DEFCON Mafia 2.0 - Over, American Victory!

[Jack]

percy claimed because of what he's going to put in his next post evidently.

Feel free to post guilty results on the other scum team.

[AurorusVox]

Jack. I have you. I know your role. Shall I feel free to post that too?

[Mina]

Posting from my phone now, but there are a few questions to which I need answers quickly--as in, QUICKLY--before I make my next move. Literally every hour counts.

1) AlmasterGM, were those messages in chronological order? Also, I don't suppose you could confirm whether the messages were all from the same QT and/or from different QTs, could you? </worth a shot>

=============================
2) Percy, if you pop in earlier than expected, how sure are you that Snake is the player referred to in the leaks, and not inHimshallibe (particularly the "What are you doing? Claim!" leak).

(On a side note, this is embarrassing. I thought Jed Cooper was obvtown for most of Day One, and was gnashing my teeth during his wagon. I'm glad I wasn't in the game then, or this would be Instance #537 of my getting in hot water for white-knighting scum.)

Can you see any evidence whatsoever implying that the leak refers to inHim?

See, Jack explained his shift on Snake because of the "claims" leak. Ironically, I'd actually thought of that theory for Jack's shift. But I read the leak as "What are you doing? CLAIM!" In other words, someone was egging him on to claim a role. And I checked, and Snake claimed in his first (IIRC) post after SpyreX's nuke. inHim spent a long time trying to dissuade SP before finally coming forward with the claim. (Now it turns out that Jack read the leak differently--which makes me feel a bit better about him--but that's beside the point).

Furthermore, check inHim's reaction to the leaks (fuuuuuck, I'm too lazy to quote on a phone). He instantly tries to discredit them by going, "Well, it's WIFOM!" Also, far too many people were pleading with Socio to change his mind BEFORE inHim's claim. It awoke my paranoia.

So I've been hesitating on whether I should push Sociopath to recall his nuke, particularly since I was very null on inHim's slot before the claim.

I know you're in a lecture, but even if you don't have time to share all the leaks, I hope you can at least say with confidence that they absolutely don't refer to inHim, and I can put my paranoid theory to rest.

===================================
3) Sociopath, did you notice inHimshallibe's claim? You posted after it. Why didn't you react to it? Do you realize that since this is a two-faction game, inHim is crosskill meat even if he is scum? Do you believe that inHim is telling the truth? What scum motivation do you see for either ACTUALLY protecting Fate or for PRETENDING to protect Fate when we'd catch his lie after Katsuki's nuke went through?

I'll have more direct questions for you when I get home, but right now, I want a wall post from you explaining why you were soooooo convinced that inHim was scum simply because you disliked his town/leave-alone reads.

==================================
4) Can all the people who have kneejerk "OMG, Socio is SO TOWN" reactions, you know, explain why?

I really don't see it. I'm going to ISO him when I get home, but my first impression was that despite his laidback "Whoo, IM POSTING ALL IN CAPS" style, he's posted little that's constructive. His inHim vig is just the choice I'd expect from scum--it's the middle road between "not so townish that I'll get lynched" and "not so scummy that I'm giving the town a free lynch." I didn't find his reasoning behind the choice very believable. And for someone confident enough of inHim's guilt to vig him, I don't see much passion or conviction there.

This isn't a rhetorical question. I'm really looking for a brilliant defence of SP that will show me the light within the next few hours.
=======================
Also, I feel like a total idiot for missing this (in my defence, I'd just read sixty pages):

Fate got my BATTLESHIP as he was most likely to start launching nukes and then immediately getting launched back because of scum butthurt over NUKERAGE.

AHAHAHA!

I'd like to respond to dana's and Jack's posts, but no way in hell am I doing this on a phone. This took me almost two hours.

[AurorusVox]

Mina:

1) you think SP and inhim are separate scumteams cross-butting-heads?
2) how do you react to your name dropping in the leaked messages?

[Percy]

This is going to be a long, long post. Two parts, in fact!

Firstly, I had it in my head that Snake claimed Radar. He didn't, he claimed fighter. I retract my exclamation that Snake is scum. He's probably town still. I say the nuke should be recalled, and I think SpyreX is scum anyway, so if he doesn't I'll make a rageface.

Percy, why are you claiming now?

Three reasons.
Firstly, I think I have some incriminating results that are worth sharing.
Secondly, the scum know that Eavesdrop was actually selected, since Toogeloo told everyone that he put all the PRs on his list and got none of them.
Thirdly, I have a strong feeling that at least one scumteam is going to target me for stealth bombing tonight, and it's better that I dump now than I wait too long and you all get nothing.

Now I've coded these as follows:

Red text

is for translations. One of the scumteams is using a code, and directly after every code piece I'll include the translation in red. The code itself is very simple; read the second letter of each "word". Treat words with double letters as spaces.

Green text

is for my commentary.

Purple text

is for public drops; I've included them in the timeline of the drops as a whole so you can see the progression. I can't give you the time when I received any of these messages; I got into trouble for that last game.

Keep in mind that there are two scumteams. I don't necessarily think that code means one scum team and non-code means the other, but it's a good starting assumption.

Without further ado, here they are.

Leak 1

from the first post by mod here skipping duplicate words

This could be either a key to some code, or a strange way of phrasing the key to the aforementioned code.

Leak 2

Whatever.

Appear clean dare fyi furry -naturally.

Play -naturally.

This says to me that there was some discussion of bussing. More on that later.

Leak 3

glljk = gvvjk

darff = darf

yslgkj volka hrmxc krza jyum

sorry

I assume these are corrections, but the first one throws me a bit - I don't know why double L should be different to double V.

Leak 4

I got the first one in list with E in the name...

I will post #35 method to tell you who I will use my nuke on.

This is probably a powerrole claim of some sort. Without knowing their preference list, I can't be sure. However, if this is a claim for something not a silo, how can you "use" a nuke? I think it may be a euphemism for NK, which I'll come back to later.

Leak 5

I got #1.

A scum got their first preference...?

Leak 6

Going to nuke Chesskid3 first

When I initially saw this, I thought straight away that chesskid was scum. Why would anyone want to nuke or NK chesskid? Reading him as scum lead me to construct my case, which I still think is pretty good, but somehow he's managed to relegate a lot of the suspicion to playstyle and has sat around being useless instead of scummy.

Leak 7

him gmfd zzart nvli total utle mine under hge vvan C. lol mr xxtra gsls thld aost fud blca mdrt bnvvl fit xtxxsd mvkl potato htgn zeld I rod lrt E?

im voting C. or should i vote I or E?

At the time that I saw this, the vote count (with dead people omitted) looked like this, with unvotes in grey:

Danakillsu - 5 (

Fate

, Jack, Faraday, Fate, SpyreX, gandalf)
Jed Cooper - 3 (

SpyreX

,

Fate

,

gandalf

, Sociopath, danakillsu, AurorusVox)
Internet Stranger - 1 (bobsnox)
Fate - 1 (chesskid3)
Toogeloo - 0 (

chesskid3

)
Katsuki - 0 (

Faraday

)

I don't know who C, I and E are, but these abbreviations show up again. Am I missing something obvious? Input here would be appreciated.
One thing to note is that this person is asking opinions on where to put their vote. I'd say that merely doing this discounts certain players from being the person who wrote this.

Leak 8

We can discuss who to nuke later. Right now we need to focus on what mislynch we should get, because Fate's wagon might actually be viable and then we can save Rogue's role for someone else.

Tai Chi, go for the dana one. Rogue join me on the Fate wagon. I think we can make a lot of flips happen if Rogue ever gets lynched connection wise, but lets try to steer far away from his lynch right now.

Rogue and Tai Chi are pseudonyms adopted by this scum team to refer to each other. Now the "If Rogue ever gets lynched" comment is important, because again we're discussing bussing.

Leak 9

The method in #35 is flawed because it can't be reversed to find the original name, there's no way to decode it.

For instance chesskid converts to ____ who is an all right nuke target, but I'm not sure how you could have chosen ____ without going through all the names using the method to see which one had a name that landed on ___.

Night time we can come up with something different.

This is exactly how it appeared to me; it means my original reading of the chesskid leak was wrong and meaningless, as I don't know who chesskid refers to. But it is clear that since there is "a name that landed on", the names themselves are used as the code. My initial thought was to start at chesskid3 and move one space down the playerlist for every letter in the username; in this case, it would land on Kitoari. My interpretation also fits the leaked message, but I'm really just speculating.

Leak 10

New method can be to give each player in order a word

If they did this, I didn't notice.

Leak 11

tld bomb ylder

lol

blame year atol curry mikey ctzx furrious bdea lily pear.

let it die

At the time I was leaked this, the wagon that had the most votes leaving it was the wagon on Jed, but dana as well. Someone could asking here whether they should keep pushing the wagon, perhaps the same person as the "should i vote I or E" from before. Or it's a scumbuddy saying this unprompted. I'm not sure.

Leak 12

msum vtldkj poping vps trvvm xbox music isle jingle mnuips tglaw mtrre lmao bely

stop bussing me

More on the bussing theme.

Leak 13

WE SHALL BUS INTO THE SUNSET, AND WATCH THE SKY TURN RED IN OUR GLORY

Looks like someone imitating either Fate or Sociopath. Also casts doubt on the "stop bussing me" leak being legitimate. I'd say this is a few townpoints for Fate.

Leak 14

So who are the options for a quick lynch tomorrow? Chesskid, bobsnox, maybe Fate. Who else?

Each of these players looked like a viable lynch heading into the next day. It certainly doesn't clear any of these players, but they could be using code here.

Leak 15

Have two tabs open to make reading easier.


C is very spot on with his scum reads. He should be our first NK.

c on the other hand is easily lynched, even though he is also accurate. They should be the first targets we look at, and it will look like cross-killing.


As for our actions tonight.

Tai Chi-Target i or v or V with yours. It would be very helpful.

Rogue-Target e with your action. Targeting anyone else either outs you as scum or is needlessly pro-town for no reason. You can say e is playing to his townmeta so you figured he was the easiest town read during your skim.

Whoever this is is one for the verbosity. My gut tells me it's AV talking here, but that's only my gut. It's also clear that whoever Rogue and Tai Chi are, they don't have silos, and they have actions that can target players during the night. That means, if I'm right, that two of the five active abilities have scum in the same faction. One of those got radar, which would be the first person and for reasons I'll get into, and the other sounds like the Battleship...?

Leak 16

С Рождеством

Merry Christmas in Russian lulz

Leak 17

So, any ideas on whew should kill?

I suggest we target Alamaster

The two typos probably aren't typos, but I can't guess their meaning. Any ideas?

Leak 18

whole word

either "ho" in code for Christmas, or a code the other team is working on, no idea.

Leak 19

trad maoer iderk mater qruer

radar

And this is why I thought Snake is scum. The fact that it's in code is odd, because I've been assuming that the person who wrote the big long post above isn't on the same team as the code team, but it fits far too nicely to be scum misdirection. Whoever has radar is scum, probably!

[Percy]

Leak 20

NK: Percy

Well clearly this didn't happen, but somebody's thinking about it, hence the dump.

Leak 21

Roger that.
Also do not be afraid to bus me. I will bus you guys hard, so keep that in mind.
Get a bitch fight going if possible.

This seems to suggest to me that one of the scum is within our current suspect pool, and might even be Snake.

Leak 22

You're voting for a scumbuddy. You're trying to make a small case against me. You're throwing me under the bus. That's stupid to bus in a game with this many players on day one.

The wiki agrees: "How to Spot it [bussing]

Suspicion commonly arises when someone is suddenly lynched for what seem like minor or spurious reasons, and yet flips scum, because it may be indicative that one of the major proponents of their lynch is actually one of their scum partners. "

spurious is the right word. stop.

U MAD?
This post is so general that it doesn't strike me as something designed to create WIFOM, and I have no way of knowing whether this comes from the same team as before. But it also appears to have been posted during the night, which is really odd. Any ideas?

Leak 23

chesskid goddamnit how many times do I have to say it? stop posting here and get on the thread to post they're going after lurkers

The scum were hoping this would be public-dropped, I'm guessing.

Leak 24

-#2 results?

pkoit kelp benfks lpnvms oozing atisj jheist tebnsioq quityy ncbvisp pofilas sdiwkfl iejfut.

keep the code

Going to have to come up with something more sophisticated now, fellas!

Leak 25

Mbud uohdry fmuda nbuifc SCTH htzwr koldt noyda?

bombCtoo?

I don't know who C is, but this is pretty useless anyway. Could be that

Leak 26

Given recent developments, we should treat U like we used to treat C, yes?

Again, no good ideas, but if C = one of the NKs...? Yeah, still nothing.

Leak 27

So C and U are the two people below Rogue on the playerlist, respectively.

If that is the case, I'm still not understanding him right.

That said I think U should be nuked by Vox tonight

Slip, or misdirection? You decide!
But whoever C is should help us figure out who is U, and therefore who is Rogue.

Leak 28

Rogue should be nuking the name that first appears in #3.

I'm sending in mine now.

Rogue being someone with nukes doesn't match up with the earlier hints that Rogue has the Battleship.

And I just remembered that inHim claimed doc, so he's probably Rogue, but does that refer to AurorusVox and bobsnox, or to Jack and Katsuki?

inHim is scum, anyway.

Leak 29

Rogue can just say he is sheeping and justify it that way

Just after I received this, I noticed this from inHim:

Both feel a little forced in my reread. Faraday's nuke of Katsuki is goodstuff, though, and keeps me optimistic.

Jack in that category is a sheep

. He always seems unreadable to me.

On its own, perhaps coincidence, but it's coming together too well for inHimscum.

Leak 30

Tai Chi why are you voting U anyway given your night actions?

Whoever is U could help us narrow down who Tai Chi is.

Leak 31

oh stupid me. cant be pr cos he nuked you LOL

???

Leak 32

What are you doing claim

Could be one of our nukees...?

Leak 33

You have to.

You HAVE to.

Still perhaps one of our nukees. I haven't had time to read much of what's happened recently, so someone else may have a good idea of what's going on here.

Leak 34

dont say that word or they'll know what were doing

WHAT WORD GAIZ LOL

Leak 35

BUSSING TEAPARTY-

Leak 36

BUSSING TEAPARTY!!

Leak 37

BUSSING TEAPARTY

Leak 38

BUSSING TEAPARTY!!

Obviously the scum wanted this leaked. I have no idea why. I'm also not sure about the timing here, lol

Leak 39

Eavesdrop: A crucial part of the Allies’ success during WWII was its ability to crack into German communications. It worked then. Why wouldn’t it work now? {In DEFCON 3 or below, every time a member of an opposing faction communicates with another member of its faction privately during the night, there is a 10% chance the message will be intercepted and its contents PM’d to you. During the day, this possibility increases to 30%.}

Spam.

Leak 40

Is English your first language Mina?

More spam.

Leak 41

your right jack i got em mixed up whoops lol

k i'll vote him in a bit for you

Almost certainly not Jack being addressed here.

Leak 42

we love you mr eavesdropper man

And I love you too. Are you chesskid? You sound like chesskid.

Leak 43

join us here on the dark side. we have nuclear weapons

So do we.

Leak 44

ah tick would have been better than zip apologies mr eavesdropper

lolwut?

Leak 45

dizzy looks like your number's up if chess gets his trade

You can't spend posts saying hi to me and then expect me to think that dizzy is scum...

...and that's it.

I haven't had time to read any posts that have happened, and I'm just going to leave what I have here. There are some promising leads and some found scum, and I'll catch up with you all tomorrow.

But seriously SpyreX cancel that nuke on Snake, he's still probably town.

[Percy]

EBWOP:

Leak 21 should be inHim, not Snake.
Leak 25 should continue "Could be that C is either RedCoyote or Bunnylover, given the fact that they were NKed."

[AurorusVox]

Percy is STILL awesome town.

(I would say though. I notice that you think FATE is being emulated but at one point you say one of the styles reflects me? On another site, I regularly excel as a role called "Disguiser" where one must post as another player (and therefore emulate their style) in order to survive. There is no way I would post the same in a potentially-intercepted QT as I would in thread)

Beyond that though, if you can crack the naming codes like you cracked the codes last game, I will be all over your booty.

[danakillsu]

@ Percy
When did you receive leak 8?

[Kitoari]

Requesting replacement. Pretty much everything started right when school started again, and my modding is killing me not counting my games.

Sorry.

[Percy]

@AV

: I still stand by my analysis; the tone of the post I said sounds like you does sound like you, and the emulation of Fate is pretty obvious.
I really, really think you're scum this game. I will be really shocked if you're not.

@dana

: I received it during N1.

Worrying thought. If VasudeVa/inHim is Rogue, then this:

Rogue join me on the Fate wagon. I think we can make a lot of flips happen if Rogue ever gets lynched connection wise, but lets try to steer far away from his lynch right now.

...doesn't make as much sense as I would like.

P-edit: Oh, Kitoari is replacing out. He's still scum too.

[AurorusVox]

Leak 27

So C and U are the two people below Rogue on the playerlist, respectively.

If that is the case, I'm still not understanding him right.

That said I think U should be nuked by Vox tonight

Slip, or misdirection? You decide!
But whoever C is should help us figure out who is U, and therefore who is Rogue.

Percy. Come now. Why would scum have codes for C, U, Rogue and Tai Chi, and then STILL use Vox? There's even a chance that one of the scum is assuming playername aliases on a rotational basis. From your leaks it certainly looks like a lot of names have been randomly mentioned.

---

@Dana, last game Percy was scolded for revealing the timestamps of his leaks. Don't hold out any hope for him being able to reveal the timing of these leaks.

[AurorusVox]

I didn't even get ninja'd wtf?

[Jack]

As for our actions tonight.

Tai Chi-Target i or v or V with yours. It would be very helpful.

Rogue-Target e with your action. Targeting anyone else either outs you as scum or is needlessly pro-town for no reason. You can say e is playing to his townmeta so you figured he was the easiest town read during your skim.

This is the most interesting part, considering that a lot of the active abilities are already out.

I would very much like to crack the letter code.

I guess inhim will flip soon in any case.

[AurorusVox]

Jack. I have you. I know your role. Shall I feel free to post that too?

Also, I find the "skim" part quite interesting. How many people have needed to skimread?

[Jack]

LATER

I'VE ALMOST CRACKED THE LETTER CODE

[AurorusVox]

OSHIT SORRY GO AHEAD AND CRACK IT

Ibetyoualreadyknowwhatitisthoright?

[AurorusVox]

Btw if YOU crack it I will be all over YOUR booty and Percy will be left cockblocked in a corner somewhere crying in the dark.

[Jack]

"C is very spot on with his scum reads. He should be our first NK."

HYPOTHESIS--> C is internet stranger

"im voting C. or should i vote I or E?"
Danakillsu - 5 (Fate, Jack, Faraday, Fate, SpyreX, gandalf)
Jed Cooper - 3 (SpyreX, Fate, gandalf, Sociopath, danakillsu, AurorusVox)
Internet Stranger - 1 (bobsnox)
Fate - 1 (chesskid3)
Toogeloo - 0 (chesskid3)
Katsuki - 0 (Faraday)

Therefore bobsnox is scum and dana and jed are one of I and E

1) Percy
2) SpyreX
3) SocioPath
4) AurorusVox
5) Fate*
6) VasudeVa
7) Faraday
8) RedCoyote
9) Toogeloo*
10) chesskid3
11) bobsnox
12) Jed Cooper* --> I
13) Katsuki*-->H
14) gandalf5166-->G
15) Jack-->F
16) danakillsu* --> E
17) bunnylover--D
18) Internet Stranger* --> C
19) Baby Spice--> B
20) Kitoari -->A

AWESOME

[Jack]

That fits very well, especially with bobsnox wanting to kill IS.

However it doesn't explain the lower case or the V.

[SpyreX]

Holy hell this page is the best page.

Percy, Jack, you're both town and awesome.

STILL not stoppping my nuke though.

Jack I think your code falls apart with a U in play. Some version of random letters OR a connection to a letter in the name?

[Jack]

I think the code is more complicated than that, I'm fiddling with it now. But those letters fit perfectly and match in thread things and bobs is scum.

[SpyreX]

With the bussing comments and the stop bussing me there HAS to be a clear cut one in the analysis.

God, I'm going to have to really look at the VC's.

----

The START fits but U?

And yea bob can die.

It looks like a PR claim COULD do more good than harm.

And as stupid as it feels, I don't want Socio to recall it now, JIC.

[Jack]

It's possible they used one code one day, and another the next.

27 is almost definitely a red herring...several others seem likely to be as well.

anyway,

unvote, vote:bobsnox

[bobsnox]

herp let's quicklynch bobsnox aderp

hey Jack how about you go look at when I voted IS and analyze his suspects prior to that. I'll spare you the WIFOM until you do that.

your theory has holes