Mini 1064 - Charlie's Town (Game Over!)

[Substrike22]

And by in day 2 I mean I thought the night scene occurred when we already had one night for him to investigate. God I'm making myself into the VI right now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Your newbie game is in the same state as this game (Day 2 without a Night 0). Elaborate or die.

P.S. FakeGod's #166 is :badposting:

[Substrike22]

And by in day 2 I mean I thought the night scene occurred when we already had one night for him to investigate. God I'm making myself into the VI right now.

I've got too many god damn games, I'm trying to replace out of the one I just got put into cause I didn't /out of the newbie que. I thought that we had already been through one night, because that one has been in day 2 for a while. As I said, I said something absolutely retarded, hence the 2nd post about turning myself into the VI.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Stranger mistakes have been made.

[Charlie]

A reminder: Please do not reference ongoing games.

Vote count 6

Casus Belli (1) - Cogito Ergo Sum

Not voting: FakeGod, SpyreX, Nachomamma8, Shotty to the Body, Substrike22, Reckamonic, masfloohinev, Casus Belli, jmurph3
With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

[FakeGod]

Should we lynch inside the wagon or the outside?

If we assume 2 scum on cop wagon and 1 scum outside, that gives us about 2/7 nailing scum inside the wagon, and 1/3 nailing scum outside the wagon.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

We could do that or we could just try to lynch whoever we think is most likely to be scum (i.e. Casus Belli).

[SpyreX]

Its still Shotty, yo.

[Shotty to the Body]

El oh el, broken record, bro.

If we lynch outside the wagon I would go with jmpurph, very lurky D1 and self-contradictory in her only real post. If we go inside the wagon I'd vote for Spyre, constant tunneling, quick-hammer, he isn't an asset even if he is town.

@Spyre: If it's been me the whole time why did you vote for Richard? 'For the giggles' doesn't excuse it either.

[jmurph3]

Sorry I'm late, didn't see that the day had started!

At this point, I'd most be willing to go with the people on the wagon, since I have a better read on those. Of those, I'd be most willing to vote Spyrex. For, you know, the giggles. Off the wagon, the most likely scum to me is Mas, for a variety of not good play D1.

In the meantime, however, i need to reread the thread and work out some reads on those that I have sort of null-tells on at the moment.

[masfloohinev]

Oh my gosh... I've got WAY TOO MANY scumreads right now. (There's really only one or two players that I don't suspect excluding myself). I need to reread, look at the bandwagon, and do some isos.

Too make matters worse,

Mod:

I'm going to have limited access the following four days. I'll be on vacation, but should still have time for some posting. I'll try to post something before I leave.

[SpyreX]

It was absolutely for the giggles. Of course, even giggling has deeper meanings:

This game is suffering from the most severe case of apathy I've seen in a while. Throwing down a powerhammer led to a couple things:
1.) I wanted to see what Nacho would do given he was on.
2.) I wanted to see what Richard would do with the threat of a power hammer.
3.) I figured what the hell if it goes through - it'd say something INTERESTING if he was actually scum and, hopefully even if not, do something.

I sure didn't expect a cop to just hold it and teehee all the way home. I was, in fact, outgiggled.

[SpyreX]

Ohhh AND BTW if you chuckleheads (and you will) end up running me up and I flip town I swear to god almighty as my dying wish that Shotty takes rope.

Its that simple.

If you need the classic "case that only will work after my flip" just remember him already pushing away from it via: "he isn't an asset even if he is town."

On the other side Fake is absolutely starting to creep me out.

Unvote, Vote: Shotty

[Reckamonic]

We're still V/LA, but we just had to pop in to note that Richard is retarded for not claiming cop.
What the hell, man?

[Nachomamma8]

Hey guys, I helped hammer Richard tooo...

{Shotty
jmurph
FakeGod}

[Casus Belli
SpyreX
mas]

[SpyreX]

Shhhh Nacho.

I'm the big bad wolf don't drag yourself into this, yet.

Needless to say, today is going to be man up day and you (meaning everyone) better decide right here and now if I'm scum. Because this sure isn't gonna be something I'm gonna let teehee along IF I dont get lynched today.

[Substrike22]

Should we lynch inside the wagon or the outside?

If we assume 2 scum on cop wagon and 1 scum outside, that gives us about 2/7 nailing scum inside the wagon, and 1/3 nailing scum outside the wagon.

I don't follow this argument. Why would we assume two on the wagon and one off, unless you've got information we don't? This math is wayyyyy too subjective.

Also, does no one else find Mas scummy? q21 made good points on him in his posts 6, 7, and 8 (read in Iso). I also found him scummy day 1, for reasons I've already detailed. Even though Richard flipped cop it doesn't make Mas any less suspicious to me on a reread. I still find his FoS on Richard suspicious and oddly timed, and posts 52 and 53 still come off as scummy to me.

[Charlie]

Casus Belli has been prodded.

[Casus Belli]

Sorry for the late post, the hydra heads missed each other over the weekend. So consider us to be

V/LA over the weekends.

As far as we're concerned, Spy's hammer for giggles or whatever is a null tell. It isn't anything out of character for Spy. We are not particularly pleased at post 190 we agree that this one instance should be settled now and not brought up later as a scum tactic to undermine Spy; but this isn't the definitive moment that determines Spy to be scum or not for the rest of the game. Right now we aren't finding Spyrex scummy.

Substrike's cop error looks like an honest mistake to start with, however posts 175 and 177 look a little like back tracking to make himself look better. Overall opinion is that scum would have to be crazy to pull a fast one like that in an attempt to get Spy lynched, so it was likely a mistake, therefore null. He needs to pick it up with some scum hunting though.

With Richard's flip we have to reevaluate some of our suspicions. Mas was our number two suspect yesterday, but a lot of what we found scummy was linked in with how he reacted to Richard. With Richard flipping town we need to look else where.

His role PM is in the lynch scene, substrike, so we know Richard didn't have an investigation on SpyreX. That breadcrumb comment is very confusing - I certainly don't see any.

FoS: Nachomamma and SpyreX

Vote: Casus Belli

who just looks worse now that Richard has flipped town.

How exactly do we look worse now Richard has flipped? Townies get it wrong all the time, that's nothing new. And do you think we were the mastermind behind his lynch wagon, and if so, can you provide examples of why we are the scum on his wagon compared to the others? You seemed intent on focusing in on us yesterday for our push on Richard and looking back now it looks like you knew he was going to flip town. You hop right back on us today, holding us to a perfection standard when yesterday you never bothered to say why the case on Richard was bad in the first place.

We noted your chainsaw like defense yesterday, combine that with the weak FOS's for the hammer gang you are looking very much like self righteous scum.

Vote: CES

We could also swing for a shotty wagon as he seems to be strategically lurking, commenting on very little almost waiting to see if the attention on him will blow over.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Needless to say, today is going to be man up day and you (meaning everyone) better decide right here and now if I'm scum. Because this sure isn't gonna be something I'm gonna let teehee along IF I dont get lynched today.

I don't care - I think it's a scum tell (albeit a weak one) and I don't plan on ignoring in the future if you don't get lynched today. I don't see how the town would benefit from having a statute of limitations on certain actions.

How exactly do we look worse now Richard has flipped?

I thought the certainty you expressed in "We are feeling that Richard is very likely scum." was unreasonably high given the circumstances. The 2 most plausible explanations are "you're scum and making it up" and "you happen to really have such a strong suspicion" (I asked the question to eliminate "her words don't accurately reflect her thoughts"). In the latter case, considering you're both experienced quality players (a judgment based admittedly on but a few observations in the case of xvart) which should include being able to accurately assess your own suspicions, I would expect RichardGHP to be scum with a high likelihood (and that isn't true in the "you're scum"-scenario.) The claim now follows from a simple application of Bayes' Theorem (it should also be intuitively obvious.)

Townies get it wrong all the time, that's nothing new.

Well, you obviously thought more highly of your suspicion. Don't downplay it now.

And do you think we were the mastermind behind his lynch wagon, and if so, can you provide examples of why we are the scum on his wagon compared to the others?

No, I do not.

You seemed intent on focusing in on us yesterday for our push on Richard and looking back now it looks like you knew he was going to flip town.

It was more of a case of me not posting that much but spotting one thing I found significant.

We noted your chainsaw like defense yesterday,

Isn't the idea of a chainsaw defense to defend your partner while keeping your distance?

combine that with the weak FOS's for the hammer gang you are looking very much like self righteous scum.

Sorry I don't have three votes; will work harder in the future to obtain more votes.

P.S. Is "Casus Belli" singular or plural?

[masfloohinev]

I'm still working on an analysis of the game, but ftr, I currently suspect SpyreX and I'm actually beginning to suspect Shotty again too despite my earlier town read on him. I'll give reasons later.

[masfloohinev]

EBWOP: I've got a few questions...

CES, why do you suspect Casus Belli and not Reckamonic? Reckamonic seemed to show an even stronger belief that RichardGHP, don't you think?
FakeGod and nachomamma, who do you suspect?
Substrike, am I your top suspect?

[jmurph3]

Not sure what to make of CES vs. Casus Belli. I too don't understand how Casus Belli looks worse now that Richard flipped cop. Casus Belli came off to me as neutral on D1. Certainly not the scummiest person on the Richard wagon, and I think CES's jumping on him for so little (both during D1 and today) is suspicious.

FoS: CES

Also, I agree strongly with what SpyreX has to say about Shotty. If there's anyone who looks worse after the Richard flip (other than SpyreX), it's Shotty. VOTE: Shotty

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Reckamonic seemed to show an even stronger belief that RichardGHP, don't you think?

No, I don't. Furthermore, I see them as more likely to make the type of mistake that would see this type of behaviour coming from a townie.

I too don't understand how Casus Belli looks worse now that Richard flipped cop.

Well, I've posted an explanation. So you're going to have to go into more detail than that if you want to go this route.

[masfloohinev]

One more question...
Nachomamma, did you actually think SpyreX would hammer RichardGHP if you put him at L-1?