Mini 1057: Unsubsidized Mafia (Game Over!)

[Thor665]

@Shotty - considering the play from Day 1, what makes you think Far_Cry/whoever replaces in is really the lynch for today? Wasn't singersinger trying to get him lynched?

[drmyshottyizsik]

Yep, I just voted to jump start the day and actually get people here and posting

unvote

He's not the lynch for today, that's why I felt safe voting for him

[Thor665]

[DemonHybrid]

..hmm.

[DemonHybrid]

Couldn't be. nhammen tunneled way too hard to be singer's partner.

That looked weird, shotty, but I'm not willing to vote you. I had to think about it.

[DemonHybrid]

Honestly, I'm starting to believe it's between redtail and Thor. Something about the end of Day 3 and Far_Cry's weirdness makes me think that scum would be more calculated than to go back and forth like he did and then completely ditch the game.

I still want redtail's thoughts and Far_Cry's replacement's thoughts before I decide on a vote.

[drmyshottyizsik]

RT and Thor are my top two as well, but honestly DH you are still lingering in my mind

[redtail896]

Sorry for disappearing at the end of D3 there.

I want to hear more from FarCry's replacement before commenting on that spot.

In terms of connection to Singer, DH clearly has the most obvious connection. In fact, the connection is so blindingly obvious that I'm inclined not to believe it. Again, it would require DH to jump on the Thor bandwagon immediately after singer started it, and I just can't buy that DH would do that.

The reason I'm reemphasizing this is that, if I operate under the above assumption, then the other scum

did

bus Singer, at least to some degree. I'm tempted to say that "this person was instrumental to the case against singer" is no longer an acceptable defense (yes, that applies to me as well). The question is, where does this leave us?

[Thor665]

I want to hear more from FarCry's replacement before commenting on that spot.

You really don't have a read on Far_Cry currently?

In terms of connection to Singer, DH clearly has the most obvious connection. In fact, the connection is so blindingly obvious that I'm inclined not to believe it.

Yes.

The reason I'm reemphasizing this is that, if I operate under the above assumption, then the other scum

did

bus Singer, at least to some degree. I'm tempted to say that "this person was instrumental to the case against singer" is no longer an acceptable defense (yes, that applies to me as well). The question is, where does this leave us?

You do realize that everyone not involved in lynching singersinger is already dead. So...yes.

I'm leaning redtail/shotty

Redtail has been flying much more under the radar then I expect from him, and though I've had a general pro town feel from him It's starting to feel that that read is more from lack of anti-town energy then real existence of pro-town energy. Even his quote above that I'm agreeing with - that's the second time he's said it. Brilliant and new insight right there.

Shotty is a little harder to get a feel on. I actually liked nhamman's play for the most part but in looking back he does have some odd interactions with singersinger early on - the oddest being his sort of weird softsell of her case right at the end where he's asking if we're sure we want to lynch her and if we should ask for a deadline extension. Bad vibes there. After that he pretty much went under the radar as he flaked out and shotty is...well...shotty, and I've yet to discover a way to meta that ridiculous personality.

DH and FC are town.

[Thor665]

Vote: drmyshottyizsik

If it's a two man and doesn't include him we're already doomed, and I think I dislike nhamman's end of Day 1 paired with shotty's "let's start conversation by voting town" more then I dislike redtail's soft town vibe.

[redtail896]

I want to hear more from FarCry's replacement before commenting on that spot.

You really don't have a read on Far_Cry currently?

I do. If Far_Cry's replacement hasn't posted in the next 24 hours, I will say it anyway.

[Thor665]

Do you expect FC's replacement to change the read?

What are your shotty thoughts?

[drmyshottyizsik]

really thor? wow.

vote redtail

[Thor665]

What's so 'wow' about it? (unless you mean 'wow, that's an awesome vote that pegged scum' - but I'm guessing you mean 'wow, that's dumb/odd')

Is it more or less dumb/odd then your opening vote on FC today?

[drmyshottyizsik]

I explained my vote on him, it was harmless

[Thor665]

My vote's harmless too - so we're all jake.

[DemonHybrid]

Vote: Redtail

.

I may be jumping the gun here a bit, but I feel much stronger about my scum read on redtail than my uneasiness with shotty. Thor pretty much hit it right on the nose.

Thor: Honestly, I lost my read on Far_Cry. I'm not sure what to make of his laziness and replacing after ThAdmiral flipped.

I'm probably leaning slightly more toward town. Wouldn't you, as mafia, stay in the game if you knew a townie was about to get lynched?

Here's to hoping I'm right.

[DemonHybrid]

I'm thinking, if no one auto-hammers redtail, someone come along and hammer him after some time and a claim. That means:

-Redtail is scum

and/or

-It's not quite LyLo yet

So, time will tell.

[Thor665]

@DH and Shotty - redtail case? i really am hoping you guys have more then I sort of vaguely mumbled out.

@DH - I do tend to put a lot of weight into the timing of FC's replace out as evidence he's town. Also, singersinger's rantings on him Day 1 didn't look like a bus to me, and there was never really a case on him Day 2 and his actions there looked pretty town in his opposition to the Nexus wagon (he never defended Nexus, never called the case bad, he just sort of stubbornly clung to jimfinn - that's town with a gut read in my eyes).

[DemonHybrid]

Sure, I'll get one out when I'm through with classes. In a nutshell, he has been really passive on his views, not really quite lurky. And it's been like this this whole game, especially when there's a lot going on with it.

Case to come later.

[Thor665]

Knowing the nutshell is functional enough for me, as the nutshell is basically my shell (if you have any brilliant scum slips to show that might excite me, but a wall post showing how he's not been very active/opinionated will bore me, so please don't do that)

Is there any particular reason you think his passive play is worse then nhammen/shotty's actions? The two actions there that really twig me are, as mentioned, shotty's FC vote today and nhammen's 'we need to decide if we're really going to lynch singersinger, and if not we need to ask for an extension' commentary at the end of Day 1. What is your take on those two points?

[DemonHybrid]

As far as nhammen's actions at the end of D1 goes, I think nhammen was being pretty careful and see nothing wrong with him asking for an extension if singer wasn't going to be lynched...maybe he just had a good read. I just find that he focused way too hard on singer in a probable 2-scum game to be the other scum. 1 scum vs 9 townies is intimidating as hell, so keep that in mind.

I think shotty's vote for FC today is shotty being shotty. I'm just going to look past it as a newbie mistake this time after knowing shotty's meta. Besides, he's been making a lot of sense this game; you can tell he's thinking about his actions before doing them for the most part.

redtail is smart enough to know how much information we need at this stage in the game, especially Day 3. You simply cannot active lurk after Day 2 and have it be acceptable, so I think he has something to hide.

[DemonHybrid]

I'd give it a few more hours (until 8ish or so tonight, EST) before I can effectively conclude, at least for myself, that either redtail is scum and/or this is not LyLo. I think we're in good shape.

[redtail896]

Well, I gave FC/replacement 24 hours.

So, Far_Cry is starting to look like the remaining scum to me. There are two main parts to this thinking, but both are basically rooted in how he responds to attacks against him:

1. Overdefensiveness

2. Agreeing with the attacker/concession of the point

Let's look at some examples.

In Post 59, FC begins by conceding Thor's main argument (that FC was making useless posts while encouraging others not to do so). Indeed, there's no real attempt to defend his actions; he simply agrees that he acted scummily and moves on. Post 65 (his next post) is far more intriguing; he starts off with another concession to Thor's main argument, but then becomes incredibly defensive when called a hypocrite. The switch in tone from FC's first paragraph to the second and third is quite staggering.

Post 73 doesn't actually add much to this argument, but I want to note FC's 2nd paragraph here. In it, he says that he doesn't find Thor scummy despite the attack against him, but that Thor is an "interesting" character and should be watched carefully. This is rather blatant fence-sitting, and is the first time that FC will "absolve" his attacker. Next, in Post 111, FC claims that Thor's attack was "reasonable," and then the overdefensiveness returns in the last little paragraph.

Not directly related, but I want to note the much discussed Post 156 here. Not only did FC claim to believe the VT claim right off the bat, but kept his vote on even after admitting that he shouldn't have. Again, a weak response to an attack, basically conceding that the attacker was right and trying to absolve himself of any suspicion in doing so.

Post 163 then his next real response to an attack, and again he responds, rather then actually addressing the point, with insults and anger. The actual argument against the attack seems half-hearted at best.

This is FC claiming to not see any merit to the arguments against him,

despite conceding multiple points to his attackers and admitting play mistakes that could be taken as suspicious

. In the mind of FC, it seems that admitting to a mistake removes the need to actually take responsibility for it.

Post 231 is FC again conceding that his attacker has a point (attacker is nhammen this time) without ever actually taking the time to refute the argument. Post 324 is more overdefensiveness (really, at this point I'm mostly just listing more examples). 361 is his response to DH's attack (which I actually think is his most comprehensive defense to date) and that whole chain follows for some time, but notable is post 376, in which he states his belief that, despite DH's "flawed view" and misrep, DH is town.

Finally, for completeness's sake, here is FC's response to jimfinn's attacks.

In short, what I find suspicious about FC are his responses to attacks against him. He will often simply admit fault rather than actually refute the attacks, and failing that becomes defensive and angry. He rarely if ever finds his attackers scummy (jimfinn being the exception, and we can all agree that jimfinn was an easy target).

Nhammen/Shotty: Honestly, reading over nhammen again, I can't find a real reason to think he was scum. I could argue IioA, but even that starts to fail with some of his posts. And, although I myself am arguing against putting much weight on this, he was one of the first to really attack and vote for singer. The worst I can say about nhammen is that his posts have a fair bit of fluff, but it's not nearly enough for me to seriously suspect this slot.

I don't have any serious problems with shotty that aren't explained away by meta. I am curious why you think FC isn't the lynch today though.

Whew, sorry for the WoT there.

[redtail896]

Realized I forgot to add this to my previous post.

VOTE: Far_Cry