PYP 4: New Homes, Same Problems (Day 5)

[inHimshallibe]

Because she knows that it's probable that scum would pick different numbers, and knows she has to push that early game. So she might have three of her buddies pick the same X number, for example.

And sacrifice all that potential power? No way.

[gandalf5166]

I was over-exaggerating and using the simplest example, but you get my point.

[DrippingGoofball]

Or maybe the scum could have picked numbers independently, without telling each other... I'm not saying they did that necessarily, but if Hoopla is scum, they must have had the forethought to brace themselves against this. Guessing "how" is stepping into WIFOM quicksands.

[chkflip]

@Guderian: What was the point of saying "that's quite a list"?

It is quite a list, composed entirely out of the blue with nothing to back it up.

VOTE: Guderian

This is the only prominent thing I could find that

wasn't

already brought up. It's scummy to me because parama blatantly said he had reasons and would only show them if asked. Did Guderian miss this or is he simply trying to avert attention in the worst way possible?

Methinks the latter

.

Oh, and parama, fuck off. Just fuck off. That is all.

[DrippingGoofball]

Zoom zoom, Greyhound.

[inHimshallibe]

Zoom zoom, Greyhound.

I don't disagree.

[Parama]

You are not doing anything. I'd prefer someone being useful.

[chkflip]

And talking about all that numbers nonsense? Shit doesn't make sense to me, scum could go in any direction that town could go and viceversa. I've already told you why I wasn't helpful up until now. And of course you lot think I'm bussing. I couldn't possibly be town and agree, that just doesn't make any sense.

Retarded.

[PranaDevil]

Because she knows that it's probable that scum would pick different numbers, and knows she has to push that early game. So she might have three of her buddies pick the same X number, for example.

and thus be most likely dead last in picking roles... and thus not even HAVE any role beyond mafia goon, which leads to the vigs taking them out and the cop picking them out.

As for DGB's option, again, it nullifies the entire point of scum being able to work together to collect some of the stronger roles. Scum willingly giving that up isn't just poor play, it's stupid play. I'm not even going to consider that the scum were dense enough to not co-ordinate themselves.

[LlamaFluff]

I still say that Giardia is town and just the resident mislynch bait for this game.

Just got a slight whiff of a town read from inhim, so going back to Ben. Ben is definantly scum, someone read him in iso and tell me how you can think otherwise.

unvote
Vote Ben

[Le Cupcake]

Gandalf is scum. Hoopla may be scum as well.

All that's left here is who we want to lynch first.

Gandalf is scum via this. Play this game matches up pretty well to play in this game. Not to mention what xvart pointed out.

[Le Cupcake]

Also thanks to PD for finally answering our question about whether scum vig's could shoot. (aka, extra scum shot).

[LlamaFluff]

Updated scum list for those who are interested, which should be all yall:

Ben
Cupcake
Sajin
Inhim
Eli or Rabies


Also: Giardia is town, Hoopla is town, IAU is town, Pom is town, Jack, Parama and Fate are probably town.

Can we please lynch Ben?

[inHimshallibe]

Llama, of the four uniques, which do you find scummiest?

[LlamaFluff]

Llama, of the four uniques, which do you find scummiest?

Ben, the one im voting for, by a mile. Its basically in order although LC/Sajin are pretty close together, I would not have any problem with Sajin then LC.

[inHimshallibe]

Well, he's not actually one of those four, but he is pretty high up on the draft order.

[Parama]

I think Llama took it to mean the 4 uniques on his scumlist. That's what I took out of it as well.

[LlamaFluff]

Well, he's not actually one of those four, but he is pretty high up on the draft order.

I took it like Parama said.

Out of those four probably Gandalf, but I really dont think any of them are anything more then slightly leaning scum. If it was up to me none of them would be getting lynched today. However we have a lot of people pigeonholing the lynch into one of those four for reasons I cant really understand much.

[inHimshallibe]

To me, we're looking at those four because two of them are acting pretty damned scummy, the numbers favor us hitting scum among the uniques, and lynching scum higher up on the draft order takes away scum power.

[LlamaFluff]

To me, we're looking at those four because two of them are acting pretty damned scummy, the numbers favor us hitting scum among the uniques, and lynching scum higher up on the draft order takes away scum power.

People are so locked into them though that no one is paying attention to anyone else and are trying to force any type of scumtell possible onto the slots. Giardia really is town, if I have to claim Mason with him I will to get that point accross. Chck and vollkan are null at this point, cant really think of much either have done, Gandalf is the only one I can really see as scum, but even then there are quite a few who are much scummier then he is.

If you have a confirmation bias to at least one of the four being scum, you will try and force any possible tell you can find into supporting this evidence. Why arent we concentrating on the (6,1) people? There is what, about a 60% chance that one of them is scum?

Look at any attempt to start a wagon on anyone outside of the top four, it gets shut down every time. I think xvart at 4/5 has got the most and that was a very early wagon. People outside of the top four are just getting to do whatever they want but everyone is refusing to pay attention to them. Like Ben. Have you isoed him yet?

[Parama]

Yeah Llama the issue is I don't really think any of those three are scum. Yet. Andy hasn't really fulfilled his posting quota this game though which is making me rethink my town read on him. Sajin lost his town read... Pome's kept it though. I'd be most willing to lynch Sajin out of the three, but there are 6 scum in a game with 5 scum and we need to take care of them all first.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah Llama the issue is I don't really think any of those three are scum. Yet. Andy hasn't really fulfilled his posting quota this game though which is making me rethink my town read on him. Sajin lost his town read... Pome's kept it though. I'd be most willing to lynch Sajin out of the three, but there are 6 scum in a game with 5 scum and we need to take care of them all first.

Was kind of a frustration/sarcasam thing of saying how stupid this all seems to me. I dont think that we should lynch one of the (6,1) people because their number, or that we should lynch one of the first four because of their number. We should lynch someone who is acting really scummy and people are using odds to avoid paying attention to.

[Parama]

Like Guderian.

[LlamaFluff]

Nah Giardia is town. He is my pseudo-mason buddy.

[Guderian]

Is it possible for you to call me by my actually name Llama? Its not that hard.

fate, at times you seem really protown, but at times (aka when launched into a caps rage) its hard to say. I'd say more townish though.

inhim,

First:

2/3 chance of gandalf, vollkan, chkflip being scum


Then:

gandalf or ben need to die today

If you look at the odds, thats what the percentages tell us. over 50% of the unique numbers are scum. And ben has said some really strange things and then evaporated. This screams scum to me. Thats why I said those two statements.

I am also liking the number of phantom threats I am getting. It seems no matter what happens today people are going to try and say I am scum. I have no doubt that I am trying to be slated for the mislynch tomorrow If i make it there.

Ok more numbers. Some new thoughts on the numbers. I would like your thoughts on my thoughts.

Spoiler: Draft Numbers

Guderian 1,1
Volkan 2,6
chkflip 9,5
Zodiark13 Gandalf5166 12,1
Benmage 3,4
slowsilver 3,5
Ellibereth 5,1
Rabies 5,7
Hoopla 10,1
Le Cupcake 10,6
Jack 11,1
xvart 11,7
Fate 13,1
PranaDevil 13,10
llamafluff 8,1
Parama 8,5
inHimshallibe 8,7
Drippinggoofball 6,10
iamausername 6,11
Andrius 6,1 <--- Random WINNER
Sajin 6,1 <--- Random Loser
Pomegranate 6,1 <--- Random Double Loser!

First off, there is no x = 4,7,14,15
I know I am not scum (YES YOU ARE BLAH BLAH BLAH ok whatever), so I know scum do not exist in the 1 neighborhood.
so 1,4,7,14,15 are out. Now this list is unique, we have 10/22 46% numbers with x followed by a 1. In previous games, scum have only followed their x followed by a 1 20% of the time.

so If we assume a random spread, with no doubling up, (which almost everyone agrees is undeniably dumb (my all picking six kidding aside)) scum have the following numbers to pick from

2,3,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,13

Now bear with me. Something about gandalfs 'three adhd's or whatever' seemed to ring through. *cue calls of buddying.* Something about his posts seemed sincere. So for now I am going to eliminate 12 from this list.

Now, in previous games, scum have ALWAYS gone for 1,2. I see no reason this game would be different. Ergo, volkan is one of the scum. It also bodes well for this case that his y numbers is not a one.

so now we have 3,5,6,8,9,10,11,13

In my mind, benmage has been acting scummy. The numbers fit So, ben is in as well. thats two scum. Now, scum want to space out a bit, to ensure optimal placement.

So we go to the top end. Who has been acting scummy up there? If I would guess, the scum would pick higher numbers on this spectrum, as they know most townies would try and pick low but not too low. In the top we have a few gems, chk at 9 solo, with no y=1, and one of these six:
Hoopla 10,1
Le Cupcake 10,6
Jack 11,1
xvart 11,7
Fate 13,1
PranaDevil 13,10

Not too sure about this one. Will need more time, but my best guess would be from the 10 'neighborhood'.

so we have two low numbers (2,3 volkan and ben) two high (chk and someone in 10) and probably one in the middle, at five or six. rabies and iam spring to mind. this list has even spacing, no repeats, and 80% of y values not being one.

with this, here is my scum team
volkan
benmage
chk
hoopla/le cupcake
rabies/iam

I will happily join a bandwagon on any of these people. I will not join a bandwagon, or support in the slightest, one on anyone else. And the fact chk has done nothing but come in and randomly vote me is pretty scumtastic from my point of view.

unvote

vote: chkflip