Mafia 1013 - Prozacs Basic Theme - Game has ENDED

[xvart]

Xvart, the title got changed to Day Three and a Half. And if you look up the role of Poisoner, it is a mafia role that takes affect at a later time.

I get that the poisoner typically works on a delayed timeline, but the fact that you are justifying this by the title of the thread being changed is absolutely absurd. So do you think one of the scum members has a night shot and the other has a delayed poison ability? If that is the case in this game then neither Confucius nor Anon are cleared anymore. The reason I was thinking the poisoner was a town role was because of the circumstances (as I have explained). It makes sense to me that a vig would kill our prime suspect to simulate a double lynch for the town, and with the added discussion about the stolen syringe that is what I had worked out.

Also, there is nothing in my

storyline

that would suggest what a thief would steal from me. Thus, leaving me to believe that someone would get something based off of my role. I don't know why I thought it was relevant, just throwing it out there.

Maybe they would still your gun or poisoned needles?

Just throwing this out there. I have considered claiming SK as scum I believe. But since no one is CCing, Anon and Xvart are pretty much scum-confirmed, as Confucius and Stranger have cleared themselves in my opinion.

How is Confucius cleared? Especially after your detailed explanation of how the poisoning works? Confucius hasn't actually saved anyone if what you are saying about poisoning is accurate in this game, and is therefore unconfirmed. In fact, now that I think about it, a claimed doctor would be a perfect claim for scum because it would keep Budja from killing him since the doctor can't save against burning; but the only problem is the possible counter claim; so I'm not really ready to go down this road since Confucius claimed so early.

If anyone looks at Xvart's posts, all he does is ask non-relevant questions. He also tries to use the info he gets to turn it around on the person. This is why I want to lynch him ^_^.

What non-relevant questions have I asked? I'm trying to get a grip on how all these roles interact, so if you consider my speculation on what might happen each night with an outted arsonist or asking if a bus driver is typically a scum or town role as non-relevant I guess that is your prerogative. I have never played in a game with a commuter, poisoner, or thief, and I was only in one game with a bus driver where I was killed N1. This is pretty new territory for me and despite you and the arsonist going around casting votes I'm trying to get information about likely scenarios to help the town.

Also, I don't think a real Arsonist would Counterclaim at this point. Also, I don't see a problem in killing a claimed arsonist either:
* If we kill arsonist, there's one mafia kill tonight. Confic will protect either me or Stranger (I assume). I will therefore either bus either me or Confuc with one of the remaining scum. Mathematically, we have a 66% chance of protecting correctly. Thus, next day occurs and we outnumber scum 3 to 2.
* If we kill scum claiming arsonist, it doesn't hurt us. One down, two to go. We still protect the same people, good chance all or atleast 2 survive till tomorrow.
* Also, Doctor can only protect from mafia kills, whereas Arsonist can still kill those people. Just saying.

Xvart is who I want to lynch.

This is especially disturbing to me because you outline why killing the arsonist is an optimal play for the town but then you vote me.

I don't see how leaving the arsonist alive is going to be good play, so unless someone can convince me otherwise:

VOTE: Budja

xvart.

[Budja]

Richard Jones.

Killing the arsonist means town may lose tonight.
Killing scum means town may win tonight by saving someone and at worst get another chance to block.

The only ones who really get screwed by this is you and Anon.

[StrangerCoug]

Just throwing this out there. I have considered claiming SK as scum I believe. But since no one is CCing, Anon and Xvart are pretty much scum-confirmed, as Confucius and Stranger have cleared themselves in my opinion.

How is Confucius cleared? Especially after your detailed explanation of how the poisoning works? Confucius hasn't actually saved anyone if what you are saying about poisoning is accurate in this game, and is therefore unconfirmed. In fact, now that I think about it, a claimed doctor would be a perfect claim for scum because it would keep Budja from killing him since the doctor can't save against burning; but the only problem is the possible counter claim; so I'm not really ready to go down this road since Confucius claimed so early.

Confucius is cleared by my stealing the syringe from him. For otherwise to be true, I must be unable to rely on stolen items for determining scum (or be scum myself, but I'm not, and Blackberry still brings up a good point).

The delayed kill makes it more likely in my mind that the poisoner killed Flameaxe to prevent getting bus driven, but I'm not saying this is why; it may make as little sense to anybody else as your theory does.

I don't see how leaving the arsonist alive is going to be good play, so unless someone can convince me otherwise:

VOTE: Budja

We lynch the arsonist, Mafia makes a kill, it's 2:2 and a town loss. You wanting to go this route comes off as appearing to want to lynch scum, but the wrong scum—your enemy other than us. Way to fail logic class.

VOTE: xvart

Killing scum means town may win tonight by saving someone and at worst get another chance to block.

Town also wins if you and the Mafioso we don't lynch make a crosskill.

[Blackberry]

Unvote

- Although I do want to kill Xvart. I want to rethink things through when I have time to to read through everything.

Stranger - I also suggested killing Arsonist. Thoughts?
(Reason being: mafia can only kill one, I can bus, and Confuc can save... 2/3 chance we protect correctly XD)

[Budja]

^ You two cannot coordinate. I'd make it just over a 50/50 chance.
The only ones who get screwed here are the scum. The worst you can get by not killing me is a prisoners dilemma and that is not very likely.
(Fueled by self-interest but the logic is still correct.)
(Posting between exams is probably a bad idea )

[xvart]

Confucius is cleared by my stealing the syringe from him. For otherwise to be true, I must be unable to rely on stolen items for determining scum (or be scum myself, but I'm not, and Blackberry still brings up a good point).

And Confucius couldn't possibly be a mafia goon (with former doctor flavor/secret of malpractice) with poison as his weapon? What do you expect you would steal from the poisoner?

The only ones who really get screwed by this is you and Anon.

Well if we are going to target mafia then I will vote Anon, because he is as unconfirmed as I am and as likely scum based on PoE, and I know lynching me is the wrong play for us, which means Anon is scum. If lynching mafia is the safest play for town, then Anon is the lynch; not me. Then you can steal from me and clear me tonight, and since everyone is so confident in Confucius being the doctor he will save you.

We lynch the arsonist, Mafia makes a kill, it's 2:2 and a town loss. You wanting to go this route comes off as appearing to want to lynch scum, but the wrong scum—your enemy other than us. Way to fail logic class.

And if when you lynch town how are our odds of winning?

I'm interested to hear your thoughts about BB's number crunching.

xvart.

[Blackberry]

^ You two cannot coordinate. I'd make it just over a 50/50 chance.

I know what the real chances were, I just wanted to intimidate. >=( Why are you helping Mafia?

[Budja]

Suggest my lynch is a decent idea intimidates me, not mafia.

[xvart]

Budja - what's really intriguing is the fact that you are hesitant to claim why you killed Mijutski night 1 and are reluctant to reveal your flavor/secret. Why is that? You have nothing to hide as the outted Arsonist.

xvart.

[Confucius]

Technically, Blackberry's number crunching is not far off. There are multiple ways a Mafia kill can backfire:

->

a.)

I can prevent the kill; or
->

b.)

The Mafia kill might be redirected to a Mafiate
->

c.)

Mafia might try to "kill themselves" in the hopes of being Bus Driven, but then not be Bus Driven (as occurred in Scrubs Mafia)

I do not think Blackberry should even hint at who (or if) he is going to Bus Drive tonight.

~

xvart, how could stealing from you "confirm" you? You very well might be telling the truth about your flavor. This is a strange statement coming from you when, in the same post, you argued that stealing a syringe from me does not "confirm" me.

[xvart]

I'm guessing that the point of the thief is an investigative role of sorts, correct? So wouldn't the thief steal something that indicates mafia or arsonist alignment? Otherwise, what is the point of the thief other than to confirm our story flavor?

I also don't see what you are saying is strange; stealing a syringe doesn't confirm you as doctor if the syringe is a weapon of the poisoner, and since you haven't saved anyone it is a possibility, especially with your alleged false accusations of malpractice. It might confirm you as having doctor flavor or having access to doctor tools, but I don't see how someone who All I know is that based on my flavor, story, and secret SC won't be getting a gun, poison bottle, syringe, match, gasoline, or anything related to those things, which would confirm me as not scum tomorrow;

unless the thief is completely useless and doesn't steal scummy items from scum

.

I have a follow up. You said you left your previous job after being wrongly accused of malpractice to start a family. You are not currently practicing medicine?

xvart.

[Confucius]

Obviously I still practice medicine.

I'm guessing that the point of the thief is an investigative role of sorts, correct? So wouldn't the thief steal something that indicates mafia or arsonist alignment? Otherwise, what is the point of the thief other than to confirm our story flavor?

The Thief clearly does at least confirm story flavor, elsewise StrangerCoug would not have gotten a "pint of beer" result from Flameaxe.

[xvart]

The Thief clearly does at least confirm story flavor, elsewise StrangerCoug would not have gotten a "pint of beer" result from Flameaxe.

Clearly, but why didn't you include yourself in that example as being cleared flavor wise? I would think that would be the first example that pop to your mind. Just a quick question, and just take a guess; but what do you suppose SC would steal from the gun toting mafia? What about the poisoner? And the arsonist?

xvart.

[Confucius]

I did not include myself as an example of a Thief confirming flavor because a "syringe" is clearly related to my

role

and not my

flavor

.

Earlier, you were arguing that the Poisoner must be Town, and now you have changed your tune once players started agreeing you were the correct lynch. Asking me loaded questions is surprisingly not helping your position.

[Blackberry]

Anon- MAFIA
Budja- TOWN
Fishythefish- TOWN
Flameaxe- TOWN
Jack- TOWN
llamaeatataco- TOWN
mallowgeno- TOWN
Mitsuru Kirijo- MAFIA
Raivann- TOWN
StrangerCoug- TOWN
xvart- MAFIA

-- This was my drunk intuitive read. Don't know where it's going. After briefly skimming, just looking at the usernames and posts I SEE either town (faded) or MAFIA (bold). I'll re-examine it when I am sober.

If there's only two mafia, instead of three, then this isn't bad if I was accurate!

I did a drunk read in my other game, and one of the people I listed as Mafia came up as Mafia (then again, I listed 4 people as Mafia in that drunk read and I don't know why, lol).

Vote: Xvart

again.

[xvart]

I did not include myself as an example of a Thief confirming flavor because a "syringe" is clearly related to my

role

and not my

flavor

.

But it is related to your flavor of once being a doctor. But I'm glad you said what you did because you attacked me over my suggestion of being cleared by SC tomorrow because how could I possibly be cleared if SC stole from me. If your PR is confirmed because of an item that was stolen from you, wouldn't it be a pretty safe assumption to think that either the mafia or arsonist would be confirmed by the same reasoning? Or do you think that the thief only steals relevant items from town PRs? Since I am vanilla townie, SC won't be stealing anything scum related, which is what would clear me. Now that you admit the thief can confirm roles, explain your attack on me. Also, you didn't answer what you might hypothesize that SC would steal from the gun shooting mafia, the poisoning mafia, and the arsonist. This is clearly an important question because it is 100% relevant to your attack on me.

Earlier, you were arguing that the Poisoner must be Town, and now you have changed your tune once players started agreeing you were the correct lynch. Asking me loaded questions is surprisingly not helping your position.

And I explained why I thought as such before anyone else had really come out and claimed the poison was 100% scum. But, it is interesting that you were the first to suggest that the stolen needle might actually be poisoned.

xvart.

[Confucius]

Noting that I could hammer at the moment.

xvart, if you are going to claim Arsonist, Poisoner, or anything besides Townie, do so in your next post.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm glad there was a preview edit—I almost made this post with the incorrect thinking that there were five players left instead of six.

Stranger - I also suggested killing Arsonist. Thoughts?

You suggested that at 4:2:1. I'm worried about the 3:2:1 we know we're in; does your theory still hold?

Confucius is cleared by my stealing the syringe from him. For otherwise to be true, I must be unable to rely on stolen items for determining scum (or be scum myself, but I'm not, and Blackberry still brings up a good point).

And Confucius couldn't possibly be a mafia goon (with former doctor flavor/secret of malpractice) with poison as his weapon? What do you expect you would steal from the poisoner?

A poison straight up such as cyanide, thallium, etc. If the mod wanted to mess with me, he could hand me antifreeze from the poisoner—the average innocent person keeps it around the last time I checked, but it has a sweet taste and consuming it can kill you.

We lynch the arsonist, Mafia makes a kill, it's 2:2 and a town loss. You wanting to go this route comes off as appearing to want to lynch scum, but the wrong scum—your enemy other than us. Way to fail logic class.

And if when you lynch town how are our odds of winning?

That makes it 2:2:1 going into night, requiring a crosskill for us to stand a chance.

[xvart]

Vote: Xvart

again.

So you don't think your suggested plan of lynching the arsonist is sound anymore?

Noting that I could hammer at the moment.

xvart, if you are going to claim Arsonist, Poisoner, or anything besides Townie, do so in your next post.

Noting that you are still not answering the relevant questions to your attack on my suggestion of how to clear me tonight.

And why do you keep asking me to claim something I am not in my next post? IF you are town and hammer, you screw our faction over; however, if I am lynched and the town happens to survive the night by whatever bus driver/commuter/whatever reason, and Budja actually doesn't kill anyone, then the town should have a decent amount of information to go on tomorrow.

I also implore everyone to go back and look at my play this game and Anon (the other unconfirmed role) and see which of us is most likely to be playing the scum game. Where is Anon anyways?

xvart.

[xvart]

Oh, and if the best play is to lynch the mafia and not the arsonist, then

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Anon

xvart.

[Confucius]

xvart:

I do not know what a Thief would steal from a "gun-toting Mafia" (as you have worded it). You loaded your question so the obvious answer would be "gun," but I do not know how Porochaz would implement a Thief role, especially given the "pint of beer" result on Flameaxe. Furthermore, I do not find it outside the realm of possibility that Porochaz has created an investigative role that is largely useless, as I have similarly implemented "useful roles that are actually not useful" in many of my past modded games. Finally, I still think it it possible that StrangerCoug is a Mafia Thief, and in that case, Porochaz could make the role as useful or as useless as he desires.

[Anon]

Im here.

I think this is pretty simple.

I trust BB. I trust Confucious. Even if they werent semiconfirmed, those would be my top town reads.

I have my reservations with the Coug claim as I explained in my previous post, there is something weird going on there (Jack investigation).

We also know Budja is confirmed antitown.

If we are dealing with a 3-2-1 scenario, then xvart HAS to be scum from my pov. My read is still somewhat neutral but I obviously know I am not scum so POE kicked your ass, dude.

@Confucious: my point is that my role does not target, so a bus driver wouldnt affect me in the less. Think of my role as a passive ability rather than an active one. For example, its like you saying a godfather doesnt make sense in a setup with a tracker.

We should probably try to outsmart the scumbags in this night. Coordinating actions here would probably give them more information.

Oh, and if the best play is to lynch the mafia and not the arsonist, then
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Anon
xvart.

Nice try scumbag.

Unvote Vote: xvart.

[Blackberry]

Nice try scumbag.

~ Sounds like something mafia would say. It doesn't seem sincere. Although I don't think I have to convince anyone, lol.

[Anon]

fyi, Ive probably used that phrase in all my games. I like how it sounds.

Dont do anything stupid tonight, BB. We can win this one

[Budja]

Doesn't matter. If Xvart is not scum, that was the scummiest town play I have ever seen.

@scum, I know I said I'm not going to kill tonight but I lied. My kills cannot be bus-driven or blocked . We no-lynch tomorrow.