Mini 1042 - Skillville - GAME OVER!

Reckamonic · Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:47 pm

If there are 2 mafia left, we are doomed whatever happens.
No, there is no minuscule chance for us to win.
If there is 1 mafia left, yes we could NL.
But we heard about this new thing called lynching claimed scum and are dying to try it.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:50 pm

I have a feeling you and Zach are the last two mafia. Stop me if I'm wrong. Not that it matters at this point, but I would have expected townies to take the 1%, not the 0%.

Reckamonic · Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:51 pm

The "1%" involves you picking the 50% instead of the 75%.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:52 pm

Reckamonic wrote:The "1%" involves you picking the 50% instead of the 75%.

And? It's still 1%.

Reckamonic · Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:55 pm

ITG, the SK goes "trust me guys!"

We prefer the >1% that the setup is actually badly designed

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:56 pm

Good luck with that then. I bet you it's not.

Reckamonic · Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:56 pm

And on that note, we're done posting for the night.
This argument is going nowhere. The statistics have been proven, both sides have argued their point, and tbqh, this is tiring us out having to repeat ourselves

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:57 pm

Same.

Interesting what the three townies have to say, since you pretty much confirmed yourself as part of the mafia by not choosing the obvious pro-town choice.

mykonian · Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:09 pm

I'm confirmed town!? YAY

DemonHybrid wrote:I'm going to claim. I am a
Bulletproof Serial Killer
. If you need proof, q21 was "Brutally Murdered" and vollkan was "Killed". I targeted Nikanor last night, who was protected by vollkan, no doubt. Alduskkel targeted q21.

I caught scum. YAY

ALSO: I looked at the rules.

"1. Play to win according to your win condition."

This is deterring a lynch, so help me god, if I get modkilled for this like I was in Mafia in Someplace, I will flip out.

and you are right. Quite right.

Now, DH is probably right, and 3-2-1 is a problem. So ehh, I'm trying to think this through... if we lynch correct, DH wins. If we lynch incorrect, Demon has to shoot right to win... and if he succeeds he wins. If he doesn't, mafia wins.

If we no-lynch... DH wins!

So, I'm only here to catch scum, brag around that I found them in 2 real life days, and lose then? Brilliant.

mykonian · Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:11 pm

So, DH where did you get the idea of a SK claiming in this situation? Did you have a recent game where that happened?

hitogoroshi · Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:37 pm

Give me a little bit to run the numbers myself, but I'm pretty sure that Reck is right and we only win with 1 scum remaining. I can TOTALLY see a strong town v. sk and two scum (via the balancing rule "town should have the greatest plurality chance of winning.) And DH seems to be selling us the idea that he'll suddenly do something stupid on the home stretch?

mykonian · Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:00 am

the bragging has to wait. We absolutely need a reckamonic lynch. This guy is beyond obvscum.

Just a hit. Scum can't scumhunt, but want to be seen as scumhunting. Scum can SK hunt, and this is pretty perfect for them. Conclusion, reck is scum. If this is a 1-1-4, we win, as we could lynch DH tomorrow (HINT SCUM, DO THE NO KILL

). If it isn't, scum loses. And that is fine with me.

However, and this the big positive, Lynching scumreck is the only way we win in a 2-1-3. (going to night with a 1-1-3).

vote reckamonic

is the only protown move. DH, join this wagon. 4 to lynch people.

(oh, and I'm not going to switch, because lynching the SK is stupid when you can lynch scum in this scenario. Lynching the SK makes you dependend of the setup. Lynching scum gives you a chance to win in either case, and wins 100% if the setup is in your favor)

HITO: VOTE RECKONER.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:20 am

Unvote, Vote: Reckamonic

Lynching scum helps me in the long run and may help you. I'm glad someone actually sees the situation for what it is.

So, DH where did you get the idea of a SK claiming in this situation? Did you have a recent game where that happened?

I decided to claim for two reasons:

1. Lynch prevention of mine
2. Mix things up a little bit; who would vote for me knowing that scum wins when I get lynched in this situation? The three people who I previously mentioned, of course.

I'm fine with a no-lynch or a Reckamonic lynch.

Reckamonic · Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:25 am

mykonian wrote:However, and this the big positive, Lynching scumreck is the only way we win in a 2-1-3.

That's really pathetic coming from confirmed town
EVEN supposing we're scum, that is a lie in every possible scenario that doesn't include DH

playing directly against his win condition

.

The

ONLY

possible way to win here is to hope there is only 1 scum left, and lynching

claimed scum AKA DH

is optimal in this case.

Did you like, skip the complete last 4 pages?

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:36 am

hitogoroshi wrote:Give me a little bit to run the numbers myself, but I'm pretty sure that Reck is right and we only win with 1 scum remaining. I can TOTALLY see a strong town v. sk and two scum (via the balancing rule "town should have the greatest plurality chance of winning.) And DH seems to be selling us the idea that he'll suddenly do something stupid on the home stretch?

I'm saying it's possible that things may look up for you guys. But look at the game from Mafia's eyes, please. Like I said, you're up against 4 REALLY STRONG town power roles and an SK that can't be killed at night; I'm pretty sure no mod would screw over Mafia that hard.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:43 am

I will be posting from my Droid for the rest of today, so post quality/length/speed may not be up to par. Forewarning.

mykonian · Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:54 am

Reckamonic wrote:
mykonian wrote:However, and this the big positive, Lynching scumreck is the only way we win in a 2-1-3.
That's really pathetic coming from confirmed town
EVEN supposing we're scum, that is a lie in every possible scenario that doesn't include DH
playing directly against his win condition
.

The
ONLY
possible way to win here is to hope there is only 1 scum left, and lynching
claimed scum AKA DH
is optimal in this case.

Did you like, skip the complete last 4 pages?

No, those were actually the only ones I read. Now can we get this lynch please? (seriously, it isn't optimal. The odds don't change if we try to lynch scum today or would try to lynch scum tomorrow after lynching DH. We have one confirmed SK and one confirmed town. In your scenario those two are gone: exactly the same situation as today, if we are going to look for scum.

you are wrong

).

It's very simple. Reck is obvscum. In a 1-1-4 scenario it doesn't matter when we lynch mafia. If we miss, we lose. Since in that scenario we have to look in four players to find scum (as DH and I are confirmed), and 4 if we lynched DH and I was killed: nothing changes. Now the only reason reck is arguing for this is because if there are 2 scum left, lynching DH is the only (and certain) way to win. Which is why we are lynching Reck.

mykonian · Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:56 am

DH, we are lynching Reckoner for being scum. Vote please

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 2:58 am

I did.

hitogoroshi · Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 3:05 am

myko wrote:However, and this the big positive, Lynching scumreck is the only way we win in a 2-1-3. (going to night with a 1-1-3).

Coming into night with a 1-1-3 (and this assumes we correctly lynch scum)

Scum kills town, DH kills town

Town loses.

Scum kills town, DH kills scum

Town wins.

Scum kills, DH no-kills

1-1-2. Spite majority on DH wins the game for scum. Scum lynch wins the game for DH. Town lynch gives either DH or scum half odds but not us. (town loses)

Scum no-kills, DH kills scum

Town wins.

Scum no-kills, DH kills town

1-1-2. Spite majority on DH wins the game for scum. Scum lynch wins the game for DH. Town lynch gives either DH or scum half odds but not us.(town loses)

Scum no-kills, DH no-kills

1-1-3. Lynch DH and play in LYLO.

So the only scenarios in which lynching scum would be a good move would be if DH ended up shooting scum when he has no incentive to. You could hope his scumdar is bad and he hits scum by accident, except HERP DERP WE HAVE CONFIRMED TOWN FOR HIM TO AIM AT.

No killing and town killing are both STRICTLY better for DH than killing scum. He has no incentive to gun for scum. If there are two scums alive, we've lost. Myko, get your vote off of Reck. Let me run the numbers for the possible endgames to see if we should go for DH, no-lynch, or scumhunt past DH (keeping in mind this could be an elaborate scum ploy from DH.)

Reckamonic · Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 3:08 am

Myko, if there is indeed 1-1-4, it doesn't matter indeed when we lynch mafia, that is a fact. Except you're hopping we're mafia when you know that DH is SK.

The odds are optimal because you're taking a chance now instead of later with a smaller lynch pool. Guess what? If there is only 1 scum left, we'll lynch DH, NL tomorrow and our odds at victory will be

better

than they are with your little guessing game.

If there are 2 scum left, we lose in every scenario, so we should lynch with only one scum left in mind.

EDIT: we posted the scenarios on page 84 Hito if you wanna look em up and check whatever you want from there

hitogoroshi · Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 3:10 am

Reck, I saw yours, but I've actually got a bit of a game theory background myself and I think I can simplify it down a little bit beyond "prisoners dilemma" with the actual nice grid in front of me.

Reckamonic · Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 3:11 am

Go ahead, we're in no rush

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 3:14 am

This is not a mafia ploy from me, it's a survival play from me. If you really think I have mafia motivation for claiming fucking Serial Killer with me having one vote on me, please say so, so that I can laugh in your face.

hitogoroshi · Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 3:17 am

Posting each of the sub-cases in separate posts to avoid textwall.

We no-Lynch, putting us in a 1-1-4 endgame

DH still has no incentive to shoot scum. He also has no incentive to no-kill, since both no-kill cells have us lynching him and going to LYLO. So he'll shoot a townie. Depending on whether or not the scum shoot the same townie, we either get 1-1-2 (a town loss, fight between the scum and DH) or 1-1-3 (where we lynch DH and go to LYLO.) We have some slim odds here but I hope we can do better.