, he's just acting like a nervous townie to lose votes.

First he votes for himself, so it appeares that he doesn't care.

And now he claims to be lovers. He's just joking

So when Fate does it, it's "acting" to lose votes, but when you do it, it's...?

[Kdub]

VOTE: Bunnylover

I don't see any reason to change my vote from yesterday. bv is probably scum too.

[Kdub]

Upon a reread and further thought, I am going to
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Midnight

The speed of the back end of the Zodiark wagon and the Battousai wagon is giving me a bad taste. Even more curious is that nobody is calling out Chrono (including those who suspect him) for quickhammering before getting a claim from Zodiark.

Final Day 1 Vote Count:

Zodiark13: 10

(Reckamonic, Iecerint, vezokpiraka, PranaDevil, Katsuki,

MagnaofIllusion, bv310, Fate, Midnight's Sorrow, Chronopie

)

Vote Count:

Battousai: 6

(Fate, PranaDevil,

Katsuki, vezokpiraka, Reckamonic, Midnight's Sorrow

)

The names bolded above are more likely to be bandwagoning scum based on the timing of their votes and reasoning (or lack thereof). MS is the only name on both lists.

[Kdub]

Prana:
Dutch was starting to gain some steam on D1, but it was Magna's vote that really turned it around and started the rush of votes that led to Zodiark's lynch, so I put the cutoff there. As for Batt's wagon, I felt the same way about Katsuki's vote opening the floodgates. Do you disagree with that assessment?

Not sure how I feel about Chrono "not counting" votes. As scum, he'd have to figure he would draw some heat for that.

Fate:
I'm going to assume the setup is either 12/3/3 or 12/5/1, so 6 scum (most reasonable guess given multiple NKs). My scum picks: Midnight, Bunny, bv. I need 3 more, so I'll go with gut and say Magna, Reck, DTM. If I'm not allowed to have null reads, you can assume anyone I didn't list is a "town" read.

[Kdub]

Fate:
OK then, if null reads are not allowed, then my town list will be Kdub (obv), Nero, Prana, Chrono, vezok, Fate, Starbuck, Battousai, RBT, Katsuki, Iec.

I have an idea of where Fate might be going with this, so I'll wait to see what he comes up with before I pass judgement on his request.

[Kdub]

Battousai, to answer your question about vezok, I assumed he was messing around so I didn't think much of the claim. The "daykill" did not appear serious to me at that stage of the game, and I figured vezok thought the same way.

I suspected that Fate might have some sort of modified lie-detector ability based on his request. I don't seem scum pulling this sort of gambit, so I'm pretty sure he's town. Fate, are you calling Prana and Battousai scum based on their refusal to comply, or do you have actual role-information that they are scum?

[Kdub]

Kdub- vezok brought it up multiple times, and when the mod said vezok was still alive, Vezok claimed that he thought he was killed. This proves that he wasn't joking around, but actually thought or pretended to think that he died. Now take that into consideration and tell me if that is scummy.

I don't find it scummy. Have you played with vezok before?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Reckamonic

If this works the way I think it does, MS is scum too.

[Kdub]

Fate, did your ability tell you that it is absolutely confirmed that Reck is scum, or is it just probable?

[Kdub]

In that case, people shouldn't even be arguing with Fate about his ability, because we're going to find out anyway whether it is real or not. If Reck flips town, then obviously Fate has some explaining to do.

From what I can see, Fate has the equivalent of a cop guilty on Reck. Unless there is some very compelling reason to believe that Reck is likely to be town, lynching him is the play today.

[Kdub]

Are we asking Reck to fullclaim in his next post? Because that seems like the next step today that will actually accomplish something.

[Kdub]

Some things of note:

Iecerint's character is from a non-SE game.

There was no flavor in Reck's flip that suggests multiple scum teams. In SE I and III, each mafia group had a specific name. I'm thinking there is only one mafia group and an SK.

GummyBear's death flavor, "leaves", is the only one different from the rest, who have been "destroyed". He also flipped immediately, whereas DTM still hasn't flipped. There is some mechanic that we still don't understand yet that is more complicated than just a one-day delayed reveal..

Based on Fate's result on Reck's list, I'm going to go with my top suspicion from that list.

VOTE: Midnight

[Kdub]

I just checked and the lists do show that Batt is referring to Bunny as the second dead scum. bv didn't even post a serious list.

I think Batt is only at L-2, but just to be safe, I'll hold off on voting for the moment. I am willing to hammer though.

Battousai, claim please.

[Kdub]

1) The player I am linked to with a killing ability (alignment unknown)'s results will no longer be janitored.

Do you know who this player is?

2) No town PR will be successful

Agree with Chrono, this seems like an unlikely mechanic. If true, it's insanely swingy at best.

[Kdub]

Fate can you use your power again today?

[Kdub]

Massclaim is probably right since it appears Prana may have been correct about the scum having multiple kills. I may have more to say, but I'll wait until after the claims. Are we going to popcorn it after Kat?

[Kdub]

Let's not comment on the claims yet until everyone has gone.

[Kdub]

I am Yu Hayakawa, VT.

Midnight's Sorrow is next.

Nero, depends how important it is. Use your best judgment.

[Kdub]

After Fate claims, I would like Nero to explain in detail how his ability works.

[Kdub]

There were 3 kills on N1, and nobody has claimed a pro-town killing role. Unless there are 3 anti-town factions (unlikely), then the setup was probably a single scumgroup of 3, but each one gets a kill every night, which fits in with the rest of the evidence (2 kills after Reck's death, similar kill flavors, no evidence from Reck's flip of distinction between specific scum groups).

Reading the flavor text (that was added AFTER Batt's lynch...), Batt's role of Schala is clearly an enabler for Lavos. Fate's role of Tidus (as an enabler for Sin presumably) fits in with that. If we assume each scum has an enabler, I find the suggestion of 3 enablers that can un-janitor kills PLUS 3 grave robbers to be overkill. The disagreement between Nero and Chrono over how their role works is suspicious as well. I'm thinking that one of them is scum and we likely only have two grave robbers. That's why I want Nero to explain in detail how his role works, and I'd like to hear what Chrono has to say in response after he does that.

Katsuki's claim is odd because goldslime is a generic monster rather than a specific character. However, the bulletproof claim doesn't really make sense for a scum fakeclaim because there aren't any town killing roles, so why would a scum need to be bulletproof, and why risk that claim when VT would have drawn less attention?

Fate, can you use your lie detector again today?

[Kdub]

That's not much detail. What does the "hated" part of "hated grave robber" imply?

[Kdub]

Fate, is there any flavor reason given in your role PM why Tidus has a lie detector ability?

[Kdub]

Hated also means miller, in addition to the one less vote to lynch.

Nero, do you confirm this? Why didn't you mention it earlier if true?

Now Katsuki is claiming some new ability?

...

When we massclaimed, you were supposed to claim your ENTIRE role unless you had a very specific reason not to.

[Kdub]

I asked you to provide detail on your claim and you didn't give all the info. You don't get a pass by saying, "Hey, those guys are claiming new stuff too!" But I'll tell you why I find Chrono to be more credible than you right now. He immediately claimed his target, which you didn't do, and quickly volunteered himself to be lie-detected by Fate. You also "forgot" how your role worked, and your excuse seems shaky. Although Chrono did not initially claim the miller thing, he was the first to bring it up unprompted later, and you appear to confirm that it is true. In that case, if you are town, you must believe that either Chrono is telling the truth, or that he was specifically given the grave robber role as a scum safeclaim. Which is it?

You and Chrono are possibly both town, but if not, I'd pick Chrono as town over you right now.

[Kdub]

In that case, if you are town, you must believe that either Chrono is telling the truth, or that he was specifically given the grave robber role as a scum safeclaim. Which is it?

Things aren't always A and B. There's a plethora of roles where he could find out mine. In fact there's even one that pretty much is a grave robber [and no its not a grave digger] He could just be liar scum and claiming GR b/c he knew there was another out there.

I don't think you understood what I meant. Your role name itself (Hated Grave Robber) implies nothing about a miller. If you are telling the truth about your role, the only way Chrono could have known about the miller thing is that either 1) he has that info in his role PM (meaning he is telling the truth), 2) he was specifically given a scum safeclaim PM that had that info, 3) he has some sort of scum investigative ability that allowed him to see info inside your role PM as opposed to a standard rolecop ability, or 4) he randomly guessed about the miller thing and got extremely lucky. I think you would agree that 3 and 4 are unlikely. I was scum in SE1 and Kise only gave us what were essentially VT safeclaim PMs, so I have doubts that he would have given scum a specific PR safeclaim that would match an actual town role. It's not impossible, but I think it's improbable.

But I still want you to answer this today so you'll be held to it. When I flip town grave robber what will you do. Will you go after Chrono or believe that he's town?

It would depend on what other info might have been revealed, but I'm feeling pretty good about Chrono as town right now, regardless of your alignment. Whatever we decide today, I think we need to direct you and/or Chrono to flip certain players at night, both to prove your ability and to give the town more control over what info is revealed.

Also @Kdub Do believe Fate's claim of Enabler WITH a lie detect?

I thought the idea of Tidus as a lie detector seemed a bit suspect from a flavor standpoint, but I don't see anything fundamentally wrong with an enabler with an additional ability. In addition, the rest of Fate's enabler claim, along with Reck's flip as Sin, fits with the Schala as a Lavos-enabler theory, and he did use his ability to catch scum, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I need to think more about Katsuki's claim. Taken at face value, it's a pretty bad claim (BP + flavor inconsistency + not revealing her full abilities), but I still question why she, as scum, would make such a risky claim when i wasn't necessary for her to do so. Katsuki, if there is anything more to your role that you aren't sharing with us, please claim

everything

.

[Kdub]

Fate, does your enabler role say that if you die, all future kills from that particular player will no longer be janitored, or does it apply to all people previously killed by that player as well?

[Kdub]

Nero, before I respond to the first part of your post, I would like you to paraphrase the description of your role in your role PM, including the 1-less-vote-to-lynch and miller part. I had a mini-revelation as I was looking over something that may clear things up.

Yes b/c bussin' is soooooooo impossible.

This is pretty much a strawman. Of course bussing is possible. That's why Fate catching scum is

evidence

in his favor (along with the flavor evidence), not absolute proof.

[Kdub]

Does it just say investigations in general, or does it specify certain types of investigations?

[Kdub]

OK then. The reason I asked is because when you said this:

A grave digger is a miller variant.

I was like "???", but I checked the wiki, and you are correct. I had thought "grave digger/robber" was an alternate version of the forensic investigator role and referred to your claimed ability to flip dead players, but it actually is a miller variant. Now that I see that this is what you were referring to with your earlier post, I concede that it's possible that Chrono made up the miller thing on his own. I think his use of the word "miller" instead of "false" is understandable, but it would be nice if he could confirm what you said and explain his choice of words.

Miller without a cop is fairly common. Multiple millers without a cop is a bit strange, but that appears to be the case.

Fate can you answer this?:

Fate, does your enabler role say that if you die, all future kills from that particular player will no longer be janitored, or does it apply to all people previously killed by that player as well?

[Kdub]

NP Fate, I was just wondering if we could try to narrow down the possibilities if we assume a 3rd enabler was one of the unflipped dead people, but it seems like that isn't the case.

I have an idea.
Let's force kdub to hammer katsuki. This way we get rid of him and in case he is supersaint we lose someone who we wanted to lynch. If he is telling the truth it's not like the scum wanted to him kdub anyway.

If we decide to lynch Katsuki, I'd be fine with this if that's what people want to do.

If Katsuki actually is telling the truth about her role, then vezok is very probably scum for suggesting this. As scum, he would have to know that I was telling the truth about being a VT, so he lets me get the kill immunity and leaves his team free to kill off PRs at night. If Kat is actually a scum supersaint, then conversely, vezok is probably town.

Kat, why did your opinion on vezo change from "no read" in 747 to "is scum" in 770? I still don't understand your reason for not claiming the NK-immunity-granting ability. If you were worried about it going to the right person, why would you NOT just claim it up front?

This game needs more posting from MS.

[Kdub]

Kat, why did your opinion on vezo change from "no read" in 747 to "is scum" in 770? I still don't understand your reason for not claiming the NK-immunity-granting ability. If you were worried about it going to the right person, why would you NOT just claim it up front?

Look at vezok's last 3 posts. Also look at his "kat is fake-claiming supersaint" to "I believe kat supersaint", despite there being no mention of supersaint.

Except vezok's posts about the supersaint stuff came before 747, when you claimed to have no read on him. Oops. Still no good explanation for not claiming your extra ability either.

You are right about one thing though. Chrono and Nero need to claim who they will be flipping tonight. I'm thinking Bunny and Prana flips would give the most info.

MS and Kat's recent interaction strikes me as hastily arranged bussing.

I'm feeling confident enough now to go for a Katsuki lynch today. No lynching until we hear from Chrono and Nero, and when we figure out who should hammer.

[Kdub]

Does it actually matter who hammers Katsuki anymore? If someone hammers her and she actually is a SS (meaning that she is lying scum), it's pretty damn near confirmed that MS is scum based on his behavior.

Going to think about it a bit more.

[Kdub]

OK, here's what I'm pretty sure of:

If MS is scum, then Katsuki must be scum. If Kat were town, then scum-MS would have no reason to NOT go along with hammering her because he would know Kat was telling the truth.
If Kat is a scum SS, then MS is almost certainly scum.

So here's what I'm thinking. MS is unwilling to hammer Kat. Chrono and Nero are getting the chance to prove their abilities tonight. If she actually is a scum SS, then the person who hammers dies, but we will have caught MS so it doesn't matter. If she is scum but not SS, nothing happens and we can play tomorrow like normal with whatever new info we get from flips. If she is telling the truth and is town, well we might be screwed anyway, but the person who hammers her would be protected. Based on this, I think the most objectively pro-town looking person among me, Fate, and vezok should hammer. That way, that person would get protected in the event that Kat is town. From an outside point of view, it should probably be Fate, but there seems to be enough suspicion of him from others that maybe we should discuss it.

Thoughts?

[Kdub]

If MS is scum, why WOULDN'T he want to hammer you unless you were scum as well? If you really are town and he is scum, he must know you are telling the truth about your ability, right?

[Kdub]

If I wasn't already so positive you were the second scum, I would almost have cause to add to my suspicions of you for

your blatant 'lining up the lynch the next day' shenanigans

your trying to pull off as a,

oh so clever

, concerned Townie.

Explain the bolded please. If I were trying to "line up the lynch" tomorrow by making connections between you and Kat, doesn't that imply that you or she will flip scum? Otherwise, it doesn't really work, does it?

[Kdub]

You don't see the problem with what you wrote, then you refuse to explain it? Along with your refusal to hammer someone who you supposedly think is scum, I see no reason why a townie would play in the manner you are playing.

An MS lynch is probably as good as a Kat lynch today anyway since Kat is definitely scum if MS flips scum.

VOTE: MS

[Kdub]

Didn't see Chrono-scum coming. Then again, I didn't see MS-town coming either.

The setup seems highly swingy with the number of kills flying around. It's pretty hard to catch 2 mafia in a group of 18, especially with limited-reveal. Then again, it's possible for the scum to have been screwed on N1 if the investigations had worked out differently.

Oh well. I had a bad game. Town as a whole had a bad game. Shake it off.

...and sign up for the next game please (which will open signups as soon as I get posting privileges)

edit: There we go

[Kdub]

Seriously.

This shouldn't come as a shock to anyone who's played with me or seen me play, anymore.

I'm usually not one to strongly criticise players for playing badly, considering I was not so great this game myself, but I have absolutely no clue why anybody, as a vanilla townie, would have refused to unvote and hammer Katsuki on D4. Town would have lost anyway, but I think you should focus on trying to improve your town game instead of justifying objectively scummy play with, "I always play that way".

[Kdub]

Kise, the link in your sig needs updating