PYP 4: New Homes, Same Problems (Day 5)

[Hoopla]

I'm not saying you're a bad player - I'm saying you have different priorities to me. If you want to bring your name back into the ring for explanations why an Elli town-flip happened, then that's fine.

[Fate]

Ok that's fair enough.

I mean I can see Ellie scum due to the set-up, but then again I doubt he'd pick the same role as scum again.

[Fate]

Wait I just re-checked, why can't Cupcake be scum?

If he is that's only TWO scum with high number picks, which is likely.

[Fate]

OH nvm I see you say "and another high number"

I think Cupcake is that high number if Prana's claim is to be believed.

It is worth exploring, an Ellie wagon won't really tell us much except what people think of his meta and lurkers in general.

[Hoopla]

Wait I just re-checked, why can't Cupcake be scum?

If he is that's only TWO scum with high number picks, which is likely.

He could be, but there are a lot of players with high numbers. There are not a lot of possible players with not-high numbers, or not 6's. My theory is that there's not three in the high numbers, or not two in the 6's.

[Fate]

Guderian 1,1
Volkan 2,6
Benmage 3,4
Ellibereth 5,1

I see so you're looking at these.

Guderian-You called him probtown for some reasoning I can't remember, but I do remember him being early on the gandalf wagon.
Volkan-He can easily fake scumhunting, I hate that he didn't send an action in after being warned, CHKFLIP died over him for fucking fucks sake, and I can't really remember anything else notable that he has done. What's your stance on him? WHY do you think scum killed chkflip when they could've just as easily pushed him to claim the next day, (as I suspect they may have done with Gude if Gude is town)
Benmage- Town
Ellie- Let's just step back and say Town for the moment and look at the others. He's basically a crapshoot given his activity. If ANYTHING the scum set-up with roles shouldnt' be usewd against him now that I think about it since he was inactive during the selection process.

[Benmage]

I still like Prana scum.

[Fate]

I keep forgetting about the watcher....damn. Probably not a good thing because it shows scum what role I'm NOT.

Or.... IS THIS ELABORATE PLANBZ?:??

[Fate]

Unvote: Inhim

I'm finding vollkan very off putting as well. vollkan have you ever played nightless before?

Yeah. Ironically given my play here, I actually prefer it.

If this is true, that vollkan and Guderian aren't scum, that would mean no scum chose 1, 2 and 4 as their X number. I think it's quite unlikely a scumteam would go into a draft with their lowest number being a 5, purely on the basis that when fabricating randomness, you tend to favour a wider spread then what true randomness really is. It would feel unnatural to go with all mid-range/high numbers. I think the only way a strange set of numbers would have been picked is if someone familiar with number analysis (and believes in it) is leading the scumteam (Jack is most likely). But I doubt Jack is going to be scum, given his experience of being scum in PYP2. He knows how easy it is for scum to swap roles when fakeclaiming - I doubt he would have made Gandalf claim VT unless he's in a scumteam stripped of any real power.

I don't agree with on this being a towntell re: Jack (or any other experienced player). There's a huge wifom element involved: whether experienced scum would judge it better than Gandalf avoid lynch by appearing to be a genuine newbie or whether they think it better that they give him a fakeclaim.

I did ask vollkan the same question as hoopla pointed out today and he had a rather strange reply:

Basically, voll, if you really are town (which atm I dont believe), then you should definitely consider someone in the 3's scum, because if not, then the lowest number scum picked would be 5. Does that make sense to you?

This may be a "me not liking big picture play" thing, but I don't see why I should assume one of them to be scum. There are good reasons for town to pick 3, and there are obvious reasons (both strategic and WIFOM) why aiming for middling numbers might be a feasible scum play. I really don't think it helps to apply, based on a precedent of three games with different people, rules as to where scum most likely are that ride roughshod over individual behaviour.

What's your point exactly?

The SS wagon is bad. The closest thing to a case I can see is Guderian's 790. Point `1 of his I just have no idea about - stripping suspicions out of context and implying something about them is weak. Then it resorts to analysis based on the numbers, which I've already explained (in the quote above, conveniently) why I think it is a bad crutch. And finally "wishy-washyness" - which leads me to :

@SS

is that meta-consistent?

[Jack]

1,3,5,6 and 2,3,5,6 are very unlikely. There are so many bad people in the sixes that I'm assuming 1 scum there.

We can't lynch elli without having a better picture of gud and vollk.

one of cupcake, fate, prana

one of elli, gud, vollk

Can't think more right now or reread ISO's.

cupcake and elli have done the least, prana and vollk seem scummiest to me, prana and vollk have investigative roles.

This assumes my town read on llama and xvart.

3,6,10,12,13? Sure. Hoopla did you say something about 3 double digits being unlikely? I think scum would go for more high numbers.

[Fate]

I like Volkan and Cupcake as the last two scum, yeah

[Benmage]

What info does vollkan have for us tonight?

[Pomegranate]

I have no interest in an Ellie lynch today.

I have interest in a mass claim and a nailing of scum and a clean sweep.

Why are people not saying YEAH LETS MC? Or NO NOT YET?

Disconcerting

NO NOT YET

Okay, so scratch Prana, I say Cupcake.

VOTE: Le Cupcake.

[Guderian]

The only reason I would assume vollkan can't be scum is that he picked Gunsmith, which gandalf also picked. So if they were scum together, they just shot themselves in the foot for no reason to give their second scum pick and fourth overall as vanilla.

I mean its possible, but unlikely. The only thing that still tugs me in that way is his lack of action n1. volk, n2 action?

did anyone reread and notice anyone gandalf and slow were both calling scum? could clear some town.

[Fate]

Hey its not like gandalf was able to LIE about the role he chose and got vanilla too, am I right?

Thats just impossible

[Guderian]

For now, we obliterate the cupcake. Tomorrow, we go after the prosecutor.

[Le Cupcake]

For now, we obliterate the cupcake. Tomorrow, we go after

the prosecutor

.

Explain.
By prosecutor, do you mean fate?

[Benmage]

Hey its not like gandalf was able to LIE about the role he chose and got vanilla too, am I right?

Thats just impossible

Thats the crazy talking...although gandalf would've made a great super saint. Dude always sucks.

[Guderian]

Le Cupcake-town

Benmage-scum

Le Cupcake.... Town

Benmage..... Scum
slowsilver - well... if I were allowed... TOWN
inHimshallibe..... Scum

[Benmage]

It's as good as anything.

Vote Cupcake

[Le Cupcake]

Le Cupcake-town
Benmage-scum

slowsilver-very possibly scum
inHimshallibe-town

Andrius-town

Meh, no one cares about you.


Le Cupcake.... Town
Benmage..... Scum

slowsilver - well... if I were allowed... TOWN
inHimshallibe..... Scum

Andrius..... Not enough material

Bolded are the flips.

Common grounds:

Le Cupcake.... Town
Benmage..... Scum

[Le Cupcake]

EBWOP: It is convenient that you should only cut out what you want to add to your argument, guderian

[Guderian]

So you think benmage is scum?

[Le Cupcake]

So you think benmage is scum?

I never said that.

My point is that in your post, you cut parts of their posts in order to portray me as scum. Why cut out the second part of gandalf's post then?

Also, you still have not responded to my earlier inquiery.

[Benmage]

Here's some added argument fun facts...what could be the worlds most easiest target? A #6... A #6 who lurks. dunt dunt dunt:

Vote: Andrius

Where are you? You've been on the site - why are you forgetting about us? Lynch all lurkers.

Parama is andrius' scumbuddy.

Unvote, Vote Andrius

Or we can lynch lurker-scum andrius, and save the massclaim for tomorrow.

Methinks that's a better idea.

Vote: Andrius

P-EDIT: STOP NINJA-ING ME PPLS

Lets lynch the cake, he flips scum and I'm confident andrius is town.