PYP 4: New Homes, Same Problems (Day 5)

[LlamaFluff]

Try lowering your standards. People expect less out of you and you surpass your goals more often and you dont need to try to meet expectations. Why do you think I dont mind (much) that im a 2.8ish college student?

[Parama]

I was in that game too, which means Le Cupcake is scummmm

[Le Cupcake]

I was in that game too, which means Le Cupcake is scummmm

Other way around, bub.

[Parama]

Why do you think I'm scum?

[Le Cupcake]

I am town.

I like the defensiveness though.

What is your reason for giving andrius a pass?

[Parama]

Because he hasn't posted?
I'm not against the lynch but there are better lynches to be had.

[Hoopla]

I'm confirmed town, hell yeah. Well, I want to make the most of it while I'm alive. I hope now that you all know I am sincere my number analysis will be taken more seriously, since the possibility of me manipulating you with it has been removed. I have a couple of thoughts about where the rest of the scum is.

It is highly likely that Gandalf was truthful about the Gunsmith claim, which means vollkan is quite likely to be town. The only other way Gandalf could possibly have been vanilla, is if he attempted to go for the role Guderian went for, and then Gandalf is scum with vollkan, but this is incredibly unlikely. It makes you wonder why scum has opted to go for the Gunsmith claim - to me, it is very plausible scum opted for a strategy of not taking vigs/cop, making the Gunsmith a more viable claim. The main reason why you wouldn't go for vig/cop is if you didn't have control over the first couple of picks, and thought these were the likeliest roles to be taken. I think if scum had picks 1 and 3, going for Gunsmith would have been a poor choice, and slightly irrational when you would probably be wanting to take out other gun-roles. I don't think Guderian is scum.

If this is true, that vollkan and Guderian aren't scum, that would mean no scum chose 1, 2 and 4 as their X number. I think it's quite unlikely a scumteam would go into a draft with their lowest number being a 5, purely on the basis that when fabricating randomness, you tend to favour a wider spread then what true randomness really is. It would feel unnatural to go with all mid-range/high numbers. I think the only way a strange set of numbers would have been picked is if someone familiar with number analysis (and believes in it) is leading the scumteam (Jack is most likely). But I doubt Jack is going to be scum, given his experience of being scum in PYP2. He knows how easy it is for scum to swap roles when fakeclaiming - I doubt he would have made Gandalf claim VT unless he's in a scumteam stripped of any real power.

Back to the original point - unless there is someone particularly canny at the helm of this scumteam, I find it exceedingly unlikely that scum would have gone into the draft with their lowest number being 5, hence, one of the scum is sitting on the number 3 (Ben, SS). I think Ben is significantly less likely to be scum, given his vote being planted on Gandalf almost all day, coupled with the fact he was the alternate wagon being pushed when Gandalf's wagon collapsed. I'd be quite surprised if Benmage is scum, because I think these points are very strong.

Slowsilver was one of the few that jumped shipped to Benmage throughout the day, and whilst I initially gave him town points for a couple of his posts in the queue thread, those tells don't outweigh Ben's towniness, nor do they outweigh the likelihood of Guderian and vollkan being town. I wouldn't mind hearing everyone else's thoughts on my number predictions - do you think scum would have gone into the draft with 5 being their lowest possible number? What do you think about my other eliminations?

VOTE: Slowsilver

[Hoopla]

Vollkan, claim your Gunsmith result.

The Andrius wagon is really dumb, considering there are 5 different players on the number 6. It's already decently unlikely he is scum, and if he is, we can catch him with our powerroles later. We should be closing down neighbourhoods now that we have confirmed/semi-confirmed innocents. That is making it a lot easier.

[Hoopla]

Yeah I said it. Hoopla is scum and she's pushing an agenda and that AGENDA is gandalf and THATS why Im not keen on his lynch.

Her REACTIONS to being called scum are classic scum Hoopla:

YES I AM IMPLYING GANDALF IS TOWN.

WHAT ARE YOU IMPLYING, THE HE IS SCUM AND HIS BUDDY ABOVE HIM PICKED GUNSMITH?

IS THAT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING?

Just quoting this all in a post for when I need quick examples of Fate's wrongness and paranoia for future games.

Actually, quick question Fate. What happened from you believing Gandalf was town to you dropping the L-2 vote on him (without reason)? You never really explained that.

[PranaDevil]

Vollkan, claim your Gunsmith result.

He hasn't got one, he said so twice that he never sent in an action.

[Hoopla]

Vollkan, claim your Gunsmith result.

He hasn't got one, he said so twice that he never sent in an action.

Oh okay. Lame.

[xvart]

I'm still alive. I highly doubt I was jailkept. Hoop's town.

Why did you not protect Guderian?

Hoopla - you originally opened D2 with the assumption that either Guderian or Volkkan was scum. Why vote outside of those two? I completely support the SlowSilver vote, but was the interactions with the gandalf wagon enough to off set the 50:50 shot based on the numbers theory?

I cant believe chk picked supersaint with the number 3 pick. Not sure what he was trying to do there. Not sure why he was night killed because he was looking pretty sketchy at end of day. Not being groundbreaking here, but I figured he was vigged, and scum got hosed on their night kill.

I would have serious apprehension about a vig killing someone in the top three on the basis of looking pretty sketchy, so I don't believe that is the case. I think it is very likely that the scum team was trying to kill the Gunsmith or another top role choice. This speculation is scummy on those premises.

The rest of this post are mild suspicions that don't really have much substance behind them other than casting face value suspicion anywhere but him.

VOTE: Guderian

[Hoopla]

Hoopla - you originally opened D2 with the assumption that either Guderian or Volkkan was scum. Why vote outside of those two? I completely support the SlowSilver vote, but was the interactions with the gandalf wagon enough to off set the 50:50 shot based on the numbers theory?

I changed my mind based on the scum motivation to go for Gunsmith in the third spot. And I don't know why you would unless you were going for a no vigs/cop strategy. I'd be in favour of Guderian claiming, because I think knowing the draft order of the top 4 would be pretty insightful, as far as working out what scum's motivation/draft strategy was.

[Jack]

Wall of text...hoopla...errg.

Scum picked in 1-4 and ben is prob town, the rest will take some figuring.

I had some crazy idea about scum having gunsmith lower down and gandalf claiming to have gone for it and then scum killing chkflip so vollkan could be "confirmed" as gunsmith while actually being vig or something, but I can't make sense of it.

[Hoopla]

Wall of text...hoopla...errg.

Scum picked in 1-4 and ben is prob town, the rest will take some figuring.

I had some crazy idea about scum having gunsmith lower down and gandalf claiming to have gone for it and then scum killing chkflip so vollkan could be "confirmed" as gunsmith while actually being vig or something, but I can't make sense of it.

That's a very elaborate scheme - plausible, but it would take some extreme cunning to pull that off. I don't think it's a very viable consideration.

I think I'm comfortable with ruling Guderian and vollkan as town - to the point where I'm decently confident SlowSliver will flip scum.

[Guderian]

I too entertained the thought of a massive scum gambit, but it seems a little risky to put into motion day 1 which could net 2-3 scum and not much profit. The only reason I would entertain this idea is that I do find vollkan lack of sending in a night action and minor actions d1 slightly scummy. I guess for now it wait and see on the town side of the fence.

I did ask vollkan the same question as hoopla pointed out today and he had a rather strange reply:

Guderian wrote:Basically, voll, if you really are town (which atm I dont believe), then you should definitely consider someone in the 3's scum, because if not, then the lowest number scum picked would be 5. Does that make sense to you?

This may be a "me not liking big picture play" thing, but I don't see why I should assume one of them to be scum. There are good reasons for town to pick 3, and there are obvious reasons (both strategic and WIFOM) why aiming for middling numbers might be a feasible scum play. I really don't think it helps to apply, based on a precedent of three games with different people, rules as to where scum most likely are that ride roughshod over individual behaviour.

To repeat: on radar still.

Inhim wagon looks to be abandoned because he is weak doc. Not trying to start it again, but isn't it possible scum could pick weak doc? Nothing says it has to be town, although it doesn't look like the smartest scum pick. Worth considering.

For now, however, I would like to resume on slowsilver. I already outilned a few posts back why slowsilver looks scummy.

But to repeat,

1. strange votings. (end of day 1)

slowsilver wrote:These three people are xVart (the predominant one?), Jack (active (or not so active) lurker?) and Pomegranate who just sheeps (not an awful thing in itself, but sheeping wagons is unnecessary)...

So I conclude that these three are scum together.

I have become less convinced that xvart is scum - but I still don't know where that puts me.

So Hoopla looks fairly scummy

Benmage..... Scum

inHimshallibe..... Scum

SpyreX wrote:Players not voting: slowsilver

2. The 3 slot. with the benmage counterwagon at end of day gaining steam, it is highly possible he is town. The fact that he is VT also helps ben town case, because it is highly unlikely the top two scum picks would of hit roles already picked by others. So that leaves slowsilver as the low number person I guess you could say of the scum team.

3. real wishy washy posting. look at his iso. 1-10 is meaningless.

At this point, if slowsilver flips scum, I am almost positive these people would be town. Based on the way he has gone after them for very little reasons. I encourage a slowsilver wagon now.
a. inhim
b. xvart
c. benmage
d. hoopla (already but extra)
e. andrius

unvote

vote: slowsilver

[Fate]

VOTE: Guderian
Scum picked weak doc?
Scum picked all 6?

YOU KNOW I'M GETTIN REAL FUCKIN TIRED OF YOUR FEAR MONGERING.

ITS HIGH TIME YOUR SCUMMY ASS CLAIMED

[Fate]

Yeah I said it. Hoopla is scum and she's pushing an agenda and that AGENDA is gandalf and THATS why Im not keen on his lynch.

Her REACTIONS to being called scum are classic scum Hoopla:

YES I AM IMPLYING GANDALF IS TOWN.

WHAT ARE YOU IMPLYING, THE HE IS SCUM AND HIS BUDDY ABOVE HIM PICKED GUNSMITH?

IS THAT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING?

Just quoting this all in a post for when I need quick examples of Fate's wrongness and paranoia for future games.

Actually, quick question Fate. What happened from you believing Gandalf was town to you dropping the L-2 vote on him (without reason)? You never really explained that.

Meh. I thought gandalf was 2scum4scum which maade me thinknur role fishing was scummy. I ADMIT I WAS WRONG DAMN IT. Let's move on.

I voted gandalf to get a lynch, 2scum4scum+vanilla gsmith claim really weak threw me off, and he was an infinitely beetter lnch than benmage, I really didn't know what he would flip at that point that I voted him.

[Hoopla]

I don't think Guderian is scum, but he should still claim regardless, because he is going to constantly be suspected. Plus I think his role information will help learn what scum's pregame strategy could have been.

[Guderian]

fate, just because you type in all caps doesn't make your points any more valid.

Fear mongering? Hardly, I present logical situation that most people may or may not of thought of in an interest to provide discussion. Inhim is all the way at the bottom of the draft, weak doc could be a possible pic. Note that I said to keep it in mind, not that I think he is scum.

Scum picked all six? Have you heard of sarcasm?

If you can provide me with a few concrete reasons why claiming would be beneficial to town, I will consider it. I dont really see any way my claim could help thing if not to let the scum know exactly what I am.

Also, completely ignoring the case. Random raging this entire game. Not really any cases. I've read a few of your other games. You're usually on point. Not sure what you're doing here. Change of opinions on you. Its high time I :

FOS: FATE

also, hoopla, If i am not scum as you say, why would I constantly be suspected? If you believe I am town, wouldn't it be your duty to try and argue away from my lynch. I know I would do the same to the little town list I provided. To do anything less would be to allow yourself to become a bystander.

[Fate]

£HAT FOS WILL BE YOUR. DEATH KNELL BITCCH.

OH SO NOWNTHAT ALLL SIX CMMENT WAS SARCASM??

SARCASM!!!!!

MY ASS. YOU MEANT IT WHEN U SAID IT NOW YOU'RE BACKTRAACKING AND FALLING DOWN. NO SHIT INHIM COULD BE SCUM BUT ITS OBVIOUSLY NOT AN ISSUE TODAY OR LIKELY AT FUCKING ALL.

YOUR JUSR SPEWING WORDS TO SPEW THEM. AND YOUR FOS ON ME AFTER SUPPOSEDLY METAING ME... HAH. JUST HAH.

[Le Cupcake]

I can't take this anymore.

Unvote, Vote: Gud

[Benmage]

Im sick

[Guderian]

le, fate

[Fate]

I actually read Hooplas wall, gandalf being the highest scum pick is plausible, especially given my own role related info.
VOTE: slowsilver