Scum choosing to kill the Gunsmith over the Cop says three things to me; they're confident Prana won't be believed, they're fearing a watcher or they've got the Inverter role, which effectively acts as a Godfather. It could be a combination of all three, but I'd say the watcher fear/Invertor role would be more influential in making such a decision. I'm very confident in clearing PranaDevil as town based on two reasons; Guderian, a confirmed watcher, has proven Prana to be where he claimed to be investigating, which almost guarantees he is a cop. It could be argued he is a scum cop, but when you look at the reasons for picking this role as scum, it makes no sense for scum to go for it that low down. The reason to pick cop as scum is to block town getting it, in which case, going for it higher up the list makes much more sense. I'm mildly confident scum have an inverter, in which case, it is likely to be Llama or one of the 6's, I feel.
Le Cupcake is a town Vigilante, as going for the vig that low down is a very big risk, which if they really wanted it, have at least two higher picks to go for it. Why go for it there when it's likely to be gone? It's not a scum play at all, even with Jack at the helm. Before anyone cites PYP2 where scum picked up vig as the 7th pick, circumstances were completely different. There was only one vig - it was clearly the most powerful role, and scum owned the first pick. It was a safe assumption that number 1 would go for it from a town perspective, so it was equally safe to let it drop. Less so here, as either of the vigs (particularly the weaker one - Even night) could reasonably be taken from any of the the top 10 picks. I'm quite confident Cupcake is town, and should be shooting one of the unconfirmed 6's.
Benmage is still obviously town, for confirming Gude's role, being on a low doubled up number with scum, and being on every scum lynch. I'm less sure of Ellibereth, but I'm defering to others' belief of him to be town for now - I don't think he'd pick the same number/role as scum, particularly when scum's strategy this game has been to block and stop town roles.
~~
The beauty of this situation is, we get another shot from our cop, unless scum want to surrender a one-for-one trade with the watcher.
Bolding this bit for Guderian; please watch Prana, incase that wasn't obvious enough already
. We have another shot from the Cupcake vig who can whittle down the 6's. We force scum to kill Guderian or Cupcake, meaning we'll still have myself and Prana as innocents tomorrow, with obv-townies Benmage and Pomegranate still alive. I think the only thing that prevents this from being an obvious sweep is the possibility of an Inverter role, but we can address these fears tomorrow if we don't hit scum now or tonight. If we do hit scum now, I think we should enough regardless.I'm content with Andrius/DGB kills - I wouldn't be opposed to iamausername, but we can deal with him tomorrow if we don't hit scum in the 6's. I might have some more to say after work...
