Zachtown in the mountains (Game over TOWN WINS!)

[Lrdwhyt]

Go ahead and restate the Elmo case that you're so fond of.

What are you talking about?

You're piggybacking on others people working merely saying you "like" the case.

State the case for me. Whats not to understand? I'm not asking anything difficult.

No, I did state why I liked it.

It's on page 29 if you want to read it.

You didnt post on pg 29....I am asking YOUUUUUU to restalte the case. Why are you being so difficult? No reason to be.

Use quotes, bullets, summarization...anything but do not stall again.

Difficult what? Stall what? I don't see why that would be necessary. I can read English, my ability to restate the case has nothing to do with my affiliation.

[Benmage]

Difficult what? Stall what? I don't see why that would be necessary. I can read English, my ability to restate the case has nothing to do with my affiliation.

Of course it does. Scum piggyback onto others peoples work all the time.

I doubt you even understand the case your fond of.

You not stating why your willing to lynch Elmo, means I can't illustrate why your reasoning is wrong.

MOD So much for this game being an IC.

Noob policy lynch commence:

Unvote Vote Lrdwhyt

You didn't post for forever, and comeback and piggyback onto others work. Insanely scummy. I don't believe you have a grasp on this game. And you couldn't prove otherwise.

[Lrdwhyt]

Difficult what? Stall what? I don't see why that would be necessary. I can read English, my ability to restate the case has nothing to do with my affiliation.

Of course it does. Scum piggyback onto others peoples work all the time.

I doubt you even understand the case your fond of.

You not stating why your willing to lynch Elmo, means I can't illustrate why your reasoning is wrong.

MOD So much for this game being an IC.

Noob policy lynch commence:

Unvote Vote Lrdwhyt

You didn't post for forever, and comeback and piggyback onto others work. Insanely scummy. I don't believe you have a grasp on this game. And you couldn't prove otherwise.

No, I'm pretty sure I already stated why. Why don't you read the first post of mine you quoted?

[Benmage]

Anyways, I do like the Elmo case,

especially his uninteresting comment and lack of stance.

VOTE: Elmo

After not posting for that long ...this is not sufficient. And when you say like the case and highlight the aspect you like the most, means theres other things contributing. What are the other aspects of the case is what I wanted to know.

[Benmage]

Infact when you quit stalling and try being town and helpful go ahead and illustrate (maybe quotes) where he has uninteresting comments and lack of a stance.

I want specifics.

[Lrdwhyt]

Infact when you quit stalling and try being town and helpful go ahead and illustrate (maybe quotes) where he has uninteresting comments and lack of a stance.

I want specifics.

It wouldn't make sense for me to stall as scum or town, unless the case was completely invalid and I realised too late. Otherwise, unless I'm incapable of speaking English properly, it's not that difficult to summarise a few paragraphs. And I'd be avoiding it, not trying to stall it.

It sounds like you didn't read it, but do you think the case is invalid?

Here you go:

It depends precisely what you mean by scummy. For example:

2. Her Benmage case, especially after the DF flip,

2. LOL This is why I have a town read on her.

HEY THOR!!!!

This is the reason why BS is both town and an easy mislynch. Noone but a huge dumbass would attack me after the DF lynch.

The point being that, if BS were scum, she would realise that she has no realistic chance of getting Benmage lynched, and wouldn't attack him; the only case in which she would do that is if she genuinely thought he was scum, where she has to

try

regardless or lose the game. As such, he doesn't think it's scummy.

Now, there may be other things that are "really" scummy, but I haven't seen them, albeit I haven't reread BS yet. (I have my own view, but it's uninteresting.)

Not answering Mina's questions and you can't really illustrate a lack of stance unless you quote his entire ISO.

[Benmage]

Infact when you quit stalling and try being town and helpful go ahead and illustrate (maybe quotes) where he has uninteresting comments and lack of a stance.

I want specifics.

It wouldn't make sense for me to stall as scum or town, unless the case was completely invalid and I realised too late. Otherwise, unless I'm incapable of speaking English properly, it's not that difficult to summarise a few paragraphs. And I'd be avoiding it, not trying to stall it.

It sounds like you didn't read it, but do you think the case is invalid?

Here you go:

It depends precisely what you mean by scummy. For example:

2. Her Benmage case, especially after the DF flip,

2. LOL This is why I have a town read on her.

HEY THOR!!!!

This is the reason why BS is both town and an easy mislynch. Noone but a huge dumbass would attack me after the DF lynch.

The point being that, if BS were scum, she would realise that she has no realistic chance of getting Benmage lynched, and wouldn't attack him; the only case in which she would do that is if she genuinely thought he was scum, where she has to

try

regardless or lose the game. As such, he doesn't think it's scummy.

Now, there may be other things that are "really" scummy, but I haven't seen them, albeit I haven't reread BS yet. (I have my own view, but it's uninteresting.)

Not answering Mina's questions and you can't really illustrate a lack of stance unless you quote his entire ISO.

So why have you been avoiding giving a summary?


That's your case???!!!??!?! I don't even know where there's a case within that quote.....What question didn't Elmo answer from Mina (And on a side note....that would be your whole case??? The fact that Elmo didn't answer a question....wow)

Summarize what you mean by lack of a stance. Surely you can add some sort of explanation of what you mean. No way you need to quote his whole iso, but maybe some glaring points that help explain/define what you mean. Because I've been in this game. And I disagree. So help me understand your point of view.

[Elmo]

But what I find really off is that he hasn't even reacted to the fact that his one major scum read (Red Coyote) was wrong.

I'm not sure what kind of reaction one would expect. I don't base any of my reads on his alignment, so I don't need to re-evaluate any of my current reads; I still think the case is fundamentally good, so due to that and the impending deadline it's going to be difficult to distinguish between townies and scum jumping on the wagon. Beyond "oops I suck" or (in this case) "dangit Red why didn't you answer my questions", neither of which are terribly productive, I'm not sure what you're getting at.

When I ask him this: {post #653} He ignores

every single question

This is a mistake on my part; I didn't intentionally ignore it, I put it off and then forgot about it. You can see that there's a long time between iso #34 and iso #35, the response being iso #36. I was reading the game and couldn't remember the last time I posted, but I thought it'd been a while, so I made that as a prod-avoidance-post until I could get to the game tomorrow or the next day. Real life, I suck, etc. When I came back to make iso #37, I remembered where I'd read to, but forgot that I needed to respond to something before then. You could just have said, like, hay Elmo why haven't you answered my questions?

flippantly admits to enjoying the drama between me and Benmage.

Absolutely. I think it's deeply amusing, on the level of a good sitcom. I have no idea why you think that's scummy. (I can see why you'd find it

infuriating

... but not anti-town.)

who he thinks will win the avatar bet.

If it isn't obvious, I think you're likely to win the bet if Ben is town purely based on the number of townies in the game. That is, I think the prior probability of Percy being a townie is sufficiently high that it's very difficult for a good player to get the posterior probability low enough to make the bet a good move, remembering that Ben's opinion was formed on Day 1. If Ben's scum, it doesn't matter, so only good (and by good I mean hilarious) things can happen from my point of view (in the context of the bet, obviously a mislynch is bad).

-Mentions the obvious reason for why havingfitz was NK'd (he replaced someone on the DF wagon) rather dismissively

i just skimmed havingfitz to see who he was suspicious of (possibly why he died?)

He replaced Oso, who was quite strongly on the Dry-fit wagon; I believe that's why he was killed.

I think it's unfair to characterise that as dismissive. I don't see any implication that I'm necessarily right, or he should stop thinking about it; the reason I pointed out the obvious is that it's only obvious if you remember that fitz replaced Oso, which I for one didn't.

(ignoring the juicier question of why havingfitz was killed over Locke/IaI/jason/Benmage--I have suspicions on this, but I'll save them for later)

I'm not if you're implying this is scummy or not; I didn't think much about it, but I don't think it's that juicy. Iai and jason look much more lynchable than Oso in the long run; Benmage is probably generating friction with townies that looks potentially exploitable and/or they think he'll lead the town astray in the future; Locke isn't doing vast amounts. I think in retrospect it's not a terribly interesting kill.

However, there's one thing I missed, which is that if Benmage is town, he's a pretty obvious kill by most standards if Percy is scum. Leaving him alive pretty strongly points to Percy being town if Benmage is town.

asks Percy a few decent questions (although a bit redundant, since Percy had already explained his DF suspicions several times),

I don't believe he has answered those specific questions, as I said in the post.

and makes a reasonable point for why Percy would be less likely to vote RC as town (this I like, but it's not brilliant analysis and would be easy to fake as scum, particularly since he's not defending Percy with much passion--he agrees with Thor, but then he qualifies his town read with a seed of doubt).

I also don't understand why Percy didn't vote Red yesterday if he's scum; he'd only has one buddy to swing the wagon, so it seems rather risky.. I think it's extremely dubious as town, but I've seen far more town do it than scum.

I don't believe that's true. I don't know what you're referring to; I said it's extremely dubious as town, because it is, it's simply bad play. The reaction I expect includes people pointing out it makes no sense, so I think it's correct to acknowledge that before saying that it's typically more frequently from town, since the thought process that prompts that action is much closer to a townie's mindset. (I have been in at least one game where we lynched town instead of scum because the lynched townie refused to vote for the scum, believing they were town. One game on Day 1, after I pushed for the SK lynch; I was quietly

displeased

.)

I don't think I ever even

used

the words "IIoA." My case had to do with Lrdwhyt's weird backtrack on jason and I am Innocent, his lack of scumhunting, his unexplained reads, and his defence.

Hm, fair. I observed the above, and thought I remembered you saying something similar, I don't think I actually checked back (wallposts, partially) to see the whole thing. I only skimmed your case, since it was so close to deadline and I was already voting the person with the most votes.

I'm also kinda interested in lrdwhyt.. I do agree with Mina a bit, some of his posts seem too close to IIoA for comfort. Definitely, I would like to see more stated reasoning rather than just conclusions. I'm not sure whether to push this by itself, or file it under "wait and see".

And how did you leap from "IIoA" to "stated reasoning rather than just conclusions"? Information Instead of Analysis means that on the contrary, he

isn't

giving conclusions, just talking about neutral facts. Those are two completely different, unrelated charges.

Yeah, this is my bad. What I am trying to describe was the way he made statements like in #462, "Elmo seems pretty decent. / Don't have anything on Locke Lamora, strangely. / Mina is kind of scummy." and not giving much, if any detail about the reasoning behind those conclusions. That is, he was giving us information about what his suspicions were, but not showing any analysis of how he got there. I didn't read closely, but I thought that a lot of his posts were in that vein. I actually do know what IIoA means, I figured it could be applied to that but obviously it's unclear. (I also believe IIoA can apply when people give conclusions, since those aren't actually analysis, but it's tangential.)

And what the hell are you talking about in the last line? Push

what

by itself? Why the hell wouldn't you try to pressure Lrdwhyt if you suspect him?

I don't think it's a good idea to attack him on that basis alone, because it's too weak; firstly, it's just not that strong a case, maybe he's town and hasn't got his teeth into the game yet, and secondly because a weak attack tends to undermine later attacks, even if there's subsequently much stronger evidence. If he's scum, then hopefully this prompting will either get him to produce analysis which can be used in a stronger case (or gain a town read if he's town), or it'll become obvious over time that he's deliberately not doing it when asked.

However, if this by itself is too weak, then I can't really attack him for it, and he doesn't have any incentive to come up with the goods. This is (admittedly perhaps poorly done) a way of trying to find out how others think this should be handled, and what they think of that pattern (given I didn't read his posts closely, whether it exists at all). To some extent, I was thinking out loud.

Oh, and another question. What did you think of imkingdavid's play?

At the time, I thought it was somewhat sketchy, inthat he only made one sizeable post with a lot of oneliners that didn't seem to go anywhere, but when he announced V/LA and replaced out, I chalked it up to him being distracted with real life concerns. I also didn't like this much:

Anyway, just did an ISO of Benmage. His first few posts are about as obvscum as you can get. First, he complains about not being scum (yeah... right...). Then he says we should not use one of our lynches, which is a terrible idea, and then he immediately changes his mind when someone calls him on it, as if he didn't know.

I thought that was obviously a mischaracterisation, and a fairly scummy attack, but there was so much confusion surrounding it that I didn't press it further. In retrospect, I remembered I didn't like a post of his, but it's rather scummier than I remembered.

-One-liner asking Sotty how she's distinguishing between BS being scum and a VI. Fair enough, although still easy to fake and diminishes Sotty's pressure on Baby Spice. Elmo, I'm just curious. Why did you choose to ask Sotty this question?

I thought that the way she interacted with Baby Spice was odd; I'm not sure if I remembered at the time, but the combination of this looked odd to me:

My vote on jason has never been easy or weak. I've been pushing this bloody wagon uphill all the way. I've been pointing out everything that points to jasonscum since his first serious post of the day. My vote is not weak.

It's easy and weak in my eyes because I have played a bunch of games with Jason. This is how he fails as a townie, he acts before he thinks. As scum he is much more calm and controlled. I don't agree anything he has done today is obv scum at all.

I've been saying for awhile now that I think he is town. He has a tendency to get into trouble like this because he tends to play on emotions and will just knee jerk to everything. As scum he is much more composed.

Benmage is still arrogant scum, nothing changed there. Seriously 'confirmed' in this game means you're dead and flipped. Claiming otherwise is scum trying to make themselves into a white knight and lead the town to a loss.

No.

Sotty, Mina. You both seem to be having a go at each other, but are both voting the same player. It makes me think that one of you is faking the discussion/arguement, which is scummy, whilst buddying up to them, which is also scummy. Or that one of you is bussing hard and trying to use the other as cover.

Vote Lrdwhyt

This paragraph and vote do not match with each other. I can't speak with Mina but I like to engage my suspects to figure out better if they are town or scum. Ftr, right now I am starting to lean towards Mina town which is an almost 180 from my position at the start of the day.

Your reasoning is bizarre and what makes it even worse is that you

join

the wagon myself and Mina are on. WTF?

Unvote, Vote: Babyspice

I think Baby Spice's behaviour looks quite like jason's in certain respect. If you look at how she's arguing with Benmage, I think that's a least a significant contributor to what she's saying; she certianly seems the type to wear her emotions on her sleeve in a way similar to what Sotty described. I would have thought that, seeing what happened with jason, she might be slower to attack someone who displayed similar behaviour. In the quoted post, she appears to be voting BS largely for bad logic, which I believe is probably null.

-But then, defends BS by saying that

Benmage

thinks BS would know not to attack him were she scum...but then quickly backpedals by saying this is just what Benmage thinks, and she

may

have done other scummy things, although he's not sure what they are:

It depends precisely what you mean by scummy. For example:

2. Her Benmage case, especially after the DF flip,

2. LOL This is why I have a town read on her.

HEY THOR!!!!

This is the reason why BS is both town and an easy mislynch. Noone but a huge dumbass would attack me after the DF lynch.

The point being that, if BS were scum, she would realise that she has no realistic chance of getting Benmage lynched, and wouldn't attack him; the only case in which she would do that is if she genuinely thought he was scum, where she has to

try

regardless or lose the game. As such, he doesn't think it's scummy.

Now, there may be other things that are "really" scummy, but I haven't seen them, albeit I haven't reread BS yet. (

I have my own view, but it's uninteresting

.)

The bolded line in particular is horrendous. Seriously, how did no one notice this? Not "I'm going to stay silent so as not to influence people's reactions." Because his opinions are "uninteresting." Why did you even post such useless fluff? Give us your uninteresting opinions on Baby Spice,

now

.

Because that doesn't refer to my view of Baby Spice, that refers to the very general idea of "what is scummy?", which is what I start my post off by referencing; I've re-added some of the quote which was snipped, because it's easier to see in context. The specific point I am responding to was:

1. BS is doing horribly scummy things.

and this is difficult because I only see her do things like use dubious logic; the question then follows whether bad logic is scummy. I would answer no, not necessarily, but people have reasonable disagreements with my viewpoint - the problem is that this is a theory debate, and it rarely if ever goes anywhere useful, and to a large extent Thor already sees what I'm getting at. So, I don't think it's productive to state anything further. (I'm really not sure how that's consistent with me needing to reread her, anyhow.)

Also clarifies in his next post that it's not his opinion and he doesn't "wholly agree" with Benmage's logic, but that he doesn't like the reasons people are using to attack Baby Spice.

I think it's more like, to me, it's actually pretty unclear why people are attacking her, and from where I'm sitting my guess is that it's things I think are null, like the aforementioned. But it's entirely possible I'm missing something. I think Benmage is probably right, but I think it's a weak tell and he puts too much faith in it.

-And his last post starts off with okay points in response to Thor on how his town read on Percy would depend on how Percy explains his DF stance, and how he can see more of a scum motivation for Percy's behaviour than BS's (which is reasonable, albeit it could be worded more precisely, but still really obvious and a bit on the IIoA side).

It's not IIoA because I am responding to Thor specifically comparing the two:

I can see that argument. Do you see my points on Percy though? Other then getting personally offended at Benmage (shock) his great scumtell is not liking the Dry-fit wagon. That can come from town just as much as BS's actions could (I've certainly been the town idiot caught defending scum before).

and it is clearly not obviously true to him.

So...um, he agrees with Thor's read on Percy...but is unwilling to defend him, even though he's already weakly defended Percy several times in his earlier posts...because there's a

reasonable chance

he's scum.

I did not say I was unwilling to defend him. I said I was not super happy about defending him. If what I am saying was right, then my read of him is close to null; I get zero town cred if he gets lynched and flips town, and I get a lot of flak if he's scum. So, I think it's a losing proposition for me, but I don't see a better option.

And he doesn't have

any confidence

in BS being town...even though, if you've been following this case, he defended her before from Sotty's attack just a few posts by saying he thought some of the arguments against her were spurious. He needs to reread her. Um...

what

?

This is also correct. I believe the case against her appears bad. That does

not

mean I think she is town; similarly, I have a null read on her. I do not think anything I've seen her do is something she'd be significantly more likely to do as either alignment, and considering what I have just said about her case, it's easy for people to think that I believe she's town because I just defended her.

Oh, and...maybe DF was bussed. Maybe. Just maybe, one of the confirmed players might be scum. He doesn't know. He doesn't want to start conspiracy theories, of course, not too early

when there are viable mislynches on the table

...but he'd be happy if

you

all shared your conspiracy theories, so he can decide if they're worth bandwagoning.

Problem: I was on the Dry-fit wagon. If I'm scum, scum did bus, and we need to lynch at least one person on that wagon. Obviously this question concerns whether or not we should lynch people on the wagon, and I want to see what people think, but whether or not they're mislynches is exactly the question I'm posing. Thor, for example, has said he would bus; I think that's useful information.

As we lynch more people who were off the wagon, like we're probably going to (at the time that was written), and they flip town (if scum bussed), then the probability of scum having bussed goes up. Like, if there's one living player who wasn't on the wagon, and nine dead townies who weren't on the wagon, it's probably a bad idea to lynch them just because they weren't on the wagon; at some point, the number of bodies speaks for itself. However, we've had one mislynch already; deciding, for example, to lynch Benmage because Red was actually town is clearly premature, because it relies on essentially an implausible conspiracy theory for justification. And one does see these things, like there are players who would be suspicious of Benmage purely because it's hard to get an accurate Day 1 lynch unless scum lead it; it's literally like a conspiracy theory. I don't want to go there, because it's not like we've lynched many people yet, but I'm unsure about the correct time to start thinking maybe we're not right.

Specifically, if I was asked what the typical play would be, I would answer probably one scum on the wagon and one off. That means if we lynch scum off, we might keep looking off-wagon too long due to earlier success.

Oh, and he hasn't followed up on the Lrdwhyt suspicions he mentioned above--even though Lrdwhyt is the only player he seems to be suspicious of so far.

I don't believe I said I was suspicious of him. I said I was interested, inthat I mean I think he needed to be at least poked at a bit, and maybe something scummy will fall out, but don't think I'd seen anything scummy from him. (Amongst other things - wait for it - I need to reread.)

Instead of coasting, why didn't you just get off your ass, reread Baby Spice, and then come back to us when you had something constructive to add? Or just reread Percy's more recent posts explaining his change of heart on Dry-Fit, and provided your own analysis on whether you thought his excuses were plausible?

I'm not sure precisely why you think I'm coasting; I've actually had real-life stuff since around the end of Day 1, but coasting would imply that I'm sitting here deliberately not working in order to spite you. Obviously, I can play better if I spend more time on mafia, but that's always true; if you think this is insufficient, then the thing to do would probably be suggesting that I replace out, although obviously

now

I'm loathe to do that. Ug.

I should reread his Day One, because I remember feeling that he was townish at certain points, but his Day Two posts are scumtastic, particularly coming from a

strong experienced player

.

I'm not even going to go there, but I am curious why you have that impression of me.

He has zero conviction or passion, has put no pressure on anyone (he still hasn't voted), and his picture could appear in the dictionary beside the word "wishy-washy."

I'm not passionate about mafia as either alignment, I'm not sure why that's a tell. With respect to pressure, I didn't feel that anyone needed more pressure; in terms of the popular wagons, my impression of the game was that Percy was the likeliest lynch and shouldn't be pressed further without a better case, that pressuring Baby Spice would be counter-productive, and that I didn't have much leverage to pressure LrdWhyt with, and jumping on because "lol wagon" would have been greeted with distaste; in retrospect, I wish I had reread the case and pressured him, but that's a symptom of being behind generally. I don't think voting anyone else would have caused much pressure without a convincing reason for others to hop on, which I don't have.

Seriously. I'm an indecisive, waffling player. I know what genuine indecision looks like. This is not it.

I don't think I'm being indecisive. I actually think my opinions have been quite consistent, it's simply that I think a lot of the arguments out there are bad, and I'm behind on the game generally; I'm also finding it hard to find stuff when rereading, and some of it's very unclear. I'll probably just reread the entire thing soon.

But in perspective, we're still somewhat early on Day 2 in a large game. We had one scum lynch, and what to draw from that wagon has largely been what I've asked about, and another lynch that I do not think is terribly helpful as previously stated. In that context, I do not think it's horrible to not have strong scum reads when the number of scum is lower than usual. To be blunt, I believe I am thinking about the game more than e.g. some of the Baby Spice voters precisely because of that. While it's fairly obvious how it might benefit scum, I haven't seen an argument as to why I'm supposed to hold strong opinions as this point, or even how having null reads of several people is necessarily less than ideal play.

How about you rank all the players in the game according to your suspect levels?

I don't know what a suspect level is. I now have a mental image of this with things like "suspect level fuchsia" written on it. Thanks for that.

JasonT1981 - I think the way Dry-Fit freely jumped on him makes him very likely town.
Benmage - My early town read is pure gut, I think, but his role in the wagon boosts that some.
Thor665 - Thor seems pretty townish to me. I actually liked Nikanor a bit more with time.
I Am Innocent - I really think the thing with the numbers was genuine.
~~~
Locke Lamora - Mostly for being on the wagon in a good place, he's kind of a wildcard due to not doing much though.
Mina - Mildly townish 'till now, weird absence around the Dry-fit wagon iirc. Probably I'm OMG-U-Rock-ing; it's fairly weird to attack me now if she's scum.
KaleiÐoscøpe - Hard to read. Not that convinced with respect to the Dry-Fit wagon; he had a good reason, but (typically) didn't push it with any force.
Percy - Due to the end of Day 1 & Benmage not dying. Both of those reasons are somewhat thin, though.
~~~
Sotty7 - Something of a wildcard to me. Arguably the likeliest forced-busser on the Dry-Fit wagon. Haven't really seen anything I'd consider townish.
Baby Spice / Furcolow - They look really really null to me. On some level I want to think they're both town, but I have no idea how I'd figure out they're scum.
Lrdwhyt - I am just reskimming Mina's case and it actually looks pretty good. Also, the recent hop is pretty lolbad from my point of view (sup Benmage).

I would probably guess Lrdwhyt and Sotty at this point.

[Benmage]

Elmo, me not dying in relation to Percy is a lot of wine. However before my head usually implodes from thinking on it I get the feeling that it further implements him as scum, not town.

On phone, but bare with me.

At the end of D1 I was pushing hard the Percy wagon but somewhere towards the end things shifted onto RC. I got mad, and whatta ya know a townie was lynch. Had I been killed last night everyone and their mother would've been like woah obviously Percy who was Ben's sole and total suspect would want him dead. GG lynch Percy. And Percy would've been hung with ease.

So my reasoning for Percy further being scum is twofold. As scum he'd know ninth killing me that early with pressure still surrounding him would spell utter doom. (So he chose another obvtown and put me o. The backburner to hope to wiggle through another day with fools like Mina and Thor and worshippers like furc)..

Point two why he's still scum, is an oppossing scum faction worth 2 cents would've ninth killed me to easily implicate Percy as an easy first mislynch....since this scum team didn't do that, Percy must be scum and we refer back to point one.


So you see why me living further implicates Percy and why it is he who should be hanging!!

[Benmage]

Not sure why ninth popped up twice in that last post...damn phone, I think the first is suppose to be "that".... no clue on the second.

[Elmo]

...devil in the details and all that. VOTE: Lrdwhyt

Elmo, me not dying in relation to Percy is a lot of wine.

I agree; it depends on what the scum think we would do. I think that towns have a consistent record of not analysing nightkills, so I personally would have killed you (sorry!), but without knowing exactly who they are, it's hard to know whether scum have the same viewpoint. However, there's also the factor of whether you'd lead a Percy lynch if left alive - I actually came into today thinking Percy would be lynched pretty much regardless. If they think that, then it makes sense to kill you anyway, since Percy is dying either way, and they have to kill you at some future point when Percy flips. So for them, it's a decision of which risk they'd prefer.

But yes, it is rather WIFOMy and I totally understand people disagreeing with me on that.

[Locke Lamora]

This post was made after Dry-fit had already been lynched, so there's not really much point in saying that he was slightly scummy.

That was one of the posts I was referring to. There's another comment that refers to it before RC gets lynched, where you say:

RC's going after jason's slip doesn't make him look any better.

My point is, at the time of your first catch-up post where you talk about Jason, you say you've read the game. You've obviously familiarised yourself with Jason's posts, and you know enough to say that he's not that scummy and that there are better lynches out there, mentioning a DF vote without saying why you'd want to vote him. You don't vote, you don't focus on players who you think are scummy, and you don't comment on the players who jumped on Jason for supposedly making a slip - you just say it's 'dumb'. By the time we're nearing the RC lynch, this 'dumb' attack on Jason has turned into one of your reasons for backing his lynch. If that's your attitude to those who jumped on the slip, and DF was one of the most blatant attackers of Jason for this reason, why did you neither spend your first post looking at DF's play, nor vote him for doing something that you later state is scummy, yet still felt the need to include him in a brief passing note?

I didn't vote him because, as I had stated, I wanted to give him a chance to get on and respond to the accusations before doing such a thing. And I don't necessarily feel that those who thought jason had scumslipped were suspicious - just that they were wrong. It is more likely for scum to jump on such a thing than town. Also, I wasn't really backing his lynch - I thought him a better lynch than Percy.
[/quote]

But you quite clearly use RC going after Jason's 'slip' as a point against him. Are you saying that you don't think Dry-fit doing it was scummy? Was Dry-fit your leading suspect at the time you made that first post?

So we have both Benmage and Sotty starting wagons, on different people, and then jumping off when they reached L-1.

I have no idea what to make of that

, though it is hinky to then see Ben asking why the Percy wagon stalled.

Bolded for emphasis. What is this doing in here? You clearly do know what to make of it; you think either Sotty or Benmage has started a wagon on their buddy and hopped off it late on (which is quite the leap, by the way). Why did you say this and then follow it up with a vote for Sotty doing exactly that? Why are you scumhunting based on links with players who haven't flipped yet? Is there a reason you repeatedly give yourself either-or scenarios for scum without delving into much analysis? The following examples are apt: Jason or Nikanor must be scum, either Sotty or Mina is scum, now Sotty/Lrdwhyt or Benmage/Percy are scum.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

Why is Percy not dead yet

[Furcolow]

unvote

VOTE: lrdwhyt
elmo's recent post warrants an unvote
i could see it being lrdwhyt and sotty
i am voting lrdwhyt not as a wagon, but because i dislike his refusal to provide a case to benmage
that sort of shit is intolerable and frustrating from the perspective of a townie

[Sotty7]

Sotty, what questions? I believe the only one was did I find your vote scummy, and I think me calling you my top scumspect kind of answered that. But le me make this clear.

Sotty7's unvote of Lrdwhyt and vote of me was scummy, scummy, scummy! It reaked of sotty panic jumping off of a bus she had started.
Nothing here that I've said is new, except for repeating scummy a few times, so when Sotty asked her question I had already answered it. Again.

You obviously don't know me very well. If I decide to buss my partner, I stick to it. I won't lie, as scum I bus often and bus HARD. Just check out my wiki, Gonzo mafia and Tubby's open game at Warren state hospital are two very big examples.

IF Lrd was my buddy and I was on the wagon ON THE GROUND FLOOR, there is no way... No way I would unvote.

“Oh but Sotty, you jumped off your so called buddy because if you lynched him you'd be all alone. You panicked!”

Let me once again reference Gonzo mafia. I lost both my buddies on back to back days (one and two) while in the middle of it having no night. To to push some bullshit that I panicked in this situation is stupid. I've been there, done that and won a game pulling that move before. To compare the two situations scum are in a better position in this game than I was at the end of day two in Gonzo.

Baby you ignored what I wrote, just because you vote me doesn't answer all my questions. You replied to my vote with situations that only involved me staying on the Lrd wagon. You never even addressed my vote on you accept to OMGUS it.

Your case on me is “your Lrd's buddy” if that is the case you should be lynching him first NOT me. Unless you want to make a case?

As for the unvoting while he was at lynch -1 I repeat again the vote count was wrong, I had no clue he was at lynch -1. You do seem desperate for me to put my vote back on Lrd even though you won't vote him yourself. I'm not sure I understand why that is seeing as, according to you, the only way I can be scum is if he is.

= = = = = = =

I think Baby Spice's behaviour looks quite like jason's in certain respect. If you look at how she's arguing with Benmage, I think that's a least a significant contributor to what she's saying; she certianly seems the type to wear her emotions on her sleeve in a way similar to what Sotty described. I would have thought that, seeing what happened with jason, she might be slower to attack someone who displayed similar behaviour. In the quoted post, she appears to be voting BS largely for bad logic, which I believe is probably null.

No, I'm voting Babyspice for pushing scummy logic. Jason's slip wasn't a slip and therefore

wasn't

scummy.

There is no parallel. Try again.

Also extremely unimpressed that you are also pairing me with Lrd like your BFF Baby. But at least your voting the right way round unlike Babyspice.

= = = = =

Lrd's vote on Elmo is awful it does not count as scum hunting. Benmage's push on him is good in that respect.

My love for Locke is strong in this game.

Jason is getting lurky. He should fix that by coming back and voting for Babyspice.

[VP Baltar]

5th Vote Count of D2 P1

Baby Spice - 4 (Percy, Sotty7, Thor665, JasonT1981)
Lrdwhyt - 4 (Locke Lamora, Benmage, Elmo, Furcolow)
Elmo - 2 (Mina, Lrdwhyt)
Percy - 2 (I Am Innocent, KaleiÐoscøpe)
Sotty7 - 1 (Baby Spice)

Not Voting:

If I made any mistakes please politely point them out and I will correct them.

Deadline for Day 2 is Monday, December 6 at 8am CST

With 13 alive it's 7 to lynch.

[Sotty7]

Oh, Jason is already voting for Baby.... So umm... Ignore that. But he should still come back and play the game. Lurking isn't cool.

Same can be said for Percy. I'd like to see some input from him soon.

[Thor665]

I'd actually also love to see which of the two top wagons IAI would prefer to support presuming he can stop screaming about me and Percy for a few moments.

I'm actually pretty torn right now because Benmage's actions on Lrdwhyt were awesome and telling and I'm loving how he no longer looks rage tunneled. I'm super stoked about getting either of the top wagons lynched.

[jasonT1981]

Yea, i been totally having mafia burnout at the minute I still think BS is the best lynch. Will have a look back at the past few pages and try and comspose thoughts soon, text walls atm = giant headaches!

[Benmage]

I am still raging. But cannot stand such blatant difficult, obstinate, scummy behavior.

That said I'd be willing to ensure a BS lynch before the early deadline, especially if it'll help incriminate Percy.

[jasonT1981]

then... why is your vote not on BS or Percy?

[Benmage]

At any point Percy would appear to be a viable lynch I'd be voting/hammering him no questions asked. I think BS is a town village idiot and therefore a mislynch. However as our lynch one deadline draws near I have no problem switching my vote to ensure the lynch especially since I think it will further implicate Percy.

That said if I recall (since I'm on my phone) BS was also someone I named undesirable to have around lylo. So its all wins in my book.

[Benmage]

Oh, and if it wasn't obvious during that back n forth with lrd, I couldn't sit there and let that utter antitown behavior go unchecked. I reluctantly had to vote him.

[I Am Innocent]

I'd actually also love to see which of the two top wagons IAI would prefer to support presuming he can stop screaming about me and Percy for a few moments.

I'm actually pretty torn right now because Benmage's actions on Lrdwhyt were awesome and telling and I'm loving how he no longer looks rage tunneled. I'm super stoked about getting either of the top wagons lynched.

Considering I would rank Baby Spice and LrdWhyt the same as far as scumminess/towniness, I would probably vote Baby Spice just to incriminate the pair of you further.

I will give it another day or two to see if the Percy wagon can pick up steam again, otherwise I will move my vote to help ensure a lynch.

[Percy]

1. It could be a slip, or just poorly chosen words. Did she ever explain herself?
2. What's wrong with her Benmage case?
3. Yes, this looks like a thoughtless bandwagon vote, which is strange because she's accusing the two people on me.

Not a very compelling case, I'd say.

1. No, in fact she seems to have ignored it completely, unless I've missed her response.
2. The argument is that Benmage is arrogant scum, and that his initial proposal to use only one lynch was somehow motivated by scummy intentions. I just don't get it and don't see it. It feels extremely forced, like the anti-town nature of Benmage's initial plan is being spun for all its worth.
3. Glad you agree that it's strange. There's definitely enough weird reads coming out of this slot to earn my vote.

Percy, maybe I missed it, but can you elaborate on:
# Why you originally put Dry-fit on the scum list
# Why you preferred the other wagons (Red, Benmage, Furcolow, maybe others I missed) to Dry
# The interaction between your read of Benmage and Dry's wagon (and timing)
# Why specifically you say you're "nowhere near sold on the Dry-fit case" in #389?

I originally didn't like Dry-fit for opportunism, both wrt I Am Innocent and jasonT1981. I stated my reasons for liking RedCoyote, Benmage, Sotty and Furcolow in my ISO, and Benmage pushing the Dry-fit wagon made me like it less. Whilst I saw the opportunism, I didn't see the case developing and instead saw people mention the same thing over and over again. The Dry-fit case had people like Baby Spice introducing points against Dry that didn't really add up (the "anit-town plan" business) and ended up sounding much more like a deadline lynch, example:

unvote
vote: Dry-fit

Sorry dude, I get a town read on ya but we have to move this game forward to give us time for a 2nd lynch D1.

...and I felt very cautious about it. I was genuinely surprised when he flipped scum.

Another thing that's bothering me is that open, all-vanilla setups are, by a long way, the best kind to bus in. I don't want to start the conspiracy theories too early, but I would actually like to hear from everyone what they think about the possibility of Dry being bussed by at least one buddy.

I sort of agree with this:

That said, as a Day .5 lynch I would tend to expect the buddies to be a little less pleased with the idea and more likely to be on the tail end of the wagon then the front.

Of the wagonners,

Havingfitz

, Locke Lamora, Benmage, KaleiÐoscøpe, Sotty7, Elmo, I Am Innocent, Furcolow, JasonT1981

I'd say the worst are actually the players in the middle, based both on their position and their votes/cases. In fact, looking over Elmo's ISO, I'm quite surprised at how little Dry-Fit discussion there was.
It's hard for me to criticise people vaccilating over Dry-Fit, for obvious reasons, which is something Sotty appears to do. However, I'm pretty sold on my townreads on all but the middle three, so if there's scum bussing we'll find them there.

Mina's vote on Elmo was quite surprising, but I nodded along to the case. Mina called him on the right things, imo, but the clarifications seem consistent and I found myself still with a townread of Elmo by the end of his defence. I'm keen to hear more from Mina, but I don't suspect Elmo at this time.

I still like my Baby Spice vote. I don't buy her "it was all a ploy" defence, and now she's voting Sotty:

Sotty7's unvote of Lrdwhyt and vote of me was scummy, scummy, scummy! It reaked of sotty panic jumping off of a bus she had started.

This is not plausible, from both my experience of Sotty and from her stated reasons for voting you. Still, I'm also really liking the Lrdwhyt case. I think Benmage's pressure is just right.

I'm going to wait for Mina and put together my own version of the Lrdwhyt case before my next post and see how it compares to my Baby Spice case. But for now, BS's incredible amounts of cognitive dissonance sustains my case just fine.