Mini 1064 - Charlie's Town (Game Over!)

[FakeGod]

/confirm

Jacked up and good to go.

[FakeGod]

V/LA on October 9th

[FakeGod]

What's on October 9th? Some sort of holiday?

It's my birthday.

[FakeGod]

Vote: q21

because I do not like green eggs and ham.

[FakeGod]

Unvote, Vote: RicharadGHP

[FakeGod]

I am thinking FakeGod is scum based on his response to my vote for Shotty.

Where's your vote?

[FakeGod]

Ok, so having read over everything, including some walls of text that, for being 7 pages into D1, make my eyes bleed, I am inclined to say that at least one of Shotty vs. masfloovinev is scum. There is naturally potential that they're both scum, though I'm less inclined to believe it.

hmm I'm always suspicious of a counterwagon, since they tend to develop when initial wagon caught a scum and his/her buddies try to save him/her by building another wagon.

Of course, the alternative is that we caught 2 town, and scum are fueling both sides, but nevertheless, I'm going to stay with my original vote till further developments.

[FakeGod]

What was useless about FakeGod's post 93?

All it was was a post giving his opinions regarding mafia theory. No reads or questions or anything helpful in it. Convince me otherwise.

Let's see..... we have a RVS wagon, then another wagon quickly popped up soon afterwards.

I expressed that I'm thinking Richard is more likely to be mafia than Shotty since there's a chance that town caught a mafia in the first wagon, and his mafia buddies are attempting a rescue via presenting another wagon.

The speed of the wagon, as you may have noticed, was pretty fast, and this is actually pretty important. This is important because: town usually have few people who tends to vote "faster" (trigger-happy?), and emergence of a new wagon usually means that "faster" people will abandon the original wagon for the new one. This is not what happened. The original wagon on Richard was stable despite the growing counter-wagon on Shotty. This implies that something else (for example, mafia might be fueling the second wagon) is at work here.

[FakeGod]

I haven't factored in the fast growing 3rd wagon into the theory yet, and there is also a chance that 3rd wagon, not the 2nd wagon might be scum-fueled.

[FakeGod]

But regardless which wagon might be mafia fueled, seeing all these fast growing wagons leads me to believe that mafia are throwing fuel into the fire.

Only reason they would do so I think would be to save Richard (or possibly Shotty).

[FakeGod]

I think Richard is scum.

[FakeGod]

@Spyrex: I don't know man I'm not God

btw, I find Reckamonic impossible to read in this or other games.

[FakeGod]

@Richard: Question: why did you say that no one ever caught all three scum first day, instead of just straight up denial "I'm not scum"?

[FakeGod]

so Richard didn't claim when he was about to die?

*shrug*

I guess he wanted to be lynched.

[FakeGod]

Should we lynch inside the wagon or the outside?

If we assume 2 scum on cop wagon and 1 scum outside, that gives us about 2/7 nailing scum inside the wagon, and 1/3 nailing scum outside the wagon.

[FakeGod]

Vote: SpyreX

As you wish.

[FakeGod]

wait, I thought chainsaw defense attack can be only used if the person in question flipped scum.

[FakeGod]

Because he's scum and tryin REAL hard not to OMGUS

I thought he already voted you back?

[FakeGod]

@mas: 1) You say I went from "suspecting him a bit" to "Richard is scum." In the first post you linked, I made my vote on Richard official, if you didn't realize. I already believed he was scum from the first post you linked, and I didn't change my mind suddenly, contrary to what you're saying.
2) As I stated before, my vote on Richard was based on mafia theory. If you don't agree with my theory, then there's nothing I can do about it.
3) A) You're just overthinking it. It was more of a disguised "who do you think is scum?" question. (based on which side of wagon people pursue, this should give hints to subtle relationships between scum) I did a similar thing in Newbie 985 around post #485 when I listed possible outcomes and asked people which one is most likely. Sure, 2/7 < 1/3, but difference in probabilities are small enough, and watching for relationship between 2 people on wagon instead of one inside one outside is bit more easier.
B) I don't understand. How is this related to my survival?
4) I post probabilities from "audience"'s point of view, unless I specifically point out a point-of-view from one player.
5) Seeing that I voted and defended my vote on Richard which eventually resulted in his lynch, I'd say I'm playing Mafia.
And if I didn't give you any reads, how did you come up with all these points above?

Contradiction.

[FakeGod]

I think I responded rather nicely.

[FakeGod]

@ FakeGod -

We would be interested in hearing more about why you suspect that the scum breakdown on and off the wagon is 2:1.

The speed of the lynch is what I'm going off of at the moment.

A 7-page lynch on d1 is pretty fast, fast enough to for me to suspect that it was a scum-fueled wagon.

I'm guessing 2, possibly all 3 scum on the wagon, but I haven't seen a game where entire scum team jumped on the wagon really fast.


@substrike and Nacho: what do you think of each other? Town? Scummy?

[FakeGod]

@Shotty: Claim?

[FakeGod]

And why not?

[FakeGod]

That's a great loaded question, Nacho.

Because everything obviously depends on the role in question, it could be protown to claim early or claim at the last second.

Now, in any cases, claiming at L-1 is untrustworthy, and way too risky.

You're giving the scum the option of sacrificing one of their members to take out a powerful role.

[FakeGod]

how about a JOAT?

I know there's no way I would trade a fully loaded JOAT for a mafia goon.

[FakeGod]

come to think of it, I wouldn't want to trade even a cop or doctor for a mafia goon.

Would you?

[FakeGod]

@Nacho: huh, I thought Shotty was at L-2.

@SpyreX: how do you know whether this game will end with 2 mislynches?

[FakeGod]

Defending himself is what he should've been doing entire time. I'm discussing when is the right time to claim.

[FakeGod]

>.>

<.<

don't be hatin'

[FakeGod]

@Nacho: what are you talking about??? I'm not at L-1.

but if it came down to me whether to lynch Shotty or me, since I'm 100% sure I'm town, I would hammer Shotty.

[FakeGod]

substrike beat me to it, but if mas's vote in 312 wasn't the

definition

of an opportunistic scumvote, I'll eat a hat.

unvote, Vote: masfloohinev

[FakeGod]

I switched my vote to FakeGod in particular, because he

is

my top suspect and he has the biggest bandwagon apart from Shotty who I don't want lynched because he is getting replaced.

If I was your top suspect, then why didn't you vote me over Shotty days ago?

In fact, Shotty's wagon even went to L-1. You seemed perfectly content with his lynch.

Tell me, if you think my vote for FakeGod was opportunistic, then what do you think was the scum motivation for me switching off of the Shotty bandwagon, a player that had more votes?

Well, for one, he could be your scum-mate.

I think you're just using the fact that shotty is being replaced as an excuse to jump over to my wagon.

preview: ninja'd by substrike

[FakeGod]

Personally, I'm leaning town on jmurph. I'm not getting the gut suspicious "don't trust that guy" feeling.

[FakeGod]

Questioning how many scum were and weren't on the Richard wagon is particularly helpful in hunting scum

so you agree with me that that figuring out how many scum there are on the Richard wagon would be particularly helpful in hunting scum?

Nice! so why are you voting me then?

o and I'm sure substrike is town.

[FakeGod]

hmph, I actually do read posts here, you know. >.>

regardless, I don't see much "meat" in your case against me, because I like to analyze voting patterns/theorize where the scumvotes would be, etc. when I'm scumhunting.

Unfortunately, you're not really into that stuff, so therefore I'm (in your eyes) not doing much right now.

Still, I'm going to point out that this is a style difference, something I can't really respond to.

[FakeGod]

I'm at L-1.

Obligatory claim: I'm VT.

[FakeGod]

It seems that I'm going to be the lynch for today.

My last guess on the scum team is mas, Nacho, and CES.

[FakeGod]

So the entire scumteam is on your wagon?

Yeah! We caught them all!

[FakeGod]

Well, I'm going to assert again that I am indeed town.

I don't understand how all the bandwagons collapsed into mine, but I really don't know what to say.