Mini 1021: Battousai's Mountaintnous Mountain Mafia (Over)

[Leech]

This really isn't something that you can find me scummy for.

It is, and I do. You can't tell me that I can't find you scummy for a scummy pattern that I've noticed in this game. Your argument is that you "believe" that the scum would be on all the mislynches. Considering Prana wasn't, I believe that the scum strategy was to avoid them. In fact, you said something earlier that actually applies to my way of thinking:

Fitz was away for one of the kills, so I tend to think scum wouldn't no kill without talking it over

Obviously the scum would be talking over who to kill, not kill...or no kill. However, I also think they would be discussing who they were going to target, and how they should vote. I'd be surprised if the scum didn't have some sort of system setup around wagons. It's not just kills that scum teams talk about, it's also strategy. So why should I just ignore my feelings on the subject when it makes perfect sense to me? I'm not going to. Prana tried to tell me I was wrong yesterday about him arguing his point from a scum perspective, and I was right. I feel that I'm right here too.

You really shouldn't try to pad your case with gameplay ideals that you don't agree with. This is pretty much why I stopped pushing on you yesterday, I realized we were just from two different schools of thought.

This isn't about "gameplay ideals":

The mis quote, for example, demonstrates a lack a fimlartiy between PD and my slot. This is not something a scum team would have.

That is saying "I'm not scum because..." Which I followed with a perfectly good reason for scum to make that mistake as well. Sorry but if there's more than one explanation available, I'm going to point it out. I'd like to have all sides examined before people jump to conclusions. It's the only way to get it right. Sorry to step on your toes, though.

[LlamaFluff]

So yeah, Sotty is town. Fitz too probably.

Ok, I'm sure that if IAU were here he'd probably agree that we should take new knowledge into consideration before we assume things based solely off of a post he made in the previous phase. The fact that Prana flipped scum, does change things. Especially if you look over the points he made which were used to decide that Prana/Sotty were less likely.

I still do not see IAU being killed by Sotty. If you look at his buddy post, he puts Sotty as LEAST likely partner to PD. So why would Sotty go and kill the person who would probably be putting her as town in this situation? If she killed me or fitz as scum, it would leave IAU to go after Leech and Wolf which she can follow along with. I know people are arguing that stuff changes, but wouldnt scum want to take the risk of things not changing in this situation?

It just seems like a very poor move to kill who will surely be one of your biggest defenders who will also be pushing for a mislynch. Sotty scum I just do not see happening with that kill.

[Leech]

I still do not see IAU being killed by Sotty. If you look at his buddy post, he puts Sotty as LEAST likely partner to PD. So why would Sotty go and kill the person who would probably be putting her as town in this situation?

1) He put her as town before knowing Prana was scum. While he believed that to be the case, seeing it in a flip makes it true. If you read through the previous phases of the game knowing he's scum, it puts a different spin on things than going through looking for potential partners out of all the players in the game.

2) As far as I can tell, IAU never fully caught up on the game. He posted a few things he found interesting, but while looking for pairings, he never got beyond the half-way point of day 2. A lot has happened since then, and he only commented on a couple of current events. For all we know his opinion could have drastically changed after that fact.

3) I can't stress this enough: WIFOM. Each and every NK in this game has been surrounded by it. Night 1: Wendy, Night 2: LML, Night 3: Lat, Night 4: IAU I'm not counting the no-kills as nights. Wendy's death caused a wifom explosion that, can still be debated on why he died. Fact is, He was one of the main suspects. The same can be said about LML the following night. Both of these kills obviously happened to create chaos and screw with the town. Night 3 Lat died and Prana almost got away with it due to the WIFOM being so severe. Night 4 was IAU which looks like was killed for being "most town". It could also be, specifically, because IAU would have cleared Sotty. Therefore it would be crazy for Sotty-Scum to kill IAU. Just like it would be "crazy" for Prana to kill Lat? It's not as obvious, but someone was bound to make that connection. I will admit that jumping to that conclusion is a bit of a stretch, but IAU was the most town.

If you are scum, who do you kill in that phase of the game? This is a serious question that I want an answer to. One of Sotty/Nightwolf has to be scum, so it's fair considering you have to be town at this point. If you are Sotty, IAU just pegged me and Nightwolf as the most likely partners to Prana, so she couldn't kill either of us. The choice would be between Fitz, You or IAU. Out of those three you have IAU which just posted this giant post that bleeds town to the point that he was easily the most town player. You have Fitz that is mainly inactive, and you have yourself. Considering you have been involved in a lot of controversy in this game, potentially more than Fitz depends on how you look at it... You wouldn't be a bad choice, but not a good one either. Fitz's inactivity makes him a bad choice to kill. It puts the strain on the rest of the town. Clearly, if Sotty is scum, IAU was the best choice she could have made. At this phase of the game, the scum would have been utterly stupid to let a threat like IAU remain in the game any longer as well. You were right earlier about scum killing "the most town players". At that point in the game I can't imagine IAU surviving no matter who the scum is.

[LlamaFluff]

1) He put her as town before knowing Prana was scum. While he believed that to be the case, seeing it in a flip makes it true. If you read through the previous phases of the game knowing he's scum, it puts a different spin on things than going through looking for potential partners out of all the players in the game.

He put her as the most town IF PD flipped scum. What he literally posted was "If PD is scum, out of everyone I think Sotty is least likely to be his partner out of all players". If he posted that he just thought that she was town, then you have an arguement, but he posted specifically that a PD scum flip made Sotty probably town.

2) As far as I can tell, IAU never fully caught up on the game. He posted a few things he found interesting, but while looking for pairings, he never got beyond the half-way point of day 2. A lot has happened since then, and he only commented on a couple of current events. For all we know his opinion could have drastically changed after that fact.

He obviously read the entire game if he was voting for PD and was giving partner analysis on the entire game.

3) I can't stress this enough: WIFOM. Each and every NK in this game has been surrounded by it. Night 1: Wendy, Night 2: LML, Night 3: Lat, Night 4: IAU I'm not counting the no-kills as nights. Wendy's death caused a wifom explosion that, can still be debated on why he died. Fact is, He was one of the main suspects. The same can be said about LML the following night. Both of these kills obviously happened to create chaos and screw with the town. Night 3 Lat died and Prana almost got away with it due to the WIFOM being so severe. Night 4 was IAU which looks like was killed for being "most town". It could also be, specifically, because IAU would have cleared Sotty. Therefore it would be crazy for Sotty-Scum to kill IAU. Just like it would be "crazy" for Prana to kill Lat? It's not as obvious, but someone was bound to make that connection. I will admit that jumping to that conclusion is a bit of a stretch, but IAU was the most town.

WIFOM kills were only night one and two. Lat was not a WIFOM kill, that was a standard "get rid of obv-town threat" kill. IAU fell under the same category. I am not aruging that IAU was the most town, but other kills would have made sense for Sotty scum. I think Sotty killing IAU would have been a poor move on her part. While I would like her to be scum to justify my early read, I dont think she is.

If you are scum, who do you kill in that phase of the game? This is a serious question that I want an answer to. One of Sotty/Nightwolf has to be scum, so it's fair considering you have to be town at this point. If you are Sotty, IAU just pegged me and Nightwolf as the most likely partners to Prana, so she couldn't kill either of us. The choice would be between Fitz, You or IAU. Out of those three you have IAU which just posted this giant post that bleeds town to the point that he was easily the most town player. You have Fitz that is mainly inactive, and you have yourself. Considering you have been involved in a lot of controversy in this game, potentially more than Fitz depends on how you look at it... You wouldn't be a bad choice, but not a good one either. Fitz's inactivity makes him a bad choice to kill. It puts the strain on the rest of the town. Clearly, if Sotty is scum, IAU was the best choice she could have made. At this phase of the game, the scum would have been utterly stupid to let a threat like IAU remain in the game any longer as well. You were right earlier about scum killing "the most town players". At that point in the game I can't imagine IAU surviving no matter who the scum is.

IAU or Fitz were the kill from what I saw. Study break over though. More later.

[Sotty7]

Can we get a prod on NightWolf please?

I'll read and respond to the latest posts in a bit.

[Battousai]

Vote Count:

Sotty7

-1- Leech

NightWolf

-1- Sotty7

Not voting:

Nightwolf, llamafluff, havingfitz

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch before Oct 12nd!

NightWolf has been prodded

[Leech]

He put her as the most town IF PD flipped scum. What he literally posted was "If PD is scum, out of everyone I think Sotty is least likely to be his partner out of all players". If he posted that he just thought that she was town, then you have an arguement, but he posted specifically that a PD scum flip made Sotty probably town.

Looking back, you are right. I obviously disagree with the reasons he put Sotty in that position, but he did. I really wish that IAU had been able to post that sooner so I could post my objections to his reasoning. At this point whether or not he would have seen things differently is mere speculation. I will give you that point, though. I still don't think that would have prevented Sotty from killing IAU.

He obviously read the entire game if he was voting for PD and was giving partner analysis on the entire game.

He didn't give partner analysis on the entire game. His analysis stopped mid day 2. He posted the bandwagons after that, but he was no longer looking at posts looking for links between scum partners.

WIFOM kills were only night one and two. Lat was not a WIFOM kill, that was a standard "get rid of obv-town threat" kill.

While it was a "get rid of obv-town threat" it was loaded with WIFOM. Prana was lynched with two votes, that's it. The WIFOM surrounding that kill was enough that scum almost got away with killing someone that was directly accusing them based off of the "It was a setup" wifom. If you believe that Sotty is town, then look at her responses to that kill. If I'm wrong and she truly is town, then the WIFOM was working. If she's scum, as I believe, then it was also clearly a WIFOM kill as she was playing off of it to try and clear Prana. I'm not sure how you can consider this a non-WIFOM based kill when it almost prevented that scum lynch.

I think Sotty killing IAU would have been a poor move on her part.

I don't think it would have been, for the exact reasons you're saying it would be.

[havingfitz]

Monkey butt.

Should be able to post more tomorrow/this weekend.

As mentioned earlier...leaning towards Nightwolf at the moment.

[Sotty7]

I'm still here.

Nightwolf's lurking is frustrating. I don't really have anything to say RE:Leech's continued push on me other than I disagree with nearly everything he is laying out but I can understand his position.

[Sotty7]

Oh hi, happy scum day to me!

[LlamaFluff]

Dear sober me

Drunk me wants to vote fitz still due ot how leech looks liek not scum for the ugly push on PD yesterday and sotty still not making total srnse as scum due to her getitng rid of a defender as opposed to someone who can deal damage also lack of real reasoning to not have PD and FITZ as partners if you look at end of the last day fitz really just igoring the PD stuff expect to say that PD was 'in trouble' at one opint while ignoring what was happening there you should look into why IAU said not him.

Love alchoholic me.

[havingfitz]

So Llama...you've ruled out Leech (for basically the same reason I have) and are leaning against Sotty because of, what I take strictly from your "drunken" post, is WIFOM? You of course rule yourself out. That leaves me and Nightwolf. Your thoughts on Nightwolf are?????

Speaking of Nightwolf.....

hey mod! Where's Nightwolf?

OK...on to my suspicions....looking back at my first post on this day...I can not recall why I was writing off Llama...or at least putting him behind Sotty and Nightwolf. I think they are all a kluge of three suspects for me.

With only two scum in this game I do not believe scum would be as likely to bus their partner. Therefore I am happy to consider Leech town. I would almost feel the same way about Nightwolf based on his suspicions he voiced towards Prana....but they were only voiced. However...as the day was still up in the air and he could have very easily hopped on the Llama bandwagon thereby saving Prana from a lynch...I am inclined to look at Nightwolf as town.

So that leaves me with Llama and Sotty. CA garnered a lot of suspicion early in the game but having not looked back on it...I do not recall the reasons. I was inclined to view Sotty as town based on the fact CA was the only vote on D1 that was not on either xite or tdel. Additionally...I refused to accept the fact that Sotty (who as scum had duped me in our two previous games) could be scum in another game with me. I realize looking back that neither of those reasons is reason enough to discount Sotty and when I look at her and CA’s voting habits...there is nothing that would eliminate them from being scum.

Other than Sotty’s initial vote on PD...she hasn’t been too suspicious of PD (though not everyone has...myself included) and has in fact...done a bit of defending PD.

tl:dr:

I don’t know who the last scum is but I have reassessed my suspects a bit and think that Sotty is a better candidate than Llama and Nightwolf. Soooooooo....

Vote Sotty

[Sotty7]

If Nightwolf doesn't show up soon he will be mod killed which will hopefully just end this horrid game for me. If Nightwolf flips town, I am leaning more towards Fitz than Llama because his reaction when Llama took the easy lynch (me) off the table today was telling. It is also funny because he has essentially 180'ed on me like Llama only in the opposite direction. But it is okay for him I guess.

If Leech is scum I will cry, but I'm not feeling that at all.

[Battousai]

Leech has been prodded!

NightWolf has failed to pick up his prod:

NightWolf -vanilla townie- has been modkilled D7

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch! D7 deadline has been extended 3 days to Oct 15th at 1100hrs (UTC-5)!

[Sotty7]

....

I'm lost right now.

[Sotty7]

I would ask someone unvote me quick though.

Thinking about No lynch, not sure if it will help me much though.

[Battousai]

Forgot to mention, all votes have been removed

[havingfitz]

Crap....that sucks....

At least with my earlier Sotty vote I had the luxury of it not being MYLO or LYLO. Now we move right on to LYLO and my willingness to lynch Sotty is reduced slightly by not having a safety net. Llama or Sotty......expletive.

Right or wrong I'm committed to Leech being town due to his PD offense. I'm still leaning towards Sotty but would like to hear what the others have to say before doing anything rash.

If either of Llama or Sotty turn out to be scum and this game ends in a town loss I am going to be pissed as Sotty has majorly duped me twice now when she was scum and Llama (+ alts) have done so at least that many times.

As for a no lynch....I would be up for that though I would not look forward to the ensuing WIFOM if I made it through the night. Worst case scenario for me it would be me, Llama and Sotty on the next day. Best case scenario...I would get NK'd and not have to stress over it.

[Leech]

Responding to prod.

With Nightwolf flipping town, I'm more confidant than ever that it absolutely has to be Sotty. I do not see Llama being scum at this point. Fitz is a bit more iffy, especially when I just cant get out of my head that Scum has been the only alignment I've ever seen make a mistake about the setup...but the evidence towards Sotty is much more telling to me. Also, as I mentioned in my very first post of this game, the last game I played with Fitz he lurked a lot like this. Also, he did play a very similar game, so as far as I'm concerned he's living up to his town meta from the game I've played with him before.

Now that Nightwolf flipped town, Sotty's "Scum will lead mislynches" argument is completely invalid. Nightwolf and I had a very similar voting pattern. Sotty/CA and Prana have been off of every lynching wagon. It's obvious to me that the scum discussed it, and that they were planning to keep their hands clean in this game. So, naturally, in the phase where I was pushing for the Prana lynch, she was trying to setup for the lynches of Nightwolf, and then myself, with the "scum push mislynches, I do as scum!" story. She also completely refused to entertain the thought of Prana being scum, immediately after listing Prana as her number 1 suspect in the previous day.

Sotty is scum. I'd vote, but we do need to discuss the subject of no-lynching once more.

As for a no lynch....I would be up for that though I would not look forward to the ensuing WIFOM if I made it through the night. Worst case scenario for me it would be me, Llama and Sotty on the next day. Best case scenario...I would get NK'd and not have to stress over it.

I'm on the fence about no-lynching. If I die in the night then it verifies that my case has been written from a town perspective. This is precisely why I feel that I wouldn't be killed in the night. I feel so strongly about Sotty being scum, that I'd rather killer her now because I'm 99% sure would win the game for us. Considering so many people have said I'm town, I don't think I'd be killed. Dying verifies my case, so I dont' see that happening. I'm sure that Sotty is scum, which would undoubtedly result in a Leech/Llama/Sotty end game. With how adamant Llama is about Sotty being town due to IAU's post, I'm not confident in a town victory at that point. I'm much more confident that we can win today. So, I'm not entirely comfortable with a no-lynch when I actually think it decreases our chances of winning, not mathmatically, but logically.

If Fitz and Llama think it's the best move, I'll go along with it, but I have significant doubts about it being the right play here.

[Sotty7]

Well I think no lynch. Simply because it will bring it down to a 50/50 choice. Better odds.

[Leech]

Thinking about No lynch,

not sure if it will help me much though.

Notice how you didn't say "help the town much"? You specifically stated that it would help you.

Well I think no lynch. Simply because it will bring it down to a 50/50 choice. Better odds.

Again, you didn't say "Better odds for the town winning." Considering you have Fitz and Llama both saying I'm town, and Llama is still saying that he doesn't think you would kill IAU, the 50/50 gives you better odds, not the town. This paired with your previous statement on how you're not sure if it would help YOU much, shows your true intentions. Right now, it's not a 50/50 for the scum. After a no-lynch, it would be. As it stands scum would have to convince two people to vote with them, after a no-lynch lylo it's reduced to a single person. So, you just literally stated that the "better odds" you just mentioned were scum odds, not town.

Vote: Sotty

I'm not risking a town loss after no-lynch when we can win this game right now.

[Sotty7]

Vote: No lynch

[LlamaFluff]

Proof im not scum post

Wolf was WIFOM town since he flaked sometime during the night.

[LlamaFluff]

Actually nvm, missed that fitz voted before the modkill

Vote No Lynch

Its the correct play.

[havingfitz]

Sotty and Llama.....would you rank your top two suspects?