Newbie 1012 - Game over

[Excedrin]

Vote Count

Shadow Dancer (1): DavidParker
Enigma (2): silverbullet999, schrauben8542
silverbullet999 (1): Enigma

not voting: Shadow Dancer, Baby Spice, HopOnMyJoystick
alive: 7 majority: 4
D2 Deadline: AD 2010-10-28 09:51:05.686 PM (Thu) Pacific Daylight Time
2 weeks, 1 days, 11 hours, 38 minutes, 42 seconds

[PogoStick]

I agree that SD's lurking is bad, especially when previous day he didn't

I think the fight is probably scum v town but could be town v town

[schrauben8542]

SD still has some explaining to do don't get me wrong. His next post will weigh heavily on my next vote.

@DP: How do you know that the mafia has an RB? There is only one scenario that works with the mafia having an RB and Town having a cop. So while it is possible, it's only a 25% chance. Again this will hinge on what SD has to say.

@HOMJ: Your picking up what I'm putting down, about the SB/Enigma situation. Just seems fishy to me.

[DavidParker]

This guy really makes no sense....

Nor do you think things through.

SUre that setup is only 1 of the 4 setups, but you are missing the point - HE HAS CLAIMED COP.

So, there is only 2 setups with a cop, 1 of which has a roleblocker. Anyways, point is, if scum don't have a roleblocker, optimal scum play is to kill the cop because no one will protect him. If there is a roleblocker, scum just roleblock the cop and kill someone else. The fact he is still alive means that is the situation IF he is a cop.

He is either a cop or scum as it stands in my eyes. Once certain things have happened probability changes.


Here is your (FAIL) logic:
There is a 25% chance we have a roleblocker so it's unlikely SD was roleblocked... (However, you are missing the fact there was a cop claim and the cop then survived the night)

Given that he is a cop or scum... using your logic:
There is a 2/9 chance (22.2%) he is scum.

Where did the other 52.8% go??? I really don't know what to make of this logic you are putting forth.

[silverbullet999]

Reason why an Enigma Lynch is better than an SD lynch

(Not that I have forgotten about SD at all)

I'm nearly 100% certain that Enigma is scum. Key word is nearly
If Enigma is lynched and flips scum, it's nearly very safe to say that SD is scum.

Why?
Enigma points out a scum slip and says that through this slip, I have revealed that SD is a cop.
This in my eyes is a poor attempt to keep his buddy alive.
If Enigma flips scum then I see his actions as one of two things. A. a very clever ploy to have us kill off SD the next day, basically setting him up perfectly (I frankly don't think he is smart enough for that). or B. an attempt to delay his partner's death.
If Enigma flips town... my mind blows up and am unsure of anything. It basically creates a situation where maybe Town Enigma is right about SD and his arrogance led him to his downfall? I'd expect plenty of heat on me too of course but this possibility is low in my mind.

If we lynch SD
There's a chance that he might possibly (though doubtfully) be cop. Thus we kill a cop.
if SD Is cop, leaving him alive one more day may give him a chance to get results (assuming Enigma is roleblocker) or at worse make him the night kill.
if SD is scum, leaving him alive is basically harmless and he's just scum that's practically outed.

[schrauben8542]

@ DP: You are not understanding me, just because you may not agree, doesn't make me fail, mean that I don't think things through or anything else that your throwing out there. All I said is that there was a 25% chance that the F11 scenario that we are playing includes the roles that your stating we have. This is based on facts.

Now I definitely agree that the percentages change as facts are known and right now he has "Claimed" Cop, that coupled with the fact that he wasn't killed last night, to me says that he is mafia or was RB'd. I think we are in agreement even through my "fail" logic.

The main reason I asked how you knew there was a mafia RB is that I had to read through 32 pages of info last night try to digest everything coupled with 16 different players for 9 roles, I wanted to make sure I didn't miss something that inferred that they may have been a RB during the previous night. Which I didn't recall or pick up on when I was reading through.

[PogoStick]

I was reading back, I really don't like baby spice 's posts this day phase

his #5 - his "theory" seems wifom
#6 - attempted defending of DP
#7 - post link to reason he thinks bhat us scummy but doesn't point out specifically what about it makes it scummy
#8 - bunch of words with no real content
#9 - Deflecting attention on some irellevant vote hoping which isn't a scum tell so doesn't need to be questioned

And lastly goes quiet when SB and enigma start fighting

fos my day one fos, baby spicy

[Shadow Dancer]

First of:

Learn what fucking V/LA means! Being V/LA is not lurking, calling people on V/LA out for lurking is very anti-town at best. I think me being for mere four days of V/LA at the very start of a day is definitely acceptable for you guys. I disgust the attempts, mostly of DP, to present my V/LA as a scumtell - it is nothing even remotely close to it.

Since I had not much time to reread so far and likely won't have until weekend and there is so much really strange behaviour going on in this game, I'll go for a

vote DP

for now...

The fact that enigma is still alive makes me think he might be scum...

However, to end all the debate and allow this game to progress:
I correct my claim to VT.
That means I am not a real cop!
So my setup analysis:
If it was GGC, I'd be dead by now.
If it was GGD, there would have been no night kill because scum would have tried to kill me, not aware there's in fact a doc (it is more than unlikely scum would dare leave a cop alive without an RB).
This leaves us with GRDC or GR0, most likely GR0, which means we should really pull ourself together and get some good analysis to find scum.

[Shadow Dancer]

EBWODP: First of:

Learn what fucking V/LA means! Being V/LA is not lurking, calling people on V/LA out for lurking is very anti-town at best. I think me being on V/LA for mere four days at the very start of a day is definitely acceptable for you guys. I disgust the attempts, mostly of DP, to present my V/LA as a scumtell - it is nothing even remotely close to it.

Since I had not much time to reread so far and likely won't have until weekend and there is so much really strange behaviour going on in this game, I'll go for a

vote DP

for now...

The fact that enigma is still alive makes me think he might be scum...

However, to end all the debate and allow this game to progress:
I correct my claim to VT.
That means I am not a real cop!
So my setup analysis:
If it was GGC, I'd be dead by now.
If it was GGD, there would have been no night kill because scum would have tried to kill me, not aware there's in fact a doc (it is more than unlikely scum would dare leave a cop alive without an RB).
This leaves us with GRDC or GR0, most likely GR0, which means we should really pull ourself together and get some good analysis to find scum.

[PogoStick]

So you fake claim cop, making us potentially lynching the doctor who fake claimed and now you want us to just assume you are town?

As an IC you have set a bad example for the newbs like myself

vote Shadow

[Shadow Dancer]

Either you are a newb - then you could not tell the difference between a bad or a good example of play.

Or you actually have some experience which you can base your judgement on - then you aren't newb.

Anyway, you just brought up the stereotypical dogamatic response I had expected of you.

My play was definitely unusual by site standards, but thus it had the potential to be very effective.
If it was inapropriate IC play - I leavee that to your judgement - it is definitely part of my play style.

[schrauben8542]

So your saying you FC'd Cop to help the town determine what the set up was?

You also vote DP then can't believe Enigma is still alive because he "might" be scum. I think the good analysis has just been made for me for I thought you were either Cop or Mafia. Your not the cop so that narrows it down for me.

Unvote, Vote Shadow

[Shadow Dancer]

Ah, so you speculated that "A" or "B" and once it turns out "C" you understand "not A" and deduce "B"... Pretty cool.

[Excedrin]

Vote Count

Shadow Dancer (3): DavidParker, HopOnMyJoystick, schrauben8542
DavidParker (1): Shadow Dancer
Enigma (1): silverbullet999
silverbullet999 (1): Enigma

not voting: Baby Spice
alive: 7 majority: 4
D2 Deadline: AD 2010-10-28 09:51:05.686 PM (Thu) Pacific Daylight Time
2 weeks, 1 days, 8 hours, 4 minutes, 22 seconds

[schrauben8542]

Especially, when C doesn't make sense. Did you really think that if you FC cop and then correct that to a VT the next day after avoiding a lynch everyone would be cool with that? ... Pretty Scummy

[silverbullet999]

SD is at L-1

I still think Enigma would be the better and more informative lynch though.

[PogoStick]

Either you are a newb - then you could not tell the difference between a bad or a good example of play.

Or you actually have some experience which you can base your judgement on - then you aren't newb.

Anyway, you just brought up the stereotypical dogamatic response I had expected of you.

My play was definitely unusual by site standards, but thus it had the potential to be very effective.
If it was inapropriate IC play - I leavee that to your judgement - it is definitely part of my play style.

I replaced into a game on this site during night 1, game moved fast with scum win. This game must have been a first time mod cause another mod was posting tips and scolded Andrew for being town and fake claiming

[schrauben8542]

SD is at L-1

I still think Enigma would be the better and more informative lynch though.

I don't disagree Silver, but I can't get beyond the fact that SD FC'd a cop and then "corrects" it to be a VT the following day. He has yet to explain this or even give a hint at what he was trying to accomplish. I think we can all agree that this is scummy behavior, even SD can't deny that. For SD to say that HOMJ gave him the dogamatic behavior "he expected" which is BS and tell me I'm "pretty cool" for not seeing his "3rd Option" as if it was f'ing obvious, is a joke. He avoided the lynch with the fake claim yesterday, I can't wait to see what lie he has in store for us today to avoid it.

[Baby Spice]

I think fake claiming cop like that is a scum play, designed to drag out any real cop there might be, or to force the hand of any doc that might be in the game thus giving the scum a free hand in who they target.

I cannot see any town reason for it at this stage.

Vote SD

I am tempted to tell him to claim, to see if he tries for Doc this time.

I'll spell out the Bhavit thing tommorow when I have more time.

[Excedrin]

Final Day 2 Vote Count

Shadow Dancer (4): DavidParker, HopOnMyJoystick, schrauben8542, Baby Spice
DavidParker (1): Shadow Dancer
Enigma (1): silverbullet999
silverbullet999 (1): Enigma

not voting:
alive: 7 majority: 4

Shadow Dancer, Townie was lynched.

It's night 2, submit actions. N2 deadline AD 2010-10-16 05:38:52.570 PM (Sat) Pacific Daylight Time

[Excedrin]

It's Day 3.

silverbullet999, Townie, was killed.

Vote Count

not voting: Baby Spice, schrauben8542, DavidParker, HopOnMyJoystick, Enigma
alive: 5 majority: 3
D2 Deadline: AD 2010-11-05 02:07:50.995 PM (Fri) Pacific Daylight Time
2 weeks, 6 days, 23 hours, 59 minutes, 19 seconds

[PogoStick]

ok so please god let there be a cop, we need info ASAP.

[silverbullet999]

Didn't see that one coming [\sarcasm]

[DavidParker]

ok so please god let there be a cop, we need info ASAP.

Are you serious? Have you read through this game at all?

2 Things -

1) We are 99% likely to be in the mountainous setup (7 VT's)
Why? Because SD wasn't killed night 1. He claimed cop (and wasn't scum) so scum assumed he was cop. They didn't kill him so that means scum have a roleblocker (or are really retarded)... That means we have 2 pr's or 0 pr's. With a (fake) doctor and (fake) cop claim going un counter claimed and with 5 people left (2 of whom are scum), the chances of having 2 pr's still is really non-existent.

2) Enigma is still scum. The entire Enigma vs Silverbullet fight to me had huge scum vs town vibes about it.

[Baby Spice]

I'll spell out the Bhavit thing tommorow when I have more time.

Bear with me as this might get convoluted.

Way back in #56 we have:

Have you realised that your this move could have made someone lynched.

That would have actually required someone willing to hammer him. Lynching is a team effort. Everyone contributes to it, not just one person.
Do you think someone would be willing to hammer already?

No, I meant a mafia may have done it and then made an excuse. And L-1 is always a bad position anyways.

tHEN #57

I ask you, would I really be that stupid to do that?

Followed by #58

One never knows in mafia.

#60:

Have you realised that your this move could have made someone lynched.

That would have actually required someone willing to hammer him. Lynching is a team effort. Everyone contributes to it, not just one person.
Do you think someone would be willing to hammer already?

No,

I meant a mafia may have done it

and then made an excuse. And L-1 is always a bad position anyways.

I ask you,

would I really be that stupid to do that?

SCUMSLIP??!?!?

#62 & #63

Nice point Enigma

Unvote
Vote:Raymond

I was always suspicious about you and now this makes me even more clearer

This is the basis for most of the votes that went onto RK.

But I think that Bhavit took RK's response out of context, and that Enigma deliberately exacerbated Bhavit's assumption, something that Bhavit then jumped on in a suspicious manner. Whereas I suspect that RK's comment was in response to #49:

I have noticed in my travels that usually, the third or fourth person to bandwagon is mafia.

Is that why you made sure you were the second to vote?
And why you aren't changing your vote because you are afraid it will label you as scum now?

Unvote

VOTE: RaymondKurayami

With Bhavit taking three posts to decide to vote on it, indeed it almost read as if he was waiting for permission from someone to place that vote. That's what made me think he was really scummy. Not sure what to make of Enigma out of it, but if I add it to the SB arguement and a couple of other things then he might be a second scumspect.

FOS schrauben8542

Lylo is no place to be careless with votes lol

Who did the doc claim, I've forgotten.