Mini 1072 - Battle of Alcatraz

[CooLDoG]

The Exe wagon is a very bad lynch, RC's case is bull. The others don't even have a case. WHAT THE HELL GUYS. I would never vote on such a horrid wagon, you can call me his scum buddy but I have a very bad feeling about the wagon.

@RC, I didn't post yesterday because I had a bad cold, does that make me scummy too? Also day 1 reads are sketchy at best so asking for a scum list isn't the most productive thing in the world. Second question why did you not post your top 3?

@all, I hereby worn you guys that if exe is lynched and he is town I will not be on that wagon…

@TBM, I prefer a Kat lynch, a MCG lynch is passible…

[Hinduragi]

Oh, I've got a case.

because it is only just for the other party to have a chance at a responce before I move my vote...

What does him having a chance to respond do? If you're going to move your vote to kat, why didn't you do it then?

scumhunting is pro-town, and when he flips town you guys had better kiss my butt.

.

@all, I hereby worn you guys that if exe is lynched and he is town I will not be on that wagon…

HOW ARE YOU SO SURE? Oh right, you know who is town and who is scum.

What's your case on kat? Why do you think he was lying about misreading Exe's post?

I'm down for Cooldog, then McGriddle. I want to hear more from Budja.

[ReaperCharlie]

Hinduragi. Why are you ignoring Exe too?

F&ck.

[SpyreX]

Can I hammer yet? IS IT TIME?

[Copper]

Apologies for Copper's general lack of impact. Due to a variety of circumstances, Copper was reduced to a single head for most of the game day. This is not a crippling problem, because all of our heads are perfectly competent. However, I (and I make no excuses, I am the primarily negligent head) was not even reading the game. As such, the posting head was hesitant to give a top three in thread.

We're all full strength now, and we've found quite a few powerful tells that seem to have been missed in the thread. Some of these points will be relatively old, but they need to be brought to light.

Our posistion is that

Exe and budja are scumbuddies.

The first problem we had with Budja is this vote. It's an odd switch from a random vote to nopoint. His next vote makes it even odder.

Exe's 78 was the first one that put the idea of Budja and Exe being scumbuddies strongly in our minds. Exe FoS's Budja and loudly suspects him, but keeps his vote. Not scummy on it's own - but it led us to a prediction. I was reading the thread for the first time, and I said, "I bet next time he switches his vote, it's not to Budja. It seems like a case of vote: townie, FoS: scumbuddy."

Exe 94 was pretty much exactly what we expected to see. In 78, nopoints actions were scummy enough that Exe said, basicially, "I'd love to vote for Budja, but I think nopoint is more scummy." But now, suddenly, he's playing hunt the lurker, going after the easy vote. No mention of Budja in sight.

Posts 78 and 94 are about half a page and four hours apart from each other. How legitimate do you think 78's suspicion of Budja really was?

In post 109 we see him once again curiously neglecting Budja when mentioning his "scumhunting."

Budja's 132 looks awfully like he's trying to deflate a wagon on his scumbuddy without actually refuting it in thread.

The

initial

case of Exe was good and he did

begin to flail

(as Muffin pointed out well) but all

Kat's yelling

has done is distract.

Ah yes, the

initial

case was all well and good, but Kat's yelling is distracting. As though because Kat was distracting, this wagon is no longer worth considering. If I believe X is scum for reason Y, and someone brings up an irrelevant point Z, that doesn't make Y any less potent. And yet, Budja is trying to sell us the idea that the Exe wagon STARTED well, but has stagnated and is old. He's sitting on the Exe wagon, but this post is clearly from the perspective of someone who wants to get off it.

The apex of the absurdity comes from Exe's 223. Budja, who has so completely fallen off the face of the earth, is suddenly re-mentioned by Exe. Why? Because he wants Budja to state a "case" on him - last. It's fairly obvious what this is. Exe has finally committed to being lynched, and he's making sure his scumbuddies get proper bus credit. Budja's vote, after all, was simply "unvote, vote: exe". He even takes pains to mention the order he wants cases in. I've literally never seen that before, and the painfully obvious explanation is that he wants Budja to have two more cases on him to reference as he writes his own bus-case.

Also, if I were to chose the order that people voting me were to justify their votes, I'd pick the early wagon voter with no explanation first. If you ISO Budja, he has never explained why he's voting Exe. I applaud Exe for trying to help his scumbuddy, but his heavy-handed way of going about it has damned his scumbuddy even more.

Assuming we are dealing with a three person scumteam, the most common for this size of game: who's the third scumbuddy? Obviously, if we're wrong about one of Exe or Budja, it's back to the drawing board. If we're correct, though, we have a couple more tells to throw in to the fire. List's like this written by scum tend to have two townies and one scum one them.. Exe's "ordered cases" post could easily have one or both of his scumbuddies in it. If I had to pick the last member of the scumteam, I'd put my money on either Mcgriddle or Muffin. Cooldog doesn't strike me as the type to pull a 255 on a scumbuddy. This is all speculation better suited for day three, of course.

Becaue of Spyrex's claimed hammerlust, we'll refrain from voting for the moment so the town can comment on this analysis.

[ReaperCharlie]

*wants to make love to post #229*

*desires knowledge of Coppers true identity*

*drools just a little bit*

*wipes it up*

[Exe]

*wants to make love to post #229*

*desires knowledge of Coppers true identity*

*drools just a little bit*

*wipes it up*

Posts like these are especially hilarious after I flip town. I love when people are particularly praising of completely wrong analyses.
At this point, yall might as well get on with lynching me. Most people aren't actually posting at this point (or posting content) and so I might as well be lynched, as there is enough support to finish me off. Then yall can get to stringing up the obviously scummy sheep on this wagon.

[Copper]

Earlier today you were full of righteous indignation. If I was wrong, it would only strengthen your resolve to catch the scum presumably infesting your wagon. But instead, me calling your actions with Budja obviously scummy has made you apathetic. I wouldn't expect to see apathy if you had a town flip to throw back in my face. I'd expect the same righteous fury of earlier today.

You wanted to hear Budja's reason for voting you, and I have revealed this to be a feeble attempt to enable a bus, and now you don't want it posted. You want us to lynch the scummy sheep on your wagon, but how are we to know which ones to lynch without them posting their reasons for voting? As a townie, you'd want those reasons more than ever. As scum, you want to quickly end the day before you get your buddies into even more trouble.

Self-vote and end this farce, or continue stammering out information on your scumbuddies. I don't particularly care which.

[Fate]

POST.

[CooLDoG]

@Hi, because I have read the game and exe doesn't show any sign of scummyness, case on cat is that his vote was backed up by very poor reasons, and he hasn't posted any content at all. Using your same logic TBM should also be lynched because he also is strongly against the Exe Lynch. I just warning you guys that there are several more scummy people.

[Exe]

Earlier today you were full of righteous indignation. If I was wrong, it would only strengthen your resolve to catch the scum presumably infesting your wagon. But instead, me calling your actions with Budja obviously scummy has made you apathetic. I wouldn't expect to see apathy if you had a town flip to throw back in my face. I'd expect the same righteous fury of earlier today.

You wanted to hear Budja's reason for voting you, and I have revealed this to be a feeble attempt to enable a bus, and now you don't want it posted. You want us to lynch the scummy sheep on your wagon, but how are we to know which ones to lynch without them posting their reasons for voting? As a townie, you'd want those reasons more than ever. As scum, you want to quickly end the day before you get your buddies into even more trouble.

Self-vote and end this farce, or continue stammering out information on your scumbuddies. I don't particularly care which.

Why don't I care? Because there's two days left and the scum are just going to lurk their way to a mislynch. How can I possibly stop that, this close to deadline?

I have strengthened my resolve to catch the scum on my wagon. My resolve is in fact so strong that I am prepared to die so that you all can catch scum D2.
I am not an idiot, I understand the value of a vanilla death. The likelihood of a counter wagon at this point is unbelievably slim, and the scummy people will be scummy once I flip town.

I would just like to point out that this should be pretty clear to an experienced player. RC's case on my wasn't made up, but it was weak as hell and he should be aware of that. The fact that the wagon built up this quickly with ONLY RC really making a case should scream scum-support.

[ReaperCharlie]

@ Exe: If you actually DO flip town, which I highly doubt, who do you think is the most likely to be scum on your wagon?

---

@ Copper: I find it highly odd that you just told Exe to "self vote and end it all" but still haven't voted for him. Everything just TOTALLY flipped around from last night when I wanted to make love to your post... NOW it sounds to me like you're throwing down an uber-bus on Exe, but still hoping to get a no-lynch if possible if nobody else will vote him.

You and SpyreX have both mentioned that you're willing to vote/hammer him, but then you tell him to vote for himself?

Self voting/hammering is probably the WORST thing you can possibly do (besides no-lynching on Day 1), so why would you even THINK about telling him to do that, if he had even the SLIGHTEST chance of being town?

If that doesn't make sense to anyone else (and yes, things I say routinely DON'T make sense because I type them differently than I think them), let me break it down.

1. If he's town and you're town, you have NO reason to tell him to self vote. If he does, it's anti-town, plain and simple, on both of your parts.
2. If he's scum and you're town, you have NO reason to tell him to self vote. It wastes discussion time. This evens out as deadline approaches.
3. If he's town and you're scum, you have EVERY reason to tell him to self vote. It'll makes him look bad and anti-town even after he flips town.
4. If he's scum and you're scum, you have EVERY reason to tell him to self vote. It wastes town's discussion time.

HoS: Copper

(if deadline wasn't so soon, this would be a vote).

[Copper]

I understand that self-voting is usually a terrible deal, but you have to understand the rules change when there's a sure wagon. Luckily, you posted after Exe's 235, so I am free to explain the whole process because it has served it's purpose.

Firstly, this accusation:

still hoping to get a no-lynch if possible if nobody else will vote him.

is simply silly. Exe is being lynched today, without question. I would mark myself as fairly obvious scum if I didn't vote Exe before deadline, and he'd get lynched with or without me.

Now, in regards to your breaking it down:

1. If he's town and you're town, you have NO reason to tell him to self vote. If he does, it's anti-town, plain and simple, on both of your parts.
2. If he's scum and you're town, you have NO reason to tell him to self vote. It wastes discussion time. This evens out as deadline approaches.
3. If he's town and you're scum, you have EVERY reason to tell him to self vote. It'll makes him look bad and anti-town even after he flips town.
4. If he's scum and you're scum, you have EVERY reason to tell him to self vote. It wastes town's discussion time.

Your 1 and 3 are pointless. No non-VI townie is going to self-vote themselves because the person accusing them told them to. Indeed, the ultimatum "self-vote or keep stammering about your scumbuddies" was done partly to give him a last shot to contribute if he was a townie. My 232 made it abundantly clear that if he was a townie, it'd be great for him to actually get the cases he asked for. Of course, waffling back and forth would make him and Budja/Muffin/McGriddle look scummy, but

that wouldn't matter.

Exe is getting lynched today, and if he a townflip waiting for us, he'd go for what looks scummy but helps town after his flip confirms him.

You may notice he still doesn't want those cases.

So, that being settled, we were looking for more information on whether or not Budja really is his scumbuddy. That's why we phrased it like so:

Self-vote and end this farce, or continue stammering out information on your scumbuddies.

Leaving Exe two options:

Self-vote

: As you said, this would "waste discussion time." But it would also make discussion time unnecessary. If Exe self-votes, he's claiming scum. More importantly, I would consider this claiming scum with Budja. For him to not want to "stammer about his scumbuddies", he'd have to be pretty rattled that he already gave up a whole lot on his scumbuddies. The only reason we didn't vote in 229 is because we were seeking more information on the Budja and Exe connection. A self-vote would give us all the information we needed; more "discussion time" would be pointless.

Keep stammering about his scumbuddies:

Because he didn't self-vote, we're getting more reactions from Exe. If he was scum but not with Budja, I'd expect him to say "okay guys, post those cases after all." If he was scum with Budja, and didn't take the self-hammer, then probably the best thing for him to do is to remain completely silent. He did neither, but instead pleaded that we hunt the scummy people on his wagon while being absurdly careful not to name any names. This is more information that will be very useful tomorrow, and we wouldn't have gotten it without turning up the pressure.

Exe:

who are the scummy people on your wagon?

[ReaperCharlie]

Ok, I will concede the point that those are pretty much his only two options at this juncture.

But that doesn't change the fact that it's still ridiculously scummy for you to ask him to self-vote.

[CooLDoG]

Exe is a bad lynch, but I want to know who he thinks is scum on his wagon. And also Exe, if you are a vengful townie who would you kill?

[Copper]

Ok, I will concede the point that those are pretty much his only two options at this juncture.

But that doesn't change the fact that it's still ridiculously scummy for you to ask him to self-vote.

We would have gained more information than we lost if he had self-voted.

I can't exactly fault you for your suspicion, though. Nine times out of ten, a deep distrust of those doing, requesting, or even mentioning self-votes is appropriate. But missing a day of discussion with a sure wagon over our heads means far, far less than missing, say, a week of discussion with the days lynch still a mystery, especially when a self-vote tells us so much about the game-state.

[Fate]

BUDJA'S GETTING REPLACED. PLEASE HOLD.

IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE AUROUSVOX.

I WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO A DEADLINE EXTENSION, IF YOU ALL BEG ENOUGH. IT WILL BE NO MORE THAN 5 DAYS AND NO LESS THAT 2

[SpyreX]

I'm down with whatever.

[nopointinactingup]

At this point I'm waiting for Exe to reply. I do think Copper's self vote insistence was more an act of showing their resolve.
@Cooldog: You are persistently saying Exe's wagon is bad, but you aren't lobbying for any another wagon. This is definitely scum motivated behavior to earn town cred from a mislynch.

[CooLDoG]

no, I'm lobbing for a kat wagon, he jast hasn't responded at all, have you ever tryed talking to a brick wall before?

[Muffin]

Well I've re-read everyone in ISO and my vote is pretty comfortable on Exe right now, though I have others I'm keeping an eye on.

Not reading the thread carefully

He also seems to be wavering on who to vote for.

LOL nice calling OMGUS. That's terrible scumhunting. Omgus is a crap tell.

Way to use the slight confusion in game mechanics to hide your lack of desire to commit to scumhunting.

Scum are still scum. As far as we know, a lynch is still a lynch. Stop creating excuses and hunt for scum.

Scum AREN'T still scum because if their nightkills don't die, there doesn't have to be any rhyme or reason to their choice of targets, esp. since the players targeted cannot discuss their freed/unfreed status. Stop trying to obfuscate the issue.

hiding behind meta wifom

More AtE than I can count.

[Fate]

BUDJA'S GETTING REPLACED. PLEASE HOLD.

IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE AUROUSVOX.

I WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO A DEADLINE EXTENSION, IF YOU ALL BEG ENOUGH. IT WILL BE NO MORE THAN 5 DAYS AND NO LESS THAT 2

AurousVox is busy and can't replace. Deadline will be extended depending on when a replacement is found.

[Copper]

At this point, I'm only waiting on Exe's answers to 236, 237, and 239 (all essentially the same question) before voting. (Unless, of course, he lets out yet another scum slip worth pursuing.) Once someone is a sure lynch, the reactions of everyone besides the lynchee tend not to really matter. As such, even with an extended deadline, I don't think that dragging out the day any longer would be beneficial to the town. The night will give Budja's replacement a chance to read in peace, and the rest of us can take a break without having to check in the thread to say we're "down with whatever." That being said, if someone else has a reason they want to continue the day, I'll gladly hear it.

[Katsuki]

no, I'm lobbing for a kat wagon, he jast hasn't responded at all, have you ever tryed talking to a brick wall before?

Lobbying? You've had no case, and pretty much all you've done is scream for a katsuki lynch while calling exe wagon bad, while providing no content whatsoever.

Make some more noise hmm?

Apologies for lack of content, have not had much time for MS as of late. Will try and make time for a re-read tonight.

[Fate]

"Hey guys I'm not feeling so well, I'm going to try to go to the ward."-Budja
"Pussy. Afraid to play a game that involves shanking and bullets?"-SpyreX
*Budja runs away*
"Yo, I'm feelin' much better now. So what's goin down?"-Nikanor
"Who are you?"-muffin
"...Budja..."-Nikanor
"But he literally just-"-muffin
"You can call me Nikanor for short though."-Nikanor
"???? WHATYOUTALKINBOUT?"-ReaperCharlie
"Awww yeah baby."-Nikanor

Nikanor replaces Budja as of this post! Welcome to prison Nikanor!