Mini 1044: Lie to Me Mafia - Game Over


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Post Post #750 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:20 am

Post by Zorblag »

2/3 of adults think that it's perfectly fine to lie to avoid hurting someone's feelings.


Second VoteCount of Day Four


Antihero (1) - Tasky

Not Voting: Antihero, Nachomamma8, Narsis, Shepard_of_Wolves, ZeroFang

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline for Day Three is 9:00 PM EDT/6:00 PM PDT on Wednesday, November 3rd.


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Post Post #751 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:26 am

Post by Shepherd_of_Wolves »

Well, it was speculation. And, it bothers me that Narsis is so against such speculation against MAFIA. He did not whimper when town PR was speculated about. Such as the lie detection. Sure, he was not posted until page 5. But, he could have pointed that out than.

Look. It makes sense that Mafia would be required to lie specifically about ROLE claims. Especially if he GAVE everyone a SAFE claim as Narsis points out. Here is why. In my PM he goes through a lot of effort to discribe quoting statements that are verifiable by him. AND, if he did not expect a mass ALIGNMENT claim, he would have designed LIES into the game. It is very logical. Maybe, there was a time table for stating lies. Just cause Jimfinn did not get to it. Owe wait, he did. He claimed cop. So, what BS.

Nacho is not confirmed by Espeonage 100%. My lie detections are far superior because they have a FORCED result. Espeonage could have had MOOT results by mafia CHOOSING a no kill. That means, Nacho is not confirmed.

Tasky and ZeroFang are the most likely confirmed players.

@NARSIS: You put me in the unconfirmed area. WHY? Read my evidence post right after my claim and counter it.
@TASKY: One time Night tracker? Interesting.

VOTE: NACHO
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Post Post #752 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:30 am

Post by Shepherd_of_Wolves »

EBWOP:

Owe = Oh,
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Post Post #753 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:30 am

Post by Shepherd_of_Wolves »

Jimfinn claim was actually DOC.
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Post Post #754 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:31 am

Post by Shepherd_of_Wolves »

How else would MAFIA counter lie detection? Do you think they are all vanilla mafia?
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Post Post #755 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:41 am

Post by Tasky »

@SoW:
voting Nacho is not an option here. either you believe Narsis is town and then you follow my breaking strategy (or tell me where it fails) of you believe Narsis is not town and then you vote him.

you town out there, READ MY DAMN BREAKING STRATEGY! comment on it!
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Post Post #756 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 11:43 am

Post by Tasky »

EBWOP: should be "or you believe".
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Post Post #757 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:07 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

Tasky, you're assuming AntiHero to be scum. If he isn't, then case 2 happens:
case 2: Nacho dies and was town, then Zero is scum and there are Narsis and me to lynch him.
So, that means there's 3 alive, with 2 scum. Endgame.
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Post Post #758 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:07 pm

Post by Narsis »

Tasky wrote: wrong:

Nacho, ZeroFang, Narsis, SoW, Tasky left.
assume mafia kills SoW.
case 1: Nacho lives, then he is scum and there are ZeroFang, Narsis and me to lynch him
case 2: Nacho dies and was town, then Zero is scum and there are Narsis and me to lynch him.
case 3: Nacho dies and was scum, we won.

the only possible ways for this breaking strategy to fail are:
1. Sow is scum. Impossible because my role clears him.
2. Narsis is scum.
3. Antihero is town AND Nacho is a perfect lying mafia. this however is almost impossible since ZeroFang would have to be a perfect lying mafia too (since he survived SoW's kill) and I really do not think that that's possible.
there is a 4th possible way for it to fail: Tasky is scum.

also i am Eli Loker, Vanilla Townie.


this actually puts me in a tough position...

if SoW and Tasky are telling the truth, then what Tasky has given as a strategy has to not only work, it would be entirely true.
if SoW is lying and Tasky is telling the truth...then what role does SoW have that Tasky would see him target ZeroFang? additionally, who would the other scum be? probably not ZeroFang and probably not Nacho meaning that Antihero again is the remaining scum.
if SoW is telling the truth and Tasky is lying, then Antihero is still probably scum.
if both are lying, then that's some serious gambit they would be attempting to pull off.

@Tasky: thoughts on no lynching and having SoW target Antihero tonight?
@SoW: what you are forgetting: why would the mafia no kill night 1? there is no reason for them too unless they somehow knew town had a doc. but they couldn't have known that. meaning it is highly likely that they did attempt to nk Nacho.
Record:
Town: 1W/3L

Mafia: 1W/0L

Other: 0W/0L
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Post Post #759 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:28 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

Antihero, do you have anything to say to all of this?
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Post Post #760 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:29 pm

Post by Narsis »

Nachomamma8 wrote:Antihero, do you have anything to say to all of this?
would also be nice to hear Zerofang's thoughts...
Record:
Town: 1W/3L

Mafia: 1W/0L

Other: 0W/0L
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Post Post #761 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 4:54 pm

Post by Antihero »

Ria Torres...tracker.... ? That doesn't fit with the flavor, but I believe it.

Eli Loker doesn't have to be town in this game (just a reminder that flavor meta sucks).

Also, I disagree with everyone else that there's 2 scum left. Since we've already had a survivor and a fairly weak town (according to claims only 3 power roles; SoW's is "macho" and Tasky's is only a 1-shot tracker), I think we're dealing with one scum.

Town: Nacho, SoW, Tasky
Unknown: Antihero, Narsis, Zerofang

I'm putting Nacho in the town category because he was saved Night 1. There's no reason scum would've done a no kill; they didn't konw about Espeonage's role at that point.

Zerofang is still very, very slightly possibly scum since I'm betting the other scum is roleblocker or perfect liar (maybe scum just simply missed sending in a kill night 2; we did go through a change of mods...; this isn't likely though).

I say we lynch one of me or Narsis today and the other tomorrow. I'm betting Narsis is scum (but I'm a bit biased :p).

VOTE: Narsis
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Post Post #762 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 5:38 pm

Post by Narsis »

Antihero wrote:Ria Torres...tracker.... ? That doesn't fit with the flavor, but I believe it.

Eli Loker doesn't have to be town in this game (just a reminder that flavor meta sucks).

Also, I disagree with everyone else that there's 2 scum left. Since we've already had a survivor and a fairly weak town (according to claims only 3 power roles; SoW's is "macho" and Tasky's is only a 1-shot tracker), I think we're dealing with one scum.

Town: Nacho, SoW, Tasky
Unknown: Antihero, Narsis, Zerofang

I'm putting Nacho in the town category because he was saved Night 1. There's no reason scum would've done a no kill; they didn't konw about Espeonage's role at that point.

Zerofang is still very, very slightly possibly scum since I'm betting the other scum is roleblocker or perfect liar (maybe scum just simply missed sending in a kill night 2; we did go through a change of mods...; this isn't likely though).

I say we lynch one of me or Narsis today and the other tomorrow. I'm betting Narsis is scum (but I'm a bit biased :p).

VOTE: Narsis
problem: if one of us is town and is lynched, then town will probably lose the game.
Record:
Town: 1W/3L

Mafia: 1W/0L

Other: 0W/0L
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Post Post #763 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:41 pm

Post by Shepherd_of_Wolves »

This is a hard position. I think we should rely on my results. I think it is our best tool to judge.

That confirms me, Tasky, & Zero.
Nacho is partially confirmed, but I really think I have a valid point on crafting in required lies. This is primarily due to my role PM.
Narsis and Anti are unconfirmed.

If we kill one scum of two deaths, we have 3 town to one scum tomorrow. I say we lynch anti. If he flips town, I kill Narsis. If he flips scum, I kill Nacho. And who ever is living, and does not flip, you all lynch. 2 town 2 scum with no success in killing scum means we loose. That assume 2 scum. If we have only one scum my plan kills all three suspects.

I think we have more reason to kill anti than Narsis. Anti is too confident in his reads. Narsis is tied in flavorwise with Tasky.

However, I am highly convinced of my lie requirement. The bad must have some requirement to lie so as to be discovered.
I cannot imagine why scum would no kill. It could be to the huge lack of play. They may have felt to take out an active player could harm them. To kill an inactive player would not help eliminate real threats. There are several good reasons. And if anti flips scum and we do not win, it would be easy to see that he defended his partner by diverting attention away.

In any case, anti is the best lynch.

unvote. Vote: antihero
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Post Post #764 (ISO) » Thu Oct 28, 2010 6:59 pm

Post by Antihero »

^ *shrug* fine with me

But FTR, I'm not as confident in my reads as my posts might suggest, and that's not a scumtell.
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Post Post #765 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 1:57 am

Post by Tasky »

1. YOU ALL CLAIM
NOW
there is absolutely no reason right now to withhold that information since we do not need any more PR's to win so outing PR's will not harm us. But claims can help us to lynch better
2. SoW: what if Zero is a mafia godfather?
3. everybody please post "I am Ben Reynolds". We need to have a lie at disposal from you all. Maybe we won't use it, but it will not harm and we should force it now when we can still force it, so should SoW think he needs it tonight (or a tomorrow night) he can use it.
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Post Post #766 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 1:57 am

Post by Tasky »

I am Ben Reynolds.
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Post Post #767 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 4:58 am

Post by Shepherd_of_Wolves »

I am Ben Reynolds.
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Post Post #768 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 4:59 am

Post by Shepherd_of_Wolves »

I feel like Zero could be a God Father, but how is it better to trust that suspicion than to trust my result. To me, my results seem the best evidence. Everyone seems scummy to some degree. I do not know a better way to decode it.
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Post Post #769 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 7:43 am

Post by Narsis »

Shepherd_of_Wolves wrote:I feel like Zero could be a God Father, but how is it better to trust that suspicion than to trust my result. To me, my results seem the best evidence. Everyone seems scummy to some degree. I do not know a better way to decode it.
well if we trust your results...

then 2 of me, Nacho, and Anti are probably scum.

i know i am innocent leaving Nacho and Anti.

but i see no reason for scum to have no killed night 1. which means Nacho is confirmed.

which means that one of the people you targetted is some form of perfect lier or you are lying.

the idea that scum need to lie by some deadline is kinda stupid. scum are going to lie in a game eventually. they need to if they plan on winning. so requiring them to do something they are already going to do is just redundant and doesnt make sense.

@Tasky: why Ben Reynolds? how do you know that no one has that as their name?

additionally, how will it help to have SoW kill using that lie? especially if that person is town. because if the person doesnt die then we have a perfect lying godfather of some sort? yet that still would be essentially a 1/4 shot in the dark by SoW at who it is, and if he guesses wrong then town loses the game. also dont forget that if Anti isn't scum for some reason, then we'll probably lose as well.

however, let's say we no lynch. SoW targets either me or Antihero based on our "I'm aligned with the town" posts. if the person dies, then yay we got scum. if the person doesnt die, then he hit town(most likely unless there are two perfect lying scum which would completely defeat the purpose of having the vig in the first place. a vig that can only hit one target is kinda pointless. it's like having 2 godfathers and a cop in a normal game.) then if SoW died, we lynch the other between me and Antihero. if SoW doesnt die, we can repeat the process in some form or another.

i find the no lynch/vig strategy to be a much safer way of doing this then your plan Tasky.
Record:
Town: 1W/3L

Mafia: 1W/0L

Other: 0W/0L
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Post Post #770 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:28 am

Post by Antihero »

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Post Post #771 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:30 am

Post by Antihero »

^That was my lie. I thought it was more entertaining than "I am Ben Reynolds."

Claim: I'm Dave Burns, VT.
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Post Post #772 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:33 am

Post by Antihero »

SoW wrote:However, I am highly convinced of my lie requirement. The bad must have some requirement to lie so as to be discovered.
How would that work? I doubt this.

And it's another thing that supports my 2 member scumteam theory.
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Post Post #773 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 9:42 am

Post by Zorblag »

Mod Note: Prodding ZeroFang.


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Post Post #774 (ISO) » Fri Oct 29, 2010 10:25 am

Post by Nachomamma8 »

I am Detective Molina, VT.

And I don't mind the plan now, since it has a 100% chance of hitting at least one scum.
Vote: Antihero
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