Consulmaker II: the Pyrrhic War - Game over.

[The Fonz]

Woooah, Woah.

I don't 'oppose' a Jack lynch. I'm talkin about it. I'll kill him without hesistation.

You really, really don't think he's scum with dram and reck but you'll kill him anyway?

[SpyreX]

I still don't understand why people are thinking this. Nath's explanation did nothing for me. Why is is so farfetched to think that Dram could have been bussing both of them?

Its that combination.

Dram-scum throwing a quick shot out at Jack-scum would make sense because Jack SHOULD have been dead man walking.
When that got vetoed, considering the overall chance of Jack-scum actually making it to end game, throwing a shot out ANOTHER scum doesn't make a lot of sense.

[scotmany12]

I still don't understand why people are thinking this. Nath's explanation did nothing for me. Why is is so farfetched to think that Dram could have been bussing both of them?

Its that combination.

Dram-scum throwing a quick shot out at Jack-scum would make sense because Jack SHOULD have been dead man walking.
When that got vetoed, considering the overall chance of Jack-scum actually making it to end game, throwing a shot out ANOTHER scum doesn't make a lot of sense.

But dram pretty much had to execute reck at that point. I'm thinking they wanted me to veto it, but had dram tried to execute someone else, after he was constantly saying reck is scum, everyone would have known something was up.

[SpyreX]

Then why throw the Jack FIRST?

It just doesn't add up. Mind you, that doesn't phase me from shooting Jack but I would be real, real surprised to see a Pyrrhic flip.

[scotmany12]

Similar to why he had to shoot reck second. The majority of the town wanted jack lynched. Had he tried to kill reck first, we once again, would have known something was up. And I was the other consul, and I was pretty adamant during day one that I thought jack should be lynched. Its not crazy to think dram was afraid of me vetoing reck and then executing jack.

[Nathanael]

So we lynch Jack when town gets the informed minority's information?

no. if scum really has some advantage from knowing the consulmaker, we will find out. After all: a) we get informed if something went wrong in the night actions b) we see if something happens to consuls , etc. If this was scum's motivation, we could definitely find out soon enough and lynch Jack then.

I'm not misrepping you. How is it going to be clear early on what is and isn't scum-motivated?

Must have explained badly. You say, Jack will use his confirmed status to manipulate town. I say that worst case scenario ribwich cc's immediately, putting this to halt, best case scenario, ribwich waits a while to see what Jack does with his new acquired power and then stops it cold anyway with a CC. (Don't forget ribwich hasn't ANY problem counterclaiming at any time as he can confirm himself through consul choices.) this means Jack can't hope to get any negative influence on town by his "confirmedness", since ribwich can bust his cover on any given moment

How exactly am I going to argue against your assertion that you don't see scum doing it other than to point out that I've actually seen scum do it really quite often? Heck, you saw Reck and Dram come out the gate with a big bus IN THIS GAME.

nonononooooo. you didn't understand what I said.
Assume scum A wants to bus scum B for town cred. If scum B is exposing themselves with a big gambit, scum A will get almost no town-cred from a successful bus, since it will be seen as the "obvious move".
however, if scum A simply busses scum B out of tells of other sorts, and "catches" him (i.e. finds scummy things on him and get's him lynched out of his effort) his town-cred will be MUCH bigger.
this is why I say that using a fakeclaim as a reason to bus is extremely bad strategy. I didn't say busses are unlikely.
For the "out of the gate thing", the fact that it happened once, makes it even more unlikely to happen again. while it is unlikely to bus a buddy "out of the gate", bussing TWO buddies this way is extremely unlikely.

When it's a scum engineered situation, it's easier for them to manipulate it than if it's one that's come about as a surprise to them because a town player did something unexpected.

I'll grant you this in general terms. But don't forget that D1-mislynches are extremely likely. Probably even more likely than when random lynching due to some townies attracting some kind of attention. Why would scum need to resort to such a gambit to get a mislynch early? a scum-gambit has more reward, the later it comes, since the information it will cover up will be much greater. on the flip side, a town gambit loses efficiency later, for the same reason.

It's not necessarily designed to out any OTHER roles. But knowing whether the cmaker is malleable to your ends is useful, and every single outed town role helps narrow down the power role candidates.

well, this contradicts your previous stance which says covering up the consulmaker is valueless.

just because something is possible, it doesn't mean it is probable. this is quite a common logial fallacy.

Tell me where I actually used that fallacy you're accusing me of? It's happened before, it would perfectly explain Jack's behaviour, therefore it has to be considered. [/quote] you are quoting a very very specific instance and it is clear that I can't refute it. obviously it

could

be the case. the problem with your argumentation, is that you put it on the same level as general things. therefore it leaves the impression that that alone is reason enough to presume a scum-motivated gambit. The problem with this is, I could (If I had been on this site longer) quote specific TOWN gambits and could say those

could

happen too. We would get into an impossible case by case, gambit by gambit war which would absolutely miss the point.

Well, it is likely. don't forget Jack owes his life to ribwich's action, which was absolutely not likely in any way. ribwich's action was quite a surprise to everybody and this shows that the

likely

outcome of yesterday should have been a Jack-lynch.

Really? Because every time scum pulls something like this, there always seems to be a large bloc who take your line. I don't think it was in any way unlikely a priori that one of them got into one of the four positions that could veto his death.

no. you are forgetting the high pressure on someone making such a move. I, probably, wouldn't have in ribwich's position.
A non-confirmed townie or scum would really think twice before they put themselves against the whole town like that. Jack was lucky here that a) there was someone tribune who didn't want him dead and b) had the balls to do it (almost only a confirmed town would do this)

How unlikely, exactly? We already saw Dram is bushappy.

It's exactly the fact that he bussed that hard once, that makes it unlikely to bus so hard another time, even in the same post.

[ribwich]

Similar to why he had to shoot reck second. The majority of the town wanted jack lynched. Had he tried to kill reck first, we once again, would have known something was up. And I was the other consul, and I was pretty adamant during day one that I thought jack should be lynched. Its not crazy to think dram was afraid of me vetoing reck and then executing jack.

Also note that dram's explanation for why he didn't try to execute reck in the first place was specifically because it was going to be vetoed.

[Parama]

unvote, vote: The Fonz

2 tribunes > 1 retarded tribune

[scotmany12]

It's exactly the fact that he bussed that hard once, that makes it unlikely to bus so hard another time, even in the same post.

Why is is unlikely? You have yet to answer this.

[The Fonz]

Nate, frankly I can't be bothered getting bogged down in this. He lied about his role; scum do this. Arguing minutiae is just going to get me frustrated for no good reason.

I would like to know, however, where I said that outing the consulmaker is valueless for scum. I said KILLING the consulmaker is bad for scum, unless the consulmaker is a very good scumhunter (hence my thought that Jack would die early when I initially thought he was CM: Jack is a very good scumhunter when he wants to be, ie isn't scum like here). Knowing the consulmaker could be useful to scum precisely so they don't waste a kill on him. Also, why should I assume that scum value the information in exactly the same way I do?

[Parama]

Ribwich [5] (Nathanael, Lowell, Ribwich, Magua, Jack)

BTW at least 2 scum voting Rib here, Nath is one and Jack may be the other.

[ribwich]

Parama, I think I missed the point where you had the change of heart towards Jack. You were originally one of the people swearing that he's obvious town from the very beginning. Why are you willing to believe he's scum now?

[Porochaz]

I am in depthly reading my other game (Im just done) I plan to get back to this game properly, probably in a day or two.

[Parama]

Well if I had to pick 2 from that wagon...
ribwich is confirmed town
Nathanael is scum
Magua (Katsuki) is not scum with Nathanael
Lowell is not scum with Nathanael

so it must be Jack.
And there are 2 scum on your tribune wagon btw.

[ribwich]

So until you made that connection, you weren't thinking Jack was scum?

[Parama]

Hmm now that I'm rethinking... there's probably 2 scum left, maaaaaybe 3 but it's less likely, so the scum probably aren't voting together on the tribune wagon.
So Jack probably isn't scum since Nathanael is.

[Nathanael]

I would like to know, however, where I said that outing the consulmaker is valueless for scum. I said KILLING the consulmaker is bad for scum, unless the consulmaker is a very good scumhunter (hence my thought that Jack would die early when I initially thought he was CM: Jack is a very good scumhunter when he wants to be, ie isn't scum like here). Knowing the consulmaker could be useful to scum precisely so they don't waste a kill on him. Also, why should I assume that scum value the information in exactly the same way I do?

"Primate: I assume by 'run cover' you mean try to draw the NK and protect the real one? What is the value of that in this setup?"
wouldn't covering a consulmaker also prevent all other advantages scum may have from knowing them?

Nate, frankly I can't be bothered getting bogged down in this. He lied about his role; scum do this. Arguing minutiae is just going to get me frustrated for no good reason.

I understand. I think we aren't going to agree with each other anyway, and I think anyone else has seen enough to decide on their own.

Well if I had to pick 2 from that wagon...
ribwich is confirmed town
Nathanael is scum
Magua (Katsuki) is not scum with Nathanael
Lowell is not scum with Nathanael

so it must be Jack.
And there are 2 scum on your tribune wagon btw.

this is probably the worst post in the whole game. I am really having a hard time believing you could be town. I don't care how townish your predecessor was, you are going back to scummy after this.
could you please restate your case on me?

Preview edit:

Hmm now that I'm rethinking... there's probably 2 scum left, maaaaaybe 3 but it's less likely, so the scum probably aren't voting together on the tribune wagon.
So Jack probably isn't scum since Nathanael is.

lol.

[Parama]

Nath: Then you must've missed the towniest post in the game (which I made.)

[SensFan]

Is it just me, or does Nathan say something like "this is probably the worst post in the whole game. I am really having a hard time believing you could be town. I don't care how townish your predecessor was, you are going back to scummy after this" whenever anyone calls him Scum?

Seriously. I'm pretty sure his scumlist is currently: Sens/scot/Parama/Fonz

[SpyreX]

I missed it in the edits:

YES, I don't think Jack is scum with Dram and Reck. Consering the NK a second group isn't out of it AND he's gots to go so yes I would kill the hell out of him.

[ribwich]

Hmm now that I'm rethinking... there's probably 2 scum left, maaaaaybe 3 but it's less likely, so the scum probably aren't voting together on the tribune wagon.
So Jack probably isn't scum since Nathanael is.

Nice backtrack and way to ignore the question. I'm guessing by now you've figured out what I was leading up to, which is that you've been taking on a more subtle approach to what porochaz is doing. "Jack is town. Ribwich is stupid for saving him."

[Parama]

No, it's me noticing that OH WAIT 2 SCUM ARE DEAD HURRR.

[Nathanael]

Is it just me, or does Nathan say something like "this is probably the worst post in the whole game. I am really having a hard time believing you could be town. I don't care how townish your predecessor was, you are going back to scummy after this" whenever anyone calls him Scum?

Seriously. I'm pretty sure his scumlist is currently: Sens/scot/Parama/Fonz

lol. no. if YOU had read my posts. you would see this (link):

ribwich

>>

The Fonz = Jack = primate

>

Feysal = Magua

>

scotmany

>

Leon Belmont = SpyreX = Parama

>

Lowell

>

Porochaz = SensFan

after I said Parama goes back to scum, this means

porochaz,SensFan,Lowell,Parama are my top suspects

after your accusations for "not reading", this gets you further scumpoints for hypocrisy.

also, I'd like to point out that it was you who attacked me AFTER I had been calling you scum (almost) the whole game, not the other way round. this get's you more hypocrisy points. (as if you hadn't enough already)

[Parama]

I can't believe people are missing the towniest post in the game.

[Nathanael]

I missed it in the edits:

YES, I don't think Jack is scum with Dram and Reck. Consering the NK a second group isn't out of it AND he's gots to go so yes I would kill the hell out of him.

wouldn't you want to wait for evidence of a second scumgroup then?
I agree that as soon as there is a good reason to believe there is a second scumgroup, we shall kill Jack.
wanting to kill him without that sort of evidence totally contradicts your read on him not being scum with dram and reck.