Open 248: Two of Four - Game Over

[CommieX]

^^^

This means charter's vote on BA is "safe" as the scum team now is obligated to include either charter and BA or one of them - which means it's a vote by scum or a vote on scum or is both.

Remember, FMPOV, you're not clear

[Thor665]

Frankly I agree with charter - I think someone on the scumteam noted the potential PR slip. It's the only way to justify not killing you.
I'm not sure how that makes me feel about charter. I know he noticed it.
I think edmund would notice the slip.
My gut feel is that BA wouldn't.

[Fenchurch]

Second Vote Count of Day Two:

BlakAdder - 1 (charter)

Not Voting: 4 (CommieX, edmund.angles, Thor665, BlakAdder)

With five alive, it will take three votes to lynch someone.

The current deadline is: Thursday 21st October, at 23:00 GMT.

[Thor665]

Remember, FMPOV, you're not clear

Even if I'm not clear, you know I'm not edmund's partner - which means my partner is either BA or charter. The logic is sound from your perspective and was written as such (I hardly need to convince myself I'm not edmund's partner, after all)

[charter]

I'm not unvoting Blak, it's pointless. As is Thor and edmund unvoting. Basically all that matters is who CommieX votes, since if he votes wrong, the scum will quickhammer, if he votes right, they won't and we'll lynch the scum.

I've explained why I believe it to be a good reason and now because you two disagree with me suddenly it's a scumtell

I never would have agreed, I wasn't around to express my disagreement when everyone was talking about it yesterday.

Why do you think scum killed smashbro?

Cause they thought he was a PR and they knew the other power role was useful.

[Thor665]

@charter - do you always try to lynch Pie is Good when you play with him?
What's your read on edmund? You said you'd work on that.
Having two of three people unvote is arguably good since, by definition, one of us was wrong in our vote. I have zero issues with you holding your vote since I know one of you and BA is scum.

Why do both you and edmund want CommieX to decide the lynch for today? Yeah, he's proven town - all that means is we don't vote him, it doesn't mean he's gained mystical insight into who is most likely scum. You're being silly.

[CommieX]

I'm not unvoting Blak, it's pointless. As is Thor and edmund unvoting. Basically all that matters is who CommieX votes, since if he votes wrong, the scum will quickhammer, if he votes right, they won't and we'll lynch the scum.

Scum can quicklynch off a townie though. Wasn't that part of your reason for voting blak?

[charter]

@charter - do you always try to lynch Pie is Good when you play with him?
What's your read on edmund? You said you'd work on that.
Having two of three people unvote is arguably good since, by definition, one of us was wrong in our vote. I have zero issues with you holding your vote since I know one of you and BA is scum.

Why do both you and edmund want CommieX to decide the lynch for today? Yeah, he's proven town - all that means is we don't vote him, it doesn't mean he's gained mystical insight into who is most likely scum. You're being silly.

As far as I know, I've only played with Pie once or twice, I don't remember much about the games I was in. So I don't remember if I always try and lynch him.

My reread on Edmund hasn't happened yet, I'm still caught up with Blak.

Why do I want CommieX to decide who to lynch? He's going to have to vote for scum today or we won't get a lynch (unless scum bus each other) so it just makes sense to wait for him.

Wasn't that part of your reason for voting blak?

No, my reason for voting Blak is he knew I couldn't be quicklynched because he is scum.

[CommieX]

I'm sorry people, but don't expect to hear from me tomorrow

I'd still like black and edmund to answer my question however.

[BlakAdder]

@Commie: Very sorry, I completely forgot about your question.
Anyway, I don't see my logic behind NK'ing Smashbro. He hardly talked at all, and he only even cast suspicion on one person (edmund).
The closest thing I can think of for a decent reason for killing him would be that a PR would be more likely to stay quiet during the day for the sake of keeping attention away from himself.

[edmund.angles]

Ok, let's make something completely clear:
There are 3 town players.
It takes 3 to lynch
-> It takes all the town to lynch scum (barring bus)
-> All confirmed town must be on the lynch
It is bad for town players to move votes because each vote is a potential loss
-> Confirmed town votes first, once, the others follow.
-> Confirmed town gets to tell people what to do to help come to a conclusion.
Behold the power of the confirmed townie in LyLo!

I didn't see this myself untill this game, since I've never actually been in LyLo before, but once I realised it I assumed this was why Thor was so keen to have confirmed townies....and why I considered him obvscum when he did something that went against this logic.
I still haven't decided if he's just feigning ignorance, but he's not obvscum to me anymore.

Thinking about the smasbro kill and re-reading for role tells leads me to the same conclusion:
I don't think smashbro gave off strong PR tells - he simply opposed the massclaim.
On the other hand there was a point where both Thor and myself could have claimed PR.
We were three people on the pro-massclaim wagon and CommieX gave the PR permission to claim, that makes 4.
The fact that we didn't claim at that point were VT tells.
That leaves three people: Smashbro, Charter and BlakAdder - all people I could read as PR.
My conclusion is that a Charter - BlakAdder scumteam would have had a really good chance of hitting PR, and that any other team would have had to take a significant chance.

[CommieX]

Hey everyone, I lied. Quick post here.

I have another question, and honestly the one I should have asked first: Do you think that scum killing smashbro was overall a good idea? (Ignoring the fact that in hindsight, we know he was cop)

[Thor665]

It's not a bad strategy. They had to either kill you or the other PR. They certainly couldn't afford to kill anyone else.

@edmund - confirmed town is strong in lylo by limiting choices and being known town votes. Confirmed town is not the magical and only possible way to find scum in lylo.

[CommieX]

Meh...Well I guess there's no point in beating around the bush, the lynch is going to be blakadder or charter.

@Blakadder: Charter's already made a case against you. Your turn. Why should we lynch him instead of you?

[charter]

Meh...Well I guess there's no point in beating around the bush, the lynch is going to be blakadder or charter.

@Blakadder: Charter's already made a case against you. Your turn. Why should we lynch him instead of you?

Not only that, but he completely ignored it, like he's hoping it will magically go away or something.

[edmund.angles]

I want to see BlakAdder respond to Charter's case before I put in my two cents on either BlakAdder or Charter.

Mod: could we get a prod on BlakAdder, please

[Fenchurch]

BlakAdder has been prodded.

[BlakAdder]

The main reason I'm hung up on Charter is that he's so dead set on getting me lynched. After not mentioning any suspicion of me at all on the first day, he suddenly is absolutely sure that I'm scum because I voted for him. Bonus points for that fact that he refuses to take his vote off of me after everyone else removed their votes.
In addition, he specifically phrased his rereading me as "going to prove BlakAdder is scum." (Post 172) If I'm so positively scum, couldn't you had given some proof besides OMGUS when you voted for me originally. Quick counter-question to Charter while I'm on the subject. What do you think makes your vote any less suspicious than mine?
In addition, in his reread of me, the only evidence he could muster against me was some drifting and turning my vote on Opa into a scum tactic. I can't see any valuable information that would have been gained yesterday with Opa drawing attention to himself so frantically anyway, there was no harm in my vote even if it eventually turned out to be the hammer anyway.

[Thor665]

How did we get into the BA or charter choice again? To my mind the real question edmund and I should be pursuing is - are BA/charter the scumteam? If we come up with the answer to that our votes are easy to make.

@edmund - you seem to believe both BA and charter are scum, why do you need to hear a response to a case in this situation?

@charter - people are acting as though you've made a case on BA - I agree with him that your case appears to be 'he voted me' if that's a case everyone but CommieX is already guilty of the scumtell. How do you define it as working for him but not being applicable to the other three players?

[CommieX]

How did we get into the BA or charter choice again? To my mind the real question edmund and I should be pursuing is - are BA/charter the scumteam? If we come up with the answer to that our votes are easy to make.

Because the only thing we know is that you and edmund are not the scumteam.

@Thor: Answer your own question: What do you think the likelihood of a charter/BA scumteam is?

[Thor665]

And we also know that at least one of BA/charter is scum, but what I want to discuss is since I know my alignment why we shouldn't also be discussing the Thor/edmund angle. If we can clear or indemnify one of Thor/edmund it's as good, if not better than, the BA/charter choice.

I don't think it's that likely, that's why I voted edmund. I've already said this.

[Thor665]

I will admit the more I consider it we (and by we I mean I, though edmund could flip his name for mine) do have this situation;

(charter, BA) edmund

Wherein there is a guarantee of <0 scum within the parenthetical making a choice of charter/BA 50% accuracy whilst the choice of edmund is 33%.
I was applying the logic of 0% chance for <1 within the parenthetical to equate to 100% accuracy for an edmund choice, but I'll admit that's a bit of a gamble.

[CommieX]

And we also know that at least one of BA/charter is scum, but what I want to discuss is since I know my alignment why we shouldn't also be discussing the Thor/edmund angle. If we can clear or indemnify one of Thor/edmund it's as good, if not better than, the BA/charter choice.

Unless you can find something that nails Edmund as scum, so what? Yeah, we get one scum and clear you, but that still leaves us with the choice of charter/BA in the end. Again, the ONLY thing we know is that you and Ed aren't a scumteam. There's plenty of reasons a pair of scumbuddies would be voting each other, one of them being this:

Scum A
Scum B
VT A
VT B
Clear Townie

*Scum A and Scum B vote each other*

VT A: Well, since they can't be a scumteam, it must be VT B! *votes VT B*

*Scum quicklynches VT B, town loses*

[CommieX]

EBWOP: I'd like if Ed was more active, as he's looking the most town right now.

[edmund.angles]

I think there's a good chance that both BlakAdder and Charter are scum - due to the smashbro kill as I said. But I am by no means convinced that this is the case.

(me, Thor) look like unlikely scumbuddies so I agree it makes perfect sense to limit the choice to BlakAdder/Charter since it gives a better than 50% chance of hitting scum. However, when choosing between a BlakAdder and Charter lynch I can ignore the (BlakAdder, Charter)-scumteam possibility since this possibility gives me no reason to prefer one over the other. The only way I can find a preferred lynch among the two is considering how likely each of them are to be scum while the other is town.

Scumminess in Charter:

1. He kept a very low profile Day 1
- Reiterating Thor's arguments for being on the opa wagon. He could have at least elaborated on the arguments.
- No posting in the critical phase of the game with mass-claim vote and hammering.
2. Unwillingness to unvote.
- He's right that the unvote doesn't really matter anymore, but why didn't he step down when Blak unvoted? Tunnelvision perhaps, but he could have unvoted just to make everyone else feel better and still argue for the Blak lynch.
3. Style of posting.
- He doesn't engage in discussion by e.g. asking questions and when asked something he is more hostile than most.
- Does anyone have meta on Charter (maybe Charter), to see if this is a style?
4. His "now your wiggling in the net, scum"-posts at Blak. Not useful for actually getting Blak lynched.

Townieness in Charter:

1. His case on Blak makes sense to me.
2. Agknowledging that CommieX has to make the lynch decision.

Scumminess in Blak:

Charter case:
1. Non-committal
- Yep.
2. Wanting to rush into night phase.
- Blak seemed far to eager to end the day- trying to hammer although he was requested to wait.
3. Voting first thing in LyLo:
- I don't give much for Blak's promise to unvote if he saw another vote, since he left the vote on for 12 hours.
I'd like to add:
4. BlakAdder's 'secret plan' part I, the lying:
- BlakAdder said he lied about having a secret plan.

The plan I mentioned to Opa was a gambit to see how he would react. Nothing more.

5. BlakAdder's 'secret plan' part II, the breadcrumbing:
- Mentioning a secret plan implies secret PR powers that we now know he doesn't have.
- Perhaps he was trying to set up a fakeclaim Day 2.

Townieness in Blak:

nothing

I prefer the BlakAdder lynch by quite a wide margin.