Mini 1075 - Fishtown Mafia

[neko2086]

I am not in favor of a no-lynch, for the reasons given by Rhinox. Massclaim at this point is probably a good idea, and since corv started and named emp to go next, that seems like a good way to go.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok then, Emp next, popcorn

unvote

[Empking]

VT

Llama

[LlamaFluff]

also VT

Haylen/cruelty

[Fishythefish]

Day 4, votecount 5

Haylen (2) - neko2086, Rhinox
corvuus (2) - Nocmen, Empking
Empking (1) - corvuus

Not Voting (3) - Haylen, DavidParker, LlamaFluff

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

[Haylen]

I'm VT too.

Nocmen.

[Nocmen]

VT.

DP

[DavidParker]

I'm a VT.

Who's left? Rhinox!

(Leaving neko last?)

[Rhinox]

VT as well.

And I think neko is last.

[neko2086]

VT.

Still three days to deadline?

[LlamaFluff]

Given the claims, here is what I have on what I think happened during N1.

My thoughts based on the EOD yesterday are that

fallenangel, nocmen, and havingfitz are scum suspects

. The latter 2 were both around during deadline posting yet didn't hammer. The fact that nobody hammered fallen angel at all is telling to me. Again I just skimmed but unless the empking case gathered more steam than just "HE WANTED A MASSCLAIM AUTOSCUM" then I say fitz looks the worst out of this.

Empking's case is a classic opportunity for scum to jump on and mislynch.

Nocmen's change of vote to a wagon that obviously wasn't going to gather steam 20 hours before deadline is also telling.

Says FA, Noc, fitz are scummy - Possible blocked players, more importantly, not protected.
Emp shows up as a possible protected player here given that he is a town read.

Singer's vote on Emp is pretty bad, and it's even worse that he unvotes and panders to Antihero's analysis. Looks like he wants to avoid any conflict and just backs down from the vote to avoid that.

Another player that was obviously not gone for as a 'protected' player. Brings down the called out protected pool to essentially just Emp.

SB votes Corvuss though, meaning that if someone was gone for as a block, it was him. This eliminates Noc or singer as the targeted player. We have to remember that it would have been AD and not SB submitting the protection however, which actually makes Emp look like he would have been a block instead of a save in the mind of AD.

So I think that leaves it at either a block of Corvuss, or what may have happened, a protection of Rhinox (I say Rhinox because he seemed to be a town read of AD). I just am not sure of what really. I would like to think that AD made the smart move and saved instead of blocked, but he could easily have been self-absorbed enough to try and block Corv, but I really think he would have blocked Emp given his reads.

So I think Rhinox was the save over night one, outside but small chance Emp was saved/killed, but the reaction from SB points away from this. I dont think that Corv was blocked since it doesnt match up with what AD was thinking, even though we see the latching on reaction from SB the next day. Was really hoping we had some sort of other role to give us another cleared-ish, but when added to my current reads, I think it means SB protected Rhinox the first night.

Either way I see zero chance that the target was not Rhinox, Emp or Corv, and the chance of Corv is near neglegable. Would say something like 70-29-1 for odds.

Will probably vote for the cruelty/antihero/haylen spot. Need to do a little more reading though first. Have the game skimmed but still want to get a closer read done. Tonight should be a great chance to do that.

[DavidParker]

I don't think the JK speculation will help tremendously.. Mostly because the player could have been either protected or stopped from killing. Even if we figured out who he targeted that doesn't get us all too far.

Vote: Emp

[Corvuus]

Llama:
1. AD was around for day 1 and night 1. He replaced out day 2 so presumably AD submitted the action for night 1.
2. AD was after EMP's lynch the ENTIRE day 1 and voted FA at the end of the day since he didn't want a no lynch.
Your thought process and choice of order is highly confusing... especially since you quote SB when you are trying to discuss night 1 when SB didn't even exist. I will also call in to question whether SB even understood what JK role is in terms of blocking/protecting and whether he thought AD targeted EMP in order to protect him as opposed to blocking him. I've considered AD and SB for a while (i made a small post way back) and I can not figure out who they might have or would have targetted since AD and SB are fairly opposite in their choices. AD was extremely pro-EMP lynch while SB was a total flip, felt EMP was town (I disagree with SB's reasonings) and his word choice, thoughts and reflection after his flip didn't help me figure out what the heck he or AD were doing.

I will also note that AD/SB's night actions for night 2 are relatively meaningless. He was the night kill and thus whoever he may have chosen to protect doesn't matter, and whoever he may have chosen to block, wasn't the one who submitted the night kill. The only 'blatantly simple' line drawing we could say in terms of blocking is that AD may have blocked EMP night 1 (and EMP submitted kill?) or AD protected someone (Rhinox is an example) resulting in no kill for night 1. One could argue that AD would block me since I didn't die from no lynch but I think him blocking his "EMP-obvious-scum" more likely.

For night 2, SB may have blocked me (who he voted for) or protected whoever he thought was town (EMP is an example) and he was killed night 2.

Is this what you are trying to say?

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At any rate, I truly believe that AD targeted EMP to block him. EMP is scum, got blocked. SB didn't understand this (JK role) or believed (like you do Llama) that it is better to protect than to block. So SB takes AD as protecting EMP despite the strangeness of AD trying to protect EMP, that, plus the 'no night kill' makes SB think EMP is certified town since there should be no reason for scum to submit a 'no kill' day 1. He then highlights this as everyone voting for EMP is scum, and says there is no case (despite there being a case on EMP, etc. etc.). SB basically only makes 1 post (iso #2) with the rest calling into question other people he thinks are 'scummy' with them being the people who voted EMP. i.e. HF, myself and who 'let the no lynch' happen and he focuses mainly on HF, Noc, DP. I didn't understand how SB could be like this (unless he was a EMP scumbuddy) but him being a town power role with a false confirmation bias on EMP makes more sense for what SB tried to do.
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Why are we not lynching EMP?

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I will also note that I find it strange that everyone claimed VT and in particular, I would like explanation from Rhinox. You were adamant that EMP is town in earlier days to the point where you said that you absolutely wouldn't agree to an EMP lynch. Why?

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I half-expected scum to try to power role claim but apparently they got called out early (*cough* EMP *cough*) or were afraid they'd screw it up/get called on the bs of it all.

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My time for the next few days is going to be slightly sporadic so I'm going to keep my vote on EMP. I'm not sure on a haylen-lynch but Haylen is a 2nd choice for me given EMP's response and voting patterns.... however, the likelihood of them both being scum and not voting each other to get yet another no lynch in deadline is a possibility. So I will check in and if needed, vote for Haylen. I strongly think a EMP lynch should happen first though.

Corvuus

[LlamaFluff]

@Corv - If you look at AD, he probably blocked Emp if he was going for a scum target, or protected Rhinox if he was going for a town target. To explain the theory you want to target town until one alive since to hit scum you have to hit the RIGHT scum, not just ID scum. To get a save you just need to protect the most pro-town player. He never got a chance to crumb the next day. SB opened with a vote of you, and called Emp kinda-town, altnough not all that much, making me think that it wasnt his target. I think if he targeted Emp, he would have had a much greater opinion of him. While he didnt submit the night one action, he still knew what it was, and his result. I could see an Emp target, but I dont think he was.

[DavidParker]

Yeah, i'm surprised by the lack of PR's.. Scum either claimed early in the mass claim, or maybe (and quite likely it seems) we are dealing with a 2 scum game. (it was an 11p game after all).

However, having JK as our only PR is quite something... It is WIFOM'y but a scum claiming late may have gone for a PR...

[LlamaFluff]

First off, I think that Empking is town for meta reasoning. I just sent something to the mod asking if I can use the meta that supports it since its not the normal type. While I think massclaim would not have worked in this game due to a competent mod, I do think that an early one may have merit with someone who is a poor mod. Either way, meta does support him being town, this meta may not have surfaced until around day two/three in the game, but it exists.

Anyways... on to my main point

Vote Haylen

Early on we have cruelty latch onto Empking for creating WIFOM, which he decides that Emp must be scum for, due to WIFOM reasons

for me, it boils down to the fact that empking is experienced and has history which suggests competence. the issue, therefore, is whether or not an experienced, competent player would suggest an illogical course of action.

Game progresses, he does not, eventually we end up with the admittance that his vote is weak

regardless, this situation IS wifom and i can't really endorse empking's lynch based solely on his massclaim idea. i'm not going to unvote because i think that right now the only other viable lynch candidate is DP and i'm not willing to lynch for stupidity

So about halfway through the game the best things that he can give us are WIFOM siding that someone is scum for suggesting a massclaim (again meta from Emp says towntell), and someone maybe being stupid or just scum. Then again that is just him saying that DP is scum because he is not justifying his town reads.

More importantly he continues to base all of his contributions to the game on WIFOM. If you look through his posts, its a reoccuring theme to get people more interested in this debate then it is to do some actual scumhunting. The extent of hunting that occured for non-cruelty people is that he is attack

Eventually he drops the "case" on Empking and throws up some buddying reads to Ingoc and Rhinox, although makes sure to say that he does not view them as town persay. There also is suspicion of AD, singer and nocmen that appears to have come out of left field, since this is his first time even mentioning them over the entire game. This eventually turns into a very weak vote on singer who seemed to be taking a shot at DP more then actually doing anything scummy.

That was it for cruelty. He aruged WIFOM for most of the game while getting an annoyed-scummish read over DP, suddenly called people taking heat scum near the end of the day and just threw his vote on one as deadline showed up with poor justification.

[Fishythefish]

Day 4, votecount 6

Haylen (3) - neko2086, Rhinox, LlamaFluff
corvuus (2) - Nocmen, Empking
Empking (2) - corvuus, DavidParker

Not Voting (1) - Haylen

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline in 2 days.

[neko2086]

DP, I'm still wondering whose votes you were counting on for an Emp-lynch yesterday.

Haylen, there are two days left. Why are you not voting? Also, do you have an opinion on anyone else but Corv? He's really the only person you've mentioned as a possible scum candidate thus far, and as far as I can tell, the reasoning is rather weak. Why is it you can't get a read on Emp? He would have been next in your player analyses, and that's where you stopped.

I don't like your second to last post at all. You say you don't like being suspected due to your predecessors' actions, yet you were happy to analyse FA's actions when building your one and only case this game. Additionally, you're happy to suspect I'm town because of Incog's play. I agree that it's a tough part of replacing, but that's just something that has to be dealt with, and I don't like how you brought it up as though we should disregard your predecessors' play. I also don't really care what happened in the last game that this happened, as it's pretty irrelevant.

I'm happy to keep my vote here, except for the fact that LGFL is now on the wagon, though I can't help but feel like it might be bussing. Also, my MA exams are tomorrow, so I have very little time to think about this game between now and deadline, so Haylen is where I'm keeping my vote. I feel fairly confident about this, though, and feel confident enough we won't wind up with another no-lynch today. I'll check the game, but I don't plan to move my vote unless absolutely necessary (or unless Haylen has really good answers, though I think her play is pretty straightforwardly unexcusable)

[Corvuus]

Llama: I'll guess we will just find out what happened at the end of the game.

As a sidenote, a 11p game with only a JK is balanced to me but not that usual.

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I am pressed for time and an EMP lynch (again) doesn't look that likely. I honestly can not understand why people think his meta or actions or anything strike them as town. If i'm wrong, then well, I'm wrong but this whole EMP is town due to 1 singular massclaim action is ... mindboggling to me.

I'm keeping my vote on EMP for now but either later tonight or tomorrow morning i will be switching my vote to Haylen. Haylen is VLA on weekends, deadline is on weekend, so whatever you may want to say or do, feel free to do it now Haylen. If Haylen flips scum, then I strongly recommend people re-consider EMP as a potential scumbuddy especially because of the interaction and voting pattern there.

Corv

[LlamaFluff]

Given that i have the goahead from the mod to post this meta, its why Emp is town.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... =5&t=15876

Emp makes a thread about the possible town advantages of an early massclaim in mini-normal games. In this game, he is trying to have an early massclaim. Unless he made a MD thread with the sole intention of getting town cred in one game, it means that he is more likely town trying to prove his point.

He submits other games as evidecnce, and lists of reasons as to why town benifits from this occuring. I really cant see him making a large MD thread to help him look town in one game, occams razor says he is town who attempted to show the forum that massclaim works.

He is not town for the call for massclaim without this meta. With it though, I just cant see him being scum trying to snow us. If it was anyone else in the game, it wouldnt apply, but its not. Also seriously, when was the last time you saw Emp be this active in discussion? Thats a major towntell for most players like him already.

[Corvuus]

Your argument isn't a very good one and it doesn't convince me at all that EMP is town or that it is a meta to show him as town. Actually, I want to keep my vote on EMP more now than ever.

I'm just going to type this and so if it doesn't make sense... well... i guess fill in the blanks or use your imagination.
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Conjecture: EMP wants to show massclaim is viable in mini-normal games.
Ignoring arguments for a 'control' group where EMP is not in the game itself and someone else were to do massclaim (i.e. a real experiment) we can say that EMP believes it a viable strategy and infer from the mafia discussion post.

Assertion: EMP would want to make the best massclaim in order to show it's viability and usefulness and we should be able to assume this from the fact that he made a mafia discussion topic on it. So regardless, he at least feels it is viable.

My main point is: Feels it is 'viable'. Keep this in mind.

-------------------------
Sidenotes: This is regarding massclaiming in this game alone and just personal opinion. Feel free to skip this.
Assumed 'Facts':
1. Assuming everyone is telling the "truth" and that there are no remaining town aligned power roles, massclaim would have been VTs and AD/SB claiming JK (if at all) since, according to EMP's own hypothesis, scum would be pressured and unlikely to try to fake claim early day 1... and if they did do so, it could/should 'blow up in their face' late game. So assuming all townies tell the truth, and all scum claim VT, the massclaim day 1 and today would have played out similarly. This is debatable but is most probable.

2. Given the above claiming, is there any benefit that town could have gained from massclaiming day 1? I.e. AD/SB claim JK, everyone else claimed VT. This is kind of debatable but for the most part massclaiming day 1 would most likely not have strongly helped or hurt town in this case since JK is a balanced role and no millers or anything else was presented. Knowing to leave AD/SB alone for 1 night (and then watching them die) wouldn't have strongly helped or hurt town since JK is fairly balanced and not 'overpowered' as the days go on.

I don't want to get into massclaiming (mafia discussion type) so I will just leave it at that. I don't believe massclaiming would have helped or hurt this town but that is just my personal opinion for this specific town and setup. In a few of the examples EMP gave, i could see how town could have a slight advantage but, again, that is betting on setup types.

------------------------

At any rate, presumably LF (and EMP in his mafiadiscussion forum post) are trying to argue that massclaim day 1 is viable.

I actually do not have a problem with that. I said it when I replaced in and I repeated it a few times, that suggesting massclaim day 1 (and even meaning it) does not bother me.

My problem is HOW EMP did it, what he said in terms of optimization, strategy and how his massclaiming day 1 was utterly fail and runs counter to his post, hypothesis and conjecture.

1st of all: Assuming EMP really wants a massclaim. That doesn't bother me. In day 1, many players (HF, Fenhl's predecessor are the main ones in my mind) called him out on it and said that it was scummy, he is scum and that his massclaim day 1 idea is stupid. There were arguments as to how much EMP actually "meant" his idea or if it was just "reaction-fishing" or what not.

EMP's main reasoning and argument for wanting to lynch FA was that FA supported massclaim. What is this and how does it make sense? First of all, FA did not support massclaim anywhere near as strong as EMP, Rhinox and others verbally/literally stated and FA's comment was just that he thought EMP was town for suggesting massclaim idea and he resisted HF/Fenhl's predecessors call to arms to lynch EMP based on massclaim. That is my first problem with EMP from when I replaced in was his vote, view of FA and how he lied/misrepresented what was happening.

2nd of all: Assuming EMP is town and just really screwed up his mafia discussion idea, well that also doesn't bother me. Town screws up and does stupid things all the time. My problem with EMP was that instead of using his massclaiming idea as a 'reaction-fishing', get reads on players, and you know, scumhunt, his response was mainly 1. vote for whoever was voting for him, which also happened to coincide with players who hated his massclaim suggestion, 2. vote for FA which doesn't make sense since FA *defended* EMP (and unfortunately helped defeat the wagon), wasn't the leading wagon and he has basically gained absolutely NOTHING from his actions in day 1. Seriously, EMP says I am still one of his main scum suspects yet his arguments and reasoning for it as not changed at all and he has still, previously and perhaps in the future, argued that FA was scum due to massclaim (which is amusing in terms of lies), argued that FA/Corv is scum since FA/Corv hasn't died (but at this point, it isn't a strong argument especially if he is going to claim there are only 2 scum and HF, singer are both town.). As a sidenote: In terms of conspiracy theories regarding 'no lynch', at what point did EMP (and others) think that there were only 2 scum in a 11 player game? I mean, was there any new information gained? 11 players, oh ok, only 2 scum. Well if it is clear now, why wasn't this clear back in day 1 when claiming FA was scum for surviving?

Ugh, getting distracted. My main point (which was my main argument in previous days as well) wasn't that he should be lynched for suggesting massclaim. My problem was with his actions, how he did it, why wouldn't EMP-town try to optimize massclaim-reaction-fish and how he utterly failed in his massclaim (if he was seriously suggesting it), how he was blatantly not scumhunting or using it to any town-advantage, and how he targeted FA for really crappy reasons and then lied about it.

I don't care if massclaiming in mini-normal is viable or not. I care that EMP screwed up massclaiming day 1 in this game, acted like scum and is continuing to give me every single creepy feeling that my instinct tells me I should not let him live.

--
Llama: Occam's razor says that if EMP is trying to prove his point, then he should you know, actually do a good job of it, act townie, get reads, scumhunt right? EMP hasn't done that, so then the simple explanation is that he isn't town right?

If he is trying to show the forum that massclaim works then he certainly shot himself in the foot with this game. And even if you wish to presume that his meta of suggesting the idea implies his alignment, well... I have nothing nice to say about that except it is naive.

I've played with EMP before. I don't consider him to be active in discussion. EMP also (to me) has a meta of shooting himself in the foot when he is scum whether intentionally or just for kicks.

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Rhinox: When you have time, I'd like you to answer why you think EMP was so strongly town the first two days-ish of this game.

-----

I really really strongly encourage an EMP lynch. If not today, then please consider tomorrow.
I will also note that while I am not certain on haylen, if it is 3 scum, I feel Haylen is a very likely candidate. If it is only 2 scum, then things are slightly different to me but.... Haylen... post or die.

Corvuus
p.s. log in saturday at some point. Hoping to see an EMP lynch.

[Empking]

Masclaim would've helped the town because it would've given us the kick not to no lynch and it would also have allowed us to go through the game bearing in mind that we only had two scum.

Also, FA is scum for not following his conviction. He thinks I'm town for the proposal? Good. He's against it? Fine. Going from one to the other? Scum.

[DavidParker]

I was well aware of that thread Llama and had even used it in my judging of his actions... But even if he thought it was pro-town move to make (as I stated I believed he felt), I still imagine it is something he would likely do as scum as well as town. He wanted to discuss the mass-claim option he felt was a legitimate "plan", I mean if he posted that and hadn't suggested a mass claim here, he would have been labeled as scum...

And I agree, Haylen please post.

@Neko: Ugh, the people not voting for emp? There had been various people who had supported his lynch. I felt corv was town, so did some others, so I pushed for another wagon.

[Empking]

OK, I'm willing to admit that I was probably wrong about Fehnl due to Llama's very town recent play. This means that the odds are pretty good that Haylen is scum but the odds are still better with Corv (plus Corv is a more informative lynch.)

[Nocmen]

I don't agree directly with llama that Emp is town because of that post. As said before, and I stand by that, while at the same time I still don't know what to think of Emp.

Llama has done a good job making me think he is town, but I still have him as my third suspect, behind Corv and DP, due to Fenhl's actions still at the end of yesterday.

I'm looking into Haylen as a possibilty, as the votes from her seem a bit opportunistic based on the wagons since she replaced in. I'm not sure if that's enough to go off of, so I need to do a reread on the people she replaced in before I make judgement before deadline.