I'm really likeing IAU's case against LML. What I'm not liking, is how Nexus is following it.
Nexus wrote:He hasn't arrived to defend himself, so eh.
That was what Nexus said when he voted for LmL. I've tried to give that player the benefit of the doubt, due to being a newbie and all, but I just can't see the town motivation here. Are we supposed to believe that Nexus finds lack of defense a scumtell? What else could that statement even mean? I really don't think that post was well thought-out at all, and it is from my perspective sloppy scum play. I simply do not believe a player would find lack of defense a scumtell, when one of the largest fallacies in this game is being overly defensive. It's literally the exact opposite of the false newb reaction.
Also, I don't like how he ended that, either. "So eh", seriously? Might be lynching town again, but whatever he hasn't defended. That's how that comment reads. Also, even though he's defended it this:
Nexus wrote:Damnit. I want to prevent a hammer until LmL defends himself.
This is why he didn't want to put LmL at L-1, yet later he acts like he just doesn't care about it anymore. Also, as it has been mentioned, he stated he was frustrated that a good case was built. This is not town play, ever. He's not even lynching for a reason that he's claiming to believe in, he just said others have valid points. He has openly stated:
Nexus wrote:I just can't see past Llamafluff being scum. I thought he was scum D1, and he's done nothing to convince me otherwise today, so VOTE: Llamafluff I realise he's defended most of these accusations, but I wanted to reiterate why I was voting.
He can't see past Llama being scum, but he's voting for LmL over "valid points" others have made? This doesn't make sense. Here's something else to note:
Nexus wrote:My top two are probably LlamaFluff and Loudmouth Lee.
Notice how he ordered that. He put LlamaFluff first. We all put our top suspects first, as that is typically the way we order things. He then went on to vote for LmL for reasons inferior to his own, that he didn't even indicated he "believed" rather called them "valid". (A point can be valid, without finding that player scum.) Yet he votes for LmL over Llama.
He's also completely fence sitting on the subject of No-Lynch, under the guise that he's never been in a game like this so he's unsure. Really? Not everyone else in this game have been in a Mountainous game before. Hell, I was wrong about how the math of odds worked. But, I still have a stance on the matter. I still prefer to wait on no-lynch as if we lynch scum we don't need to do it at all. It looks like Nexus is simply trying to see which side wins, and go with that. This is further showcased by his jump off of Llama to LmL. Which he actually admits here:
Nexus wrote:Oh yeah, that's true. Well then I'll put it on him, he's the scummiest in my eyes, closely followed by LmL.
So he admittedly votes for his second-best because he's fearful of putting Llama at L-1, but once someone says it's ok he is willing to do so. Why is he so scared of putting a player at L-1, in the first place? Why is he ok with him being there just because another player says it's ok? Nothing had happened to give him a stronger reason to place that vote, so he simply posted it after he seemingly had approval to do so. I find that act to be an attempt to shed guilt of being part of the lynch.
I'm really not liking Nexus right now, and I'm getting the feeling that he may have been bussing LmL for being inactive, while trying to hold to the llama lynch as a potential mislynch on town. It's kind of funny, I had/have a pretty strong scum read on Llama, but Nexus' play are shedding a scummy light on both himself and LmL. I do not want a Llama lynch right now, nor do I want one for LmL.
unvote, Vote: Nexus
I want a Nexus lynch.
To clarify, I think that LmL could be scum due to Nexus' actions. It reads to me like Nexus was getting ready to bus from his "Well he hasn't been here to defend himself" comment. It look like scum telling their partner why they are bussing. The same with the "Damn it" comment. It looks like he's directing that at LmL, not the town. So while that is pure speculation, it's something I'm considering. My scum read on Nexus is far greater than my speculation about his bussing of LmL. It's just something I wanted to put out there.
@LlamaFluff:
Llama wrote:Nooooooo.... that is not what I am saying. If someone is confirmed scum, they are obviously the best lynch, that cant occur in this setup. Lets say that we talk about the game at any point, and our chance of scum lynch goes up 20%, if you add the 20% on to every chance, every day, in every "when to NL" scenario, no lynch early STILL is the best plan. 47% is still 2% more then 45%.
Actually, that is what you're saying. You said that even if you were told 100% that someone would claim scum in the next phase, you'd still push no-lynch today. In that event you are choosing to no-lynch over a scum lynch. If someone told you that, and you beleived it to be true, why wouldn't you try to lynch scum today and win the game in the next phase? My point, all along, has been that I feel no-lynching at this phase of the game is resigning to a LyLo situation. I don't feel it's trying to win, I feel it's trying to improve our odds at a moment where we're trying not to lose. Trying to win, and trying not to lose, are two entirely different things. I play to win, not to avoid losing.
Llama wrote:Also seriously... "lynching scum wins the game". That is just a weak arguement to make NL look bad. No lynch makes lynching scum more likely, therefore no lynch increases our chance of winning the game. Yay!
Except it decreases our odds of lynching scum in this phase by 100%. If you want to talk about numbers, why not consider that one? If we mislynch today, unless my math is off about tomorrow being the day before MyLo, I will vote no lynch in the next phase and leave it at that. Today, I want us to try and hit scum. I will not resign to "playing to avoid a loss" until I have to. I do not feel that "lynching scum wins the game" is a weak argument. I feel that no-lynching at this phase is a weak idea.
@Sotty:
Sotty wrote:You missunderstand.
I meant you abandoned your vote on Xite
but continued to argue with him. In fact you did more to argue with Xite than you did to TW. I find that strange seeing that your vote was on Wendy, that would mean you find her scummy and would have a reason to argue back and forth with her. You didn't really do that.
I swear, the next person that says I missunderstand something or that I misread something,
when I didn't
, is going to make my head explode:
Sotty wrote:Leech is there because of his argument with Xite yesterday. I disagreed with a lot of his points and
he even abandoned his vote for TW
but continued to fight for a prolonged period of time with Xite.
I didn't misunderstand, I replied to what you said. If you meant, what you later said, it's not my fault that you worded it incorrectly in the first place. You said I abandoned my vote for TW when I never did.
Now, on to the new and improved wording of your arguement... I didn't abandon my vote on Xite. I voted for TW when I felt that he was the scummiest player in the game. What you aren't taking into consideration is the fact that TW was an alt intentionally acting in that manner. He clearly had a plan with what he was doing, and was probably getting the reactions he was looking for. After the Alt slip I was confused about TW, and wasn't ready to move my vote until I had figured it out. I was arguing with Xite because I felt things Xite said were false and scummy. Of course I'm going to argue with Xite when I find something that I feel should be argued. I do not see how arguing with one person, while your vote is on another, is in any way a scum tell. After the alt slip with TW, I had a hard time making sense of it. Once I came to the conclusion he was town, I unvoted immediately, and placed my vote on the person that I felt most likely to be scum at that time. I can say with 100% certainty that I would do things in the exact same manner now, as I did then.
Sotty wrote:Fair enough, but why didn't you question Wendy with the same vigor you did with Xite?
Ever hear the term "Quality is greater than Quantity"? With Xite there were a lot of small things that when combined made me believe she (if we can believe that Llama was right about Xite's gender, that much I'll believe from him) was scum. With Wendy it was a few actions, and comments that I found extremely scummy. TW made a few comments that I had a hard time finding town motivations for, and they out-weighed what I found scummy about Xite. So, while you may feel that I didn't "question with the same vigor" it's mainly due to the fact that I had less to question, but more weight behind things that I was.
Sotty wrote:I am going to have to look over your ISO to see how you did transition off Wendy. I'll try and get to that today.
I'll save you the trouble, I'd mentioned I was confused about TW a few times, then in my ISO 20:
Leech wrote:I think everyone needs to read Wendy in ISO, if you read it through knowing it's an alt you see a subtle brilliance to his plays. I don't understand the self-vote, still, but a lot of what he was saying did make sense. I don't believe in the no lynch for this phase, but there are pros and cons to it. Playing a newb card to get attention while spouting off legitimate theories, which will be read because of the noise he was making could be a valid town strategy. On the other side of the coin, it would be an extremely lousy scum strategy. Other than Wendy's self-vote, what really scummy deed has he done? Reading Wendy in ISO knowing it's an alt, definitely changes the perspective. I just can't write it off as scum behavior anymore, knowing that.
From there on I start defending Wendy, as I thought that player slot was town. Until now I've never played with an Alt that outed themselves, especially one that was intentionally playing newbishly. That type of thing confuses matters when you were finding a player scummy, for reasons that player intended to be scummy in the first place. It took me a while to find a rationale behind it, and once I did I realized it was town. I completely disagree with TW's thoughts on no-lynch, but the fact that he believed in them strongly, and went to the lengths he went to about being noticed in this game I couldn't find scum motivation for that. It was an interesting technique, and I wouldn't be surprised if he made that alt specifically to try it out.
