/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Rhinox]

Apologies for my extended absence. After being busy all weekend, I was laid up sick in bed all day yesterday. Got some things to catch up on at work now, and then as soon as I get some free time this afternoon, I'll get caught up in this game.

[ooba]

Good to see Fate in the game ..

[VasudeVa]

Bah. I really tried to reread but I really can't find it in me to continue.

I request replacement

Final picks for scum:

SpyreX
ooba
mith
Maayybe Seraphim

[ooba]

From D3 onwards - Till end of page 51

- Scum chose elmo over KMD for the kill. Reposting suspicions of both:
KMD: Rhinox, Vas, mith, DGB
elmo: DGB, Vas
Thoughts: Nothing really useful from this

Also, Why wasn't KMD blocked if elmo was the scum kill?
It's suboptimal to try and block a possible role while you already have a claimed informational role. There's something wrong here.

Addn: 1264 - "Agree with Rhinox's point 3 that a second Vig remains a possibility, and that Kmd unblocked lends weight to that possibility, and that we shouldn't discuss this in detail - if we have a second Vig, we will likely know it for certain tonight."
Back to 1263 - might be a possible slip by Rhinox (and mith?) - JK blocking the Roleblocker might also explain why KMD was not blocked - the fact that this possibility was not considered might point to inside info that a JK might not have been added - Hence never considered as a scenario?

1255: @mith
- Decent point on the 1041

1256: @iam
Why did you vote elli over one of "Palumporom, Rhinox, Spyrex, DGB, mith"?

1257: @MMe mirrors my thoughts on mith

1259: @iam
- Why did you miss 1041 of DGB? (mith's case about a possible slip on tajo)
- DGB case seems stronger than the one against Rhinox but voted Rhinox in the end. Also
- "DGB/Rhinox pairing is so strong that a town flip on one would probably cause a drastic change of opinion on the other." - ??

1260: @SpyreX reactions to iam
- "I'm a little surprised to see ekiM that low, actually."
First I thought spyreX was saying "Why isn't ekim more scummy?" - Did an ISO to see that he never mentions ekim before that - Found it suspicious before I realized that "that low" means he thinks ekim is town
Reactions are fine.

Thoughts as of page 51:
- Pretty sure I was wrong about the mith-DGB pairing
- iam-DGB pairing looks very likely
-- Also 1273 looks like iam cheerleading mith-KMD town-town argument
-- Or I could be wrong and it's mith-Rhinox
- Anyway would prefer a DGB flip over mith

Vote: DGB

[Fate]

PRAISE ALL THAT IS FAIR AND JUST VV'S SLOT IS GETTIN AN INJECTION OF COMPETENCE

[Fate]

Damnit Fate while I appreciate the awesome we got a few points to cover:

1.) Hoopla scum? I'm gonna need more because while not thrilled that maneuver oozes town.
2.) Sera scum? He's been one with the hatemachine.
3.) VV TOWN FATE NO DONT YOU BE THAT GUY. NO.

Pretty much everything else <3

1) We know the setup to be 2 VIGS and a tracker. Search your soul and if you don't find it there I'll explain next week with two hands. For shenanigans purposes I'll play along as if there were 4 though
2) Remember how much justified hate you had for soras+KoC? REMEMBER??
3) I didn't want to be. I really didn't. I want to come in here and cruise on a VV lynch regardless of alignment for his D1 play, but D2+3 has me convinced.

He's being groomed for a mislynch down the road. Scum are letting him live with a pass, letting his haters live (you), and then later on he'll be ripe for the LyLo. HE NEEDS DEATH BEFORE THEN BUT THATS THE DAMN VIGS JOB.

Today we lynch sera scum and get TWO TOWNIES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE in the form of MME+VV

[Fate]

ooba just soiled th hell out of the DGB wagon and YOU GUYS THAT ARE VOTING DGB NEED TO PAY ATTENTION AND UNVOTE.

[Fate]

Also, Why wasn't KMD blocked if elmo was the scum kill?
It's suboptimal to try and block a possible role while you already have a claimed informational role. There's something wrong here.

Tell us what is wrong then, because:

1. It ain't KMD scum
2. A townie with half a brain would know why he was left unblocked
3. You pointing out these "suboptimal shenanigans but drawing no conclusions from it is SCUMMY AS ALL HELL.

Ooba moves to #2 immediately

[ooba]

1278: @DGB
Cheerleading

@mith: Who is DGB's partner?

1286: If its mith-Rhinox, add Plumpom to that group

1326: @SpyreX, IIRC you think Rhinox is scum with VV? Who are the other possibilities ..

1328 - "Then again, Town would also attack me but I consider them collateral damage." - Lol

1331 - Call it confirmation bias but I can see this as iam bussing an eventual DGB lynch and setting up a future link on DGB-Sera .. Might have been planned in the QT too ..
- If iam actually believes DGB is scum and DGB left out Sera on purpose, the explanation is that DGB is trying to paint a townie as her scumbuddy before getting lynched

1348 - AD is scum

[Fate]

SO GLAD YOU COULD JOIN US IIOA SCUM

[SpyreX]

1) We know the setup to be 2 VIGS and a tracker. Search your soul and if you don't find it there I'll explain next week with two hands. For shenanigans purposes I'll play along as if there were 4 though
2) Remember how much justified hate you had for soras+KoC? REMEMBER??
3) I didn't want to be. I really didn't. I want to come in here and cruise on a VV lynch regardless of alignment for his D1 play, but D2+3 has me convinced.

1.) Fatteeee read the setup better yo. There's 4 town PR's assigned by scum. Scum have RB and 1-shot Jan. Hoopla sacc'd themselves to waste the jan (woosh but a town woosh). My magic 8 ball is still showing Vig + Tracker with the other two unknown. Where are you getting 2 vigs from?

2.) TRUE but if I'm lynching for that knot I'd still prefer a VV yo.

3.) HELP ME UNDERSTAND what you see. I'm missing it entirely.

[Kmd4390]

Ooba, I could definitely see mith/rhinox/plumpom as scum. The 4th would either be DGB or Vas.

[Fate]

1348 - AD is scum

COMPROMISE TIME SPYREX.

He had 36 posts to go to be fully caught up, but he just peaced out. Not to mention how lacking in freshness his catchup post was thus far.

Unvote:
Vote: ooba

Also I get 2 vigs from it being really unlikely that they didn't RB Elmo OR KMD last night, as there was no way they'd let a known vig get a freebie shot off on mislynch fodder. Plus 2 vigs 2 trackers seems about right when lining up shitty PRs that dont jive well for the town to have (as you can see with half our PRs being outted by D2)

[Kmd4390]

Fate, why is not having a catchup post a scumtell?

[Fate]

As for #3, VV TRULY BELIEVESZ that his mindless wagonnin is good play for town (at least from him since his reads are shit) and that being lynch bait is fun.

Ellieland is prime example of VV replacing in and being obvscum and being lynched. I'm TELLIN ya he's just fodder for LyLo

[Fate]

Fate, why is not having a catchup post a scumtell?

You ever tried to catchup as scum? Its EXTREMELY more difficult compared to town, as you have to read 55+ pages and come up with bullshit cases. Requires a lot of effort.

I can't tell you the number of scum I've caught based on replace-in catchup posts. I've seen scum vote in LYLO before without having fully caught up, based off -and i quote-"these last few pages". If only all scum could be so obv.

I mean, sure there are lazy town that lack motivation to catchup fully and post content, but they drop more apathy tells. The thing with ooba is his LOLDGB VOTE, and then parkin it there before he finishes his read.

INGENIUNE=SCUMZ.

[Kmd4390]

You ever tried to catchup as scum? Its EXTREMELY more difficult compared to town, as you have to read 55+ pages and come up with bullshit cases. Requires a lot of effort.

I don't think it requires any more effort than it does as town. This is comparable to the old fashinoned "scum lurk because they don't have to pay attention" arguement.

I can't tell you the number of scum I've caught based on replace-in catchup posts. I've seen scum vote in LYLO before without having fully caught up, based off -and i quote-"these last few pages". If only all scum could be so obv.

A bad catchup post, maybe. Because there is info to actually analyze that way. If someone is like "I'm too busy/lazy", it's not a scumtell.

I mean, sure there are lazy town that lack motivation to catchup fully and post content, but they drop more apathy tells. The thing with ooba is his LOLDGB VOTE, and then parkin it there before he finishes his read.

INGENIUNE=SCUMZ.

Ok, I can see your point here. I was more concerned with the Sera/Saint points you made though.

[VasudeVa]

As for #3, VV TRULY BELIEVESZ that his mindless wagonnin is good play for town (at least from him since his reads are shit) and that being lynch bait is fun.

Ellieland is prime example of VV replacing in and being obvscum and being lynched. I'm TELLIN ya he's just fodder for LyLo

That's your fault. YOU DESTROYED MY SOUL IN ADVANCE WARS MAFIA FOR NOT BEING SCUM. EVERYTHING I BELIEVED IN WAS A LIE. /kidding.

That's an inaccurate description of my meta. We need a better sample size.

[Fate]

Ok, I can see your point here. I was more concerned with the Sera/Saint points you made though.

One of those two slots is scum. They both played the "overwhelmed" card and didn't comment on the whole thread. Sera wins this scummy race because the first of his catchup posts were easy setup based posts "lol we picked jan+RB heres my thoughts on mafiaz theoryy", then he devoted all of his content to exploiting VVs scummy play.

I give SK a slight pass because he was only along for the ride till MME came back and its easy to see the lack of motivation to catchup n full on a game that isn't yours whereas SERAZ is STILL HERE and not providing content outside VVscumtalk.

[Kmd4390]

Do you know sera IRL? If not, how do you know he isn't just too busy or something?

[mith]

I'm back in the country. Will catch up tomorrow.

[iamausername]

DGB

I R HIDER

I'm... going to need a bit more than that, I'm afraid.

1256: @iam
Why did you vote elli over one of "Palumporom, Rhinox, Spyrex, DGB, mith"?

Because I thought it would help draw attention to Elli, which is something he was (and still is) sorely in need of. I knew my vote was going to be moving with my next post, to either Rhinox or DGB, but I wanted to park my vote somewhere nice and provocative in the interim to see if anything interesting happened. (yes, Spy, lol reactions. DEAL WITH IT.)

- Why did you miss 1041 of DGB? (mith's case about a possible slip on tajo)

I don't think that's a valid point against her. I think it would be very easy for a townie in the D2 situation of "assume Elmo is the vig, because if he's scum, he'll be taken care of tonight" to mentally reduce that to "assume Elmo is the vig".

"DGB/Rhinox pairing is so strong that a town flip on one would probably cause a drastic change of opinion on the other." - ??

I think it's pretty clear?

-- Also 1273 looks like iam cheerleading mith-KMD town-town argument

Please explain how scum me would benefit in any way from fighting townmith's corner against a

confirmed townie

.

- If iam actually believes DGB is scum and DGB left out Sera on purpose, the explanation is that DGB is trying to paint a townie as her scumbuddy before getting lynched

I don't believe that DGB left out Seraph on purpose. That would be a bloody stupid thing to believe, because if she was doing that, she obviously wouldn't have done it so conspicuously. It would have been far less noticeable if she'd fudged the numbers to put him somewhere at the bottom of the list instead of giving him enough points to reach the scum playoffs, then making him mysteriously vanish halfway through the post.

I believe DGB genuinely did forget Seraphim, I'm saying that her doing so is scummy, because I think the name of someone she'd been suspicious of previously would stick out to townDGB, wheras scumDGB I can easily see forgetting about someone she'd been "suspicious" of.

Do you have any intention of elaborating on how you think a DGB/mith pairing is remotely plausible?

Also, this:

Throwing out a thought - KMD not blocked equals second vig? No need to discuss in detail as even though scum already know the answer, the discussion could provide clues to identify. Just thought it was worth mentioning to keep in consideration.

Agree with Rhinox's point 3 that a second Vig remains a possibility, and that Kmd unblocked lends weight to that possibility, and that we shouldn't discuss this in detail - if we have a second Vig, we will likely know it for certain tonight.

I have thoughts about this, but I think it's better to keep them to myself right now.

As should everyone else.

Let's please stop helping scum find the two remaining power roles, shall we?

[Rhinox]

No, because Troll made no mention of what this said for MME's alignment. Pointing out that MME was paying no attention is a null tell, because that was both blindingly obvious and not particularly against scum's interest to point out anyhow. Pointing out that MME's cluelessness was a pretty big town tell in that situation is less obvious, and something that scum would have considerably less inclination to say.

OK I see your point I guess I was thinking that it was pretty obvious to anyone reading that MME was either town or acting scum from his comment, so scum would not want to draw any attention to the comment at all.

Right, I meant to complete that thought later on; the fact that you never actually followed through on this, in addition to the highly artificial tone I picked up from the wording, makes me think the whole thing was just staged as a little piece of distancing between you and DGB.

I think it's very interesting that you freely admit that you had no intention of acting on what you were saying there, rather than claiming to have changed your mind later.

What made you think it was a good idea to make a completely insincere post like that?

I was wondering if that was the direction you were going. If it were distancing from my scum partner DGB though, haven't I gone and completely erased any potential scum benefit from that by riding the "DGB is town" train ever since?

Whats so interesting about me freely admitting that I had no intention of following through on my threat to tunnel on DGB? As I said, it was just me whining and raging about how I got "tricked" into voting for the janitor. I wasn't thinking rationally about the statement at all, so I can't say I thought making the statement was a good idea. But your question is worded in a funny way that makes it seem like making the statement was a bad idea or anti-town, and I don't see how it was that either.

Really, not even #3?

That it wasn't proven, or at least more likely than not to be true, no, not even #3. Not enough to make a list and say "one of these guys is scum" anyways.

How important is this point to you with regards to my allignment? If I link to this post, it shows that of the 6 people on tajo's list, prods were retracted on 2 of the players anyways. That pretty much means that "1) All the players on tajo's list were lurkers." is false. If its required of me, I'm sure I can go back and find some other players that may not have been prodded at that particular time, but were fitting of the lurker label, thus showing that "2) There were no other lurkers outside of tajo's list." is false and there were indeed lurkers not present on tajo's list. The thing is, tajo's dead, so I don't particularly care any more. Continuing to discuss it isn't helping me find scum, its only me defending myself against something that I'm not entirely sure why its some big negative mark against me.

By the way, zoraster made similar (worse, imo) comments with regards to tajo's list in this post as well as this post and nobody held it against him.

(preview edit: in case that wasn't obvious, that was a subtle "spy was attacking me for the comments but didn't mention zoraster" inconsistency accusation)

Haha, nicely done.

So, when nobody did seem to pick up on your subtle attempt at requesting an explanation for the zor votes, why did you not make the request more bluntly?

At the time, I didn't think it was a subtle request. I think I forgot about it getting sidetracked by a discussion with spyrex, that went no where, and then deadline got close. At some point, I remember someone else asking more bluntly about it, but it must have been during early D2 discussion or I keep missing it while scanning the end of D1. Anyways, if it looked like zoraster was going to be lynched, I probably would have been more demanding for an explaination. As zoraster was not being lynched, I guess I didn't view getting an answer as a priority.

I might go back and take a look at that D1 zoraster wagon when I get some time tomorrow. No one gave an answer and the wagon dissolved. Now that I'm thinking more about it since zor's flip D2, there was probably scum there on D1.

Yeah, no, because you knew you had no case there. The whole thing smacks of scum being irritated that a townie has confirmed themselves, basically.

Yeah, I guess I can see how you'd come to that conclusion. Idk, I don't really have an answer for this one, other than "you're wrong". Given that it looks like hero was a vig kill, he didn't exactly confirm himself to everyone, anyways.

HYPOTHETICAL SITUATION:

Bob says "Sally said the word "pie", which scum would never do!"
Zoe links him to a previous game of hers, which neither Bob nor Sally were involved in, where scum player George said the word "pie".

Please explain in 500 words or fewer why Zoe is scum in this situation.

Scum saying "pie" once does not make it likely that scum will always say "pie", especially when saying "pie" is not a good strategy.

I think RayFrost's play D2 in Flash Mafia is definitely comparable to Vas here, right up to having legions of fools convinced that he was town for no good reason. I know, because I was one of those fools. And I recall Spyrex gunning pretty hard for him.

Oh hey, and this time it's a game you were involved in, too!

yeah no. Spyrex's general D1 attitude towards RF in that game:

Woosh:

Me: Rayfrost is town because he is genuine. There isn't any feel of manipulation from his posts.
You: He hasn't been scumhunting. The only player's he's gone after are Mufasa and Snow Bunny (which, gasp, would be scumhunting but I digress)
Me: MANY players haven't been scumhunting. Why is that justification for HIM being scum at this point of the game?
You: Why is that justification for him being TOWN at this point in the game? P.S. Strawman
Me: What? How is your line about his not scumhunting not justification for his lynch? If not what is it? (This hasn't been answered, still)

I am saying I do not think Ray is a justifiable lynch because he seems genuine in his play. Further, the speed and style of this wagon reek of a mislynch.

...and RF was not lynched D1. Spyrex was pursuing other targets. It wasn't until D2 when the whole town piled on obvscum RF that spyrex joined in. Even then, spy said:

I'll freely admit if this flip is town I'm not going to be surprised. Pissed, but not surprised.

So it seems like in that game, town spy never really thought RF was scum at all until his flip. Now I'm not sure if I would say RF's play was equivilant to VV's play here - I wasn't actually a part of that game until well after both RF and spyrex were dead, so the early game is even harder for me to recall than the later. But assuming it was, town spy was pursuing alternatives to the easy "VI" lynch until it became inevitible that RF was going to be lynched. In other words, exactly the opposite as how he is playing in this game, basically tunneling on the easy "VI" lynch and not seriously pursuing other targets at all.


And, that may be it for tonight. Wanted to get completely caught up, but only had time to respond to iam again. I'll quickly scan and see if there is anything I can quickly respond to, but I've been working on this post for like an hour and a half, and its already past my bedtime. I could have been playing halo reach, you know...

[Ellibereth]

Ugh..

unvote

[Rhinox]

oh, there was this one comment that KMD made that made a lot of sense.

Should we lynch someone on V/LA because being V/LA can come from either alignment, but only scum would lie about it?

This has been the comment that makes the most sense to me regarding mith vs. kmd, and I'd like to here a response from mith in the context of "either town or scum could not have a clue about whats going on in the thread, but only scum would fake it" - mith's logic for voting zoraster.

The rest of the conversation still doesn't make any sense to me.

----------------------

Skimmed the last 3 pages again and there is lots of interesting stuff, but nothing I have the energy to break down, analyze, and comment on tonight. maybe tomorrow.


Oh, and I'm not voting anyone?

vote: spyrex