Mini 1042 - Skillville - GAME OVER!

Zachrulez · Post Post #1075 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:15 pm

Oh wow...

Zachrulez · Post Post #1076 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:25 pm

My thought is for the town to just vote no lynch and let DH and the scumteam go at it at night. (Because that bulletproof claim could be a lie.)

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1077 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:26 pm

Zachrulez wrote:My thought is for the town to just vote no lynch and let DH and the scumteam go at it at night. (Because that bulletproof claim could be a lie.)

It is not. And I will be targeting Nikanor tonight if you do that :\ Not going to risk killing Mafia and giving you guys the chance to lynch me.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1078 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:27 pm

Well..mykonian now. I forgot Nikanor was replaced.

Skill006 · Post Post #1079 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:28 pm

Fourth Vote Count for Day 4:

DemonHybrid (1) – Reckamonic
Hitogoroshi (1) – Untrod Tripod

Not Voting: mykonian, hitogoroshi, DemonHybrid, Zachrulez

Deadline is Monday, Decemeber 6 10:00 pm CST.
With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1080 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:29 pm

If you need proof, take Night 2 for example; no one died and I'm very sure Mafia targeted Alduskkel. I was never given a list of who Alduskkel targeted, but I assumed vollkan blocked it.

Zachrulez · Post Post #1081 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:33 pm

DemonHybrid wrote:
Zachrulez wrote:My thought is for the town to just vote no lynch and let DH and the scumteam go at it at night. (Because that bulletproof claim could be a lie.)
It is not. And I will be targeting Nikanor tonight if you do that :\ Not going to risk killing Mafia and giving you guys the chance to lynch me.

And what exactly are you going to do if we lynch?...

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1082 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:34 pm

That depends on the flip.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1083 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:36 pm

Haha, I feel like the bad guy in a Batman movie right now.

"It's not about what's right, IT'S ABOUT WHAT'S FAIR!"

Zachrulez · Post Post #1084 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:40 pm

You realize if you openly kill nikanor/mykonian at night assuming 2 scum left, they can just kill another townie for 50% (Which would win them the game depending on how the wincon is worded.)

Reckamonic · Post Post #1085 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:44 pm

analyzing, please dont rush!

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1086 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:44 pm

Zachrulez wrote:You realize if you openly kill nikanor/mykonian at night assuming 2 scum left, they can just kill another townie for 50% (Which would win them the game depending on how the wincon is worded.)

Well....I wasn't going to say that out loud -_-

Yes, they win if there are two mafiosos vs Me and a townie. There would be no concise lynch, and mafia would win.

If you want, sure; go ahead and no-lynch and see who calls the others' bluff.

The outcomes are as follows:

The target me and there's no kill from mafia (1)
They target mykonian (2)
They target a townie that isn't mykonian (3)

I target mykonian (4)
I target another townie that isn't mykonian, and I match their kill (5)
I target another townie that isn't mykonian or their kill (6)
I target mafia (7)

Put two of those together and you have a unique outcome. Quite interesting.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1087 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:46 pm

Reckamonic wrote:analyzing, please dont rush!

Take your time.

What's interesting is to see who decides to want to lynch me anyway; I thought about that too and you have two types of people:

1. Scum that wan't a quick win
2. Townies that think I'm lying about my claim and think Brutally Murdered is just there for show
3. Townies who just don't care about the outcome.

Who knows. There are a few ways this could end.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1088 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:46 pm

*three types of people

I hit submit before editing the first part of my post.

Zachrulez · Post Post #1089 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:56 pm

I'm tempted to just lynch DH in this position, it's quite possible that there could only be a total of 2 scum vs 3, and that's about the only scenario I can see town winning in.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1090 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:56 pm

You guys have a jailkeeper, a cop and masons. You really think mafia could be at such a disadvantage? Because I doubt it.

Reckamonic · Post Post #1091 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:37 pm

DemonHybrid wrote:The reason why I'm claiming this is to put things in perspective and to tell you guys the bad news: Town has effectively lost unless everyone lynches a mafia during the day and I kill a mafia during the night, leaving the game at majority town vs. me.

Theorically that's true, except your argument is flawed by rule no 1. You can't shoot scum tonight, it's against your wincon. We've most likely lost if there are two scums.

Let's assume for a moment that everyone plays correctly (aka to their wincon) and that the town doesnt have an extra doctor.

Case 1: 3town vs 2scum vs 1sk

Case 1.1: scumlynch!

3 town vs 1 scum vs 1 sk

a) scum is shot, SK ends in a town majority endgame,

against wincon

b) one town is shot by both parties, leading to a 2 town vs 1 scum vs 1 sk.

Prisoner's Dilemna with an extra townie

c) different town are shot by both parties, leading to 1vs1vs1.

Prisoner's Dilemna.

Case 1.2: sklynch!

2scum vs 3town

a) town is shot,

game over

Case 1.3: townlynch!

2town vs 2 scum vs 1sk

a) sk shoot scum, scum shoots town.

Prisoner Dilemna

b) sk and scum shoot same town.

If scum has RB scum wins, if scum doesn't it comes down to PM formulation (half the town vs cant be eliminated anymore)

c) sk and scum shoot different town.

Scum wins.

Case 1.4: No-lynch

a) scum is shot, town is shot.

Prisoner Dilemna with an extra townie

b) one town is shot by both parties, leading to a 2 town vs 2 scum vs 1 sk.

Weird ass Prisoner's Dilemna

c) sk and scum shoot different town.

If scum has RB scum wins, if scum doesn't it comes down to PM formulation (half the town vs cant be eliminated anymore)

Case 2: 4 town vs 1 scum vs 1 sk

Case 2.1: scum lynch

a) sk shoots a townie,

town wins

Case 2.2: sk lynch

a) mafia shoots a townie, 3 town vs 1 scum.

Probably NL plus normal endgame stuff

Case 2.3: town lynch

a) mafia and sk shoot same townie, 2 townie vs 1 scum vs 1 sk,

prisoner dilemna with an extra townie.

b) sk shoots mafia, mafia shoots townie, 2 townie vs 1 sk,

town win

c) sk and mafia shoot different townie,

prisoner dilemna

Case 2.4: No lynch

a) scum is shot, SK against majority,

town win

b) one town is shot by both parties, leading to a 3 town vs 1 scum vs 1 sk. Obviously SK is lynched first, then it's 2 town vs 1 scum.

Normal endgame

c) sk and scum shoot different town. 2 townie vs 1 scum vs 1 sk,

prisoner dilemna with an extra townie.

Now then, if there are 2 scum, we lost, plain and simple.

If there is 1 scum left however, the options are somewhat less grim. The options are

a) lynch the one scum
b) lynch the one sk
c) no-lynch

a is a guessing game with a 33% of success, BUT if it hits scum we win.
b can't miss thanks to the claim, but then it's a normal endgame.
c... is mostly unlikely. In this situation DH doesn't want to shoot scum, so scum can shoot whichever scummy townie fits them best.

Our preference lies in option B, and as such our vote will remain where it is.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1092 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:49 pm

Reck, that's fine and good and all, but look at things from the scum perspective. A godfather and a non-killing role (because I guarantee you that would have happened already) vs a BULLETPROOF SK, a jailkeeper, a cop and

two masons

of all things, along with the five VTs...and you think that's scum balanced? I'm telling you for the sake of my wincon and your wincon (like I care, but whatever helps me, I will promote. And a lynch does NOT help me) that lynching me will result in a mafia win and that your best bet as well as mine is to no-lynch or to help me lynch UT or hito, since obviously you aren't going to want yourself to be lynched.

You're going to want to lynch scum or no-lynch for today.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1093 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:52 pm

Trust me, I'm going to think things through tonight and decide what would be the best course of action for mafia to take and who I should choose. It's out of your hands. Taking it into your hands will result in your destruction as well as mine. The enemy of my enemy is my friend (until town needs to die), and if you want a town win by a botched double-mafia lynch/kill situation, accept the fact that it's out of town's hands and into mine/mafia's.

Reckamonic · Post Post #1094 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:58 pm

DemonHybrid wrote:I'm telling you for the sake of my wincon and your wincon.

Our wincon is already dead, buried and slaughtered if there are 2 mafioso left DH. If there are one, your death is beneficial.

We're not unvoting

Reckamonic · Post Post #1095 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:58 pm

*if there is one

Zachrulez · Post Post #1096 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:59 pm

Reckamonic wrote:
DemonHybrid wrote:I'm telling you for the sake of my wincon and your wincon.
Our wincon is already dead, buried and slaughtered if there are 2 mafioso left DH. If there are one, your death is beneficial.

We're not unvoting

Yeah, I've gone through the scenarios in my head, and I have to agree with that assessment.

Vote: DemonHybrid

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1097 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:00 pm

Regardless of the flip and regardless of a choice of no-lynch, there is still a chance I can fuck something up and give you guys the win, but you are handing mafia the win by doing this, guaranteed. Scum can not be this underpowered.

That's my warning to you, take it or leave it, town.

Zachrulez · Post Post #1098 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:02 pm

DemonHybrid wrote:Regardless of the flip and regardless of a choice of no-lynch, there is still a chance I can fuck something up and give you guys the win, but you are handing mafia the win by doing this, guaranteed. Scum can not be this underpowered.

That's my warning to you, take it or leave it, town.

You won't attempt to kill mafia unless it benefits you, and it only benefits you if we lynch town.

DemonHybrid · Post Post #1099 (ISO) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:04 pm

Actually:

Mafia has two choices tonight if you no-lynch: kill a townie or no-kill by targeting me.
I want to kill mafia or not depending on that choice, therefore, a complete toss-up for you guys.

If we lynch town, I'm forced to kill mafia regardless.

If we lynch mafia, I'm killing mykonian.

You lynch me, we both lose, assuming you guys are town.

That's the situation here.