/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[PokerFace]

I think you are vig fate I gave those comments there as if there was someone else as vig that is what they should do. Mith has claimed not vig, spyreX and iam did the same practically and plum already claimed nilla

I am slightly hesitant since i am more sure spyreX scum given earlier thinking going into the day. But i supose you do make a valid point about spyreX and Mith scum being screwed it mith went down today. Either spyreX scum is distancing while mith hopes to get pomplum and Iam on me and then spyreX plans to vote switch and hammer me for the win as they block and kill you at night or mith is scum with someone else. either possibility as mith as scum and more likly roleblocker

I think if Iam and spyreX were scum like i surmised earlier Iam would already have jumped on mith like spyreX did and road with you and pomplum mislynching mith for the win while blocking you and killing you at night. Iam scum wouldn't waste time saying he would consider voting me

[SpyreX]

I'm looking at it from a Iaun and Plum -probably- wouldn''t get into a slapfight and go "ohh snap, why is MITH still around" versus PF being able to throw out on one (Iaun, probably) and hope for a badhammer.

I'm bed now though.

[PokerFace]

After today?

No way.

PF/Iaun/Plum has a better shot than Mith/Iaun/Plum

reading through last few posts clinches it for me. SpyreX just said things that make it looklike he wants me dead before mith. He thinks me dieing today would get mith lynched in endgame now. Him and mith trying to milk me for the mislynch win. this game in the bag

Also this thing you guys call sleep i am off work tomorrow sleep is nothing to me

[Fate]

NO NO SLEEP.

MITH IS STILL AROUND CAUSE THE VIG (ME) NEEDED TO BE SHOT. ???

PLUM AND IAUN BOTH HAVE VOICED PFHATE TODAY, SO MUCH THAT HE WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE LYNCH D'JOUR (SADLY).

AND WHY DO I KEEP GETTING VAGUE TOWN FEELINGS FROM PF'S POSTS?

MITH/IAUN LONGSHOT?

[Fate]

NO NO SLEEP.

MITH IS STILL AROUND CAUSE THE VIG (ME) NEEDED TO BE SHOT. ???

PLUM AND IAUN BOTH HAVE VOICED PFHATE TODAY, SO MUCH THAT HE WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE LYNCH D'JOUR (SADLY).

AND WHY DO I KEEP GETTING VAGUE TOWN FEELINGS FROM PF'S POSTS?

MITH/IAUN LONGSHOT?

[Fate]

FOR NO REASON, AT ALL, WHATSOEVER, WILL POKERFACE BE PUT AT L-1 WHILE SPYREX'S VOTE IS STILL ON MITH. IS THIS CLEAR LADIES?

My head's all fucked up. Iamscum is becoming more possible but it would require super solid play by that slot. Mith/Iaun stonewalling until they get their PF lynch makes perfect sense.

PokerFace your posts GIVE ME SUCH A GODDAMN HEADACHE.

Poker:

Mith/Iaun scum. Tell me waht you think NOW.

[PokerFace]

That would be because i am town and would def not nom you for anything should we loose cause i got mislynched via spyreX and mith manipulation of you and others

MITH IS STILL AROUND CAUSE THE VIG (ME) NEEDED TO BE SHOT. ???

um you asking a question of me here? I don't quite comprehend

I am and mith not seem like scum together and iam's unvote of no lynch would make no sence if they together. that post make much better sence as iam thinking like me that mith was vig orginally and so he asked mith firmly. Mith paniced after that and went after me. Iam scum would have tried to do something else there is he were with mith. I think he would be trying to get me dead with some actuall effort and case on me being scum as apposed to saying he is leaning my way. Scum iam would be trying to convince people some townie is scum as apposed to just saying direction he leans

[PokerFace]

scum aim would want to convince others vote me so he can win as apposed to saying what and where he would be voting

this is now why i more firmly think spyreX and mith as spyreX and mith are actually saying bad things or trying to make convincing cases while both plum and iam are thinking and looking through things. You are also trying to make a case yes but i already explained why i don't think you scum

[PokerFace]

FOR NO REASON, AT ALL, WHATSOEVER, WILL POKERFACE BE PUT AT L-1 WHILE SPYREX'S VOTE IS STILL ON MITH. IS THIS CLEAR LADIES?

My head's all fucked up. Iamscum is becoming more possible but it would require super solid play by that slot. Mith/Iaun stonewalling until they get their PF lynch makes perfect sense.

PokerFace your posts GIVE ME SUCH A GODDAMN HEADACHE.

Poker:

Mith/Iaun scum. Tell me waht you think NOW.

My posts give you a headache? now you know how i felt getting owned by you and your hidden guns and capslocking in OGOM. when chrono died i knew i was fucked and i have you to thank for that. ha ha.

at any rate you got any other questions for me. i can't sleep and don't have to since i don't have work tomorrow so i might as well do something constructive and talk to you here

[Fate]

Iam IS trying to get people to vote you, he stated in his most recent post, after my whole WALL OF TEXT detailing mithscum "I need to finish ISOs, but I want Pokerface dead" He just lost all his townpoints with that one post.

You are very easy to get a lynch on PokerFace. As it is Plum thinks it is you/SpyreX, and her vote+Mith/SpyreX's would mean gg.

SpyreX has promised me he wouldn't vote you today and he better not just be holding on until a "haha jk QHammer time."

Frrom my POV I have a solid town read on SpyreX, combined with a newly forming town read on you, which means Mith/Iam.

This team makes sense given their play today with neither of them having ANY INTEREST whatsoever getting the other lynched.

Its the only combo that makes sense unless SpyreX is just voting mith knowing mith won't be lynched and is holding out for a HEROPokerlynch.

So what am I missing?

Why can't Iaun's post in reference to mith be one of "Well mith would never vote a vig as a Vanilla Townie, so mith must be vig" as I way to reinforce a mith fakeclaim route? Or even just to distance from mith by setting up being able to call mithscum? (mith voted and he WASNT the real vig? Mith is scum, PF dies first, etc.)

[PokerFace]

what iam said was:

I still need to iso SpyreX and mith, but I'm pretty sure I want to lynch PokerFace today.

Not

I still need to iso SpyreX and mith, but I'm pretty sure I want to lynch PokerFace today.

Here is why... BIG Giant Case...

I think if he were scum with mith he'd be giving a big case in an attempt to convince 2 townies and get the win at night. Or at least something to suggest who others should vote other than saying what he's voting. Before this he asked questions of mith considering his vote and what looked like mith was trying to counter you. Iamun also defended himself from you earlier. I don't think iamun actually gave a case on me today. If I missed it point it out to me. I think it is spyreX and he had hoped i would get votes from plum and iam on me by now.

[PokerFace]

Why can't Iaun's post in reference to mith be one of "Well mith would never vote a vig as a Vanilla Townie, so mith must be vig" as I way to reinforce a mith fakeclaim route? Or even just to distance from mith by setting up being able to call mithscum? (mith voted and he WASNT the real vig? Mith is scum, PF dies first, etc.)

Iam asked questions of mith. when you reinforce a scum buddies claim you give comments on why you think they are vig or why you think someone else isn't. Scum priority is kill power roles. Before he even asked the questions of mith he voted no lynch and thought he would get the 2 of you to shoot each other at night while he forgot about the roleblocker. Scum iamun wouldn't forget about the roleblocker unless RB was out of shots and i doubt they are and alot of people doubt that. Scum iamun has no benefit from no lynch. Also the no lynch reaction to 2 vigs countering is the exact same reaction i had as town in this game:
http://67.222.17.61/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6579
specifically
http://67.222.17.61/forum/viewtopic.php?p=920224#920224
Iamun reaction makes perfect sence because i have seen town do it before. Korlash claimed vig and xtoxm countered so me and rikumaru voted no lynch to watch them shoot each other at night

[mith]

Plum:

I doubt there's a thread where I specifically talk about the strength of the Vig relative to the other power roles in this game (becausee I don't think I've talked about any of them much), and I'm not sure if there's a thread where I talk about the power of the Vig directly. I know it's implicit in some of my postings, though - for example, there was a thread discussing whether a Vig should shoot night 0 or not (probably started by Pie?) in which I discuss why Vig kills are good for the town (extra town "lynches", basically; Vig kills lower the number of Mafia kills, and generally take out top suspects - even when they hit town, they are removing lynchbait and making it easier to find the scums).

I think the only setups I have done numbers for are Vanilla-type and some small ones with a Cop, until CTD's comment tickled my curiosity. EVs are difficult to do with power roles, and it happens that 2 Vigs/2 Trackers massclaim is relatively easy compared to the other possibilities. Even so, the EV jump from 4:16 Vanilla (17%) to 4 Named Townies (i.e. massclaim and then the power roles get shot without taking any action - 19%) to 2 Vigs/2 Trackers massclaim (33%) demonstrates the strength of the Vigs (primarily - the Trackers play a small role in that bump), even outed.

Massclaim isn't a good strategy for most other setups we might have here (aside from the broken ones - 2 Weak Doctors or 2 Hiders) - the only one I could see being better than 33% is 2 Vigs/1 Weak Doctor/?, where the Weak Doctor gets an extra Vig kill or two by protecting the Vigs. So I couldn't draw much from that even if the other setups were doable (the Jailkeeper setups in particular would be very difficult to treat analytically). That said, it's obvious to me that any setup without the Vigs is worse for the town:

The Vig can potentially kill scum, and can eliminate top suspects. The Tracker has a very low chance of catching scum (and may out other power roles, as seen here). The Jailkeeper has a small chance of preventing scumkills, and may catch scum (same rate as Tracker) but usually WIFOM applies to whether it was a protection or a block. The Hider can confirm a townie or two, but is an extra town death waiting to happen. The Weak Doctor is similar, and can keep other outed power roles alive, but needs them outed to do so; and, like the the Hider, is an extra town death waiting to happen. And neither of the latter two can be absolutely certain of their confirmations if there is a blocker (Mafia or Jailkeeper).

For clarification on the VV slip:

Day 3, I saw the slip, but at this point it wasn't clear whether we had one Vig or two, so I waited for more information. (To think I caught something like that as scum is to give me too much credit. If I had known Herodotus was the scumkill by virtue of being part of the scumteam, I don't think VV's comment about Herodotus being killed would have even registered as something odd.)

Day 4, we only had one kill. At this point, to my townie eyes, it looks like we only have one Vig. If that is the case, Elmo shot Herodotus, which means the VV thing couldn't have been a scumslip - the slip argument is based on VV thinking scum shot Herodotus because they actually did shoot Herodotus, which could only be the case if there are two Vigs (and either VV knew they shot Herodotus because he's scum, or VV knew they shot Herodotus because he's the Vig). This seems to be where Fate is confused - I didn't come out with the slip day 4 because it didn't make any sense as a slip day 4, when I was assuming one Vig (and in fact then felt like a towntell, because if the scum killed Elmo, scumVV probably wouldn't assume otherwise in his posting).

Day 5, it was clear we had two Vigs, and I went with it after ruling out VV-Vig.

Re: No kill; again, I doubt I have made any explicit arguments on this, but have discussed setup balance in terms of number of Mafia kills vs. number of Town kills (lynches and Vigs). Not killing as scum usually just extends the game for the town - there's a reason 2:10 Vanilla is difficult for the town, while 4:8 Nightless is considered a viable setup. I can't think of many non-endgame situations where I would no-kill as Mafia.

Re: PR direction, I certainly wasn't assuming there were two Vigs. Herodotus brought that up. I didn't think scum would give us

one

Vig, much less two, so it didn't occur to me as something worth discussing, but after Herodotus mentioned the possibility I realized that there were two Vig cases where the second Vig shouldn't shoot Elmo (namely, if the second Vig shot Amished) - and since my initial plan wasn't clear on that (and I could definitely see a Vig not thinking it through and realizing Elmo couldn't be scum in that case).

Note that if I were scum and we shot tajo, I couldn't know whether the Vig shot Amished or tajo or no one - both kills would be accounted for - and I would be better off as scum just ignoring Herodotus' comment and hoping that if the Vig shot Amished they wouldn't think it through and would kill Elmo anyway. (I can't imagine that I would have argued in favor of shooting tajo

or

Amished, but that's way too deep into WIFOM land.)

Re: Thinking my lynch would be fine. - Obviously stupid on my part, but stupid regardless of alignment; to believe I posted that as scum, you have to either believe that I decided it would be in the scumteam's best interest for me to die

and then changed direction again nine minutes later

, or that I was trying some bizarre "fake a brainfart" gambit (why?). I don't know how my brain ended up with "oh, we'll get three shots no matter what" out of that (stress, probably), but I made that post because I was momentarily convinced that we, the town, were going to win no matter what (I absolutely would not make that post as scum thinking I would lose no matter what - I've turned around too many lost causes for me to give up in a bleak situation).

---

On to PokerFace's post...

When I started writing the post in which I voted for Fate, the bottom line was going to be "Fate could be scum, but if so then the real Vig will shoot him tonight" - i.e., the argument I made for Elmo. Then I saw what appeared to be a damning slip, and was convinced that Fate was lying scum; at that level of certainty, correct play appeared to be "get Fate lynched and keep the Vig hidden so we have two shots at Fate's buddy". (Of course, if I had known the Roleblocker couldn't kill and block at the same time, I would have realized that neither play was correct - if Fate was lying, the real Vig should have countered and by lynching Fate we ensure the Vig can't be both killed and blocked, whether Fate is the blocker or not.)

If I thought I could pull off a fake Vig counterclaim, why would I then back off of it based on iamausername's post?? It seems that iamausername would have believed a counter coming from me.

---

2117 from Fate is on the right track. And "I, (and maybe you), ALONE ARE THE ONES THAT BELIEVE IN MITHSCUM." - then why is PokerFace voting for me? (Hint: Because if I am lynched, he and SpyreX win the game.)

"So what am I missing?" - PokerFace/SpyreX, apparently. Your town read on SpyreX is dead wrong.

"Why can't Iaun's post in reference to mith be one of "Well mith would never vote a vig as a Vanilla Townie, so mith must be vig" as I way to reinforce a mith fakeclaim route?" - This would be especially bizarre on my part; I set up a fakeclaim, my buddy comes out to reinforce it, and then I immediately change directions? Why on earth would anyone do that? Your scummith theories are getting more and more farfetched.

PokerFace's

[mith]

Bleh, misclick.

PokerFace's hope here is to push a mislynch on me for the win. He is apparently more sure SpyreX is scum, but put me at L-1? (And even as he says he is more sure of SpyreX, he soft-defends his scumbuddy.)

How did you get this so badly wrong, Fate?

[mith]

Actually, some of my setups do indicate how I feel about the strength of the Vig relative to other power roles.

/in-Vitational Game 4 - possible roles included a 1-shot Vig, 2-shot Jailkeeper, 2-success Tracker, and Restless Hider. The Vig is the most limited, because it is the most powerful as a full power role.

8 Player Setup - similar; One-shot Vig, Full Tracker, Full Jailkeeper.

Flayming Man Game 5 - 12 Players, 3 Mafia, town power roles are Vig and Roleblocker. (Roleblocker was helpful in this game, but there's no way this is a balanced setup with Weak Doctor/Hider/Jailkeeper/Tracker in place of the Vig.)

And here's the Pie thread.

[Patrick]

Votecount

mith (3) -- Fate, SpyreX, PokerFace
PokerFace (1) -- mith

Not voting: Plumegranate, iamausername
6 alive, 4 to lynch.

[Fate]

Pokerface is hoping to push a mislynch through on you by putting you at L-1?

You realize he has just ruled Iam/Plum, SpyreX/Iam, SpyreX/Plum as impossible scumteams, and considerably narrowed his options.

[Fate]

Day 3, I saw the slip, but at this point it wasn't clear whether we had one Vig or two, so I waited for more information. (To think I caught something like that as scum is to give me too much credit. If I had known Herodotus was the scumkill by virtue of being part of the scumteam, I don't think VV's comment about Herodotus being killed would have even registered as something odd.)

"Oh *blush blush* I'm not that much of mastermind."

YOU SAID IT YOURSELF "zomg mithscum still alive?" CAUGHT YOUR EYE, THEN YOU READ THE REST OF POST, THEN YOU WENT "???HMMM ONLY ME(SCUM)+VIG SHOULD KNOW THE HEROD KILL WAS SCUM. DING DING DING VIG FOUND??!?"

And when he WASNT the vig found,

"DING DING DING, SCUM KNOWLEDGE?"

You're right, the mith/Iaun theory is pretty far-fetched. SO WHO IZ YOU SCUM WITH MITH?

HINT: IT DOESNT MATTER. 3 PEOPLE, 3 SHOTS, TOWN WIN.

[Fate]

"Your town read on SpyreX is dead wrong." Oh ok thanks.

"How'd you get this so badly wrong?" SHOW ME. DONT APPEAL TO ME. KTHX

DieMithscumDie.


Plum let's discuss something and then hammer this chump.

[SpyreX]

reading through last few posts clinches it for me. SpyreX just said things that make it looklike he wants me dead before mith. He thinks me dieing today would get mith lynched in endgame now. Him and mith trying to milk me for the mislynch win. this game in the bag

Also this thing you guys call sleep i am off work tomorrow sleep is nothing to me

What?

No, how does that work with my vote on mith good lord man. I'm saying, as part of the hail mary, YOU have a better chance at endgame than mith does. Not that it changes anything.

AND WHY DO I KEEP GETTING VAGUE TOWN FEELINGS FROM PF'S POSTS?

MITH/IAUN LONGSHOT?

I'm not sure where you're getting that from yo.

If anything this vote looks like a gamble most high, BUT:

You realize he has just ruled Iam/Plum, SpyreX/Iam, SpyreX/Plum as impossible scumteams, and considerably narrowed his options.

You're right about this I don't understand.

SpyreX has promised me he wouldn't vote you today and he better not just be holding on until a "haha jk QHammer time."

I DID?

Well, sure I wont move it to stop shenanigans BUT the only reference I made was absolute sarcasm to mith's "Ohhh hoo hoo SpyreX is only saying he'd vote PF" by saying yea, yea I would.

[Fate]

I knew it was just sarcasm that was just TEST #73 to see if you'd "roll with my misread" or correct me. PLUS I SAID THAT NOT PF WUT?

IM JUST TRYING TO HAVE PLUM SEE WHAT I SEE.

SPYREX WHY WOULD YOU DAYTALK WITH POKERFACE AND TELL HIM TO JOIN YOU ON A MISLYNCH WAGON?

But something irks me

[Fate]

You realize he has just ruled Iam/Plum, SpyreX/Iam, SpyreX/Plum as impossible scumteams, and considerably narrowed his options.

You're right about this I don't understand.

2MINS ON THE CLOCK ELABORATE. GO.

[Fate]

THE CLOCK IS TICKING.

YOUR SLIP IS FALLING FASTER AND FASTER DEM FLOORS ARE SLIPPERY

[SpyreX]

GOD I HATE QUOTES

PF has lost his marbles and it sure wasn't this insane all game.

The deal is, PF/Mith now confuses me because what's the goal? Have this one dissipate into a... ME lynch? Otherwise it makes no sense.

2MINS ON THE CLOCK ELABORATE. GO.

By going mith and SpyreX over and over and throwing his vote down with me in a bus that doesn't make sense going after ANY of those is a failure.

BUT, it does make sense in trying to get you to shoot me.

So, I dont understand closing his options AND voting.

[SpyreX]

GET BACK HERE AND HELP ME FIGURE THIS OUT