/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Patrick]

Votecount

mith (2) -- Kmd4390, Seraphim
VasudeVa (1) -- SpyreX

Not voting: Everyone else
14 alive, 8 to lynch.

Deadline: 28th of September, 9:20 pm, GMT.

[Ellibereth]

V/A 3 DAYS. PROXY VOTE TO KMD

[Kmd4390]

Yeah, I wasn't blocked.

[Seraphim]

HOLY SHIT I'M A DOUBLE VOTER NOW. 8D This is like the greatest day ever, I didn't know this was in the mechanics! Now I can vote for VasudeVa AND mith at the same time!

Mod: I think SpyreX, not Seraphim, is the singular person voting VasudeVa

Dunno what you mean - mod

[VasudeVa]

Vote: SpyreX

Die Spy Die!

[mith]

Sigh. This computer has a mouse with side buttons which apparently mean "go to the previous page and wipe out everything you typed".

Kmd: Do you have any further reasons for voting me? If so, please elaborate so I can provide some sort of defense. If not, go read 1170. At the moment, I am in the unfortunate and frustrating position of having a confirmed innocent going after me for a weak (and completely debunked) reason, and while you are dead wrong you are probably going to get some wagon support simply on the basis that you are innocent. Given that, I'd like to convince you of my innocence, but that's hard to do if you've stopped responding to logic.

(WIFOM applies as always, but reasons I'm not scum include: There was a Vigilante in this game, and scum-mith would never ever have let his scumteam give the town a Vigilante; scum-mith would not have pointed out that the wagon on said Vigilante was a bad idea, since he was testable - perhaps someone else would have pointed this out, but perhaps not, and one never turns down the possibility of a free lynch on a power role; and, there would have been

no

reason for scum-mith to want any part of a town-zoraster wagon, particularly given that zoraster's top suspect was mith's top suspect, and said top suspect, DGB, was the instigator of the zoraster wagon... scum-mith would perhaps have pointed out that ignorance was a null-tell so as not to lose wagon momentum, but otherwise would have kept his hands clean.

Oh, and mith+DGB in particular is one of the most inane theories I have ever come across. I thought DGB was supposed to be the crazy paranoid one.)

Seraphim: Same question as Kmd (with the addition of: see 1197 for further debunking). Also, answer the question asked there: What are your thoughts on DGB?

My vote goes to DGB, obviously. She started yesterday as my top suspect, and made what appears to be an opportunistic jump to me. Additionally, the possible slip I mentioned carries more weight now that we know Elmo is town. [As a reminder, in post 1041, DGB says (in response to a question about how she would play this game as scum) "First of all, you'd be dead, not tajo.", at a point in the game where she shouldn't be certain tajo was the scumkill (that is, Elmo could have been scum, and the real Vig killed tajo).]

(The possible slip on Seraphim no longer applies - and actually makes me suspect him slightly less, in that it would have to be unusually subtle play for scum to put something in like that. The comment in question was in 1139, where he says: "Maybe I should look elsewhere and let the vig handle things." Had Elmo turned up scum, my thinking is that town-Seraphim shouldn't expect the Vig to be able to handle anything, because the Vig might be Elmo, who is known and blockable; on the other hand, if Seraphim were scum and knew Elmo was his buddy, he would know there is a real Vig out there operating unblocked, who could potentially "handle things" after taking care of Elmoscum.)

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

[iamausername]

Nearly done with my full-on catch up post, just Vas and Troll/Adumbro left to scrutinise, but I've got to leave for work. I'll finish up when I get back and share the fruits of my labour with you, but for now, have some pretty colours.

Hoopla

(11) --

Papa Zito, Amished

, mith, Plumegranate,

Elmo

, Seraphim, DrippingGoofball, Rhinox,

Kmd4390

, SpyreX,

Hoopla

VasudeVa (1) --

populartajo

zoraster

(2) -- ooba, VasudeVa

Papa Zito

(1) -- Zorblag

Kmd4390

(2) --

Herodotus

, ekiM
DrippingGoofball (1) --

zoraster

Not Voting: SaintKerrigan, Ellibereth

VasudeVa (2) -- ooba, AdumbroDeus
ooba (1) --

iamausername

DrippingGoofball (1) --

zoraster

Seraphim (1) -- My Milked Eek

zoraster

(9) -- ekiM, Plumegranate, Rhinox, SpyreX, DrippingGoofball,

Kmd4390

,

Elmo

, mith,

Herodotus

mith (1) -- VasudeVa

Not voting: Ellibereth, Seraphim

Ellibereth ended both days with no vote out there. This is Not Good.

Also,
D1:

mith

,

Palumporom

, Seraph,

DGB

,

Rhinox

,

Spyrex

D2: ekiM,

Palumporom

,

Rhinox

,

Spyrex

,

DGB

,

mith

Bound to be at least one scum in the bolded, probably two. SPOILER ALERT: It's DGB and Rhinox.

VOTE: Ellibereth

[My Milked Eek]

Catching up in two large games of the same size >_>
I'm nearly finished with this one (+-10 pages left), but the other one is this [ ] close to deadline and I read only half of it. Giving that one priority until night hits there.

Until then,

Vote: mith

. I may not have any tangible reasons for my vote (well I don't really), but all I know is that he has been pinging my gut ever since this game started, mainly because I feel the tone in his posts is really artificial and forced. Either that or I'm imagining things and it's his playstyle (if so, sorry).

[Kmd4390]

Mith, I'll go back to that post when I get to a computer. Might be a few days.

The fact that we had a vig does nothing for my opinion of you.

As far as pointing out the way to play with the me/elmo thing, that does nothing either. Its not hard as scum to get involved in planning how to use power roles and still do it the same way you would as town, especially when all you really plan is one player NOT to be lynched.

You already know my take on the zoraster vote.

-------

Dgb is tomorrow's lynch.

[iamausername]

I sympathise with my predecessor's lack of interest in the D0 discussion, because it is pretty impenetrable, and if I were scum here, I'd probably just argue my real opinions about which scum roles were best for town, so I think trying to figure out alignments based on those arguments is pretty futile. So forgive me if I overlook something significant in that phase.

(Zito did some really dumb stuff later on that made me facepalm, however)

DrippingGoofball

Post #286 - DGB's infamous gambit. Her explanation of what exactly she was looking for reaction-wise makes sense to me, and I don't particularly see what she'd get out of doing this as scum. I know most people, even those who think DGB is town, have decried this gambit as anti-town, but I'm not sure I agree. In the long run, I think the decision of which power roles we gave to scum will have an absolutely miniscule effect on the outcome of the game, considering that in all possible scenarios, we would know what we were dealing with, so I'm wildly indifferent to the fact that DGB unintentionally caused the janitor selection, and I think there is genuinely useful information to be gleaned from the reactions she generated.

Post #346: Concerned about this. Not because there's anything wrong with the post itself - she's right that zor's attitude here is anti-town at best - but because it doesn't stack up at all with Post #296, where Rhinox makes essentially the same post as zor, and DGB has no such negative reaction.

Post #526 & #527: Huge cognitive dissonance in DGB suggesting that zor is a tunneling townie being exploited while continuing to vote zor, and apparently never wavering in her insistence that he is scum.

Post #695: I don't like this vote, because there was still an equal chance of a zor wagon taking off at this point, which according to Post #606 would be a dream come true for DGB. (This post, note, comes AFTER the above "exploited townie" posts). There is nothing natural about this shift in opinion on zor.

Post #761: Wait what? This is the same tajo and Amished who were exploiting a tunneling townie (who was actually obvscum, until he wasn't). Like, I know DGB has a reputation for being incomprehensible, but seriously... what?

Besides continuing the impressive lack of natural progression in her reads, there is no reason I can think of for town to make this post.

Post #879: But of course, if Vas is town, he would still an irresistable target for scum votes, no? This post bothers me, because it seems like it is designed to subtly implant the idea in everyone's minds that not voting Vas is a town tell, without having to sully herself with actually defending him. That seems like a much better position for a partner of Vas to be in than either bussing OR defending her buddy.

Post #904: Compare and contrast with Post #826. There's a world of difference between "Elmo is town" and "Lynching Elmo is a bad play regardless of his alignment", which would be my respective interpretations of "I got my Elmo love back" and "mith is right" here.

Post #962: Seraph's scenario is absurd, no doubt. I'm not seeing how that equates to Seraphscum though. I mean, it's clearly born of frustration more than anything else - it's so obviously implausible that I can't see Seraph cooking it up and expecting it to convince anyone without being blinded by his frustration at the resistance to Vas being lynch. And in my experience it's far more likely that that frustration would stem from town who thinks they've caught scum than from scum who just can't get that mislynch going. Because there's always plenty of other mislynches around, but there's rarely an overabundance of obvscum.

Post #1161: Compare and contrast with Post #1060. If the ignorance is clearly not fake, then what makes it so scummy that votes need no further explanation?

Post #1180: Yeah, so, this and her inexplicable hop on the Hoopla wagon remind me powerfully of roflcopter's scum play in the last /in-vitational I played - pick a scummy-looking townie, push against them whenever the opportunity arises, but always find a convenient excuse to lynch someone else by the end of the day so you still have that scummy-looking townie to fall back on. rofl did it with Kmd there, and I'm pretty sure DGB tried to do it with zor here.

ekiM

Post #602: OK, his unvote on Hoopla gives me good vibes. I think scum-ekiM would have had no trouble coasting on that one at the time, and his reasoning feels genuine.

Post #603: This would be a much more worthwhile question if tajo had been town in that game, I think, but I like where he's coming from nonetheless.

Post #850: Yes yes yes. This is righteous :goodposting:.

Post #1110: Huh. I would definitely like to see further elaboration on what exactly DGB said that made sense and changed your mind, ekiM.

I would also like further elaboration of ekiM opinions in general, actually, because he's looking pretty under the radar so far. Decidedly lacking in commentary on players who haven't been major wagons.

Ellibereth

Post #33: Heh, me too. Though they couldn't give more than two of the same role, so it couldn't happen.

Post #458: This is both true and not something scumElli would have a lot of motivation to point out.

Post #702: Hmm. At first this struck me as obviously town, because I figured that since scum used the Janitor, they obviously hadn't picked up on Hoopla's intentions, so when Elli recognises that Hoopla is delberately drawing the lynch, logically, this must come from town. But then I wonder if this might actually be a pretty likely post from scum who DID pick up on Hoopla's breadcrumb, but didn't realise that the town would find it so convincing. He is, after all, espousing the idea that scum would want to sacrifice a member just to cause a little confusion here, which means it must not have occured to him how ridiculous that is. Also noting that he's been eerily silent on the matter since Hoopla made her big reveal.

Post #752: Does anybody know why Elli was voting ekiM for most of D2? Does anyone remember him making any attempt to actually get this lynch to happen?

Post #912: Really, with how frequently Elli keeps on bringing up tajo's suspicions, I am finding it hard not to suspect that he made that kill so that he could pursue this line of thought. It's like the only thing he talks about on D2.

Post #956: Oh, besides randomly declaring Vas to be town, even though he was on tajo's shortlist. Whut.

Post #1227: Strongly dislike this "I bet zor is town" after doing shit all to prevent his lynch. It's just tacky.

Basically, everyone who is getting on Vas's case for being worthless should take the time to read Elli in iso and see if you like what you find there. His D2 play was appalling.

Kmd4390

Confirmed tracker, not going to waste my time analysing his posts.

mith

Post #430: The fact that he argues against the popular case against one of his top suspects is a point in mith's favour, I think. If we was looking for a mislynch here, that would be a pretty counterintuitive move.

Post #690: I thoroughly enjoy the browbeating here. I don't think it's particularly indicative of alignment, but I do enjoy it.

Post #754: This super town read on Hero, and particularly the fact that it contradicts #744 where mith agrees with Hoopla's suspicion on Hero, definitely seems more likely to come from town mith to me.

Yeah, there's nothing scummy here. mith is a damn good player, I know, but I think if he was scum there'd be something somewhere that felt off, even something I could put my finger on, and there just isn't.

My Milked Eek/Saint Kerrigan/My Milked Eek

Post #451: I really don't see scum making this post. If this is feigned ignorance, then I have to say that MME is an impressive actor.

Post #861: The thoughts on Seraphim here just strike me as genuine.

Post #941: And the further elaboration here, too. I'm not sure I find the case convincing, but I sure as hell believe that Kerrigan does.

That's all. I hope MME gets his head in the game soon (or out of entirely to be replaced by someone else who can get their head in the game), because he's clearly town, but he's really not doing a lot to help as of yet.

ooba

Post #866: I like his point about Vas not following up on his questions a lot.

Post #1236: This is odd, because I really don't see mith/DGB as bussing. DGB is scum, sure. mith is scum, well, if you're having the same failure of comprehension as Kmd I can see how you might think this. But the two of them together? Not seeing it.

I... really don't have a lot to say about ooba. There's nothing much that sticks out either way to me. I think he's likely town, because there's enough genuinely scummy players out there to make a full scum team and then some, but it would be nice to have something that really cemented that read.

Plumegranate

Post #668: Lotta good stuff in here. Denying the zor 'slip' is good times, the rambling second paragraph looks like a genuine thought process to me, this sentence here: "Not sure yet how to tell when shameless self-declared sheeping is a scumtell, though." also strikes me as powerfully town.

Post #734: Liking her point on ekiM here.

Post #834: The particular wording of "Vig shoots Elmo tonight is obv the best plan." seems highly unlikely to come from scum, who would know that Elmo was vig.

Post #922: First paragraph here is another bit that reads as highly genuine to me.

So yeah, on the whole, I would be very very surprised if Palumporom here turned out to be scum. Strongest town read (besides Kmd, obv).

Rhinox

Post #293: Pretty damn horrible. Both the idea in itself and the wording of this post are super scummy to me. "I'm just going to tunnel on you until one of us is dead

based on the idea

that this was a scum gambit designed to influence which roles the town gave to scum." That's not the way that someone who actually believed in what he was saying would word that post, I don't think.

Post #649: Yeesh, to all of this. Yeah, you didn't say tajo's list was random, you said it was no better than random. Spyrex points out exactly why this is scummy and just gets a meaningless buzzword in response.

"I'm not seeing why zoraster is earning votes, but maybe I've missed that part of the thread." - Wouldn't your first instinct as a townie, faced with someone receiving a significant number of votes that you don't understand, be to maybe try to find out a reason for those votes? Maybe read the part of the thread that you somehow missed, maybe ask the voters for their reasons? Not so Rhinox, he seems to be content to just let it be.

Post #682: "The misrep is that you are arguing that I'm trying to discredit tajo's list by comparing it to a list of 6 random names."

Yeah, I mean that's totally not wh-

"I don't know if you meant this as a joke or serious, but you realize that mathematically, if you pick any random 6 people in a 20 player game in which there are 4 scum, there is an 80% chance that at least 1 of those 6 players are scum.

Unless you feel being prodded is a scum tell, you might as well have picked 6 names at random.

"

OK, but maybe-

"ok Spy, humor me then. Why is Tajo's list better than a list of 6 random names?"

Yeah, no. I got nothing.

Post #842: Wooow, this reaction to Hero's "I saw Hoop's breadcrumb" post is just awful. Like seriously, "I think you're town for now, but thats what scum you wants me to think, right?" Why would you ever say this as town?

Post #880: Imagine for a moment that you are Rhinox, and you are scum with DGB and Vas. Would you be able to resist making this post?

Post #929: Given that the answer to "what changed?" is both obvious, and stated clearly in the post where ooba voted Vas, this is a pretty horrible excuse for a wagon.

Post #1000: Is that an "ooba is scum no matter what Vas flips" post? I think it is. Oh boy.

Post #1046: This 'circumstantial evidence' business gives me the shivers. It's real "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" stuff, he's downplaying the importance of the argument a lot, trying to put it beyond scrutiny by saying that it's just a curiosity that he'll be "interested to see if it's valid in the postgame", but he never actually gets to the point of saying that it's not valid.

Slicey/Seraphim

Post #568: That's not what an appeal to emotion is, Seraphim.

Post #692: This post gives me a bad feeling. Overexplaining yourself in this way is a symptom of scum being overly concerned about appearing consistent.

Post #730: This also does not feel like a town reaction to Hoopla's revelation. He doesn't seem surprised to learn that Hoopla had some kind of cunning plan going on so much as he seems relieved to have an answer to the puzzle of what Hoopla's cunning plan is.

Post #938: Seraph finally stops tunneling on Vas for a second to discuss other scum. What exactly makes the idea of a DGB/Vas/Rhinox team ridiculous? The fact that they're being too obvious about it? I invite you to take a look at the scum play in /in-vitational 4.

Post #950: I was liking this post a lot until I get to the end. "I don't see how you've proven that I'm scum."?? Well, no shit. You don't make cases to empirically

prove

that someone is scum, and you also don't make cases expecting to convince the person you are making the case against. This just seems like an incredibly weird thing for a townie to say.

Post #953: No, what? "You have done X, Y and Z scummy actions, therefore I think you're scum" "But you haven't connected those actions!!" The connection is that they are all scummy, ergo you are scum. I mean, this is really basic stuff, isn't it? It's not just me?

Post #963: Oh hey, Seraphim can actually react to things in a way that seems genuine. Good to know.

Post #967: This is really lame dirt-flinging. If you wanted to pursue that as a point against DGB, you'd have done it D1.

Post #1196: I do believe that Seraph is having the same failure of comprehension as Kmd on this one. Unlike with DGB, I think that by the he made this vote, it was clear that the supposed slip from mith wasn't going to draw in enough townies to be worth exploiting for scum, so I don't think Seraphscum would have any reason to feign this misunderstanding.

SpyreX

Post #545: Liking any and all parts of this post. Well, the parts that I understand, anyway. I've got no idea what the color coded vote counts are about or how they make Zito town. I don't have a problem with that conclusion, obviously, I just have no idea where it came from.

Post #562: Oh, OK. That makes sense.

Yeah, Spy's town. I'm not going to bother pointing out every individual post that makes me think this, but basically anyone who pursues Rhinox with this much vigour despite a whole lot of indifference gets in my good books. He loses track of this when Vas earns his ire, but that's totally understandable, because Vas is playing like he has been mechanically engineered to earn SpyreX's ire.

VasudeVa

Post #81: For once I'm not going to skip past the D0 stuff, because I want everyone to take a look at the well reasoned and articulate posts he made in that phase and see how well it fits in with the LOL VI behaviour he's been displaying since... well, since people started calling him a VI. This is strong evidence to suggest that mith is totally on the money on this one, I think.

Post #414: And again, even in the early parts of D1, Vas was really not playing to the meta that he'd later be excused with.

Post #553: I'm impressed with the incredible vagueness of this accusation.

Post #576: I'm also impressed with the ridiculous hair splitting here. "I'm not talking about you, I'm talking about

your case

!" WTF is the difference?

Post #579: This post I actually like. I think that would be a very reasonable theory for someone who was convinced that Hoopla was scum to come out with.

Post #626: This I agree with too. Even if Vas is scum, I don't think it's likely that his behaviour stems from scumbuddy coaching. It seems pretty clear to me that this is a concious choice that Vas has made by himself, while his hypothetical scumbuddies shrugged and let him get on with it since it seems to be working for him. I think the whole coaching thing is a pretty big red herring.

Post #676: And then Vas pisses the goodwill away by coming out with an even more ridiculous theory about coaching. Short of literally writing your posts for you, which I can't imagine anyone being willing to do or have done for them, there's really a pretty negligible amount that coaching could actually do to help you avoid being wagoned.

Post #801: So here are all those questions that Vas never bothers to follow up on, thus indicating that he doesn't actually care about the answers. Well spotted, ooba.

Post #836: This post contains a tacit admission that Vas was not trying to be useful before, which belies his repeated cries of "But I AM scumhunting!"

Post #927: This post throws me off. I do believe that Vas is telling the truth when he says that he'd thought of Palumporom's point about the potential for viging before, but didn't want to bring it up himself because it would get shot down with WIFOM bullshit. That reads as genuine for sure. In itself, that's not alignment indicative, because Vas would have just as much interest in seeing that point raised taken seriously regardless of his alignment. BUT: if scumVas wanted someone else to present that thought, he has an obvious avenue to affect that, and given all the 'coaching' and 'daytalking' posts he made earlier, I struggle to believe that he wouldn't think of that avenue. And I really don't think Palumporom is his scumbuddy. Hmm.

Zorblag/AdumbroDeus

Post #440: iam finds it bothersome that Troll concludes that he no would have problem with a DGB lynch and indeed votes for DGB at the end of this post even though Troll clearly states the he no has problem seeing DGB pulling her gambit as town, and he no has any other points against her that aren't related to her gambit.

Post #482: iam also finds it bothersome that Troll seems to no be against any of the wagons that were going on on D1. It look like Troll be hedging his bets to iam.

---

A SPECTRUM

Kmd

Palumporom
MME

SpyreX
mith
ooba

ekiM
Adumbro
Vas
Seraphim

Elli

DGB
Rhinox

But also; DGB/Rhinox pairing is so strong that a town flip on one would probably cause a drastic change of opinion on the other. And a scum flip from both would move Vas right to the bottom of the list. Seraphscum is mutually exclusive with both Vas and DGB scum (and so pretty much Rhinox scum too, by extension).

VOTE: Rhinox

[SpyreX]

I've missed you IAUN and your ability to be awesome AND in that perfect awesome way.

I'm a little surprised to see ekiM that low, actually. And maybe its shared hate dissonance but I'd have Sera in that nasty grolive color. And MME's jump this page I don't like at all under the 2scum4scum (see: VV gambit) guise.

I still prefer VV independently by a margin and could use that to clean up a few things on the flipside but I sure wont oppose Rhinox or DGB. Definitely over mith.

[ooba]

Reading the game ..

[DrippingGoofball]

Sorry, RL stuff needs taken care of, I'll try to get a wagon analysis going in the next few days. waaaiit 4 meeeee!

[Rhinox]

Sorry guys, forgot this day had started.

Starting from my reads yesterday, removing the dead, and relabeling into more descriptive reads...

Town

KMD
VV

Leaning Town

DGB
Adumbro

unsure

mith
ekiM
seraph
ooba
Plum
iam
MME

Leaning Scum

Ellibereth
Spyrex

Definitely Scum

{TBD}

----------------------------------

With that out of the way, thoughts on the day so far.

1) still not convinced of mith-scum. I feel the reason the wagon started was weak, but mith didn't do himself any favors the way he was responding. I'm not opposed to the lynch, but I'm not prepared to vote for it yet and will look for better choices and better reasons.

2) Yesterday, mith asked me:

Rhinox: Remembered on ISOing your post to look for previous comments on DGB that I've already asked you something similar. So, to rephrase: Do you feel her recent vote for me (based on Kmd's reasoning, which you call "weak") and then switch back to zoraster (after "So now I'm thinking you must be scum, and zoraster town." in the previous post) reflects actual scumhunting?

I think that if DGB thought you had made a scum slip as KMD pointed out, then the jump to you from zoraster was logical. I don't really get the whole "I was thinking it before KMD pointed it out" part and it doesn't quite feel genuine there. The switch back to zoraster... meh... it was 36hrs to deadline and I can only guess that DGB felt that your lynch could not happen yesterday. Given that DGB spent a good many posts suspecting zoraster before the detour to you, its not like she just abandoned her top suspect to vote the biggest wagon on a player she didn't suspect - she still suspected zoraster. I have more problems with your switch from DGB, to zoraster, back to DGB, and then back to zoraster.

3) Throwing out a thought - KMD not blocked equals second vig? No need to discuss in detail as even though scum already know the answer, the discussion could provide clues to identify. Just thought it was worth mentioning to keep in consideration.

4) Elli 1251 really seems like scum buddying up to confirmed town.

5) Good point in favor of mith-town:

scum-mith would not have pointed out that the wagon on said Vigilante was a bad idea, since he was testable - perhaps someone else would have pointed this out, but perhaps not, and one never turns down the possibility of a free lynch on a power role

The rest of the reasons mith gave in #1255 aren't really valid reasons.

6)

Mith+DGB are scum if zora flips town ..

Still support this? I hope?

I would really like to hear some reasons, especially from ooba, why it is in any way likely that mith and DGB are both scum together.

7) iams post #1259 - gonna respond to it in a separate post to avoid an unreadable wall of text post.

[mith]

Kmd: I suspect

anything I say

will do nothing for your opinion of me, because your opinion of me is irrational and inexplicably set in stone.

That said, I will carry on trying. (I'll drop the Vig argument - it's actually the one that I feel most strongly about, it's something I would never do as scum, but it's also the least verifiable.)

Re: The "Don't Lynch Elmo" argument. Obviously scum

can

play as they would as town (thus the WIFOM disclaimer). In this case, I wasn't "getting involved in planning", I was initiating a discussion which prevented

a provable town power role

from being lynched, in a situation where that discussion not taking place would have resulted in a mislynch where the scumteam could hardly be blamed. (The weakness of this particular reason is that it's certainly possible scum-mith might have expected someone else to come up with that plan and decided to present it first for town-points, but given the initial reaction to the plan - see, for example, SpyreX's post - and your certainty at the time that Elmo was scum, I think as scum I would have at least waited until Elmo claimed to see whether an easy lynch was on the table).

Re: The zoraster vote. No, I don't know your take on the zoraster vote, not as it relates to this point. What you said was: "I think you wanted to jump the wagon and felt the need to add a reason you didn't actually believe. Why? Not sure."

[Your speculation which follows is ridiculous (there were no other wagons of note at the time, and the zoraster wagon didn't need momentum), no longer applicable (he came up town), and far-fetched at best (nothing about his posting suggested he was a power role - he was clearly either scum-giving-up or vanilla knowing he wasn't going to be saved by a claim - and in fact when I asked him to claim I had it in mind that if he claimed a power role I would take that as pretty convincing evidence of his being scum).]

So, enlighten me. Why would scum-mith jump on the wagon of a townie for what you suggest are insincere reasons? What would scum-mith have to gain from that, when he could easily express indignation at the lack of attention zoraster was giving the game and otherwise happily watch the lynch of a townie while keeping his vote on DGB to set up the next day's lynch? It makes no sense as a scum play, but it makes perfect sense from a town-mith perspective of "zoraster has been acting suspicious, and his catchup post is entirely unsatisfactory, time to lynch him and get on with things".

Anyway. While you're reading 1170, read Herodotus' 1183, Elmo's 1199, and iamausername's recent catchup post. If you won't listen to me, listen to them - two of them are confirmed innocent, free of any possibility that they might be lying about their take on me. I can't help but feel that you are too caught up in the

possibility

that you might have caught the site owner as scum that you aren't actually considering the evidence to the contrary.

---

My Milked Eek: I am a mathematician, spend a significant amount of my time reading/writing/editing scientific papers, and spend much of my time on site speaking in admin-voice. Someone finding my tone "artificial" doesn't surprise me. (So, meh to the vote, but it strikes more as lazy than opportunistic. Really need to see more from MME.)

---

Agree with Rhinox's point 3 that a second Vig remains a possibility, and that Kmd unblocked lends weight to that possibility, and that we shouldn't discuss this in detail - if we have a second Vig, we will likely know it for certain tonight.

One small point in DGB's favor that came to mind as I was trying to fall asleep last night is that if she were scum, one would think scum would have blocked Elmo rather than letting him get a kill off. If there's a second Vig, this point goes away (they could have blocked Elmo and killed either Elmo or Herodotus, while the Vig killed the other - depending on what happened night 1), but if Elmo was the only Vig the only other possibility that makes sense to me is that scum might have looked at Elmo's reasoning for the Amished kill and decided he was unlikely to target his (public) top suspect.

Not sure how strongly I feel about this point at the moment, but not enough to make me move my vote.

[Kmd4390]

Mith, well I could see you wanting zoraster lynched if vas is your scumbuddy or if zoraster's suspicions about scumdgb were accurate. There are plenty of reasons why you'd want zoraster lynched. Its hard to say though because you play differently than I do. When I'm scum, I push the scummier player and try to make myself look good and genuine in the process. You seem to be looking deeper than that and its hard for me to understand specifics in your logic. I saw what I saw and that was you giving a reason why zoraster is town, disposing of that reason for something extremely weak, and putting zoraster at L-1 and demanding a claim.

Also, ignoring the appeal to authority. That shit doesn't work on me.

[Rhinox]

This post will be addressing iam's #1259, with some of my thoughts thrown in when appropriate:


DGB section: nothing to comment on

ekiM section: nothing to comment on

elli section:

Post #458: This is both true and not something scumElli would have a lot of motivation to point out.

Zorblag actually pointed out the MME lack of reading first, in this post, so I don't think this is really a point in favor for elli, and in fact should be listed as a point in favor for troll.

mostly agree with the rest of your points.

kmd section: no comments

mith section: no comments

MME section:

Post #451: I really don't see scum making this post. If this is feigned ignorance, then I have to say that MME is an impressive actor.

Agree and forgot all about this until this post bumping MME up to leaning town.

ooba section: no comments for now.

Plume section:

Post #834: The particular wording of "Vig shoots Elmo tonight is obv the best plan." seems highly unlikely to come from scum, who would know that Elmo was vig.

This is not just about plume, but with the possibility of a second vig in play, this is not necessarily something scum would avoid suggesting.

Rhinox section:

Post #293: Pretty damn horrible. Both the idea in itself and the wording of this post are super scummy to me. "I'm just going to tunnel on you until one of us is dead

based on the idea

that this was a scum gambit designed to influence which roles the town gave to scum." That's not the way that someone who actually believed in what he was saying would word that post, I don't think.

This accusation is pretty damn horrible. A) this was just me expressing a bit of rage at the turn of events that led to the hammer of a role I felt was not optimal based on bad information, and B) that's not how I acted at all in the game, so...? and C) which is an extension of B), if it sounded like I didn't believe what I was saing in that post, it would be because

I didn't actually intend to act on what I was saying in that post

, as evidenced by completely ignoring it happened ever since, and not actually acting how I said I was going to.

all the stuff about tajo and lists

I thought I was done trying to explain this, but I'll give it one more go. Forget about the statistic and the random list part, that was bad explaining on my part. The issue I had with it was that tajo's list was not selected in a "completeness" way, it was selected in a "lazy" way. The list of players proded is/was not one in the same with the list of players lurking, ergo it does not follow that the list of players prodded is likely to contain scum because lurkers are likely to be scum. There may have been (and in fact were) players included in that list that did not fit the lurker title, and there may have been (and probably were) players who fit the lurking title that were not prodded at that particular point of the game. It does not mean that I didn't think there was scum in that group, I just felt he was using bad and lazy logic. In fact, town-tajo would likely hit a scum in that group by raw statistics, but I felt that because of the way tajo made his list, if he were town, he might as well of picked 6 random names. Scum-tajo on the other hand would have had any number of possible motives for choosing his list as he did.

This issue has really been moot for a while now, and tajo is dead and town, but if this is going to be held against me, these are the points that need to be proven true:

1) All the players on tajo's list were lurkers.
2) There were no other lurkers outside of tajo's list.
3) At least 1 scum is/was likely to be lurking.

The core of the issue is/was that I did not believe any of those 3 points were accurate. I asked for evidence of the players on tajo's list lurking and got none. I asked if any other lurker was deserving to be on the list (TM) but get left out, and was ignored. When I asked spyrex why the list was better than 6 random names, here's the response I got:

Now, why is that list better than a random list? Seriously?

The simple fact that calling out six people for being behind activity levels at that point is telling. When I get some more time I'll go ahead and parse activity D0, D1 before that and after and see what shakes out because I guarantee you you'll see some patterns.

This is not only not an answer, but he never did what he said he was going to do in this post.

"I'm not seeing why zoraster is earning votes, but maybe I've missed that part of the thread." - Wouldn't your first instinct as a townie, faced with someone receiving a significant number of votes that you don't understand, be to maybe try to find out a reason for those votes? Maybe read the part of the thread that you somehow missed, maybe ask the voters for their reasons? Not so Rhinox, he seems to be content to just let it be.

I can see why you think what you do, but you're making a faulty assumption. You're assuming that I did not indeed go read zoraster in iso, and go read all the players who voted zoraster on the D1 wagon looking for reasons, and then read it all a couple more times, and try to determine why there were votes on zoraster. I could not find a reason, and thus my statement you quoted was my (aparently bad) way of trying to provoke anyone supporting the D1 zoraster wagon to give me some reasons he was getting votes. Actually, I'm a bit suspicious of this point of attack you made against me - I would think a townie who suspected me of not reading parts of the thread to ask me a question like "Hey Rhinox, why are there parts of the thread you're missing", or "Why didn't you read back and try to figure that out" before automatically assuming the answer, where as scum looking to attack a townie would assume an answer to twist an innoculous statement into something scummy.

Post #842: Wooow, this reaction to Hero's "I saw Hoop's breadcrumb" post is just awful. Like seriously, "I think you're town for now, but thats what scum you wants me to think, right?" Why would you ever say this as town?

Well, the answer is, thats what I said as town, so... idk. Thats what I was feeling. That my first instinct was that scum-hero would claim to have seen the breadcrumb to "prove" he was town, but for the time being I was going to believe he was actually townie who saw the breadcrumb due to the evidence he provided. With that statement, I obviously wasn't trying to distance from hero-scumpartner, and I never used that to actually try to build a case on hero or get him mislynched - in fact, pretty consistent all of D2 that I felt hero was town - so I'm not too sure what I'm actually being attacked for here. So now its my turn to ask you - what about my reaction was awful? Why was it not something I should say as town?

Post #880: Imagine for a moment that you are Rhinox, and you are scum with DGB and Vas. Would you be able to resist making this post?

Sry, I was already inb4. Also, circular logic is circular.

Post #929: Given that the answer to "what changed?" is both obvious, and stated clearly in the post where ooba voted Vas, this is a pretty horrible excuse for a wagon.

Now that zoraster has flipped town, this issue with ooba is not as big of a deal for me as it was yesterday. I was working the angle that ooba leapfrogged his zoraster suspicion for VV to avoid voting for a scumbuddy. I was wrong, and now it seems more likely that ooba genuine felt VV became scummier than zoraster.

Post #1000: Is that an "ooba is scum no matter what Vas flips" post? I think it is. Oh boy.

Sure was. What's your point? Some people want to see certain flips to determine other players' allignments. I was trying to find scum in a way that doesn't involve some other scenario being true. The whole point behind that post was that people were trying to find other scum based on how they felt VV would flip, so I went looking for scum that "fit" regardless of VV's allignment. Its not exclusively how I play though, as evidenced above by admitting my suspicion of ooba has lessened by the zoraster flip.

Post #1046: This 'circumstantial evidence' business gives me the shivers. It's real "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" stuff, he's downplaying the importance of the argument a lot, trying to put it beyond scrutiny by saying that it's just a curiosity that he'll be "interested to see if it's valid in the postgame", but he never actually gets to the point of saying that it's not valid.

You're basically selectively quoting me here, by not linking to this post where I gave the answer that I decided it wasn't valid after asked for clarification by hero.

Summary of thoughts of iam's list of points against me: It feels as if iam created this list by starting with a goal of proving I was scum and manipulating some of my quotes into supporting that conclusion, rather than reading me and coming to the conclusion that I am scum afterwards. But of course, I'm biased, and I'm going to have a negative reaction to what I know is a bad attack against me. I'll hold off judgement until I hear some more interaction on an issue I'm not biased.

Seraph section:

Post #692: This post gives me a bad feeling. Overexplaining yourself in this way is a symptom of scum being overly concerned about appearing consistent.

I find it odd that you bring up overexplaining here, but don't mention anything of mith's responses to the accusations against him at the end of the day yesterday. Specifically, the abcd... logic train list, as well as the extended football metaphor fall well in the realm of "way overexplaining", although in a different context, I admit.

Post #938: Seraph finally stops tunneling on Vas for a second to discuss other scum. What exactly makes the idea of a DGB/Vas/Rhinox team ridiculous? The fact that they're being too obvious about it? I invite you to take a look at the scum play in /in-vitational 4.

Now this is interesting... using a game in which none of us are even involved in as meta-evidence to support your idea of a scum group? Thats pretty scummy.

I disagree with pretty much all the points you brought up against seraph here. The points feel manipulated and contrived.

Spyrex section: I completely disagree with you. I've said before that hoopla and VV are not the type of targets I generally see town-spyrex go after. The add-on to that, that I have left off until now, is "...especially if he genuinely thinks a player like me or hero are scum".

VV section: Against my better judgement, I'm going to let you guys in on a little bit of my thinking with VV here. In some recent games, I've joined wagons of some VI-type players I've really thought were town, but I voted to lynch anyways because the case was convincing enough and I didn't have a good reason not to vote the player, nor a more convincing case elsewhere. So, I've regretted making those decisions, and decided that the next time I was in a position where I really felt strongly that a VI-type player was town, I would not support the lynch and try harder to find better lynches. VV is that player in this game. I admit there are solid reasons to lynch him, but I do not think he is scum, and will not support his lynch.

Troll section: A couple of interesting points there, that I have not really considered until now.

Do you think any of troll's D0 play is indicative of his allignment?


Well, I think this is a long enough post for now. Hope it's legible.

[mith]

Kmd: I'll quickly debunk the reasons you've come up with this time (VV was in no danger of being lynched, zoraster wasn't worth silencing because no one was listening to him) to move on to the rest.

You accept that I play differently than you do - so why are you hung up on this case based around me thinking differently than you?

Here's where I think we are crossing wires (and I have already explained this at least twice, which is why I am extremely frustrated with you, but let's try once more). Kmd, you are saying:

a. mith gave a reason for zoraster-town.
b. mith ignored that reason in favor of something "extremely weak" (zoraster-playing-dumb)
c. OMG, mith put zoraster at L-1 and demanded a claim for reasons he couldn't have believed in!

You saw what you saw... but what you didn't see was what actually happened:

a. mith gave a reason for zoraster-town.
b.

mith gave an equal and opposite reason for zoraster-scum.

c. mith gave an additional (possibly "extremely weak", though not how I would label it of course) reason for zoraster-scum.
d. mith concluded (through logic verified accurate by a now confirmed innocent third party) the ignorance was a slight point against zoraster.
e.

mith then gave four other reasons why zoraster's post was suspect, in addition to the reasons he had already expressed in previous posts.

f. mith then looked at the looming deadline, the apparent inevitability of zoraster's lynch (he had already been at L-1, with Herodotus unvoting to make sure attention was paid elsewhere, and to give time for zoraster to make his promised post), and the pile of suspicions, mith thought "let's get on with this".

I'm not sure what you're talking about re: appeal to authority. If you're talking about name-dropping Herodotus and Elmo, I'm not asking you to look at them as "authorities", I'm asking you to look at them as unbiased third-parties (obviously, if I

were

scum, I would be making arguments to persuade you of my innocence, just as I am now, so you have to evaluate what I am saying from a "sincerity" stand point... the problem is that you've reached the wrong conclusion, so I am left with resorting to pointing you at players who reached the right conclusion with the same data). If you're talking about the "site owner" comment, ~shrug~. Certainly not an appeal to my authority; just trying to figure out why you are tunneling on me with such a poor case. It has happened before, and I that's the impression this gives - particularly when you keep repeating the same series of events which

didn't actually happen in the way you are portraying them

.

[iamausername]

3) Throwing out a thought - KMD not blocked equals second vig? No need to discuss in detail as even though scum already know the answer, the discussion could provide clues to identify. Just thought it was worth mentioning to keep in consideration.

Agree with Rhinox's point 3 that a second Vig remains a possibility, and that Kmd unblocked lends weight to that possibility, and that we shouldn't discuss this in detail - if we have a second Vig, we will likely know it for certain tonight.

I have thoughts about this, but I think it's better to keep them to myself right now. As should everyone else.

elli section:

Post #458: This is both true and not something scumElli would have a lot of motivation to point out.

Zorblag actually pointed out the MME lack of reading first, in this post, so I don't think this is really a point in favor for elli, and in fact should be listed as a point in favor for troll.

No, because Troll made no mention of what this said for MME's alignment. Pointing out that MME was paying no attention is a null tell, because that was both blindingly obvious and not particularly against scum's interest to point out anyhow. Pointing out that MME's cluelessness was a pretty big town tell in that situation is less obvious, and something that scum would have considerably less inclination to say.

This is not just about plume, but with the possibility of a second vig in play, this is not necessarily something scum would avoid suggesting.

True, I hadn't thought of that.

This accusation is pretty damn horrible. A) this was just me expressing a bit of rage at the turn of events that led to the hammer of a role I felt was not optimal based on bad information, and B) that's not how I acted at all in the game, so...? and C) which is an extension of B), if it sounded like I didn't believe what I was saing in that post, it would be because

I didn't actually intend to act on what I was saying in that post

, as evidenced by completely ignoring it happened ever since, and not actually acting how I said I was going to.

Right, I meant to complete that thought later on; the fact that you never actually followed through on this, in addition to the highly artificial tone I picked up from the wording, makes me think the whole thing was just staged as a little piece of distancing between you and DGB.

I think it's very interesting that you freely admit that you had no intention of acting on what you were saying there, rather than claiming to have changed your mind later. What made you think it was a good idea to make a completely insincere post like that?

This issue has really been moot for a while now, and tajo is dead and town, but if this is going to be held against me, these are the points that need to be proven true:

1) All the players on tajo's list were lurkers.
2) There were no other lurkers outside of tajo's list.
3) At least 1 scum is/was likely to be lurking.

The core of the issue is/was that I did not believe any of those 3 points were accurate.

Really, not even #3?

I would think a townie who suspected me of not reading parts of the thread to ask me a question like "Hey Rhinox, why are there parts of the thread you're missing", or "Why didn't you read back and try to figure that out" before automatically assuming the answer, where as scum looking to attack a townie would assume an answer to twist an innoculous statement into something scummy.

Haha, nicely done.

So, when nobody did seem to pick up on your subtle attempt at requesting an explanation for the zor votes, why did you not make the request more bluntly?

I never used that to actually try to build a case on hero or get him mislynched - in fact, pretty consistent all of D2 that I felt hero was town - so I'm not too sure what I'm actually being attacked for here. So now its my turn to ask you - what about my reaction was awful? Why was it not something I should say as town?

Yeah, no, because you knew you had no case there. The whole thing smacks of scum being irritated that a townie has confirmed themselves, basically.

Post #1000: Is that an "ooba is scum no matter what Vas flips" post? I think it is. Oh boy.

Sure was. What's your point?

Brainfart. My point is totally invalid. "X is scum no matter what Y flips" is a phrase that always sets off alarm bells, because I've seen it in the past coming from scum

who are voting for Player Y

. But since you weren't in any way pushing a Vas lynch while saying this, the tell doesn't apply here.

Summary of thoughts of iam's list of points against me: It feels as if iam created this list by starting with a goal of proving I was scum and manipulating some of my quotes into supporting that conclusion, rather than reading me and coming to the conclusion that I am scum afterwards.

Some of this would stem from the way I went about getting caught up on the thread; I read through the whole thing first, to get some initial reads and to make sure I'd have an idea of the context before I went about reading each player in iso and commenting on them. So I did have a scum read on you before writing any of that post (Elli, on the other hand, totally passed me by on my initial readthrough, it wasn't until I read all his posts in one block that I saw how terribly he has been coasting).

I find it odd that you bring up overexplaining here, but don't mention anything of mith's responses to the accusations against him at the end of the day yesterday. Specifically, the abcd... logic train list, as well as the extended football metaphor fall well in the realm of "way overexplaining", although in a different context, I admit.

The context is important. The thing that makes Seraph's overexplaining scummy where mith's is not is that Seraph's explanations were totally unsolicited, wheras mith has only been overexplaining in response to Kmd being boneheaded and completely impervious to logic.

Now this is interesting... using a game in which none of us are even involved in as meta-evidence to support your idea of a scum group? Thats pretty scummy.

HYPOTHETICAL SITUATION:

Bob says "Sally said the word "pie", which scum would never do!"
Zoe links him to a previous game of hers, which neither Bob nor Sally were involved in, where scum player George said the word "pie".

Please explain in 500 words or fewer why Zoe is scum in this situation.

(p.s. If any of you

had

been involved, you'd know that it failed pretty epicly for them, so I'd imagine you'd be less inclined to do it. )

I've said before that hoopla and VV are not the type of targets I generally see town-spyrex go after.

I think RayFrost's play D2 in Flash Mafia is definitely comparable to Vas here, right up to having legions of fools convinced that he was town for no good reason. I know, because I was one of those fools. And I recall Spyrex gunning pretty hard for him.

Oh hey, and this time it's a game you

were

involved in, too!

Do you think any of troll's D0 play is indicative of his allignment?

I hope not! (I haven't read much of it. )

[Ellibereth]

I'm kinda back.
Will be catching up either tomorrow or the day after.
Yeah

[VasudeVa]

I don't get why Spy is Town for attacking Rhinox. People have been subtly attacking rhinox ever since D0.

[SpyreX]

Ok, this page really exemplifies my issues with whats going on:

You've got mith 'arguing' with KMD who is town.

You've got Rhinox all riled up with IAUN without calling scum (and who is town).

You've got VV giving his same old song and dance wedged between these walls that are reaaallly hard to read.

And then you've got a lot of nothing else.

I want some normal, fits on the screen, actual IDEAS from the majority of the game laid out without these giant walls. IAUN's at least makes sense as a catchup but good lord.

[Kmd4390]

Mith, how is the case, AT ALL, based on different styles of play? It's not. It's a major inconsistency in your logic for voting zoraster.

To your "b" on my thought process, close enough. I actually am saying you dismissed the town point, not that you ignored it. But semantics blah blah. "C" is a gross understatement of my thoughts. It's more like "OMG mith just put zoraster at L-1 and demanded a claim for reasons that make no sense AFTER he just gave a reason for zoraster to be town".

To "b" on

your

thought process, not at all true. Sure, it's opposite, but there is nothing equal about it. This has been my main point this entire time. I don't know how many times I have to repeat this.

There is no reason why zoraster would fake a scum read on confirmed town. I don't see how you could possibly think this to be and "equal" alternative to the possibility that he just hadn't read closely enough to see it.

There is just no benefit for scum to do that. There is no way he'd get support for a lynch on me, which he wasn't trying to do anyway considering he had me as a number 2 or 3 suspect and didn't vote me. And there is no way he would have thought "hey, maybe someone will see this, think I'm not paying attention, and must be town because a QuickTopic would have discussed this already". I just don't see how you can think that's an equal possibility.

On "c", what was the "additional" reason? To me, it looked like you were just voting him on the possibility that he was faking ignorance regarding my claim. Oh, you mean that he was lurking and calling DGB scum? Ok, didn't realize you thought that was an actual case.

If "f" was the case, why not mention the deadline AT ALL when you voted?

The appeal to authority is the fact that you mention being the site owner and try to use that to discredit my case.

------------

Iam, what about mith's logic makes more sense than mine?

-------------

Going back to 1170 now. (finally on a computer)

Wow. The first part of that is the closest you have come to understanding my case. Let me quote it:

Obviously if you don't agree with a premise (D: playing dumb is possible), you aren't going to agree with the conclusion.

THIS IS EXACTLY IT

. I don't agree that it makes any sense at all for zoraster to play dumb on that issue. Therefore, I don't see it as a strong enough possibility for you to dismiss your town point on zoraster. This makes the fact that you voted him scummy.

Wow, did I seriously do that? I was going to use the NFC East as an example and got halfway through it before realizing how much better the NFC North worked. Guess I forgot to change it.

Ok, I don't think many can argue that the Lions and Bears have more than a 15% chance between them to win the division. Let's even give the Vikings 40%. So if the Packers only have a 45% chance, would you be willing to bet against them based on that fact even though they have the best chance to win? I sure as hell wouldn't. The Lions and Bears being in the division doesn't mean shit because they don't win shit. The chance that zoraster was playing dumb doesn't mean shit because chances of it being true are shit. Should we lynch someone on V/LA because being V/LA can come from either alignment, but only scum would lie about it?

No, no, no. The Packers represent "He could be either alignment who missed the claim". This was the neutral possibility. The Lions/Bears represent scum lying. The Vikings are just kind of there because we know the NFC North has 4 teams.

The Vas thing makes more sense until you factor in the vig. VIs, for whatever reason, tend to avoid the ropes and live longer than they should. It's a possible strategy. It's

possible

that Vas could have done that. Obviously, I personally wouldn't. But it's possible. I don't see where the zoraster thing is

possible

. There is a major difference there.

Premise 1: Actual ignorance is a null-tell.
Premise 2: Feigned ignorance is possible, and can only come from scum.
Conclusion: The ignorance on display is a slight scum-tell (add a small possibility of definite scum to what is otherwise a null-tell).

^This right here is just wrong. Premise 2 makes absolutely NO SENSE. You are using math (50% chance of alignment on Premise 1 vs 100% scum in Premise 2 = more than 50% scum = vote zoraster) where simple logic shows it to be just plain wrong.

---------------

To Hero's 1183:
Yes, Hero is confirmed town. That doesn't confirm his reads. All he really says is that he bought your defense, but he thinks zoraster's post is genuine.

To Elmo's 1199:
The only thing he says is that the wagon is bad. Again, confirmed alignment doesn't mean confirmed reads.

To Iam's catchup post:
Uh... what are we looking at here? The fact that he has a town read on you?

--------------

You are just pulling everything you can find to try to defend yourself. None of what you have said has come close to being more townie than the zoraster vote was scummy.

[iamausername]

THIS IS EXACTLY IT

. I don't agree that it makes any sense at all for zoraster to play dumb on that issue. Therefore, I don't see it as a strong enough possibility for you to dismiss your town point on zoraster. This makes the fact that you voted him scummy.

But it's not the reason why mith dismissed his town point on zoraster. The town point was "surely scum would know what was going on", this was dismissed because "surely town would also know what was going on", not because "but scum might lie!"

mith has already said this over and over, I don't understand why you can't get this.

[Kmd4390]

He seems to be pushing:

50% chance of alignment on Premise 1 vs 100% scum in Premise 2 = more than 50% scum = vote zoraster