Mini 1042 - Skillville - GAME OVER!

[hitogoroshi]

We Lynch Scum, putting us in a 0-1-4 endgame.

This one is pretty obvious. We win! Hooray!

However, if we are incorrect as to who the scum are, we are in the 1-1-3 endgame we've already established is a loss. So this is a risky one.

[hitogoroshi]

And finally...

We lynch Demonhybrid, putting us in a 1-0-4 endgame

Scum will nk us into 1-0-3. We can no-lynch and dial it down to 1-0-2. Scum-hunting is much easier then. Worst come to worst, happily-ever-after rules make us play in the 1-0-3.

So basicially, we can either hunt for scum out of the pool of 4 possible now (-1 for observer), or we can hunt in the pool of either 4 possible (-1 for observer) or 3 possible (-1 for observer.) Ideally, we can knock out one suspect. Unideally, we waste a bunch of time before learning we have to make a choice on basicially the same town without DH or myko. I'm inclined to say the later, but I'll give you guys a chance to check my work first.

[hitogoroshi]

Random thought: we can put scum in a kingmaker scenario and hope they like us more than DH... :3

[mykonian]

And finally...

We lynch Demonhybrid, putting us in a 1-0-4 endgame

Scum will nk us into 1-0-3. We can no-lynch and dial it down to 1-0-2. Scum-hunting is much easier then. Worst come to worst, happily-ever-after rules make us play in the 1-0-3.

So basicially, we can either hunt for scum out of the pool of 4 possible now (-1 for observer), or we can hunt in the pool of either 4 possible (-1 for observer) or 3 possible (-1 for observer.) Ideally, we can knock out one suspect. Unideally, we waste a bunch of time before learning we have to make a choice on basicially the same town without DH or myko. I'm inclined to say the later, but I'll give you guys a chance to check my work first.

Scumhunting is easier with less town? I know my game theory, the odds of random lynching increase. But we aren't random lynching, which is why we need more town (and a confirmed one who is telling you that Reck is obvscum, which doesn't seem to enter your mind.).

So ehh,

RECKAMONIC LYNCH PLZ

[mykonian]

Random thought: we can put scum in a kingmaker scenario and hope they like us more than DH... :3

what if we are in kingmaker right here right now? (cause we are)

[hitogoroshi]

It's only kingmaker when you have no chance to win.

[mykonian]

It's only kingmaker when you have no chance to win.

Imagine it is a 3-2-1. we are in kingmaker. What then? (I know my theory and I'm far from stupid)

[hitogoroshi]

Then I don't really care. But there's a chance we're not in kingmaker, and I'm acting on THAT chance. The difference is, the situation that puts the scum in kingmaker would have them CERTAIN they were in kingmaker, and they'd have the freedom to pick a favorite without trying to win instead. I'm just waxing philosophical on that chance because that tree also has some townie wins on it and we COULD force the 1-1-2 prisoners dilemma to a scum kingmaker.

Incidentally, "kingmaker" showed up way too many times in my analysis. It's my opinion that kingmaker is pretty bad design, so this is just my spot for frowny face.

[mykonian]

Good. You might be town.

Reckoner is scum. 90% sure of it (and that is my way of saying 100%, but with humans such a statement is statistically wrong). Reck's actions absolutely don't make sense from a town point of view, but do very much from a scum point of view. A scumlynch is awesome for town (as you said, Hito), and I'm not going to do anything but lynching reck. It is the best move from my point of view, and I'm town. This is because I as a confirmed town provide untainted knowledge to the rest, which we will be missing in a 3p lylo (if we get that). Better make it easy for the town when I'm gone. Scum will nolynch tonight, have fun tomorrow.

[hitogoroshi]

Well if you're set on lynching Reck I think it might come down to our confirmed townie's scumread. I'm happy that there's no chance of that being maniuplated by scum but I'm still kinda getting a townie vibe from Reck.

Myko, is your scumread on Reck ENTIRELY because he wants to lynch DH today?

[Reckamonic]

A scumlynch is awesome for town.

You're very slow aren't you?

[Reckamonic]

Our Options (from what is currently the trend):
a) Lynch DH, shrink the suspect pool, endgame
b) Follow Myko and shoot in the dark, hoping to get lucky with a larger suspect pool, then lynch DH

What the hell is the benefit of b)? Myko is going to die during the night regardless of the option we choose. Call us strange, but we'd rather have to pick the scum in a pool of 2 than in a pool of 3. =_=

[mykonian]

Well if you're set on lynching Reck I think it might come down to our confirmed townie's scumread. I'm happy that there's no chance of that being maniuplated by scum but I'm still kinda getting a townie vibe from Reck.

Myko, is your scumread on Reck ENTIRELY because he wants to lynch DH today?

and the PD bullshit. There is no PD here, but it is a good reason to bullshit your way through theory. Exactly what you pointed out, Reck was clearly overstating the town's win chances.

And contrary to you, who did nice consider NL and lynching someone else as option, he is absolutely set on it. So yes, the fact that Reckamonic is suddenly very good at SK hunting makes him obvscum. From experience I know that it is very easy to fake scumhunting when you are actually allowed to scumhunt on another faction. Its no wonder he looks protown to you, his arguments make sense. However, pieces like:

But we heard about this new thing called lynching claimed scum and are dying to try it.

are clearly scummy. Sarcasm and refering to something that seems obviously true, but isn't in this case. He doesn't explain why we should lynch claimed scum, he says that one should always lynch obvscum. Well, duh.

And then we have the last thing that is really making Reck obvious. If you are scum and you

need

to lynch the SK, you want to make sure you rally everyone for that lynch and be very active. In both 3-2-1 and 4-1-1 the mafia really

needs

to lynch the SK, and see what Reckamonic does? They arguy, they are persuasive while their arguments sometimes lack depth. They are there to convince, not to find out what the best thing for town is (like you did). There is a very clear difference in mentality. They act like they

need

a DH lynch, while town (like you), were trying to find out what the best for town is.

And then the last thing. Reckamonic is clearly aware this is the time for action. He usually isn't overactive, but the last few pages he is unnaturally active here. He can win or lose the game here, so we can't really blame him. But for town, in this frankly (sorry mod but I mean this) stupid and annoying game, there is little to gain. Seemingly there is something to gain for Reck, as this isn't his normal playstyle.

conclusion, Reck is obvscum.

[hitogoroshi]

Damn, that shit's convincing. Given my less-than-stellar performance this game, I'm happy living or dying by a case like that.

On the off chance there's two scum, we're in a 1-1-3 endgame tonight. Let me get a couple of things clear to give us a little bit of a chance.

If there is only one townie alive tomorrow, they are voting for whoever is not Demonhybrid. If there are two townies alive tomorrow, they are both voting to no-lynch.

So, if there is a second scum besides Reckamonic who is Reck's scumbuddy,

you've already lost.

But, you get to pick the winner. To ingratiate the town in your eyes, I present to you a Mitch Hedberg random quote generator.

VOTE: Reckamonic

(seriously though the other townies should also post funny links for our potential kingmaker friend)

[Reckamonic]

and the PD bullshit. There is no PD here, but it is a good reason to bullshit your way through theory. Exactly what you pointed out, Reck was clearly overstating the town's win chances.

I'm not overstating's town win chance. We're fucked if we're not in a 4-1-1 setup and dont lynch both scum and sk subsequentially. we said that already.

And wether you wanna call it "scum kingmaker" or PD, the result it still town cant win, Myko.

And contrary to you, who did nice consider NL and lynching someone else as option, he is absolutely set on it.

we explained very clearly in 1491 why DH is the better option, stop spouting BS

He doesn't explain why we should lynch claimed scum, he says that one should always lynch obvscum. Well, duh

. Oh, let me explain to you why we should lynch scum then. If we lynch town, we lose. OH CRAP!

They are there to convince, not to find out what the best thing for town is (like you did). There is a very clear difference in mentality. They act like they

need

a DH lynch, while town (like you), were trying to find out what the best for town is.

We've already explained multiple time why lynching DH IS what is best for town.

And then the last thing. Reckamonic is clearly aware this is the time for action. He usually isn't overactive, but the last few pages he is unnaturally active here. He can win or lose the game here, so we can't really blame him. But for town, in this frankly (sorry mod but I mean this) stupid and annoying game, there is little to gain.

Our odds of winning are low, doesn't mean we should throw the towel like what you're doing Myko.

Yes, we're active because we want this potential town win, while you, a CONFIRMED town, are pushing for a town-loss.

[Zachrulez]

Unvote:

Want to make sure I've considered everything.

[Zachrulez]

It should be pointed out that DH's claim is intended to prevent any lynch pressure from forming on him on the premise that we should go out and lynch scum.

What if he's actually scum? Then we're vastly reducing our chances to find scum.

[Reckamonic]

Hito fuckin unvote for God's sake

[mykonian]

It should be pointed out that DH's claim is intended to prevent any lynch pressure from forming on him on the premise that we should go out and lynch scum.

What if he's actually scum? Then we're vastly reducing our chances to find scum.

oh for gods sake, just bus. Or don't. Either way, the worst thing you can do is:

1. not comment on Reck
2. actually not do anything
3. acting like you are confused and you don't know what to do.

Seriously, you are tripping every single scumtell for a situation like this. Even lurking is better then this.

[Reckamonic]

Myko, you're putting more faith in a maybe than in certainty here, you're in no position to give playing lessons

[Zachrulez]

It should be pointed out that DH's claim is intended to prevent any lynch pressure from forming on him on the premise that we should go out and lynch scum.

What if he's actually scum? Then we're vastly reducing our chances to find scum.

oh for gods sake, just bus. Or don't. Either way, the worst thing you can do is:

1. not comment on Reck
2. actually not do anything
3. acting like you are confused and you don't know what to do.

Seriously, you are tripping every single scumtell for a situation like this. Even lurking is better then this.

It doesn't really matter what we do if DH is telling the truth about being a sk and there's two scum. Reckamonic may be prob scum or whatever, but as long as DH lives, there's no way the town's going to win.

[Reckamonic]

Let me get a couple of things clear to give us a little bit of a chance.

If there is only one townie alive tomorrow, they are voting for whoever is not Demonhybrid. If there are two townies alive tomorrow, they are both voting to no-lynch.

You're basically saying give the claimed SK the win?

[Zachrulez]

Vote: Demonhybrid

I'd still rather do this.

I'd lynch Reck too if we can't get a majority on DH, but I think lynching DH is the only way the town has any chance of winning.

All attempting to lynch scum does at this point is help further DH's wincon, and there's a chance that he's scum anyway.;

[Zachrulez]

btw, a game setup with a nk immune sk sucks, otherwise we could just no lynch and let some crosskills happen :-s

[hitogoroshi]

Let me get a couple of things clear to give us a little bit of a chance.

If there is only one townie alive tomorrow, they are voting for whoever is not Demonhybrid. If there are two townies alive tomorrow, they are both voting to no-lynch.

You're basically saying give the claimed SK the win?

Oh, I forgot one important bit:

If there is only one townie alive tomorrow, they are voting for whoever is not Demonhybrid. If there are two townies alive tomorrow, they are both voting to no-lynch. If there is a townie alive on Day Six, they will vote for Demonhybrid.

There. Day five, scum lose in 1-1-1, so they no kill. We no-lynch into night. DH can only win if he hits scum. Assuming he guesses correctly, scum die, but get to pick whether one or two townies remain the next day. Scum kingmaker.

Zach, we can choose to follow the confirmed townie's scumread or play the suspicion game tomorrow with all the same characters (I'm sure scum will kill myko.) I prefer the former, I like following people I know aren't lying to me. Depending on the mod's view of happily-ever-after, we MIGHT get to lower the pool by one, but I thought about it and it'd probably be you eliminated. I have to trust a case somewhere, and myko, while he may be wrong, isn't lying to me. Seems like the best deal we're gonna get.