Jack wrote:Hoopla, explain your reasoning clearing vollk and guderian to me.
I haven't "cleared" them in the traditional sense. But the fact that Gandalf has flipped Vanilla means that at least one must be town, as there is little reason to waste such a high pick otherwise. Gandalf claimed Gunsmith - we either look at it as he is lying, or he is truthful.
If Gandalf is lying about the role he aimed for, how did he know a Gunsmith was above him to prove the claim? The only real reason is that if vollkan and Gandalf are scum together. But for this to be true, it means Gandalf must have tried for Guderian's role, which is a far less likely scenario than the most obvious one of vollkan-town Gunsmith and Gandalf actually trying for Gunsmith. The only way for vollkan to be scum is through an elaborate scum gambit where scum have picked up Gunsmith lower done and have done some role shuffling. In which case, well done, it's a brave play to do so early as there are a bunch of roles that can still catch you. But we shouldn't be thinking in paranoid off-chances.
If we believe Gandalf's VT-Gunsmith claim to be true, it raises questions as to why scum were going for that role with their third pick. If scum had, say the 1st and 3rd pick (which is the only
real
possibility I see of vollkan/Guderian) - what use is going for Gunsmith there, when you should probably be taking one of the vigs, if not in first spot, the third one. Realistically, what other role would scum possibly go for if they had first pick? Cop or Vig is the only rational choice, when you go by previous PYP's and the relatively weaker roles on offer this game. So, if we're to assume scum were to pick one of these roles, what motivation do scum have going for Gunsmith in 3rd spot when they're taking one of the gun roles? I can see a strategy of Cop 1st, Gunsmith 3rd to shut down town investigation power, but other than that, there aren't many scenarios where Gunsmith 3rd makes sense when you have a higher pick.
It's likelier in my eyes, that scum's highest pick was 3rd, and they went for Gunsmith purely because they wanted to be able to vig/cop hunt knowing they were likely going to miss out on most or all of those roles.
Again, there's a chance Guderian is scum, and even an outside chance of vollkan scum, but I think both of those players (particularly vollkan) are more of a risk lynch-wise, than taking a potshot at one of the 3's. Perhaps "clearing" them was false wording (I don't remember if I said that), but rather, they're a low percentage play. I think the psychology behind scum probably choosing a number 1-4 as a function of simulating randomness and spreading out well, is solid. We should be lynching slowsilver.
