Open 239 - C9++

[drmyshottyizsik]

that would be mylo sir

[AGar]

Hm, it would. Might as well be LYLO - Nham is confirmed.

Also, I'm a bit concerned that Ythill has been called "obvtown" by multiple players and that he has had oibvtown reads on others at the end of a day and yet they've never bitten the NK.

Fuck I need my laptop and internet.

[drmyshottyizsik]

I think ythil's our scum, but really we should no lynch today to narrow it down

[nhammen]

wrong! if we no lynch, the player that will be killed is me. I am confirmed town, so it might as well be LYLO. You only no lynch when there is no confirmed town.

[Ythill]

So now I'm no longer bleeding obvtownness? D'oh.

You and shotty were my two main town reads, so I definately need to rethink things. This is the begining of my weekend so I'll have time to reread the two of you and make a decision. I'd appreciate it if the rest of you would do the same.

I agree that we should lynch today rather than wait until tomorrow. No-lynch will not have its usual MYLO benefit of narrowing the pool, and lynching today will mean that at least two town players are required to hang someone, which should help keep the shenanigans to a minimum.

[Ythill]

I've done a

[Ythill]

LOL. Accidentally hit some key combination that submitted that post... anyway...

I've done a comparison of several key topics, analyzed the NKs, and read an iso of shotty. Still need to iso AGar but I have a dentist appointment in about an hour so I'm going to stop here and finish my analysis while spitting blood. Right now I am leaning heavily towards shotty as the SK but I will not be making a vote until I've looked at all the information and had the chance to go through my completed notes.

Nham should not vote until we are ready to lynch. I've never had a confirmed townie in MYLO before but I'm realizing that he can wait with the hammer to seriously limit the potential for scum shenanigans, making it impossible for the SK to quick-hammer anyone but himself.

[AGar]

Will post later tonight.

Frisbee, dodgeball, and fraternity recruitment activity until then!

[drmyshottyizsik]

vote no lynch

it's as easy at that for today. Stop disgussing you are just telling the mafia who's better to kill, vote no lynch

[Ythill]

1. There is no mafia left and you know this.
2. The SK already knows who to kill and it is the confirmed townie.
3. There is zero benefit to no-lynch for town but certain benefit for the SK.

I'm back from the dentist. Due to timing, I didn't get very much work done (one simple extraction instead of three surgical), so I am far-less drug addled than I thought I'd be. Will be finishing my analysis soon.

[drmyshottyizsik]

no ythil at this point sk is equal to scum, and if we mis-lynch then it's game over mylo =!= mislynch and lose. but if we no lynch we then narrow down our choices from 4 to 3 and town has a 8% better chance of winning

[Ythill]

We only have 2 choices. And I know SK==scum but you didn't say "scum," you said "mafia."

Stop distracting me, I'm trying to make sense of all this information.

[drmyshottyizsik]

no lynch is the best way to go right now. it gives the town a better chance at winning

[Ythill]

What We're Looking For

Finding the SK can be tricky because there's no connection evidence to exploit and they have reason to scumhunt as avidly as the town. However, the wincon is pretty extreme and, overall, a SK should be more concerned with survival than the average townie. The SK has inside information that may show when discussing the odd kills (NZ & N1). Due to set-up knowledge and the early scum kills, I think the most logical plays for the SK would have been scumhunting carefully and seeking town-cred D1, avoiding a mafia lynch D2, quietly lynching Fate D3, and choosing NKs that remove threats as much as possible with all the mason-confirmage going on. Note also that D1

scumhunting

should look townie but the D1

lynch choice

is not that important because he can use his kill to remove suspects.

NK Analysis

• On NZ, either the mafia killer was blocked, the mafia target was doc protected, or the SK hit Fate. I think the second possibility is more likley, since Reck, NS, and Fate are all players likely to target me with doc protects and mafia kills. However, the third possibility should be kept in mind because a SK who missed a kill on Fate should have suspected heavily that he was mafia (see below).
  
• N1 we know that the SK killed Andrius. There are many reasons he might have been killed: he was suspected at least mildly by both AGar and shotty, had dropped PR breadcrumbs, and was mildly suspicious of shotty. So many reasons that I'm not going to try to deduce anything from this kill.
  
  
• My assumption is that scum crosskilled (or whatever you call it) on Maf N2. We know the SK killed Fishy N3. This is important in that nham was not selected for the kill by the SK two nights in a row even though he seems to be the more lucid of the choices both nights. No chance he's a PR other than mason. AGar was high on his town list. He was moderately suspicious that Shotty was mafia but thought he couldn't be SK. In comparison, both Fishy and Maf were more suspicious of shotty than nham was, neither of them suspected AGar substantially around the time of their death.

NK analysis suggests that shotty is the SK.

Subject Comparison

• Reaction to NZ:
  The SK knew that a kill was missed on NZ. AGar was heavily opposed to NZ kill speculation and spoke out against it on at least three separate occasions, including #93 where he felt the need to argue for a single N1 kill. Shotty, otoh, lurked through the early game and pointedly ignored all NZ speculation. Either reaction could be SK, AGar looks
  a little
  more suspicious than shotty here.
  
• D1 Wagoning:
  AGar spent the early day bandwagoning "for info" but was often a late vote on those BWs (L-2 or later on NS, Maf, and shotty; never earlier than third on anyone). He moved his vote a lot which is good for the town but could have been ambivalence, especially since he never really pushed on anyone after he gave up on the shotty lynch. Shotty came in hard @ L-1 on Maf, like he wanted the day to end. He got in trouble for it and backed way off, placing his next two votes on non-wagons. Then he put Andrius @ L-1, asked for a VC, and stayed parked there. Interestingly, AGar also backed off the big wagons after shotty got in trouble for it. Both of them look dirty here.
  
• Reaction to D2 Double-kill:
  This is a repeat of the D1 start. AGar made an opening post (#438) that utilized the flips to gain solid set-up information, and felt the need to add opinion qualifiers (awesome, not-so-awesome) in a manner that feels disingenuine. Meanwhile, shotty came in late and jumped into the middle of an argument as if he didn't get the memo about people having been killed at all. AGar's tone isn't quite as bad as it was during his reaction to NZ. Shotty repeating the see-no-evil act makes it seem even more suspicious.
  
• D2 Preference for Mislynch:
  AGar came in hard against Unsight, briefly entertained the lynch of his second suspect, Fishy, and then lynched Unsight. He didn't mess around or entertain other theories. Shotty called me his top suspect but wanted to lynch Fishy, then he briefly joined me in attacking Fate before making a bit attack post against me and voting me. Though he'd listed four suspects by then (myself, Fishy, Fate, and AGar) he "accidentally" hammered non-suspect Unsight to end the day. Note also that
  if the SK targeted Fate N0
  then he would have likley sided with Fate D2, just like shotty did.

Overall, the subject comparison points to shotty as SK.

Comparative Isos

• AGar:
  Really, the only things I don't like about AGar's play (except what has already been mentioned), are his D1 twilight attack on Fishy and the masons (which seemed too calculating and open-ended to be town), and the way he favored the lynch of Unsight (likley SK) over Fishy (likley mafia) on D2.
  
• Shotty:
  Different story here. We've got his early VT claim and nervous defense on D1, the way he changed his wagoning behavior (and offered to change his playstyle) in response to a wagon on him, and the fact that he seemed willing to lynch outside his top three without much provocation.
  
  D2 started with him claiming "not SK" (#476) specifically even though he was also being called mafia. This was followed by a three-post burst (484, 486, & 488) during which he explicitly doubted the existence of the SK and wished he'd been aware of it sooner, all while ignoring the two NKs and the discussion people had posted confirming the existence of a SK; altogether it seems contrived.
  
  Perhaps the most telling moment appears in #522, where shotty attacked me aggresively, voteed for me, and placed a FoS on AGar. What's odd about this is that shotty's suspects were explicitly myself, Fishy, and Fate and the last thing AGar had done before this read change was agree to form a voting bloc with me. Scum don't like town blocs and shotty's reaction seems like a knee-jerk response to being excluded from both.
  
  I also don't like shotty's behavior at the end od D2. He set up the "accidental" hammer with preemptive excuses and followed it with some crap about being NKed which only makes sense if he was trying to seem townie, then he acted overly defensive towards Unsight. His insistance that we no-lynch today though it clearly favors the SK is another point against him.

Comparative isos suggest very heavily that shotty is the SK.

VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

[AGar]

no lynch is the best way to go right now. it gives the town a better chance at winning

No, it doesn't. Here's the math.

Nhammen is 100% confirmed town.
Our odds of lynching the SK today are 33%.
If we vote to no-lynch, Nhammen dies tonight.
Our odds of lynching the SK tomorrow are 33% again.

The no-lynch push is really just not right in my eyes. I'm really wondering if drmy just has nothing to go with and is looking for the time to build something.

Because I can't see Ythill-anti-town.

Nhamm, what are your reads?

4 should be three to lynch, and SK self-hammering does no good to them.

VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

[Ythill]

I endorse this product and/or service, though I think we should give shotty the chance to respond before he's hammered.

@AGar:

Did you look back through the thread or are you working from memory? I agree with your conclusion but I'm not sure I like the speed with which you reached it.

[drmyshottyizsik]

ok well since ythill's sk game over

vote shotty

[Ythill]

WTF? Why would you do that?

I'm town. If you are too, then you just handed AGar te game. Nice job.

[Andrius]

[Fate]

Can I post yet?

>_>b (GJ SK, you're lucky no one listens to scum post death)

[Andrius]

Whatever. Scum lost, and so yeah.

I failed you, Darth Fate.
But NS failed WAY WORSE. XD

[Fate]

Nah I failed you all...

I coulda won solo but YTHAN TOOK AWAY MY

Ythill

SK LYNCH FAKECLAIM.

GOD DAMN FIXED SETUPS

[Nobody Special]

I am ashamed.

[Ythan]

Yeah pretty much. Sorry my modding kind of fell apart, school came back and then I fucked up that flip. Thanks for sticking it out with me guys. I'll post modinfo when I get on my own computer.

[Ythill]

Happy dance, happy dance. First third party win, wooooooot!

Some explainations... I was convinced nhamman and Mafuyu were mafia because my NZ kill on nhammen (sorry dude, you're too smart) didn't go through. The chances of a double-doc, or double RB seemed slim so I figured he was the GF and then I saw him buddying up with Maf and... well... you get the rest. I killed Andrius defensively because he dropped vig breadcrumbs and I really was shocked at his cardflip.

I became absolutely certain Fate was the GF on D2 and purposely avoided lynching him. Still kind of amazed that I managed to redirect my suspicion to Unsight without getting in trouble. On N2 I submitted a no-kill after sketching out possible endgames and finding more victory scenarios if I retained the option for a final four. One of those was a 2:1:1 where I thought the optimal strategy would be to claim SK, inform the town that they can no longer win, and then try to talk them into helping me lynch Fate rather than playing for the draw. I killed Fishy rather than nhammen on N3 both because nham thought I was obv-town and because it helped set up my d4 case against shotty.

Shotty was groomed by me pretty much from D1 to be the endgame mislynch. Some of my riskiest plays were made while defending him and chainsawing his attackers. There was a while there when I became convinced that Fate was going to figure out what I was doing and NK shotty just to mess up my plans. Good thing we had masons.

@Ythan:

Don't be too hard on yourself. It wasn't bad for your first time. The cardflip thing was lame but not game-breaking. I would have appreciated quicker nights and regular updates in the OP, but I definately enjoyed the game.

@Fate:

You, sir, are a whiner. You and I were in the exact same boat. Alone, aware of the others' identity but unable to NK him, and with our asses hanging out because of that flip. It put both of us at a disadvantge to the town but gave neither of us the advantage over one-another. How is it that you quit while claiming it was impossible to win and yet I won? I like playing with you man, but that seriously sucked. Mainly because I was looking forward to squaring off with you but also because I felt sorry for your buddies watching from the sidelines.