OK, please bear with me here, this'll be a long post. PBP analysis.
I've been absent from the site for awhile, so the fact that the cop has fallen from grace is news to me. If anyone can point me to a discussion on this, I'd be happy to read up on it.
I'm forgoing my notes on the MC unless you want them. I think it's been beaten to death already.
40- I don't appreciate sing's meta-attack on DP. She's basically saying that he's going to lie, which is a somewhat sneaky way of planting the idea that he's going to act scummy. Additionally, she just happens to have had her RVS vote on him, and casually leaves it on him. It could very well be innocent, but at this early stage, it looks like a strategy may be developing. And asking others a series of questions without answering first is bad etiquette at best.
43- Liking this post. HF is thorough and critical.
45- FA makes some pretty banal comments/questions. He asks HF his position on post-D1 massclaims, which was answered in that same post! HF doesn't even seem to realize that in his response. Seems like a rather fluff post went unnoticed here.
47- Emp's misrepresentation of HF's statements continues. Pretty cut and dry example of a strawman. Of course HF's argument sounds bad if you boil it down to "stuff like 'scum will falseclaim'"
53- AD: "I don't want you in lylo"? As in, let's not worry whether he's town or scum and lynch him anyway?
55- DP decides empking is probably town for absolutely no reason. Was that supposed to be a vote for AD? Apparently so, he votes him later.
62- Not sure why emp believes his logic is unrefutable.
65- "…ass I’ve requested earlier…" tee-hee. But seriously, I kinda wish HF would have expanded a bit on his replies to emp's 2nd and 3rd ?s Anyhow, his request for an example of a good D1 MC is completely valid. I'd like to see it, myself.
66- I see AD's point, that emp is possibly taking advantage of an inexperienced town, and yet this is usually the same situation in which experienced players will try out a new tactic, a new persona (though I believe I've played with emp before, and his tone is familiar), etc. I don't know that that is what's going on, and even if so, that doesn't mean he's town, but it's an idea that should be entertained.
68- Something meaningful from DP, and it's a good point, really. Clearly the MC idea has sparked a good conversation, and it's possible that's all it was intended to do. Considering emp's insistence, however, I'm not inclined to believe this. Recklessness = town? Maybe. Town essentially has less to lose, especially at this stage.
69- FA votes DP in part for buddying with emp. This would imply that you believe emp is scum as well, no? But later you say you don't feel that he is obviously scum (72).
70- AD, are you trying to bully people into voting emp? Calling the players inexperienced and weak for not voting emp? At this point, he's probably at the top of my list, worthy of a vote, but there's not nearly enough info to be calling for a lynch just yet. It's only the third page, and there are still people missing!
71- LW has been present but relatively quiet, not contributing much except a slight push on emp. Could be looking for an easy bandwagon.
76- This post kind of blows my mind. So FA is now sure that DP is scum because he is buddying with emp, and yet this is pointing to DP being scum and knowing that emp is town? Am I understanding this correctly? Please let me know if not, because I wonder why you don’t consider the possibility that they’re scumbuddies. I mean, buddying is part of your argument right? Also, like AD, you seem to be saying you don’t really care whether he’s scum or not, we just need to lynch him.
Possible scenario forming here:
AD and FA team taking advantage of strange posts by emp and DP, forming rival bandwagons. Of course there’s the opposite scenario, that emp and DP are an ill-formed team going down in flames very early. And, this only accounts for the most talkative people thus far.
79- FA clears up his stance on emp a bit.
83- I know I’ve been out of it for awhile, but isn’t that exactly what WIFOM is? I’m not sure what LW is getting at here, and more importantly, I’m not sure whether he’s actually taking a stance on anything or just debating WIFOM
90- Who said emp got a scummy for anything related to massclaiming? He got an award for an excellent performance in one game, and we have no clue what that actually was. That doesn’t make him infallible. (I’m in agreement with FA here)
96- DP’s vote on FA just screams omgus.
99- My statement for (90) standing, this is truly a terrible reply. Emp is demanding others to address something that has been beaten to death already, and yet he refuses to respond to several concerns directed toward himself.
101- FA’s question – I’m pretty sure it’s a terrible and even scummy idea to lynch based on stupid play if that stupid play is not also scummy play.
106- She hasn’t said enough yet to warrant too much concern, but it still
really
bothers me that sing snuck in an early vote on DP and was able to leave it there knowing he would unravel.
109- AD SMASH! I see the distraction argument, but more importantly than hurting feelings, there is almost an element of bullying, so that if you can convince everyone they’re being duped by a more experienced player, you can influence their votes.
114- sing is in fact arguing against an irrational DP lynch, which makes me feel better about her.
122- DP: “We should be looking at this game and not discussing player meta and game theory at this point.” So why is this how you ended this post? You almost contribute something meaningful in 125, but it’s still rather unsubstantiated.
123- Emp calls sing either VI or scum, but gives absolutely no reason.
137- The way emp dealt with the MC has been town, DP? Really?
The wifom discussion on p6 here is seriously distracting. Is that intentional?
168- An odd post from DP, he says AD is attempting to set up two mislynches. I think I’m better understanding FA’s earlier argument now. A very possible scenario here is that DP is scum and emp is town, and DP is anticipating emp being lynched with himself as the second obvious choice once emp flips town. The phrase “two mislynches” here is the key.
176- Somehow my predecessor took a path I hadn’t considered at all, and it makes me realize now I have had nothing to say about Nocmen. I don’t know that I agree with Incognito on this one, but I’ll need to pay more attention to Noc. Otherwise, he sums up my thought on sing fairly well.
177- LW takes what is possibly his first real stance in this game, though I’m not sure it’s well-motivated. It looks suspiciously like a bandwagon vote. It’s preceded by one quote, and not a terribly recent one, either.
195- I wasn’t getting scumvibes from Noc before, and this post pretty well sums up my feelings of most of page 8. The MC discussion is incredibly distracting, and LW is seeming more and more to simply be riding the wave. The MC is really all he has to say about emp as of yet, and that seems entirely insufficient.
201- Enter Rhinox. He bases all his reads on the assumption that emp is town. I don’t see anything particularly scummy in this post alone, just a rather hefty and I think unwarranted assumption. I’m hoping there will be more from him and that he won’t ignore the first 9 pages thinking the only relevant happenings are reactions to empking.
215- A more elaborate post from Rhinox, but unfortunately mostly elaborating thoughts on massclaiming, which isn’t all that helpful at this point.
218- A very strange post from sing, which basically says that she gets a good read from Rhinox and will vote with him, not stating any reasons of her own for FA meriting a vote.
229- Rhinox’s arguments concerning emp seem to still be focusing on the MC discussion. Can you address at all emp’s reactions to the others’ reactions? I do appreciate, however, his clearly outlining why he doesn’t like HF’s initial reaction. I’m just not sure that’s enough of an argument to continue with.
230- Sing, are you just going to be ragging on DP the whole time, or are you going to contribute something?
239- Emp declares the FA wagon the only one with decent reasoning, and yet he provides none of that reasoning himself. I’m not sure I agree there is decent reasoning behind it, anyway.
247- DP now agrees that the FA wagon has the most reasoning behind it, and also provides none of that reasoning. Additionally, he has named nocmen and sing as other possible candidates, but does not say why FA should be a better choice. Most importantly, though, he is not voting
any
of the above three people! He is voting AD, and he is the only one. ????
250- A completely incoherent post by DP
273- The fearmongering issue: I see it coming from both singer and AD, frankly. I’ve agreed to the latter, but instead calling it bullying which I think may be more accurate. Singer’s fearmongering started from the beginning, though in a slightly more subtle way, almost like she was joking except not really. At any rate, not sure if Rhinox’s vote on cruelty is all that justified. Cruelty may have simply overlooked AD when considering the fearmongering issue.
Yet, is singer’s fearmongering enough to warrant a vote in itself? DP only has one vote at this point, about 5 hours to deadline, and it’s not even coming from singer. It’s perhaps this fact, and not anything to do with oversight on AD’s behavior, that would warrant a vote on Cruelty. For the record, I don’t think it’s enough, but it has me keeping an eye on him.
D1 ends in a no lynch, which at least two people (HF and Nocmen) were immediately present in the final hours to prevent. HF has apparently misunderstood the rules, and Nocmen refuses to vote FA.
D2 starts with votes left and right, which is normal if they are a continuation of votes left off the previous day, but then emp suddenly votes singer, possibly hoping that no one will notice with all the rapid votes.
295- Enter Corvuus with a list of scum and town reads. What is very interesting here is that he gives nocmen and HF instant town reads because they refused to vote FA (Corvuus’ predecessor), and yet he states earlier that he should have been lynched out of policy. And he finishes with a nice, ‘thanks guys cuz I’m town’, which seems rather disingenuous.
303- Corvuus gets a little omgusy against Rhinox. Freudian slip… eh, you seem to be grasping at straws. In fact, you’re being very defensive considering the wagon on you fell apart at the start of D2.
306-308- A blatant bandwagon vote with absolutely no substance from DP.
318- Another unsubstantial vote from emp. Later he calls him a lurking liar, and while I actually do agree with the first part, I assume the second part is related to the MC debate. Regardless, he doesn’t expound on these things, so they’re rather weak reasoning.
325- LW would have abstained even if he had been present at the end of D1? I’m really not liking the nonchalant attitude toward the no-lynch.
I have to admit, I’ve only skimmed the last few pages, as I have already spent way too much time on this as it is. I’ll get back to recent events soon, but I just want to summarize my thoughts here:
So far, we have a couple lurkers that need to be watched closely: cruelty and LW. I'm more weary of the latter for fairly unsubstantial posting, but cruelty's sing vote also looked a bit opportunistic. Neither was on the FA wagon.
We have a couple VIs: empking and DP. I have very little positive to say for emp, and while I'd like to think he's trying on a new, obtuse personality, he's not acting very pro-town. It's DP that I'm more suspicious of out of these two, however, as he seems to have knowledge of emp's status that would make him have absolutely zero suspicion of him.
I really, really need to stop now. There will be more later, I promise, but I really need to take a break.
<---I'm green from stuffing my face with food. XD