Mini 1057: Unsubsidized Mafia (Game Over!)

[Equinox]

Drop the charade. You didn't need to know about redtail896.

We're walking into 3p LyLo. Since majority have pegged drmyshottyizsik and Equinox as town, one of them will go overnight. The following day, you have you, a strong town read, and the third guy. The third guy is scum, full stop.

That is why I decided instead to just go past redtail896 and lynch Thor665. That and I'm pretty sure redtail896's town; the way he's gone after me today is town behavior, particularly since nobody was supporting a Far_Cry/Equinox lynch. Scum would've looked elsewhere, and I'd imagine leap on the chance to policy lynch when I presented one. It's a nice policy lynch that bears almost zero consequences on scum for following it. (Yep.)

All right, I got the reaction I wanted. Thor665 is town. That means

DemonHybrid is scum

. "What, why?!" Simple. drmyshottyizsik's behavior is town. His meta is to act up if he gets accused of being scum; instead, here, he offered himself for the lynch. I don't think that's a gambit. redtail896's behavior is town. Already explained above. As for me, I am so ostensibly amazing that I cannot possibly be scum. I am solid on my stances regarding these three.

That, then, confirms the worries I had about DemonHybrid. I acknowledge that this is a complete 180 from post 770 onwards where I am adamant about not lynching him, but my reads have changed, and I am not ashamed of that fact (except that my scumdar is as imperfect as ever).

I am going to take the bold step of presenting my case now. Argue with me while you still can, gentlemen.

• On Day 1, page 7, DemonHybrid claimed vanilla townie while at L-2. A number of you noticed how odd this was, yet you still wrote it off as a town tell. Nope! While I can understand town fearing a quick lynch, claiming at L-2 was an extreme move, and as I understand the situation at the time, he wasn't in real danger of being lynched. In addition, DemonHybrid had at least 2.4 months of experience on-site at the time of game start, with much of that experience outside of the Newbie Queue; he should have known how damaging unprovoked vanilla claims were to town. The only reason I can see him doing that is to survive.
• On Day 1, when singersigner presented her "case" against Thor665, DemonHybrid leaped on it. "Scum use sarcasm" is weaksauce. Now, some of you folks say scum don't sheep other scum. They, in fact, do. (For those on the go: Me=Weird, mafia goon, presented a case against a townie. Oso, mafia goon, immediately sheeped Me=Weird's case. Oso got lynched. Me=Weird survived to endgame on the logic that scum don't sheep other scum.)
• Look at singersigner on Day 1, particularly when she's about to go down. She starts voting for DemonHybrid for something at once both perfectly reasonable yet potentially scummy: defending Devon's decision to replace out. That, there, defines distancing. What singersigner did to Thor665 was not distancing.
• New thing I've reconsidered: jimfinn. You
  did
  wonder... Why was he so confident about jimfinn on such flimsy evidence? Gut, maybe. That I can understand. What I do NOT understand is how often he waved "jimfinn was town; ya should've listened to me, I was right!" in everyone's faces following that lynch.

I recall saying that I retracted my scum read of DemonHybrid because of the things he did on Days 2 through half of 4. I guess I will attribute that to good play on his part, as he managed to dodge all the bullets despite making things a bit harder for him.

"Half of Day 4." DemonHybrid refused to have drmyshottyizsik lynched and put his foot down. This may be my bias talking, but he was about to risk a LyLo by keeping someone known to be a loose cannon even in LyLo (sorry, dude), and that decision to keep someone like that around for LyLo is, in my view, anti-town. Scum LOVE having loose cannons in LyLo. No matter what you guys say, I still think a policy lynch was possible on Day 4 without significant damage to town (in this situation, anyway).

I thought about the whole "get a reaction out of redtail896" thing today. I can understand doing it earlier in the game, when there are more suspects to be had. What I don't get is why DemonHybrid needs it so much today when he will have simply solved the game tomorrow. If he survives to LyLo, he has one strong town read (drmyshottyizsik or Equinox), so it's going to be glaringly obvious who the scum is. It's simply a matter of convincing drmyshottyizsik/Equinox, and that can be done with old evidence.

Therefore, I conclude that it was a charade.

Frak. This ended up to be a wall of text.

tl;dr -- Equinox concludes DemonHybrid is the last remaining scum mere minutes before the moon rises.

[Equinox]

EBWOP:

drmyshottyizsik's behavior is town. His

scum

meta is to act up if he gets accused of being scum; instead, here, he offered himself for the lynch. I don't think that's a gambit. redtail896's behavior is town. Already explained above. As for me, I am so ostensibly amazing that I cannot possibly be scum. I am solid on my stances regarding these three.

[DemonHybrid]

You'd be wrong, Equinox. Just saying that now before the day ends and I do a counter-analysis.

[DemonHybrid]

EBWOP: All I ask is that you not auto-vote me Day 5, or you will lose the game for town.

[Equinox]

Well, if I survive tonight, I guarantee you that I will re-read and make sure of my suspicions before placing a vote.

[DemonHybrid]

On Day 1, page 7, DemonHybrid claimed vanilla townie while at L-2. A number of you noticed how odd this was, yet you still wrote it off as a town tell. Nope! While I can understand town fearing a quick lynch, claiming at L-2 was an extreme move, and as I understand the situation at the time, he wasn't in real danger of being lynched. In addition, DemonHybrid had at least 2.4 months of experience on-site at the time of game start, with much of that experience outside of the Newbie Queue; he should have known how damaging unprovoked vanilla claims were to town. The only reason I can see him doing that is to survive.

You have not a clue how many dumb towns quick-hammer people without a claim, do you? I can come up with quite a few games and I always claim L-2 when I can when on Day 1. And yes, I claimed to survive, duh. Why else would anyone claim? Try to tell me how that has more scum motivation than town.

On Day 1, when singersigner presented her "case" against Thor665, DemonHybrid leaped on it. "Scum use sarcasm" is weaksauce. Now, some of you folks say scum don't sheep other scum. They, in fact, do. (For those on the go: Me=Weird, mafia goon, presented a case against a townie. Oso, mafia goon, immediately sheeped Me=Weird's case. Oso got lynched. Me=Weird survived to endgame on the logic that scum don't sheep other scum.)

And you missed the ball just like everyone else did. Thor was voted by me not BECAUSE he was sarcastic, but because his sarcasm was a supplement to otherwise scummy behavior.

Look at singersigner on Day 1, particularly when she's about to go down. She starts voting for DemonHybrid for something at once both perfectly reasonable yet potentially scummy: defending Devon's decision to replace out. That, there, defines distancing. What singersigner did to Thor665 was not distancing.

And...you're going to actually blame me for her terrible argument against me for defending Devon? Please explain this and why you think that I'm in on that argument in more detail.

New thing I've reconsidered: jimfinn. You did wonder... Why was he so confident about jimfinn on such flimsy evidence? Gut, maybe. That I can understand. What I do NOT understand is how often he waved "jimfinn was town; ya should've listened to me, I was right!" in everyone's faces following that lynch.

Dude...I was forced into that argument due to ThAdmiral's vote on me. I did nothing to gloat about jimfinn's town flip, and you know that. Terrible point.

DemonHybrid refused to have drmyshottyizsik lynched and put his foot down. This may be my bias talking, but he was about to risk a LyLo by keeping someone known to be a loose cannon even in LyLo (sorry, dude), and that decision to keep someone like that around for LyLo is, in my view, anti-town. Scum LOVE having loose cannons in LyLo. No matter what you guys say, I still think a policy lynch was possible on Day 4 without significant damage to town (in this situation, anyway).

Take a look at shotty's persistence to oppose anything but his death. He took his vote off of Thor and put it onto me. Do you realize how adamant he was about accepting your plan to have him killed and do you think scum would really do that?

Shotty is the most town out of any of you people.

I do not lynch people who I believe is pro-town

. Your persistence to lynch shotty even though you had a pro-town read on him is

Anti

-town.

I thought about the whole "get a reaction out of redtail896" thing today. I can understand doing it earlier in the game, when there are more suspects to be had. What I don't get is why DemonHybrid needs it so much today when he will have simply solved the game tomorrow. If he survives to LyLo, he has one strong town read (drmyshottyizsik or Equinox), so it's going to be glaringly obvious who the scum is. It's simply a matter of convincing drmyshottyizsik/Equinox, and that can be done with old evidence.

I don't get this. It doesn't work earlier in the game because there are more people to lurk around and not make decisions; that's putting too many eggs in one basket. By having Redtail making a non-selfish decision, it brings a TON of information about everyone to light based on his decision, the flip and the nightkill, and you/shotty fucked it up.

Do not auto-vote me tomorrow if you are town. I guarantee you will be hanging your head in shame for quite a while.

[Thor665]

*sigh*

At least I learned some good lessons this game.

I still think it's shotty.

[Thor665]

You two are just super nervous town.

[DemonHybrid]

You two are just super nervous town.

Equinox's case is absolutely ridiculous. I'm not sure I trust him any longer.

Shotty is fine.

[Equinox]

You have not a clue how many dumb towns quick-hammer people without a claim, do you? I can come up with quite a few games and I always claim L-2 when I can when on Day 1. And yes, I claimed to survive, duh. Why else would anyone claim? Try to tell me how that has more scum motivation than town.

I've seen quick hammers on page 2. It doesn't change the fact that you were more nervous than one would usually expect from a townie. Links where you've done this before would be great, yes.

Scum have more motivation than town to survive, obviously. Not to mention I don't see town claiming at L-2 in a nervous fit every day; maybe it's because I'm hanging around a whole different crowd.

And you missed the ball just like everyone else did. Thor was voted by me not BECAUSE he was sarcastic, but because his sarcasm was a supplement to otherwise scummy behavior.

All right. I'll go and look for this additional scummy behavior. Since you feel sarcasm was supplemental, I feel I have to ask: Why would scum be more likely to use sarcasm than town? What about Thor665's style of sarcasm made it pro-scum/anti-town?

And...you're going to actually blame me for her terrible argument against me for defending Devon? Please explain this and why you think that I'm in on that argument in more detail.

Sorry. I'm hunting connections here, and that stood out to me the first time I read the game. Whether you were "in" on it or not is irrelevant; scum don't plan things like that. My line of thought here was singersigner was trying pretty hard to draw connections to people -- and everyone else to whom she's tried doing so is dead. (Now that I think about it, she didn't mention redtail896. Remind me to look at that.)

Take a look at shotty's persistence to oppose anything but his death. He took his vote off of Thor and put it onto me. Do you realize how adamant he was about accepting your plan to have him killed and do you think scum would really do that?

Shotty is the most town out of any of you people. I do not lynch people who I believe is pro-town. Your persistence to lynch shotty even though you had a pro-town read on him is Anti-town.

I tried to be delicate about this. I guess I have to step on a few toes to get my point across.

I play to win. This includes lynching players who I feel will be detrimental in LyLo. drmyshottyizsik has a record of ruining LyLo for his own faction. I don't care how town he is; I'd take a difficult LyLo with two scummy but more competent players over a LyLo with a loose cannon who is confirmed town.

I acknowledge that he's trying to improve. He has, actually. He's had nice flashes of insight here and there today. Still, it's not enough for me to trust him in LyLo, not after that stunt he pulled with suspecting saporovirus.

I support policy lynches. Forever.

By having Redtail making a non-selfish decision, it brings a TON of information about everyone to light based on his decision, the flip and the nightkill, and you/shotty fucked it up.

What information? It's 3p LyLo. It's you, the town dude who scum would never kill, and... the scum. I thought you were doing this so you could supplement a later case, which I can understand, but when I read your posts, I got the impression you were doing this for your own personal reads, which was an unnecessary step. If it's a {DemonHybrid, drmyshottyizsik/Equinox, redtail896} LyLo, it would be plainly obvious; therefore, you're not doing this to personally know more about redtail896. That made me wonder why you made it out to be a personal quest for information.

Equinox's case is absolutely ridiculous.

I'm not sure I trust him any longer.

Hmm... Interesting.

---

I'll make my posts smaller next time.

redtail896 needs to get in here and throw fuel on the fire.
Thor665, you think nothing of our town reads on drmyshottyizsik?

In other news, happy Thanksgiving!

[DemonHybrid]

I've seen quick hammers on page 2. It doesn't change the fact that you were more nervous than one would usually expect from a townie. Links where you've done this before would be great, yes.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2422774

My very first game.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p2362592

Another.

Neither were L-1.

Scum have more motivation than town to survive, obviously. Not to mention I don't see town claiming at L-2 in a nervous fit every day; maybe it's because I'm hanging around a whole different crowd.

I know I'm town. I'm not going to sit there and be all "awwwwwww guess I'm gonna dieeeee nowwww" when I know that I can do what I can as a VT to help lynch scum. One less townie is a huge detriment to the game.

All right. I'll go and look for this additional scummy behavior. Since you feel sarcasm was supplemental, I feel I have to ask: Why would scum be more likely to use sarcasm than town? What about Thor665's style of sarcasm made it pro-scum/anti-town?

It's a personal experience thing. Sarcasm can swing either way, but like I said, you need the townish/scummish play behind the sarcasm to give it the scum/town motivation. It depends on the context and is very situational.

Sorry. I'm hunting connections here, and that stood out to me the first time I read the game. Whether you were "in" on it or not is irrelevant; scum don't plan things like that. My line of thought here was singersigner was trying pretty hard to draw connections to people -- and everyone else to whom she's tried doing so is dead. (Now that I think about it, she didn't mention redtail896. Remind me to look at that.)

And they were all town. So what is your point?

And by the way: Look at redtail.

I acknowledge that he's trying to improve. He has, actually. He's had nice flashes of insight here and there today. Still, it's not enough for me to trust him in LyLo, not after that stunt he pulled with suspecting saporovirus.

I support policy lynches. Forever.

A townie is a townie. We cannot afford to lose him at this stage, no matter how much of a loose cannon he is. I never meant for either Thor or Shotty to be lynched explicitly, I wanted redtail to choose.

I hate policy lynches so much, especially at this stage of the game. I happen to put my trust in shotty this time.

However, shotty, you need to agree to NOT VOTE until things have settled down during Day 5 and use some really hardcore analysis. Quickvotes lose so many games for town.

What information? It's 3p LyLo. It's you, the town dude who scum would never kill, and... the scum. I thought you were doing this so you could supplement a later case, which I can understand, but when I read your posts, I got the impression you were doing this for your own personal reads, which was an unnecessary step. If it's a {DemonHybrid, drmyshottyizsik/Equinox, redtail896} LyLo, it would be plainly obvious; therefore, you're not doing this to personally know more about redtail896. That made me wonder why you made it out to be a personal quest for information.

Having redtail choose would do wonders for everyone. Not only would we have a flip that COULD be scum if Redtail isn't, but we get to see non-selfish motivations behind his planning and use that to either incriminate or absolve him, then look toward others/more closely towards him if necessary. It's information for us all, not just me, and I would come out with my ideas and analysis as soon as Day 5 is here.

By the way, I'm assuming that everyone here that isn't Thor will be alive; Scum could kill anyone and still make the situation really awkward and tense for everyone, so I'm just speaking in a general sense.

Hmm... Interesting.

What is interesting about that? That case is ridiculous and something scum would love to post before going into the final day.

Scum is between Redtail and Equinox. Not sure who, since there's a big question mark on Redtail now.

[DemonHybrid]

Also, you didn't comment on this:

Dude...I was forced into that argument due to ThAdmiral's vote on me. I did nothing to gloat about jimfinn's town flip, and you know that. Terrible point.

How now, brown cow?

[Chevre]

Vote Count 19

(3) Thor665 (DemonHybrid, Equinox, drmyshottyizsik)
(1) drmyshottyizsik (Thor665)
(1) Equinox (redtail896)

(0) Not Voting ()

With

5

players alive, it takes

3

votes to lynch!
Deadline is

November 25th

.

Thor665,

Mafia Goon

, lynched Day 4

The game is now over. Remaining

Townies

DemonHybrid, drmyshottyizsik, Equinox, and redtail896 have won and lived to see another many days!

[DemonHybrid]

What??

[drmyshottyizsik]

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GOD I'M GLAD I FIGURED THAT OUT!!

[DemonHybrid]

Well then.....good game =). Nearly every one of my reads were right; the win is exactly what I need.

Thadmiral is the only person who's play I had a problem with. Never pull that high noon bet stunt again...also, sometimes people are just right on their reads. Otherwise, good play.

I wonder where redtail is...

[DemonHybrid]

Very simple setup, by the way. Enjoyable and non-complicated.

[singersigner]

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GOD I'M GLAD I FIGURED THAT OUT!!

No. No you did not figure that out. I'm sorry, but I've gotta hand it to Thor. He's MVP of the game in my book. The rest of town got lucky that they had you to be an idiot at the end like you normally are, but for once it actually worked out for them. Sorry dude, this wasn't your game.

[Equinox]

Well, fuck. My scumdar was off the mark...

again

. Perfect time for me to go on sabbatical and learn how to play Mafia properly.

Sorry about that, DemonHybrid.

Good game, all.

[DemonHybrid]

It's okay, Equinox, I still love you.

[Equinox]

Thanks for modding, Chevre! This was a fun setup.

Now that I've actually looked at the flip, I'm surprised that Thor665 was a goon. Haha. Sure teaches me to make assumptions, based on (partial) data or otherwise.

[DemonHybrid]

If you hadn't posted that case, Equinox, I wouldn'tve suspected you; I was 90% sure Redtail was the last scum if Thor wasn't.

[Thor665]

All I really learned was that I should have just hammered redtail when I had the chance and claimed it was 'narrowing of suspects'. Instead I had to play calm town and want to let Equi catch up and that allowed that really random let's lynch Thor plan to somehow form up on me. Terrible play on my part.

Apologies to singersinger for not managing the scum win.

Apologies to town for being scum, I hate having to lie that much.

[DemonHybrid]

Well, your lynch was a mistake, honestly; Although I thought it was a "redtail or Thor" kind of deal, I DID mean for Redtail to pick. Would have given us a wealth of information. If he had picked shotty and gave a stupid reason, I probably would have lynched him unfortunately. A good pro-town reason would have undoubtedly made me turn the guns on you.

It was a tricky situation and you did the best you could with it.

[Equinox]

Instead I had to play calm town and want to let Equi catch up and that allowed that really random let's lynch Thor plan to somehow form up on me.

That made you look really town, actually. The only reason I ran with the whole "Let's lynch Thor665!" thing was I wanted to make sure you weren't scum. You have this strange meta of dying whenever you're town, unless scum deem you some sort of declawed kitten. And you're not often a declawed kitten. >_>;

I wouldn't call it a mistake so much as an unfortunate occurrence. Though nobody would've faulted you if you'd carried on with your threat...