Mini 1064 - Charlie's Town (Game Over!)

[Shotty to the Body]

Meh let's do this. Going to have to stick with my gut at this point. Spyre's all or nothing attitude towards this isn't helpful in the least, he quick hammered, and his massive tunneling certainly isn't pro-town.

vote Spyre

@Reck: You said earlier you thought you knew Richard's buddy back on D1, who were you thinking of then? Why did you not mention Jmurph at all?

[Charlie]

Vote count 8

SpyreX (2) - FakeGod, Shotty to the Body
Shotty to the Body (2) - SpyreX, jmurph3
Casus Belli (1) - Cogito Ergo Sum
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) - Casus Belli
FakeGod (1) - Reckamonic

Not voting: Nachomamma8, Substrike22, masfloohinev
With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

[SpyreX]

Meh let's do this. Going to have to stick with my gut at this point. Spyre's all or nothing attitude towards this isn't helpful in the least, he quick hammered, and his massive tunneling certainly isn't pro-town.

vote Spyre

@Reck: You said earlier you thought you knew Richard's buddy back on D1, who were you thinking of then? Why did you not mention Jmurph at all?

Following a theme.

Five points to the winner!

[masfloohinev]

Vote: FakeGod

I think the scumteam is him, SpyreX, and jmurph. I'll give reasons later.

[Casus Belli]

You totally are downplaying things. Don't pretend your suspicion was run-of-the-mill.

What are you talking about here? Show us how we are down playing this.

I know what Chainsaw defense is, but my understanding was that the purpose of it was to indirectly defend your partner (in the wiki article Tar says it's only valid if the chainsaw defendee has flipped scum). I'm not sure how I would benefit from chainsaw defending Richard.

Looks like you are befitting quite well right now. It has enabled you to place a weak vote on us in an attempt to pass it off as legitimate suspicion. The fact is you didn't and still haven't said why the case on Richard was bad. You explanation around why our post was different from Recks is weak and we don't fully understand how you could possibly hold the belief they are different seriously.

As for Spy's hammer, I go back and forth. Mainly it's an argument full of WIFOM in my head - scum wouldn't be that stupid; but he would know that we would think that, so he's safe to do it; but scum really wouldn't be that stupid, etc. Circular argument, getting me nowhere.

This is called a null tell. Why dance around it?

[masfloohinev]

Below are my thoughts on most of the players in the game. I'm having a bit of trouble getting good reads on most of the players in the game, but here are my reads:

FakeGod:

After reading FakeGod in isolation, I highly suspect him. He jumped from suspecting Richard a little bit to thinking Richard is scum. What's stranger is that Richard didn't even post inbetween these two stances. So, I have no idea what could have changed his mind. His reason for the vote was that there was a counter bandwagon, but nobody voted Shotty inbetween those two stances so that couldn't have been the reason for him changing his mind.

My second reason for suspecting him is his reason for suspecting Richard. He thinks Richard is scum simply because of something other players did. I would like for him to post some examples of games where he saw a counterbandwagon rise against a scum.

My third reason for suspecting FakeGod is that he seems to care about his survival a bit too much. Two examples of this:

A.) Today he subtly pushes the suggestion of lynching somebody that wasn't on Richard's bandwagon by saying that there is a 1/3 chance of hitting scum as opposed to 2/7. This seems to be self serving, because

he

was on the Richard lynch bandwagon.

B.) He doesn't vote for SpyreX until after SpyreX says that he's creeping him out. It could be a coincidence but I think that seems interesting.


Fourthly, I think FakeGod may have made a scumslip at the beginning of today. At the beginning of today, he says this:

Should we lynch inside the wagon or the outside?

If we assume 2 scum on cop wagon and 1 scum outside, that gives us about 2/7 nailing scum inside the wagon, and 1/3 nailing scum outside the wagon.

The problem with this is that he says there is a 2/7 chance of lynching scum if they go for somebody on the bandwagon. However, from his PoV it should be a 2/6 chance if he is town. Could be an indicator that he is scum.

Lastly, FakeGod has brought hardly any points up against players and has given us hardly any reads to work with. He's been useless.

Overall, I strongly feel that FakeGod is scum.

My Read:

Mafia

SpyreX:

SpyreX spent all of day 1 tunnelling on Shotty to the Body and practically ignored everybody else. I find it hard to believe that a townie wouldn't have anything to say about any of the other players.

Secondly, the hammer. His motivations for hammering Richard make absolutely no sense:

1.) I wanted to see what Nacho would do given he was on.
2.) I wanted to see what Richard would do with the threat of a power hammer.
3.) I figured what the hell if it goes through - it'd say something INTERESTING if he was actually scum and, hopefully even if not, do something.

These reasons for hammering Richard don't make any sense at all. 1 and 2 are things that occurred before you actually hammered Richard. Once Richard and nachomamma reacted to the threat you had accomplished those goals. So, why did you still need to hammer? 3 is a terrible reason. Is adding spice to the game more important than having role claims and a day longer than 6 pages? No, it isn't.

Overall, I don't understand SpyreX's vote at all.

My Read:

Mafia

Nachomamma8:

I think he's town. The only problem I have with him is his assistance with hammering Richard. He hasn't done anything EXTREMELY pro-town, but aside from the L-1 Richard vote, he hasn't done anything scummy imo.

My Read:

Neutral/Town

Shotty to the Body:

I thought he was town earlier, but he's began active lurking recently and flying under the radar a bit more. Thinking about this, I've realized this isn't always a scumtell and it might just be his meta. After thinking it through, I am having a lot of difficulty deciding if he is town or scum. If I had to guess, I would say he was town simply because there are three players I suspect more than him (FakeGod, SpyreX, and jmurph). However, he is a close fourth guess.

My Read:

Neutral

Cogito Ergo Sum:

Another player that I think is town. I completely understand the reasons for his vote for Casus Belli despite not currently agreeing with the conclusion. I also get the impression that he doesn't care what people think about him. My only problem with him is that he seems to be tunneling a bit, but I am pretty confident that he is town.

My Read:

Town

Substrike22:

I can't get a read on him.

My Read:

Neutral

Reckamonic:

I think he's town. I haven't agreed with all of his points and they haven't actually posted much despite having two heads, but they do take strong stances which I like.

My Read:

Town

Casus Belli:

At the end of day 1, I suspected Casus Belli a lot, however after further consideration these past few days, I've been beginning to think otherwise. My reasons for suspecting Casus Belli are due to their attacks of me, RichardGHP, and CES, plus their posting style which seems strange to me. The attacks for me and RichardGHP I don't like because the reasoning seemed weak imo plus they felt opportunistic. The attack for CES looked bad for many reasons. Casus Belli didn't give the reasons for the original suspicion until after CES voted them. It looks OMGUSy. Let's take a look at the reasons for the suspicion...

1. He switched his vote to me when it looked like the Shotty bandwagon had the most momentum and the RichardGHP bandwagon appeared like mostly RVS bandwagoning.
2. He supposedly chainsaw defended RichardGHP.

I don't even understand what the first point means and the second point is inaccurate (you can't chainsaw defense isn't a scumtell if it is on a townie). I would like you to explain this attack. The posting style seemed strange to me because it consisted of many questions but not a lot of thoughts. However, looking at xvart in other games, it seems like this is just his normal playstyle as town.

Overall, I'm beginning to think they're town. OMGUS and bad attacks are not necessarily scumtells, and after reading them in iso I get the impression that they actually believe in their attacks.

My Read:

Town

jmurph3:

I'm thinking she's scum. Originally, I wasn't all convinced by q21's point against her, but after taking a closer look at her defense, I wish I had given her more attention. She originally said that she suspects me more because I got more agitated when my arguments were supposedly shut down which she said looked like cornered scum. However, later she keeps her vote on Shotty instead for something else. When questioned, I think jmurph realized she was caught in a contradiction, because she retracts her earlier point against me and now says:

So instead, I left my vote where it is because I think it's much more interesting to note the connection between you and Shotty, and something that I would prefer to explore more before I move my vote elsewhere, especially since

my read on mas is a gut-read, and I don't typically hold much with my gut.

The bolded part shows that jmurph has apparently forgotten the point she had against me. Before she had said she had a point against me that wasn't gut, but now she's saying she suspected me more than Shotty simply because of a gut feeling. Also, she says she doesn't hold much with her gut. If that's the case, why did she give me an FoS?

Later at the beginning of day 2 jmurph says this:

At this point, I'd most be willing to go with the people on the wagon, since I have a better read on those. Of those, I'd be most willing to vote Spyrex. For, you know, the giggles. Off the wagon, the most likely scum to me is Mas, for a variety of not good play D1.

Which contradicts her suspicion of me that was solely due to her gutfeeling which she also says she doesn't hold much with.

Lastly, her voteswitch from SpyreX to Shotty due to a reread. I thought it through, and even if she did reread the thread and change her mind, it was still a big jump to go from SpyreX to SpyreX's main suspect.

My Read:

Neutral/Scum

---

Summary:

Scum

FakeGod
SpyreX
jmurph
Shotty
Substrike
Nachomamma
Casus Belli
Reckamonic
Cogito Ergo Sum

Town

[Nachomamma8]

Why, guess what...I reread the thread and decided that I still didn't like the way Shotty was/is playing. So really nice job taking what I said completely out of context.

What points did you read specifically? Just the point by SpyreX?

However, I do think that all credit for the hammer can't be given solely to Spy, and I think that not enough people have focused on Nachomamma, a fact that, ironically enough, he's pointed out himself.

What, do you expect someone else to do this for you?

[Nachomamma8]

Shotty, you have a problem with calling SpyreX scum. Are you trying to distance yourself from a SpyreX town flip? If not, why would you say things like...

Spyre's all or nothing attitude towards this isn't helpful in the least, he quick hammered, and his massive tunneling certainly isn't pro-town.

If we go inside the wagon I'd vote for Spyre, constant tunneling, quick-hammer, he isn't an asset even if he is town.

Spyre is at least partially genuine because I've seen him failtunnel before

I've read through your posts several times and I STILL haven't found you calling him scum. Why not?

Vote: Shotty

[SpyreX]

Because he's scum and tryin REAL hard not to OMGUS

[FakeGod]

Because he's scum and tryin REAL hard not to OMGUS

I thought he already voted you back?

[masfloohinev]

So, do you guys want to respond to the points against you? I didn't make that post for it to be ignored.

[Substrike22]

First off, Substrike, get off your high horse because that breadcrumb was not obvious at all, so stop. We've finally agreed with Cogito Ergo Sum on one thing: FakeGod's 166 is really badposting. Also, his insistence in post 180 that we should lynch from the Richard wagon is very bad. It's not like the people on the wagon knew that they were lynching a cop, and the scum could've VERY easily stayed off the wagon and let town lynch town.

Speaking of town on town, Cogito & Casus are both town, so we should just move on past that argument. masfloohinev's 195 is terribad: "Oh hey I suspect the person who hammered and I'm also going back on a town read so I don't back myself into a corner here". Furthermore, his questioning on CES, FakeGod, nachomamma, and Substrike in 196 feels incredibly fluffy, and not in a good way. We don't believe that he actually thinks SpyreX is scum, nor do we think he actually suspects Shotty right now.

ALSO SPYREX, WE HAVE FULL HYDRA CLEARANCE TO INITIATE ALL CAPS LAWK ALLIANCE ACTIVITIES. LET'S RUN THIS BITCH WHOOOOOOOOOOO

Oh haha FakeGod's vote on SpyreX is cute.

The scumteam consists of: masfloohinev, FakeGod, and someone else. Still trying to figure out who that other person is. Could be any of Substrike, Nachomamma8, and Shotty, but they're hardly posting enough for us to get good reads.

Vote: FakeGod

THANKIES~!

Yeah first of all, there was no "high horse", I spent the next half page of the forum calling myself an idiot for the mistaken reasoning there. Please read that too before you start going after me. Thanks.

FakeGod is my most comfortably scum right now:

What was useless about FakeGod's post 93?

All it was was a post giving his opinions regarding mafia theory. No reads or questions or anything helpful in it. Convince me otherwise.

Let's see..... we have a RVS wagon, then another wagon quickly popped up soon afterwards.

I expressed that I'm thinking Richard is more likely to be mafia than Shotty since there's a chance that town caught a mafia in the first wagon, and his mafia buddies are attempting a rescue via presenting another wagon.

The speed of the wagon, as you may have noticed, was pretty fast, and this is actually pretty important. This is important because: town usually have few people who tends to vote "faster" (trigger-happy?), and emergence of a new wagon usually means that "faster" people will abandon the original wagon for the new one. This is not what happened. The original wagon on Richard was stable despite the growing counter-wagon on Shotty. This implies that something else (for example, mafia might be fueling the second wagon) is at work here.

Or, that a majority of the mafia was on the first wagon and relying on a second counter-wagon before they RVS L-1'd or Lynched the cop... The reasoning of your post with the whole "trigger happy" part runs counter to your conclusion. If "trigger happy" town were on the first wagon, they'd jump to the second with your line of reasoning. Instead they stayed on the first wagon, with some people on the 2nd wagon sneaking onto the first one at the end. I think 1 scum was in the initial group, and I think that was you, based on the argument you tried to make.

Also, reading back on day one, flipping FakeGod will help give us reads on other people. A lot of people started talking about potential busing of FakeGod and such.

so Richard didn't claim when he was about to die?

*shrug*

I guess he wanted to be lynched.

I also see this is as a not so subtle attempt to score town points by commenting on the recent lynch of a town power role in a town-manner. It's scummy.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What are you talking about here? Show us how we are down playing this.

-->"Townies get it wrong all the time, that's nothing new."<--

Looks like you are befitting quite well right now. It has enabled you to place a weak vote on us in an attempt to pass it off as legitimate suspicion.

So I benefitted from attacking you in a chainsaw defense in that it enabled me to attack you? This strikes me a lot of hullabaloo about nothing.

The fact is you didn't and still haven't said why the case on Richard was bad.

That's because I don't particularly think it's bad; I find it unconvincing and I think it's stretching a bit.

You explanation around why our post was different from Recks is weak and we don't fully understand how you could possibly hold the belief they are different seriously.

What part do you disagree with? The meaning I ascribe to your post or to his?

P.S. FakeGod is looking good as a #2 suspect.

[Nachomamma8]

Mas, what do you think of Substrike's willingness to switch his vote from you to Richard, since you were both scum together anyways?

What do you think of post #167?

[Shotty to the Body]

Because he's scum and tryin REAL hard not to OMGUS

Lol pretty sure you voted me today after I said I suspected you earlier. Just sayin'.

[SpyreX]

Lol pretty sure you voted me today after I said I suspected you earlier. Just sayin'.

And yesterday never existed.

And its readily apparent I've never, ever, ever suspected you.

Not once.

Good lord.

[Shotty to the Body]

Shotty, you have a problem with calling SpyreX scum. Are you trying to distance yourself from a SpyreX town flip? If not, why would you say things like...

Spyre's all or nothing attitude towards this isn't helpful in the least, he quick hammered, and his massive tunneling certainly isn't pro-town.

If we go inside the wagon I'd vote for Spyre, constant tunneling, quick-hammer, he isn't an asset even if he is town.

Spyre is at least partially genuine because I've seen him failtunnel before

I've read through your posts several times and I STILL haven't found you calling him scum. Why not?

Vote: Shotty

Why does it matter? I have a vote on him, I've been actively mentioning his scummy/anti-town-ness since at least the beginning of the day. Actions speak louder than words. I don't think I've seen you call me scum, what's up bro?

[Shotty to the Body]

And yesterday never existed.

And its readily apparent I've never, ever, ever suspected you.

Not once.

Good lord.

Yes, because your so-called suspicion was amazingly focused on me while you were hammering the cop with little to no reason.

[SpyreX]

Why does it matter? I have a vote on him, I've been actively mentioning his

scummy

/anti-town-ness since at least the beginning of the day. Actions speak louder than words. I don't think I've seen you call me scum, what's up bro?

One time.

I want to see the word scummy.

I want to see you, somewhere, anywhere, saying I'm actually scum.

----

These reasons for hammering Richard don't make any sense at all. 1 and 2 are things that occurred before you actually hammered Richard. Once Richard and nachomamma reacted to the threat you had accomplished those goals. So, why did you still need to hammer? 3 is a terrible reason. Is adding spice to the game more important than having role claims and a day longer than 6 pages? No, it isn't.

Yea, sometimes it is:

Post #3 » Sun Oct 03, 2010 1:42 am
Post #149 » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:16 pm

This. Is. Bad.

Like I said I don't feel bad in the slightest about throwing a hammer. I'm not stoked at seeing it coming and tsk,tsking instead of claiming but so it goes.

[Nachomamma8]

Why does it matter? I have a vote on him, I've been actively mentioning his scummy/anti-town-ness since at least the beginning of the day. Actions speak louder than words. I don't think I've seen you call me scum, what's up bro?

His reaction to SpyreX is also scummy in its own right

That's what's up bro.

[FakeGod]

@mas: 1) You say I went from "suspecting him a bit" to "Richard is scum." In the first post you linked, I made my vote on Richard official, if you didn't realize. I already believed he was scum from the first post you linked, and I didn't change my mind suddenly, contrary to what you're saying.
2) As I stated before, my vote on Richard was based on mafia theory. If you don't agree with my theory, then there's nothing I can do about it.
3) A) You're just overthinking it. It was more of a disguised "who do you think is scum?" question. (based on which side of wagon people pursue, this should give hints to subtle relationships between scum) I did a similar thing in Newbie 985 around post #485 when I listed possible outcomes and asked people which one is most likely. Sure, 2/7 < 1/3, but difference in probabilities are small enough, and watching for relationship between 2 people on wagon instead of one inside one outside is bit more easier.
B) I don't understand. How is this related to my survival?
4) I post probabilities from "audience"'s point of view, unless I specifically point out a point-of-view from one player.
5) Seeing that I voted and defended my vote on Richard which eventually resulted in his lynch, I'd say I'm playing Mafia.
And if I didn't give you any reads, how did you come up with all these points above?

Contradiction.

[Nachomamma8]

FakeGod, that's all you'd like to contibute?

[FakeGod]

I think I responded rather nicely.

[Reckamonic]

@mashfl;lkj;ievn: Regarding your 224. Suspecting SpyreX for hammering isn't scummy in and of itself - it's just opportunistic. And reads can change, yes, but your read changed for almost no reason whatsoever. It was just "Uh, yeah, I suspect him, I'll explain later".

Shotty's 225 is just bad. OMGUS much? Not to mention, Shotty is acting like the way SpyreX is playing is somehow vastly different from his town meta. Spoiler alert: it isn't. To answer your question: we thought mash;lkj;lkncv;ljk was his buddy.

Oh, and mask;jk;in's vote on FakeGod is eerily similar to his suspicions on SpyreX and Shotty in 195. He pops up, cast suspicion, then just goes "Hey I'll explain later".

And now, for Reckamonic's problems with mar;lkja's giant post of fail!

He wants FakeGod to show games where he saw a counterbandwagon rise against scum. Is this a serious request? Because this is a pretty fucking common thing, and we don't think we need to see any at-length examples for most of us here to agree that this happens often. Oh, and his 'scumslip' that he found on FakeGod is weak - people include themselves in the numbers all the time. Had he said 2/6 instead of 2/7, you'd be saying he's scum for exactly the opposite reason.

We're not voting for SpyreX today.

Also, Nacho, do something.

[SpyreX]

Also, Nacho, do something.

He's not doin much, but he's done one awesome thing.

---

FAKEGOD while we wait for Shotty to come back and make up some moonbeams about how he's said I'm actually scummy before this can move ahead to ropin time I want more words on offense from you than defense (which I think that one post is by far the most words you've used).