Open 248: Two of Four - Game Over

[CommieX]

EBWOP: Charter, you voted black but then gave all of these reasons why thor is maf.

Reason for voting black?

[Fenchurch]

First Vote Count of Day Two:

charter - 1 (BlakAdder)
BlakAdder - 1 (charter)

Not Voting: 3 (CommieX, edmund.angles, Thor665)

With five alive, it will take three votes to lynch someone.

The current deadline is: Thursday 21st October, at 23:00 GMT.

[charter]

EBWOP: Charter, you voted black but then gave all of these reasons why thor is maf.

Reason for voting black?

He's scum, which he told me with his vote on me. If he's town, then he wouldn't vote me since he wouldn't be sure that I'm scum and scum could quicklynch me. His reason for voting me is nonexistant, so he knows scum aren't able to quicklynch me, because he is one of them.

[Thor665]

@charter Re: massclaim - I don't think you understand the value of a confirmed townie today - which is what massclaim would give us. If smashbro had declared today he wouldn't have been a confirmed town because scum would have counterclaimed and we would have a 50/50 flip to lose. I'll begrudgingly accept that as a cop he was potentially more useful, but the RBer and doc would have been useless and easily CCed.

Re: me getting off }|{opa wagon - I take it then that your presumption is Thorscum got off it in order to get town points for not being on a wagon I started?

We definitely have a decent option in front of us with charter/BA as a choice. For me and edmund we *have* to understand that one of them is scum because we know we aren't and we know CommieX isn't.

charter or BA is the vote for today.

At the moment I'm leaning charter town for reasons I already noted about BA earlier. I still haven't done my re-read yet (I'm lazy - will do it sometime between now and Thursday evening)

[Thor665]

@edmund
@CommieX

Shouldn't need to say this, but let's chat about the options in front of us before anyone votes.

[CommieX]

@Thor: Why the switch from edmund to charter?

[BlakAdder]

Addressing a couple of things before I continue.
I realize my vote on Charter was risky. I was trying to get conversation started because as I said, I had no reads on anyone besides being slightly suspicious of Charter for not contributing. So I wanted to jump start conversation anyway I could. At this point it's either served its purpose or it hasn't. So

unvote

The plan I mentioned to Opa was a gambit to see how he would react. Nothing more.
And lastly, I finished my reread and it's only left me more unsure as to whom I suspect. Another reason for me to unvote.

[charter]

Yeah, sure. You realize you're caught and now you're backtracking.

[Thor665]

@Thor: Why the switch from edmund to charter?

Because with charter and BA voting each other they can't both be scum (or they are - and that works out fine as well)
Given that I have three suspects (edmund, charter, BA) having two of them prove they're not partners (charter and BA) lets me know as a fact that there is at least one scum in the pair.
A 1/2 is better then a 1/3.
Therefore we don't lynch edmund today, we lynch either charter or BA since one will be scum and if we lynch wrong it won't matter what edmund is. If we lynch correct we can debate edmund tomorrow.

[BlakAdder]

@Charter: Tunnel vision much?
And if you could, please explain something to me.
You said you're worried about scum quicklynching since I voted for you. We know for a fact that there are two scum in this game.
Now, there are two ways this could play out:
1) I'm town. This would require both scum to be online at almost the same time (which would be highly improbable) and make a risky play in order to pull it off.
2) I'm scum. That would only leave one other scum to vote for you, so that would require a townie to put a second vote on you, and seeing as how we've played so far, it doesn't seem to me like anyone would be willing to put that vote on you.

The way you seem to be viewing the issue of my vote on you seems to me like you know I'm town. Care to defend yourself?

[charter]

@Charter: Tunnel vision much?
And if you could, please explain something to me.
You said you're worried about scum quicklynching since I voted for you. We know for a fact that there are two scum in this game.
Now, there are two ways this could play out:
1) I'm town. This would require both scum to be online at almost the same time (which would be highly improbable) and make a risky play in order to pull it off.
2) I'm scum. That would only leave one other scum to vote for you, so that would require a townie to put a second vote on you, and seeing as how we've played so far, it doesn't seem to me like anyone would be willing to put that vote on you.

The way you seem to be viewing the issue of my vote on you seems to me like you know I'm town. Care to defend yourself?

This is a terrible defense of your backtrack. First off, I don't think any scumteam with half a brain between them doesn't plan a quickhammer for LYLO. Here's a quickhammer we pulled with no daytalking that was two minutes apart. I'm sure there's been plenty of others.
http://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewto ... 0#p1933446

Your second point is just trying to defend your action by saying that I was in no risk of being quickhammered, which was exactly the justification I gave for you being scum.

How about you give me the town motivation for your vote, 'starting discussion' is the classic backtrack answer.

[charter]

Quick case on Blak, not much time so it's a little rushed.

Pretty non commital on a lot of his reads, leaving them wide open to shift if he needs to later. Here's a few examples.

That's the thing, I'm having a hard time labeling you as scum or newbie town. I was almost in your exact shoes in my first few games so that definitely seems realistic to me. I'm just having a hard time making up my mind.

@Thor: I really have no idea how I feel about smashbro. He's only made one post, and there's not a whole lot to take from it. I do find it strange, however, that he argues for the popular wagon, suddenly shifts gears and votes for Edmund instead for buddying up to Opa. Like I said, I'm really not sure what to make of it right now.

@Thor: The case on edmund so far revolves around the idea that he's buddying up to Opa, and in my mind that means the case sort of hinges upon whether or not Opa is scum. He seems to be at least trying to be pro-town, so I'm holding off on him for now.

Then he masks his vote on Hopa as a policy vote.

Okay, Opa, you want me to speak up?
I'm officially ready to hammer Opa at any time. If anyone else thinks I should wait, then speak up, change your vote, do something. I'll give... let's say until nine o'clock tonight, my time. That's twelve hours from now. If my mind hasn't been changed by then, I'm hammering Opa.

Well I hate to end it before everyone's had a say, but I've waited long enough. I've kept my word to wait til 9, now it's hammer time.

vote: }I{opa

Even acknowledges that he's trying to cut the day short.

Then he starts out today acknowledging we're in LYLO, and then immediately voting me for about no reason.

This actually looks really cut and dry. Now to go take a look at which of Thor/Edmund is his buddy.

[Thor665]

@Thor: Why the switch from edmund to charter?

Because with charter and BA voting each other they can't both be scum (or they are - and that works out fine as well)
Given that I have three suspects (edmund, charter, BA) having two of them prove they're not partners (charter and BA) lets me know as a fact that there is at least one scum in the pair.
A 1/2 is better then a 1/3.
Therefore we don't lynch edmund today, we lynch either charter or BA since one will be scum and if we lynch wrong it won't matter what edmund is. If we lynch correct we can debate edmund tomorrow.

I've got to admit, the more I'm thinking about this the more insane and stupid it becomes - simply because it means edmund is the 'gotta be scum' since the only way he's not scum is if BA and charter are buddies.

Vote: edmund.angles

[edmund.angles]

First of all, Thor has revealed himself as scum FMPOV:

vote Thor365

The way I interpret Thor's vote is that he didn't like the scum chances in the choice between Charter and BlakAdder.

CommieX is clearly gonna decide who is gonna get lynched today and in his first post he said he considered Thor town.

Therefore Thor is trying to make it a question of him vs. me in stead of Blak vs. Charter.

His 'Townie' argumentation for voting me doesn't hold water:
1. He ignored that both Blak and Charter could be scum, something he himself mentioned one post earlier.

Because with charter and BA voting each other they can't both be scum (or they are - and that works out fine as well)

This was a very real possibility since this could make the other scum look town in the next LyLo.
2. His chances of hitting scum are irrelevant if he can't convince CommieX so there's no reason for Thor to argue based on his own chances of
hitting scum.

about massclaim today: I considered it useful to massclaim because there was still a remote possibility that CommieX was scum and the other PR was
hiding, especially because CommieX survived the night. Recent events have now excluded that possibility.

about massclaim yesterday: We're in the worst case scenario after a no-massclaim. But this here is

excactly

the situation we could

expect

if we had massclaimed. It was a thoroughly bad idea and I'm embarrassed that I went along with it for a while.

@CommieX: You are the one who decides the outcome today one way or the other. I suggest you take charge and tell everyone else what to do to help you come to a conclusion.

[CommieX]

Hey Einsteins, I love it how we're in lylo, yet ALL OF YOU ARE VOTING. Unvote please.

[edmund.angles]

unvote

[Thor665]

@CommieX - I am disinclined to vote, because the only way my vote is dangerous is if the scumteam is BA/charter and I don't really believe that pairing is very likely.

In response to edmund's two points about my case;
1. Actually, I didn't ignore this, when you quote me talking about it I'm proven to have considered it - not ignored it. When I voted you I explained my belief on the question. Also, if you think I'm now scum and deserve a vote, then you should AGREE that both of them aren't scum and that should make you unwilling to unvote me since I'm then obvious scum, just as you are to me.
2. ...is this even a scumtell on me or a damaging of my case? My chances for hitting scum are irrelevant? Bwuh?

I'll happily debate the massclaim question with you and charter in post game. Your duality of opinion is noted for consideration tomorrow. In more seriousness, I've explained why I believe it to be a good reason and now because you two disagree with me suddenly it's a scumtell? Meh, by the sheer fact you agreed with it yesterday it ought to be an equal scumtell on you - hell, by you noticing and reversing your previous position I don't understand why it should make you look any better/worse then me. Also, the first person to bring it up was the now confirmed vanilla townie, which means that massclaim talk was a null tell.

[Thor665]

EBWOP - disinclined to *unvote

[edmund.angles]

@Thor:
1. I never said bringing up the massclaim yesterday was a scum-tell I simply said it was a bad idea- you are misrepresenting my words. Charter said it was a scum-tell.

2. CommieX is the swing vote for town, whoever he decides to vote for, the other players should follow.
Otherwise town cannot reach a majority for a lynch.
So as a town player your only concern should have been whether your vote made it easier for CommieX to hit scum.
Your vote did nothing to make it easier for CommieX to come to a decision.
Quite the contrary, it had the chance of immediately costing town the victory, had you been town.
Furthermore it fuddles discussion because we now have to consider all players again.
Your vote was anti-town.

3. I'll be happy to discuss massclaim in post-game, but I'll be saying exactly the same thing.

4. Go back and read for tomorrow - I will return the favor - do your worst, then I'll do my best .

[Thor665]

So as a town player your only concern should have been whether your vote made it easier for CommieX to hit scum.

Well...or that I was voting scum, because with all due regard to CommieX I'm not planning to sort of shrug and walk away and go 'he's our only chance, may God guide his vote well.'

Quite the contrary, it had the chance of immediately costing town the victory, had you been town.
Furthermore it fuddles discussion because we now have to consider all players again.
Your vote was anti-town.

I was the one that "narrowed" the choices so we weren't considering all players. Argueably I've narrowed it even more now, since I only wish to consider you.
Why no commentary on charter who is still voting BA? If my vote for you is so anti-town why not mention his continued vote on BA?

Finally - why do you think I'm scum? If it's not the massclaim thing, and it's not your muddled mumblings of narrowing choices why did my vote clarify me as scum to you exactly? Why does this scumtell not apply to BA and/or charter?

[CommieX]

Post that isn't unvoting.

You are needlessly betting the town's victory on the chance that Charter and Black are not a scumteam, something I apparently find to be a lot more likely than you do. We have plenty of time here, and we're in LYLO, so there is NO reason whatsoever ANYONE should be voting yet.

@ Charter, Thor: Unvote. Now.

[Thor665]

Dude...

Unvote: edmund.angles

Okay, so now we get charter to unvote and...what? Do you have any particular angle of conversation you really want to get going here? Do you really believe that the scum team is charter/BA? Do you think the scumteam is Thor/edmund? Those are the only ways either vote is risky. If you don't want to advance a lynch yet then please advance a conversation angle that's worth having - otherwise I'm wondering why we're unvoting.

[Thor665]

By the way, scum team is obviously not Thor/edmund as otherwise we would have already hammered on charter's vote of BA as we were both on and talking at the same time while that vote was out there. One possible combo down.

[Thor665]

^^^

This means charter's vote on BA is "safe" as the scum team now is obligated to include either charter and BA or one of them - which means it's a vote by scum or a vote on scum or is both.

[CommieX]

Dude...

Unvote: edmund.angles

Okay, so now we get charter to unvote and...what? Do you have any particular angle of conversation you really want to get going here? Do you really believe that the scum team is charter/BA? Do you think the scumteam is Thor/edmund? Those are the only ways either vote is risky. If you don't want to advance a lynch yet then please advance a conversation angle that's worth having - otherwise I'm wondering why we're unvoting.

It just makes me feel better

TBQH, It's more myself trying to use the maximum amount of caution in LYLO. There really IS no reason to be reckless here, recklessness is not your friend in LYLO.

I do have a theory right now, but I'm a bit swamped between homework and play practice so I don't have time to post it atm, I'll try to get it up tonight but before then, I have a question I'd like yalls to answer: Why do you think scum killed smashbro?