Ladies Night -- Game Over

[UncertainKitten]

EBWOP: I mean cepi.

[Miyu]

First of all, objectively, you're included in the scum list. My "list of four" replaces me with you. cepi's list of four replaces her with you. Hoopla's list of four replaces her with you.

So, don't even TRY to float past the "it's in those four" bullshit past me. YOU, TOO, ARE A SUSPECT

There you go.

Why Sotty, cepi?

cepi, your theories rely heavily on us three confirmeds/claimeds all surviving the Night. Which is a pretty ridiculous notion. One of us three is bound to die during the Night. Why in the world would scum eliminate one of the unknowns?

[UncertainKitten]

Um...where are you getting that at all Miyu? (And I know I'm not objectively cleared. As I said, it was the choices

for me

. You never made such a qualification)

Anyway, from what I can tell, cepi isn't relying on anything that's not true

Today

3

U

1

T

(ok, or GF)
3

CT

Lynch an unknown. Now, we are relying on the unknown being scum for the rest of this. That's the only assumption that could be a problem.

So we lynch scum

N4 leaves us with

2 U

1 T/GF

3 CT

Obviously scum are killing a PR. Apok is killing an unknown

Now we have branching paths. Assumably you jailkeep me, btw.

If I'm scum:

Well, obviously no kill occurs. We lynch or shoot me. I flip, game over.

If I'm town, but no kill:

We lynch me, I flip town

We're left with

1 U

3 CT

Apok shoots the unknown. Game over, we win.

If scum successfully kill:

I become confirmed, so it's

1 U

3 CT

Oh hey, lynch the unknown, we win.

THERE IS NO WAY FOR TOWN TO LOSE IF WE LYNCH SCUM TODAY! THAT IS THE ONLY ASSUMPTION CEPI MAKES!

Now that's the thing, isn't it? We can exclude me from the lynch pool today, obviously. So we have to pick scum with a 66% chance of success.

Now, do you think you can try not to screw that up, Miyu, or is it too hard for you?

[UncertainKitten]

...OH YEAH!

I forgot, it's a 33% chance if I'm scum. Regardless, the game is still solvable at that point even if we lynch town. We have two branches

A:
N4 is

2 U

1 T/GF

3 CT

Hmm...I think it's still optimal to block me, but if someone has something more optimal go for it.

Now, two choices. Apok shoots, going for a 50/50.

We either lose or kill a scum. If we don't lose

1 U

1 T/GF

2 CT

See the path about blocking me again. lynch unknown, block me or shoot me, whichever one of you is alive.

Now, if Apok DOESN'T shoot

2 U

1 T/GF

2 CT

Well, obviously Snow_Bunny is dead now. So we have a block and a gun. We take our own 50/50 on lynching. If we miss, we still win. The wincon is that all other factions are ELIMINATED. With the vig alive, she can shoot the other unknown, who is confirmed scum, and Miyu can block me, who at that point is confirmed scum.

You go into D6 with

2 CT

1 GF

So, actually, we literally cannot lose.

[UncertainKitten]

Yeah, in fact, the only way we DON'T win is if Apok shoots when we lynch town.

[UncertainKitten]

OH! I forgot one thing.

If Hoopla counterclaims, lynch Hoopla, if she flips town Apok obv shoots Miyu.

Leaving us with
...a terrible situation if Miyu is lying...

We basically lose our guaranteed win....

[Miyu]

I'm confused. I'm wondering how you can possibly surpass the totals idiots I've already come across. but I think you take the cake.

[UncertainKitten]

So, you somehow have a way to defeat my analysis of the game?

If so, please provide it.

If not...

Shut the fuck up you arrogant, fucktarded, asstastic pile of shit who amazes me in the fact that you can even type with how much of a complete fucking FAILURE you are.

Really now, can we stop this? Write her some private hate mail, but please don't sully my game with this trash anymore.

[UncertainKitten]

Actually, there is a flaw.

RedCoyote: As the scum wincon is written, do they win when they comprise 50% of the town or when they can completely eliminate it? The way it's written implies the latter. So if it were 2 v. 2 with a vigilante alive, would town still have a chance?

Just a standard ruleset. In the rules I've laid out, with optimal results, the Vigilante and scum shots would cancel out, leaving 1v1. Since there's no way for either player to be lynched, the game would, if played out, go into night. Consequently, the last town member would be shot, and the scum would fulfill their win condition.

[Hoopla]

WHAT THE HELL? STOP EVERYONE!

I

AM THE JAILKEEPER

Targets:

DGB N1
OJANEN N2
SB N3

I was reading along the last page in the thread, and I can't believe you all have fallen at Miyu's knees with that slow play. Did anyone think here that it was strange that Ojanen was the kill last night? It's because scum were fishing for the Jailkeeper, rather than taking a (probable) free kill on a powerrole - someone confirmed town. The only reason you'd kill a non-confirmed player over a confirmed player is if you're trying to kill the JK, or you're an idiot who doesn't understand that process of elimination will soon fuck you over.

Ok. Even if Hoops counterclaims Id believe Miyu more (way of claiming, emotional outburst, etc).

These sort of quotes make me feel sad, but if the town doesn't believe my claim and I am lynched instead, we

should

still win quite handsomely as Miyu can be vigged tonight with nothing to stop that. This point has been covered off already, but the beauty of this is that we lock myself or Miyu into today's lynch and tonight's NK which guarentees us scum. I'll do my best to convince you that Miyu is the liar, and I am the real Jailkeeper here, so I'll start with my targets;

On Night 1, I didn't have any particularly solid town reads, after Paws flipped town, but I wanted to utilise my action to give as much chance of stopping a kill either way (by protecting or blocking). I've been a Jailkeeper once before, and only got one use out of it before I was NK'ed (Mini 975) - I used it as a straight doc to protect camn that game as she was obviously town. This game gave me no such vibes, and realistically, I could see scum's NK targeting up to 6 or 7 different players. I had a slight scumread on DGB, which opened up the possibilities of her perhaps making the kill, but I also know she is a hot target regardless of how good or bad her Day 1 is for scum, as she is unpredictable and has the ability to turn it around rapidly. I deemed a JK on her the likeliest way to stop a kill, by either a block or a kill.

On Night 2, this choice was a lot more straighforward as Ojanen really started to look protown. I wasn't going for the longshot of blocking a kill, but more so a doctor protection to protect a strong town read. I think it was quite obvious to many people she was very town from that day onward.

On Night 3, I JK'ed Snow_Bunny for a logical reason. If she was going to be night-killed, that nets us no further investigations, and she really was the likeliest candidate to be killed that night. However, if I JK'ed her, then although it still gives us no further investigation, it also gives a real chance of stopping a kill, which gives the vig an extra shot before it drops to even numbers again. The only way Snow was going to get us another investigation was if the scum killed someone other than her, which seemed very unlikely at that point. It's also important to note, that scum wouldn't have known if town had a roleblocker or a jailkeeper at that point, which would have made Snow a much more attractive target that night. It turns out not Jailkeeping her was the right play, but I still thought the odds were way higher than 50% that that was where the scumkill was going.

---

Anyway, there is NO way Miyu is anything but scum right about now, so this is where my vote goes;

VOTE: Miyu

Appologies for my absence, I'll be making it up to you now, and not be letting this scumbag be taking advantage with her bogus claim.

[UncertainKitten]

Well, there goes our guaranteed win. I was hasty last night in saying lynch Hoopla. Not that I necessarily believe her, but I think I need to read some things first.

Really now, can we stop this? Write her some private hate mail, but please don't sully my game with this trash anymore.

I'd love to. If she would. Just because she's more subtle about it doesn't make it any less wrong.

[Snow_Bunny]

Hoopla or Miyu... Hoopla's claim seems more sincere, but Miyu's timing looks better. I was kind of suspicious of Hoopla before, and I recall nothing about Miyu. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, I don't know what to do.

Let's flip a coin... No, that won't work. Let's see what happens if we lynch badly now. Any of the game analysers out there?

[UncertainKitten]

Well, as I said, if we lynch wrong shit gets bad.

Yes, Apok will shoot the other. Then you or Apok will die.

We go into D5 with

2 U

1 T/GF

1 CT

The good news is we either retain a gun or you have a cop investigation.

If Snow_Bunny lives and investigates a townie:

Our lynch choices are me and the Unknown. Straight 50/50 on whether we win.

If Snow_Bunny lives and investigates scum:
Obv win.

If Apok lives:

We lynch an unknown, and once again it's 50/50 with Apok choosing to shoot me or the other unknown.

Basically, we have a lot of 50/50 possibilities and a couple solid wins.

But it's really chancy. We really, REALLY want to lynch right today. Here's the thing. I'm more inclined to believe Hoopla right now. Miyu was VERY resistant to massclaim, and I think it was because she was doing exactly as I said scum would do. Holding back a claim so she could 1 v. 1 in lylo, and hope people suspected Hoopla more. Miyu was in a far better position for that. Hoopla counterclaiming is really risky for scum, sure, it COULD pay off but it STILL doesn't guarantee the win. Especially since the general mood was to lynch Hoopla if she counterclaimed.

[Sotty7]

Ugh. Brain says vote Miyu. Gut says vote Hoop.

chaucha was scummy in the early game. Snow White lurked like crazy and then Miyu slow rolls the mass claim (waiting on a buddy?)

Hoop's claim makes more logical sense when I read it, but if Snow is telling the truth then counterclaiming was HoopScum only option at this point. I have had a reasonably strong town read on Hoop for most of the game which is leaning me more towards Miyu. I'm in no rush to place a vote right now.

Miyu, why did you decide to block Snow last night?

[Miyu]

I only have about five minutes before I leave for class. Then I'll be back later to fully read.

But I see Hoopla counter-claimed. What a dumb group of scum there are in this game.

Vote: Hoopla

Night 1. Chau chose DGB, for reasons I have no idea.
Night 2. SnowWhite did not use the role.
Night 3. I chose SB, because it is better to have a confirmed townie alive, than take a gamble trying to block a scum's kill. Granted the large con of blocking her role as well. But I figured that it would be better to have more confirmeds around, than a dead cop.

Also, if you don't believe my claim. THen why do you think I believed SB from the getgo of her claim? Why do you think I never believed DI's claim?

Think about that.
I'll respond to any thing else when I get back from class.

[Miyu]

BTW. Lucky guess on DGB there, Hoopla. Fortunately for you, SB outed that she was JK'd. Though she should not of, as it would've been a way to aide in confirming the real one - which is me.

[Apokalyptika]

I was about to say that I felt better about Hoopla, but then I went back and read. Hoopla's first post after the claim says that she tends not to believe it, while Miyu says she has no reason not to in one of her megaposts. Seems strange that Hoopla would actively say she didn't believe, given the knowledge she claims...

[Miyu]

Did anyone think here that it was strange that Ojanen was the kill last night? It's because scum were fishing for the Jailkeeper, rather than taking a (probable) free kill on a powerrole - someone confirmed town. The only reason you'd kill a non-confirmed player over a confirmed player is if you're trying to kill the JK, or you're an idiot who doesn't understand that process of elimination will soon fuck you over.

So you were fishing for the JK eh? Nice of you to admit it, and be so certain in your statement. Well, considering that DI claimed a silly powerrole yesterDay and here you are fake-claiming toDay. Yepp, the scum are pretty much idiots.

These sort of quotes make me feel sad, but if the town doesn't believe my claim and I am lynched instead, we should still win quite handsomely as Miyu can be vigged tonight with nothing to stop that. This point has been covered off already, but the beauty of this is that we lock myself or Miyu into today's lynch and tonight's NK which guarentees us scum. I'll do my best to convince you that Miyu is the liar, and I am the real Jailkeeper here, so I'll start with my targets;

I highly doubt any one will be vigged toNight. If this village decides you believe your fake claim over mine, then this village is lost, and just throwing away a good standing at this point. If you manage to get me lynched. I will flip JailKeeper, and you will probably kill Apok - so she can't vigi you. Gets rid of two confirmed's right there. Then toMorrow, the town should lynch you. But no telling really for certain.

It's also important to note, that scum wouldn't have known if town had a roleblocker or a jailkeeper at that point, which would have made Snow a much more attractive target that night.

Then how do you explain the 'no result' which SB got on DGB the first Night? You think there was some secret role out there? Hmm?

Anyway, there is NO way Miyu is anything but scum right about now, so this is where my vote goes;

Unless hell decides to freeze over right now, there is NO CHANCE you are JailKeeper.

Fixed tags

[Miyu]

Ugh. quote tag fail.

[Hoopla]

I was about to say that I felt better about Hoopla, but then I went back and read. Hoopla's first post after the claim says that she tends not to believe it, while Miyu says she has no reason not to in one of her megaposts. Seems strange that Hoopla would actively say she didn't believe, given the knowledge she claims...

Hi Apok, here was my initial reaction to Izzy's claim yesterday;

Oh joy, guarenteed scum today or tonight!

Izzy's probably the scum though. I REALLY want to see what DGB thinks given her flipflopping on SB.

In this situation I knew Izzy's claim was bogus, but stopping and thinking, scum had little motivation to try such a gambit knowing someone could have easily counterclaimed sealing their fate. This made me believe scum were fishing for my role, and although I was early on the wagon, I was cautious not to telegraph my hand too much. I was aiming to get Izzy lynched, without giving the scum my role, which I think is quite evident in the way I played yesterday - I really never at all considered a vote for Snow.

I am absolutely DAZZLED that Miyu is trying to extract town credit for her reaction to Izzy's claim, when she didn't post until AFTER Izzy was hammered. Granted, she was likely under the impression that she was the hammer-vote, as DGB forgot to unvote when changing her vote elsewhere, meaning it still counted on the Izzy-wagon, but the fact is, everyone besides Ojanen posted in between when Izzy claimed and Miyu's first reaction. I fail to believe that anyone else in her situation wouldn't bus Izzy when she is at L-1 (or already lynched) - she has no other options than to bus.

On the contrary with my reaction to Izzy's claim, I was actively pushing her wagon before her lynch was guarenteed, which if you're going to count that passage of play for anything, it is I who deserves more town credit, because I actually

had

the option to push alternate theories, but didn't. But then, if I was just going to bus from the outset, pushing Izzy's wagon, why would a hypo-Hoopla-Izzy decide to make her claim doctor? I know I'm appealing to meta, but I am not that dim to make my scum-partner claim something that nets ZERO scum advantage. I've done my fair share of coaching - in Mini 932 my only partner was rung up to claim on Day 1, and I coached him into claiming Gunsmith, which lasted him until lylo. I have other similar examples of my scumplay, which showcases my ability to create long-term plans as scum - I fail to see how the town could genuinely believe

that

was a Hoopla-endorsed plan. If anything (although I don't think she is dim), Miyu was far more disconnected from the game, in conjunction with Izzy - it's

more

plausible that they didn't consider the full ramifications of what Izzy was claiming.

Also, if you don't believe my claim. THen why do you think I believed SB from the getgo of her claim? Why do you think I never believed DI's claim?

Again, believing Izzy's claim is irrelevant, because you were the last to do so, and it happened after she was hammered.

[Hoopla]

Night 1. Chau chose DGB, for reasons I have no idea.
Night 2. SnowWhite did not use the role.
Night 3. I chose SB, because it is better to have a confirmed townie alive, than take a gamble trying to block a scum's kill. Granted the large con of blocking her role as well. But I figured that it would be better to have more confirmeds around, than a dead cop.

Convenient answers to the targets question - can you tell me why you didn't claim targets with your claim initially? It looks like the build-up to your claim is fishing for reactions on how widely believed you'd expect to be if you were to infact claim, which helps you decision to make the plunge or not. Your Snow block sheeps my logic, and again, doesn't improve the scummy slow-play of your fakeclaim.

A question for everyone:

What is it about Miyu slow-playing/soft-claiming throughout today that you believe?

[Hoopla]

I highly doubt any one will be vigged toNight. If this village decides you believe your fake claim over mine, then this village is lost, and just throwing away a good standing at this point. If you manage to get me lynched. I will flip JailKeeper, and you will probably kill Apok - so she can't vigi you. Gets rid of two confirmed's right there. Then toMorrow, the town should lynch you. But no telling really for certain.

Of course someone will be vigged tonight. There is no we're lynching anyone other than you or I, and if the town picks wrong, then the vig killing you tonight is GUARENTEED.

Scum and vig kills resolve simultaneously

, so even if scum were to target Apok tonight, she'd still get a shot out if need be. Woops, there goes your scumplan!

Unless hell decides to freeze over right now, there is NO CHANCE you are JailKeeper.

Someone please tell me this wording looks strange to you. I think my main problem with it is that she states there is no chance I'm the jailkeeper, rather than make the direct correlation that I am scum. This shows her motives are subconciously more grounded in making me look like an unlikely jailkeeper, rather than scum. Although there is a direct link between the two, doesn't it seem bizarre to state the other person has no chance of being the jailkeeper, when this is of course is your role? It's redundant, but almost as if she doesn't know it is, as if she needs to enforce the chance of me being truthful doesn't exist.

Of course in

her

situation, she is to

know

she is truthful, but it's a very forced mode of response. I think this stems from the tendancy that liars tend to overcompensate when they know they're lying. You're more focused on convincing others you're truthful, than actually just being truthful - and this is what this reads like. Someone from a neutral perspective weigh in on this please.

[RedCoyote]

Vote Count 4.2

• Miyu

  (1) (Hoopla)
  
  
  Hoopla

  (1) (Miyu)
  
  
  Not Voting
  (5) (UncertainKitten -

  Miyu

  - Sotty7 -

  Hoopla

  - cepi - Apokalyptika - Snow_Bunny)

With seven alive, it takes four to lynch.

Current Deadline: Oct. 18th, 2010 at 2:15 AM (CST)

[Miyu]

Hahaha. You entertain me Hoopla.

I know I'm the JailKeeper. So I don't need long winded posts to explain how I am the JailKeeper. Or long winded posts dissecting your every move.
I don't need to do any of that. Why? Because I know for 100% certainty that I am the JailKeeper.

Like I said. Unless hell decided to freeze over, there is no chance you are the JailKeeper. Which automatically says you are scum - and doesn't need to be clarified by me. Because a townie counterclaiming a power-role at any time, let alone mass claim. Is ridiculously stupid, and a giant -facepalm-. So either you are a facepalm-worthy scum or epic face-palm worthy VT (which there is an infinite source of hell no.)

So no, keep trying Hoopla. It greatly entertains me.

[Hoopla]

Hows about you reply to my point about you not posting a reaction to Izzy's claim until she was hammered? That observation about your wording was a minor point - respond to the big ones, rather than just trying to discredit me based on my smallest point.