Mini 1064 - Charlie's Town (Game Over!)

[Casus Belli]

I haven't had a chance to talk to my other head about how this turn of events changes our reads so I'll only offer our thought processes going into the mass claim yesterday. But I'm sure I speak for my other head when I say we really blew it big time and that we don't really expect to survive through today and wouldn't blame the town for lynching us. I know I wouldn't have even given the courtesy of unvoting to hear us out.

So we are not a full tracker; but a one-shot tracker. And when we said yesterday we had been knocking it back and forth about masf all game in our hydra QT it was a little more than that. We thought 99% that masf was scum and so we decided to claim a result we didn't have as a gambit for a couple of reasons. First, we would get a lynch on scum. Second, we thought that if we claimed full tracker and lead the lynch on masf with our result that we would most likely be the NK and would save the other PRs since we were essentially a VT and had nothing left to offer when our other PR counterparts might still be able to get information last night. We went back and forth about it when the mass claim came up and definitely figured we would be the NK or at least survive if Reck protected us and we would be in even better position tomorrow with two nights of no kills. It was a high risk high reward play (although we honestly thought it wasn't that high of a risk at the time) that was an epic failure.

Masf wouldn't have been too hard of a lynch to push through anyways which is why we decided to full out claim to help draw a NK and save the other PRs.

As for our one actual result; we did claim it yesterday. CES did not go anywhere N1.

[LlamaFluff]

So why did a "went nowhere" result make you think CES was scum? I have been a tracker before and "no result" I always took as a slight town tell since there are statistically far more VT then scum who would not act. In most normals that would be at MOST one scum who fits that niche.

So you are a scum tracker, jmurph is something decent since you were so hesitant to vote him (he the RB?) and Spy is goon (maybe GF) which is why he did the hammer? Am I anywhere in the ballpark there?

Either way... CB scum means that reck and CES are probably town. I think that leaves Sub as the town in the remaining players, maybe spy but im actually leaning to him being scum from that if jmurph is scum. Both you and spy did a wierd little move once I threw down the jmurph case, like you wanted the day to end somewhat rapidly.

[Substrike22]

CB, entertaining your notion for a second, who do you think is scum?

[xvart]

Again, I'm speaking out of turn here without conferring with my other head, but since we've sort of reached critical speed I figure it is pertinent to answer tonight.

So why did a "went nowhere" result make you think CES was scum? I have been a tracker before and "no result" I always took as a slight town tell since there are statistically far more VT then scum who would not act. In most normals that would be at MOST one scum who fits that niche.

You are speaking out of context here, as our claim post yesterday and our D1 views will show. Our result did not make us think CES was scum as you suggested. His behavior and views did. We tracked him N1 because of our suspicion of him from D1. Our lack of result weighed against his behavior did not give us a slight "town tell" or make us less suspicious of him, simply because he could be a mafia goon.

I remember someone mentioned yesterday why scum would do a one for one trade with a town member. This is a pretty relevant question, especially considering our credibility in the game yesterday versus our targets credibility. I know our credibility is now shot, but what possible scum motivation would we have had, when none of our alleged team had died, to sacrifice ourselves at the expense of one claimed VT?

CB, entertaining your notion for a second, who do you think is scum?

We'll let you know once we've had a chance to knock heads together tomorrow.

[Casus Belli]

^^This is why I am not the dominant poster.

Again, I'm speaking out of turn here without conferring with my other head, but since we've sort of reached critical speed I figure it is pertinent to answer tonight.

So why did a "went nowhere" result make you think CES was scum? I have been a tracker before and "no result" I always took as a slight town tell since there are statistically far more VT then scum who would not act. In most normals that would be at MOST one scum who fits that niche.

You are speaking out of context here, as our claim post yesterday and our D1 views will show. Our result did not make us think CES was scum as you suggested. His behavior and views did. We tracked him N1 because of our suspicion of him from D1. Our lack of result weighed against his behavior did not give us a slight "town tell" or make us less suspicious of him, simply because he could be a mafia goon.

I remember someone mentioned yesterday why scum would do a one for one trade with a town member. This is a pretty relevant question, especially considering our credibility in the game yesterday versus our targets credibility. I know our credibility is now shot, but what possible scum motivation would we have had, when none of our alleged team had died, to sacrifice ourselves at the expense of one claimed VT?

CB, entertaining your notion for a second, who do you think is scum?

We'll let you know once we've had a chance to knock heads together tomorrow.

[LlamaFluff]

So why did a "went nowhere" result make you think CES was scum? I have been a tracker before and "no result" I always took as a slight town tell since there are statistically far more VT then scum who would not act. In most normals that would be at MOST one scum who fits that niche.

You are speaking out of context here, as our claim post yesterday and our D1 views will show. Our result did not make us think CES was scum as you suggested. His behavior and views did. We tracked him N1 because of our suspicion of him from D1. Our lack of result weighed against his behavior did not give us a slight "town tell" or make us less suspicious of him, simply because he could be a mafia goon.

If if and buts were candies and nut... something something I forget how the rest goes.

Look. In a standard 12 player game with no SK, what would you think a setup looks like? I think most people would end up with something along the lines of "One or two scum PRs, two to four town PRs". Now, look closer at scum side, everything points to a RB in this game, so thats one trackable role, leaving two scum roles. That means that in the best case of only one active scum role, you had about a 1/10 chance of tracking the one scum who had no action. Now lets go look at the town side of that equation: Two to four town roles, means that we have five to seven VTs. Five to seven, versus one. That means that you track someone nowhere and they have (drumroll) a 80-90% chance of being VT. That is one thing people so horribly underestimate about the strength of the tracker, negative results are a town tell. You tracked someone nowhere, which means they are an exact member of a scum team, or the much more likely VT. You respond by jumping right back on him, that does not make sense. This is not a gamblers fallacy, this is basic stats. Just like how a gunsmith with a positive result claims given that his target is much more likely scum then cop/vig.

I just cant believe for a second that you guys had not noticed that. A no result is a significant town tell, especially in a PR heavy game.

I remember someone mentioned yesterday why scum would do a one for one trade with a town member. This is a pretty relevant question, especially considering our credibility in the game yesterday versus our targets credibility. I know our credibility is now shot, but what possible scum motivation would we have had, when none of our alleged team had died, to sacrifice ourselves at the expense of one claimed VT?

I would have done it in this situation. You claim guilty, M gets lynched, doc gets RBed so nacho dies, you get lynched, doc dies. Thats one scum for a VT lynch and two dead PRs. Helluva deal. Plus there is the "tracker" thing where we had a cop, and a JOAT who had a track ability. Two different roles with tracker abilites and a cop does not compute, and the JOAT is already proven.

CB, entertaining your notion for a second, who do you think is scum?

We'll let you know once we've had a chance to knock heads together tomorrow.

Well what do you think? Its not like hearing every idea from both heads can be a bad thing here. I am thinking that you are just in lockdown mode not wanting to do anything. Im thinking N1 that nacho tracked one of reck/CB to the other. Not much else makes sense.

[Substrike22]

Reck who did you save on N1?

[Substrike22]

Substrike: why does Nacho being confirmed town make his suspicions/thoughts any more legitimate?

Spoiler alert, it doesn't.

And...now that you mention it...we never got full results from every night from CB, did we?

CB. FULL CLAIM. IN YOUR NEXT POST.

Also anyone who flips town in my book makes their reads more legitimate. It means that it's not scum trying to pull wool down over people's eyes. It makes me more inclined to look at that player and consider what they were saying, particularly if that player proved themselves competent throughout the game; which Nacho clearly had. I'm at least willing to consider the possibility that a proven-town JOAT, with at least a decent thought process, had a fairly good reason for believing the hydras were aligned. I'm not sure how, and I'm wishing he'd elaborated yesterday, but there's nothing we can do about that now. Also, for some reason, I'm more inclined to vote jmurph than CB right now. Just throwing that out there.

[jmurph3]

You're more inclined to vote for me than for the person who misled town into lynching a townie? 0.o Care to explain?

[LlamaFluff]

Yes yes... we both know you each think the other has to be scum. Either of you actually think otherwise?

Also Sub, CB is almost for sure scum. Go read what I said about his reaction to a no result. Also go look at how town would have to of had a cop, JOAT (risky but strong one), full on doctor and one shot tracker for him to be town. Im thinking its town strong info + strong protect + weak combo, followed by scum tracker, scum RBer and tossup between GF and goon. Stop making me wonder if its between you and jmurph instead of you and spy.

[SpyreX]

Spy have you been screwing with me and it you-CB-jmurph?

What are you playin at?

I didn't even want to bother with this garbage. And look, its garbage.

Unvote, Vote: CB

[Substrike22]

Yes yes... we both know you each think the other has to be scum. Either of you actually think otherwise?

Also Sub, CB is almost for sure scum. Go read what I said about his reaction to a no result. Also go look at how town would have to of had a cop, JOAT (risky but strong one), full on doctor and one shot tracker for him to be town. Im thinking its town strong info + strong protect + weak combo, followed by scum tracker, scum RBer and tossup between GF and goon. Stop making me wonder if its between you and jmurph instead of you and spy.

Ok I buy this and will vote CB. But, I still want to know Reck's N1 save, because I want to know how Nacho "knows" they share alignment. Reck saving CB on N1 doesn't commit them to being buddies, provided that Reck's a strong protect as you imply. I just wonder if it's part of the reason Nacho established the connection. I have literally no other reason to suspect Reck, which is why this is bothering me so...

VOTE: Casus Belli

[Reckamonic]

I believe we saved CB N1.

[LlamaFluff]

I swear that better have not been a scum victory hammer, even though it seems to have been an accidental one from town. Either way it was too soon since there was still information we could possibly have extracted from CB and more importantly reck.

Also you are really paranoia-ing me Spy. With two scum in three people, I return to feeling uneasy over you. Either way at least there are three basically confirmed town at this point. So yeah *twitch*...

Two of Sub/jmurph/Spy, remember that folks.

[LlamaFluff]

Ah... ninja'd

Yeah nacho tracked reck to CB night one with all probability.

[SpyreX]

Jmurph for sure.

Am I missing something from the before times or where did CES go?

[LlamaFluff]

Jmurph for sure.

Am I missing something from the before times or where did CES go?

He migrated south to townville after CB became scum.

[SpyreX]

It WAS CES that was all over CB, wasn't it?

I'm just making sure I didn't miss a 'cleared' because YOU for sure + Reck mostly + ??

[LlamaFluff]

It WAS CES that was all over CB, wasn't it?

I'm just making sure I didn't miss a 'cleared' because YOU for sure + Reck mostly + ??

+ CES

Yes. Also it was CES all over CB.

[SpyreX]

IF CB is the RB then I can dance with that a lot more.

But, don't you make them silly cleared businesses yo because you and I both know nothing feels as good as throwing dead weight under the bus.

[LlamaFluff]

Ehhh... im still going to bet against that being the longest most awkward bus ever and say that CES is town for latching onto CB starting day two and CB being all over CES for most of the game as well means that CES is going to be town. Would you be happier if I said that CES is the last non-cleared person that I would want to lynch in this scenario?

Also CB is not going to be the RB, pretty sure of that one. Question is are we looking at goon or tracker. I actually think we are looking at tracker or maybe a direct cop counter (GF/frame).

[SpyreX]

Much better. We haven't had a good track record with things going WELL and as you've got a signed death warrant if we pull it together the last thing I want is someone to go OMG CLEEEARRED

[LlamaFluff]

Well I dont want the normal stuff happening where I say "Hey this X is town" then I get killed, and soon after everyone goes "hey we should lynch X" as I swear at people from beyond the grave.

I really see CES as rivaling reck for most obvious town right now. There is no way what happened was a bus there.

[Charlie]

Vote count 20

Casus Belli (4) - jmurph3, Cogito Ergo Sum, SpyreX, Substrike22

Not voting: Reckamonic, Casus Belli, Llamafluff

Casus Belli been lynched.

--In the world of organized crime, the Mafia use various ways to earn a living and make the big bucks. One such way is by exploiting the sex industry, and this is a very lucrative source of income--

"Casus Belli!", one of you shouted.
"There's word on the street that you're involved in the business of pimps and prostitution, what do you say to that?"

"No way. You've got it all wrong, my hands are clean.", was the reply.

"Oh really? Sources in indicate otherwise. Come, follow us to the town square. Bring some long rope."

"You're crazy! What sources? What's the crime?"

"Google. The crime is for being the suspected head of the business. Come come, chop chop!"

So there was much shouting and protest at such a violent nature to deal with a suspected crime lord, but strangely it was all from the lynchee, who didn't even provide the requested rope. Talking about the modern legal system, justice, law, bla bla bla... That's not the way its done in this Town. It is unique.

After buying some extra strength ultra durable synthetic rope from the local hardware store, Casus Belli was lynched mercilessly in the town square. The council people don't know it yet, but their suspicions of the nature of the lynchee would be proven true.

Casus Belli, Mafia Roleblocker, Lynched Day 4

Mafia Roleblocker:

You are a mafia roleblocker. [The rest of the role PM is redacted for obvious reasons]

Nighty night 4. As usual, it lasts 72 hours, and send Night Actions in by then if you have one.

[Charlie]

Everyone wakes up feeling lousy and depressed. The air is ominous this morning, unlike the cool crisp air you're normally used to experience on most mornings. Reckamonic was found dead in an alleyway during the night. He was apparently beaten up and left for dead with multiple comminuted fractures in at lower limbs. Findings in the skull include fracture of the base of skull and a large subdural haematoma. Defensive wounds were found as well. You know all this because the autopsy was done by his colleagues in hospital; as he was a respected member of the medical profession as well as a proud member of the town council.

Reckamonic, Doctor, Killed Night 4

Doctor:

You are a town doctor. Each night you may choose one player other than yourself to protect from the kill. If successful, this player will not die during the night. You will not be notified concerning whether your protection worked or failed. You win when you eliminate all threats to the town.

Day 5 starts now. With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline is Thursday, 16th December at 0800 hours (GMT -5)
Moderator deadline time: Thursday, 16th December at 2100 hours (GMT +8)