1043 Spontaneous Bastard Mafia: Game Over

[rewq455]

@pacman, did you target me last night? This is not to trap you. Answer honestly and we have a better shot at winning the game. And if you didn't target me, you must have targeted the mod, am I correct? (ohhh, and btw I still don't get your tving point, explain a bit more plz...)

I was dead. I targeted no one. Indeed, I didn't care about this fuckin' game anymore.
Not answering to the idiots who keep insisting on that my joke about the scumteams was a scumslip *cough**cough*

I am getting the feeling that not answering people will just dig your hole deeper. Have you used your make phrases true power at all yet? I can think of a few ways you could have used it to avoid being lynched.

[pacman281292]

I wasn't lynched. I was moddayvigged.
Also, answering pointless question is pointless, and annoying.
I tried to use one of my phrases a few posts ago, but it looks like either that mechanic was kept hidden, or that it didn't work at all. I hope the case is the first.

[brianj]

@zang, ok deal, but what was the purpose of the "census" and if it was just a script how did you know it wasn't sent in...

I was pmed by the mod when day started that no one sent it in. And you do realize that by asking what the census does, your asking me to claim? 

I don't see a way for you to get away from the whole census thing without claiming.

It's not yet an immediate concern though, especially if nobody responded to census (which I suspect is required for Zang to use his ability)? Knowledge of who got the census should be enough for now so that if something freaky happens to one or most of them we can start to apply pressure at that junction.

pacman is slight-town read if I had to choose between the two, just because I don't see much avenue of attack toward him besides that "another scumteam" comment thing. His behaviour after kill was pretty curious since posting after death is handsome mod-kill material (I read few past games here and I never saw case of someone - even trolls - breaching this rule), and possibly mean that pacman knew he was not really dead in the first place or he'll come back to life. His almost VI-ish accusation against his attackers then could possibly been attempt to gain town credit, but I am debunking this theory for now because I don't think mod will tolerate scum breaching the rule (temporarily but still) to establish his rating.

[rewq455]

I wasn't lynched. I was moddayvigged.
Also, answering pointless question is pointless, and annoying.
I tried to use one of my phrases a few posts ago, but it looks like either that mechanic was kept hidden, or that it didn't work at all. I hope the case is the first.

What was the phrase?

I was thinking you sent in a phrase that made it appear that you were mod dayvigged to avoid lynch.

[tanstalas]

@tans I looked up some basic statistics and found this. I hope this proves that I:
a) Know basic math
b) Understand statistics better then you (hell uv allot better thank ah you)
c) Adds more to my case, because you spread falsehood throughout the town.
Here’s that linky:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy, you can also run a quick google on that fallacy also. Rather neat how soo many people throwaway their life's saving on such crap logic as that...

I NEVER said that the odds of being scum in ANY ONE PARTICULAR GAME was less, I said in 2 consecutive games. Do you have a reading comprehension issue as well as math comprehension?

Let's also assume that a game has 8 players and there are 4 scum and 4 town. Now this would be game over right there, but I want to make this as transparent as possible.

So lets also say that you played 2 games these are the possibilities you could have
(Scum, Scum)
(Scum, Town)
(Town, Town)
(Town, Scum)

Still with me and agree with the above?

OK now what are my chances of being scum in BOTH games? If you said 1 in 4 or 25% give yourself a cookie
What are my chances of being scum in one game and town in the other? If you said 1 in 2 or 50% give yourself another cookie
And my chances of being town in both games? 1 in 4 or 25%

Mathematically this can be expressed by just taking the percentage of each chance since there are 8 players and 4 are scum and 4 are town there is a 50% chance of being one or the other so

The chance of being scum in both games = 50% * 50% = 25%
The chance of being scum in the first game and town in the second = 50% * 50% = 25%
The chance of being town in the first game and scum in the second = 50% * 50% = 25%
The chance of being town in both games = 50% * 50% = 25%

Now add the middle two ones because they are both the same "overall" end result (played 2 games, 1 was scum and 1 was town) = 50%

Now - to put it into an F11 setup - you have 11 players, 2 are scum and 9 are town
Chance of being scum in any one paticular game = 18.18%
Chance of being town in any one paticular game = 81.81%

So using the above again:

The chance of being scum in both games = 18.18% * 18.18% = 3.30%
The chance of being scum in the first game and town in the second = 18.18% * 81.81% = 14.88%
The chance of being town in the first game and scum in the second = 81.81% * 18.18% = 14.88%
The chance of being town in both games = 81.81% * 81.81% = 66.94%

Add the middle two together because OVERALL it is the same result = 29.76%

so 66.94% + 29.76% + 3.30% = 100%


Seriously, go look up independence probability theory.

I am done with this conversation.

[tanstalas]

Oh and the reason I am not voting you is the more you talk the more I think you are just a VI

[pacman281292]

@tans: Stop being Cliquey for fuck's sake.

[tanstalas]

I can't wait until this game is over so I can let him, Adrien, Yabba, McG all see this game

[Fate]

No idea about these Fate counters. I almost get the feeling that zwet is making shit up on the fly for this game.

My vote's definitely still in the right place.

[tanstalas]

No idea about these Fate counters. I almost get the feeling that zwet is making shit up on the fly for this game.

My vote's definitely still in the right place.

No it isn't - it's still on me

[Fate]

Oh hi scum, so glad you could join us.

Pacman was a VI yesterday, so the REAL reason you aren't voting him is because Zang is more popular today for wagons.

AMIRTITE OR AMIRTIRWEEEEEEEEEEEE

[tanstalas]

Oh hi scum, so glad you could join us.

Pacman was a VI yesterday, so the REAL reason you aren't voting him is because Zang is more popular today for wagons.

AMIRTITE OR AMIRTIRWEEEEEEEEEEEE

Oh hai!

Glad you aren't paying attention to why I voted for him, love how scum never really pay attention to thread posts, and just skim, makes it easier to catch you.

When I find out what this "Fate Counter" is, trust me, I'll be back to you

[Fate]

I read it, Yeah but you moved your vote to Zang instead of Pacman (presumably your 2nd choice for scum)

[tanstalas]

Ahh - k - I see where you are coming from now, it was just a vote off to see if it changed the counter, I just picked someone else in the list.

I am sure pacmac will get the noose today or tomorrow - though I am going to try my hardest to get a train on you, don't you worry.

I'm kinda wanting to leave pacman alone tonight to see if he is a vig/sk - I am still betting on him being an SK as I can't see him being a vig with the name Voldemort... though bastard mafia.. who knows... I also didn't like his over-the-top defensive stance where he started acting like you, by posting all in caps...

Speaking of which WTF, your last three posts only had one sentence all in caps

[Fate]

I don;t use caps unless I have a good reason. The main wagon is correctly on you, as such there is not much to yell about

[tanstalas]

I don;t use caps unless I have a good reason.

The main wagon is correctly on you

, as such there is not much to yell about

Really?

Your main reason for voting me was you said that CD's case on me was rock solid. Did you not read my rebuttle post?

I encourage everyone to read my post again http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 6#p2512526 and after you have read that again I'd suggest to take a closer look at the people on my wagon, as if I get lynched I *WILL* flip town.

Is there something you don't understand Fate - I answered all of his questions and your vote is still on me. Hey, if you want to follow math-fail boy that's your prerogative

[zwetschenwasser]

Fate Votes Counter is Still At 1, 9 to go.

[pacman281292]

I wasn't lynched. I was moddayvigged.
Also, answering pointless question is pointless, and annoying.
I tried to use one of my phrases a few posts ago, but it looks like either that mechanic was kept hidden, or that it didn't work at all. I hope the case is the first.

What was the phrase?

I was thinking you sent in a phrase that made it appear that you were mod dayvigged to avoid lynch.

First:

From now on, there is a rule that states that the lynched player's full PM is to be revealed (exceptuating, for example, scumbuddies' names, in order to make the new rule passable). So, any lynch will give you interesting results (like, my role will flip as I described, and CD and Zang will flip scum).
Enjoy!

And second: No. I have no idea on WTF happened.

[zwetschenwasser]

MOD SCENE
pacman281292 was happily strolling along. He came across an abandoned mine that promised the glories and powers of Minerva herself. He, of course, didn't know what he was dealing with, so he went along his merry way, a little bit more pressed for time.

Fate Count is 1, 9 to go.

[Zang]

I am thinking that convincing 5 people to sign this petition may be his win condition. It needs to be remembered that this is a bastard mod game and there is a chance that this win condition being fulfilled may end the game. Sorry, but in a bastard mod game I am not willing to take that risk.

And that's enough reasoning for you to vote for me? That's almost complete speculation. 

I wasn't lynched. I was moddayvigged.
Also, answering pointless question is pointless, and annoying.
I tried to use one of my phrases a few posts ago, but it looks like either that mechanic was kept hidden, or that it didn't work at all. I hope the case is the first.

How is my question pointless?  

Knowledge of who got the census should be enough for now so that if something freaky happens to one or most of them we can start to apply pressure at that junction.

I sent it to ZONEFACE, animorpherv1, Pomegranete, CooLDoG and brianj.

pacman is slight-town read if I had to choose between the two, just because I don't see much avenue of attack toward him besides that "another scumteam" comment thing. His behaviour after kill was pretty curious since posting after death is handsome mod-kill material (I read few past games here and I never saw case of someone - even trolls - breaching this rule), and possibly mean that pacman knew he was not really dead in the first place or he'll come back to life. His almost VI-ish accusation against his attackers then could possibly been attempt to gain town credit, but I am debunking this theory for now because I don't think mod will tolerate scum breaching the rule (temporarily but still) to establish his rating.

I think that pacman wasn't moddayvigged because the mod knew thar he would bring pacman back to life. This is why he gave the role as [REDACTED] instead of his actual role.
    

[vezokpiraka]

unvote vote Fate
unvote vote Zang

[CooLDoG]

@tans, I know about your theory, however you still imply the gambler's fallacy, re-read the whole wikipedea artical and shut the fuck up, plz respond to the other elements of my case... Ohh, and if we do lynch pacman and he flips scum, I would credit you with pussing him.

@rewq, I don'tthink the fate counter can signify scum left (9 scum in a 12 player game is impossible. Just think about they can out-vote us every time.). It could signify town left though.... Or just amount of vots that fate got....

@zwet, stop making shit up and let us play the fucking game with out having our minds constantly fucked, thanks.

@pacy, so you couldn't have target me or pom or zwit last night. Ok, I still think your scummy so my question is now invalid.... play as normal.

I woke up sooo damn late this morning that I couldn't post much sorry.

@vez, right befor I hit the reply button I saw your post, good idea! If the fate counter goes up 1 we know what its about.

[pacman281292]

Statement failed. Dammit.
@Zang: "Why would you assume that they were alone?" was your question. It's a rhetorical question. No need to answer.

[CooLDoG]

@zang, pom died, does that have anything to do with your census? From my isos, pom was townish, ani was slightly lurky slightly town, I am town (I claimed that, and I do read my own isos btw ), and brianj is also townish. Do all of these ring a bell? All seem to be ether slightly townish or lurky townish...

Stronger fos: zang

. Going into the slightly hypothetical... If pom excepted your pm and sent it to the mod, she then died and the fate counter went up by one (I currently don’t think the fate counter has anything to do with the player “Fate”) . If that is true then you are most likely some sorta weird sk type role... I would vote for you to get a wagon and a claim going, but I find tans much more scummy.

@tans: why did you vote pacman before if you think he is a vig/sk? You said in your first post of this day that he needs to die. Why the back-track???

[Zang]

Statement failed. Dammit.
@Zang: "Why would you assume that they were alone?" was your question. It's a rhetorical question. No need to answer.

It wasn't a rhetorical question. You said that they were on an independent scum team so you said you didn't know who the other scum team was. So I want to know why you assumed that.

@zang, pom died, does that have anything to do with your census?

Not that I'm aware of.

 Going into the slightly hypothetical... If pom excepted your pm and sent it to the mod, she then died and the fate counter went up by one (I currently don’t think the fate counter has anything to do with the player “Fate”) . If that is true then you are most likely some sorta weird sk type role... I would vote for you to get a wagon and a claim going, but I find tans much more scummy.

I picked 5 people, the chance that one of them is killed isnt that low. And it's only been 1 night.