A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[Macavitar]

@mod

, I voted for Magna, not for Unsight.

Fixed.

[CSL]

If Mina and everyone else is ready for Day to end, say so.

[RichardGHP]

Wait a little while. The end of this RL day, I'll be ready. Promise.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I have role-confirmed iron-clad belief that Mina is 100% triple-A not Greyjoy.

If and when the appropriate time comes you will have to explain this. Since you have claimed tracker I can’t see how you could conclusively clear Mina since there hasn’t been a single night where there were less than 2 Greyjoys so far. Lack of following her to a target when she has partners isn’t exactly clearing.

That said I don’t think she’s a Greyjoy anyway given how many were already on the Kingsguard (Percy and Raivann).

I'm just having a hard time believing he was jailkept or roleblocked the night he targeted hasoasiulklkgs - what are your thoughts on that?

The odds do look rather long on that account. That said based on Benmage’s ISO I can’t rule out the possibility that he may have blocked Mac Night 3. I'm never going to rule out something just because the odds are long. Look at Victorian Vampire Mafia - Spyrex kept hammering that that he couldn't possibly be a Godfather since he was scanned Town and Night 1 a miller had been scanned. He kept saying it was so unlikely it couldn't have happened. And yet it's exactly what did happen - the Cop scanned both roles that have scan altering abilities back to back N1 and N2.

MOD

– I’ll be V/LA after 4pm EDT until sometime Monday for my usual family duties.

[Mina]

Having no air-conditioning is impeding my ability to concentrate on writing wall posts. I'll have more content later this evening, but right now I need to head outside before I boil alive.

But just one thing: Richard, don't hammer Mac yet!

Right now, I'm still leaning toward him being the last Lannister. But I still have questions for him, Unsight, diddin, and Magna (and the latter won't be around until Monday, now). And I haven't even reread Mikujin yet.

We're getting to endgame. There's no reason not to be patient. We are going to do this right.

[RichardGHP]

Happy to wait out the day a little longer. I still have some stuff to reread that can't be done at night.

Off-topic, Mina, why the lack of air-con?

[CSL]

@ Non-voters: If you hammer before Mina makes her post(s), I'm voting you first thing.

Off-topic: No AC = Bad. Don't burn to death! :]

[Mina]

Richard, spoken like someone who takes air-conditioning for granted. I don't have AC at home. My window is open and my fan on, but it's not helping much. But thanks for the sympathy, guys.

Aah, I hate it when someone mentions something, and I keep meaning to respond, but then I put it off, and then more stuff still happens, and then still more stuff happens...until by the time I'm ready to catch up, I've missed half the game. I think I'll just spam the thread with scattershot thoughts over the weekend.

For example, something I should have called CSL on before:

@ Mina: That statement meant, to me anyways, that he was scum trying to be town, and got killed for it. If this does not make sense, I'll try to re-word it.

What? Are you saying you

knew

Mikujin was scum?

Maybe you misunderstood my question. When Mikujin pulled his whole "I don't think Locke will have anything to reveal, because ha ha ha, I just might have been keeping an

eye

on him" shtick, did you know he was a power role? Did you think he was a watcher?

Another thing. What made you go from this:

I want to lynch Unsight today.

Vote: Unsight

Once I flip town, you'll have bigger fish to fry. Like Unsight, who also NEEDS TO DIE!

to this:

More votes on Axelrod and SSBF, plox.

UNVOTE: SSBF
VOTE: Axelrod

Anxiety killed the Day.

What made you decide that Axelrod was scummier than Unsight? You never once mentioned Axelrod beforehand. What made you decide to vote him over Unsight? (This goes for even if you didn't know you were hammering him.)

==============
Hey, Unsight. You never answered this question:

diddin, MacavityLock, CSL, Richard, MoI, Thor, and Unsight.

Answer this honestly. Did you figure out that Mikujin was a watcher (and not some other "weak" information role) on D3? Maybe I'm biased, because I knew about the tracker, so he had to be the watcher by process of elimination. But come on. "I've been keeping an eye on a few people"?

I think Unsight's points on me are ridiculous, namely because:

-You do realize I only unvoted Raivann after he'd been pushed to L-1 and claimed vig? Before that, I was the first on his mob, and pushed his lynch over CMAR's. I only voted Budja because, now that Raivann was off the table, I preferred his lynch to CMAR's.

-You're the one clearing MoI merely because he put Mikujin in his Greyjoy suspect pool. I cleared Mikujin because he was the second vote on Raivann, and fervently pushed Raivann's lynch. I think there were very good reasons to think Mikujin wasn't a Greyjoy.

-You realize that I was the

second vote on Macavitar

? And that I attacked MoI for trying to get someone other than Mac lynched? Just because I'm attacking MoI, doesn't mean I'm willing to vote him. (TBH, though, I've been tempted. Still think it's better to have Mac's alignment settled once and for all.)

-Magna had already expressed a strong willingness to lynch you. He'd have probably pushed you as a Greyjoy suspect today had Mikujin not died. But furthermore, even if you think he wouldn't have distanced as scum, here's his final read on Mikujin:

Suspicion of Greyjoy (STRONG / MEDIUM / MINIMAL) - Minimal

That said...I think Unsight is unlikely to be Greyjoy, based on his reasoning that a Greyjoy wouldn't want to lynch Macavitar. Sure, it

could

be WIFOM (particularly since I'd come up with it first), but I don't get that vibe. Why wouldn't he keep pushing MagnaofIllusion, particularly since there's more support for a mob his way.

So Magna, what do you think about Unsight's #2218? Do you agree with me that it's more likely to come from town or a Lannister than a Greyjoy? Also, what do you think about my point that Unsight's pushing CSL over Axelrod makes him a less likely Greyjoy?

Still not sure if he can be a Lannister--on the one hand, I'm leaning townish on him atm (my Unsight read keeps oscillating), but on the other, his D2 interactions with dana work nicely as distancing.

What I find annoying is that xvart said that he found Unsight scummier than Rifka, expressed a willingness to vote for the former...but then, instead of voting Unsight before leaving for his V/LA, he

proxied his vote to Locke

(who didn't even suspect Unsight). I dunno. From a weaker player, this would have been damning. But judging by xvart's interaction with dana, I think he'd have had the guts to vote Unsight when his lynch. But it doesn't escape me that this would be an obvious way for him to protect Unsight without getting his hands dirty (because Locke would be controlling his vote). (It's the flip of Percy trying to keep his vote on CMAR AND Raivann, to distance and protect his buddy at the same time.) And the Lannisters were in a tighter position than on D2, so maybe xvart might've been more reluctant to distance.

I hadn't minded Faraday letting xvart proxy his vote, but now I've changed my mind. It's a cop-out, and makes it harder for us to catch tells and analyze wagons. Unless (mod WIFOM)...Faraday wouldn't have let xvart do that had his buddy been wagoned? *is hopeful*

[Mina]

LOOK OUT, INCOMING WALL!

What if the scum knew something about Brienne that they could use? What if the scum knew something about the person searching for Brienne? I maintain that not name-fishing was the right play. If you disagree, fine.

I given you as much specifics as I can. I thought people could find it to be a scummy question, and I thought maybe the scum could use the info to their advantage. How the heck do I know what powers/info the scum have?

Ugh.

The second quote in particular...ugh.

That is not a townie thought process. You were worried it would be perceived as role-fishing? Your PM said

nothing

about whether Brienne was a power role, but you'd thought it was likely the scum would know about her? Come on, you'd played the mini. What did you expect? "Here's your flavour text, here are your scumbuddies, here are your abilities...oh, and by the way, there's a player called Brienne out there, who's a tracker. So nightkill her if she claims her name."

And you still haven't explained why the AGoT nameclaim (which was a distraction, but led to no PRs outed) gave you that idea.

=====================

Oh, and Mina's attitude towards me is inching ever closer to the way she treated me last game ("ML, you played your role the worst ever" blah blah blah). And in that game, you know, she was scum and I was town. Still, she's definitely not the lynch today.

That's a bad example. In the mini, I genuinely thought you were the SK, because my buddy had had a tracking result on you. But that brings me to my next point:

I've been mulling over Mac's role claim for the last few days.

I think the fact that he claimed a link to Brienne isn't

that

big a towntell, both because Brienne was extremely likely to appear in the game and because his claim was an act of desperation. If he hadn't made up an inventive fakeclaim, he'd be screwed. But he responded very quickly to Cow's hint, AND paraphrased his role PM on the spot. Faraday couldn't have written his fake claim so quickly.

So clearly, if it's a fakeclaim, it's one that was prepared long in advance.

But what makes me suspect Mac is that the way he has played his role makes little sense for a town mason-hunter. And his justifications for his play makes it sound like he considered claiming but decided against it for bad reasons.

And that's my problem. I'm trying to untangle scummy play from illogical or suboptimal play. And it's hard, because different people should be held to different standards. For example, I'd crucify Mac or MoI had one of them quickhammered a doctor, or tried to confirm themselves by this logic:

I wish people would stop making analyses that rely on me being scum. I've already done everything short of word for word quoting my role PM and it's not a scum one.

And don't say that I'm overestimating you, because you're the one nominated for a Most Cunning Manipulator scummy.

Because if you are a town mason-hunter, then your strategy

fucking sucked

. This isn't like my irrational tunnel-vision in the mini, where I nitpicked over your kill targets. Targeting a soft-claimed Watcher (both because of the nightkill threat and because ignoring Cow's claim, the default assumption should be that your target is vanilla) is iffy--but hey, we all make mistakes. But not claiming because you inexplicably thought

scum would be told about a mason

? Being more concerned with keeping yourself and a random player alive and not looking like you were role-fishing than with trying to remove two players from the suspect pool, even after a cop and watcher claim?

So right now, I'm trying to decide how much common sense you have.

Had it not been for the tracking result on Mac, I'd think the last Lannister was diddin. Because dear God...90% of every post his slot has made oozes scumminess. He doesn't attack anyone unless at least three or four people have expressed a willingness to lynch that person. He claims to have a scum read on dana, but never once attacks him. He pushes Unsight as the lynch, but is then easily swayed onto Rifka. He active lurks. He's slow to answer questions, and rarely goes deep into his thought process. In any situation with potential for actual scumhunting, he seems to come up with the question with the most obvious role-fishing scum motivation behind it. ("Hey, Locke, who's close-to-confirmed town. Who did you investigate last night? Hey, Mina. What happened in the QT last night? Because I want you--the player of murky alignment--to tell us if the

confirmed town

player did anything suspicious.")

Macavitar hasn't done anything I can really pin on him, other than making some easy points and buddying to trusted players. If anything, he looks slightly more townish than he did in the mini. Unfortunately, MacavityLock always plays with the emotion of a dishrag, so he's hard to read. He did make great points on Mikujin and MoI. And when I reread his most recent posts, he's starting to seem open and genuinely frustrated. He's hovering in the "townish enough make me freak out over lynching him, but not townish enough to convince me that he's been framed" category.

I'd still like to look at diddin today. His reactions aren't sitting right with me. The initial "Yaaaaay, scum caught!" looked genuine, but he's not second-guessing himself. I don't see any endgame paranoia. diddin, who do you think is the last Lannister if it's not Mac? Who do you think is the last Greyjoy?

(But seriously, if Macavitar flips town, "pissed off" wouldn't begin to describe how I'd feel. I was crossing my fingers for a miracle. Our situation was dire, but thanks to the tracker, either we'd have one last chance to catch a Lannister or Greyjoy, or we could clear someone of being a member of one faction. But no.

You

had to come in, with your wacky "Mason-hunter with weird flavour who decided not to claim, targeted a nightkilled soft-claimed power role, and happened to be roleblocked on the night you targeted the player you were searching" claim, guaranteeing Cow's last tracking result was worse than wasted.)

==============
Macavitar? I'm going to ask you something very strange.

Please explain your in-depth reasoning for all of your night targets.

I know I agonize over night actions. I want every single passing whim that went through your head as you chose all four of your investigations.

For example, what made you decide to target xvart on N2? You never once mentioned having a town read on him before then. Who were your other N2 options? Who did you think of choosing early on D3 before Cow's reveal? Who else did you consider targeting on N3? Why Cow, and not Benmage? MacavityLock, who would you have targeted N3, had Cow been revealed as scum?

I'm serious. Your detailed thought process, in as many words as possible. Give me a glimpse into your mind.

Also, have you ever played in a game with a mason-hunter before?

===============

More points for diddin, Thor, and MagnaofIllusion, but I'll save them for tomorrow.

[RichardGHP]

Lol, I thought you had AC which malfunctioned. My mistake. (Where I come from, you don't have air-conditioners - you have heat-pumps because it's so Goddamned cold)
________________

I agree with Mina's point on Mac's roleclaim - I'm looking for a little more credible evidence than his actions during the day or choices during the night. I don't agree with either, to be frank, but I'm not hammering over them - at least not yet.

[RichardGHP]

EBWOP: Such evidence won't be found in this thread, so don't bother looking.

[CSL]

@ Mina: Poor gut read. Reiterating my statement earlier. "At least I got rid of the serial killer (before more votes ended up on me causing a town double-lynch)" (Parenthesis denotes added words)

That does not mean I don't find Unsight scummy. Once Macaviter flips (any), I'm voting Unsight.

[diddin]

If Mac flips town somehow I'll have to reread as he's my only big Lannister read right now.

Personally I find the biggest Greyjoy case being on Magna, but I'm not as sure as I am with Mac (which I am about 95% sure of). I still think Unsight is potential Greyjoy or hell, maybe even CSL.

[Macavitar]

WALL RESPONSE

That is not a townie thought process. You were worried it would be perceived as role-fishing? Your PM said

nothing

about whether Brienne was a power role, but you'd thought it was likely the scum would know about her? Come on, you'd played the mini. What did you expect? "Here's your flavour text, here are your scumbuddies, here are your abilities...oh, and by the way, there's a player called Brienne out there, who's a tracker. So nightkill her if she claims her name."

And you still haven't explained why the AGoT nameclaim (which was a distraction, but led to no PRs outed) gave you that idea.

OK, let me try to be very clear here. When I first saw my role, I did briefly consider doing the call for a Brienne name-claim. However after considering it, I came to the conclusion that if I were the mod and gave out some townie-confirming powers, I would also likely give out some sort of offset to the scum. Maybe that's just a roleblocker, but maybe it was something more. That something more may have been providing info to scum, or maybe it was something different. Whatever it was, I wanted to avoid it. I thought this offsetting was even more likely given that our mods had already seen the name-claim stuff in the mini. Again, that's how I would do it, if I were mod.

Additionally, people get very prickly whenever they see anything akin to rolefishing. Whether rightly or wrongly, you can't deny that people jump at that stuff no matter when or how it happens. And given that the guy who called for name-claim was scum in AGoT, doing so would probably put a "Lynch me" sign on me in this one.

Oh, and Mina's attitude towards me is inching ever closer to the way she treated me last game ("ML, you played your role the worst ever" blah blah blah). And in that game, you know, she was scum and I was town. Still, she's definitely not the lynch today.

That's a bad example. In the mini, I genuinely thought you were the SK, because my buddy had had a tracking result on you.

OK, I guess it's fair to read this as null.

I think the fact that he claimed a link to Brienne isn't

that

big a towntell, both because Brienne was extremely likely to appear in the game and because his claim was an act of desperation. If he hadn't made up an inventive fakeclaim, he'd be screwed. But he responded very quickly to Cow's hint, AND paraphrased his role PM on the spot. Faraday couldn't have written his fake claim so quickly.

So clearly, if it's a fakeclaim, it's one that was prepared long in advance.

I have a problem with the whole "Brienne was extremely likely to be in the game" thing. First of all, as you said, in ACoK she's a Wedge Antilles, not an R2. Due to my role, I knew that Brienne was in this game, but would I have known that if I were scum? There weren't that many un-name-claimed people left at that point, and as you said, it's unlikely that scum would have known what real names were left, what fake-claims the other scum had, etc.

Also, you're saying that this "fake-claim" would've been prepared well in advance, but then what if someone else had different information on me? Do you think I would've been able to adapt this "fake-claim" including flavor, power(s), and night target(s), which I "came up with" early, to whatever info was possible to have come out over the game?

Because if you are a town mason-hunter, then your strategy

fucking sucked

. This isn't like my irrational tunnel-vision in the mini, where I nitpicked over your kill targets. Targeting a soft-claimed Watcher (both because of the nightkill threat and because ignoring Cow's claim, the default assumption should be that your target is vanilla) is iffy--but hey, we all make mistakes. But not claiming because you inexplicably thought

scum would be told about a mason

? Being more concerned with keeping yourself and a random player alive and not looking like you were role-fishing than with trying to remove two players from the suspect pool, even after a cop and watcher claim?

So right now, I'm trying to decide how much common sense you have.

I explained why I didn't name-claim, or try to draw out a name-claim. I'll give you that my targeting last night was poor because Miku was a more obvious NK target than I realized, but default that Brienne is vanilla? I'm not going to give you that, that's out-guessing the mod.

Unfortunately, MacavityLock always plays with the emotion of a dishrag

Aw, thanks.

Macavitar? I'm going to ask you something very strange.

Please explain your in-depth reasoning for all of your night targets.

I know I agonize over night actions. I want every single passing whim that went through your head as you chose all four of your investigations.

For example, what made you decide to target xvart on N2? You never once mentioned having a town read on him before then. Who were your other N2 options? Who did you think of choosing early on D3 before Cow's reveal? Who else did you consider targeting on N3? Why Cow, and not Benmage? MacavityLock, who would you have targeted N3, had Cow been revealed as scum?

I'm serious. Your detailed thought process, in as many words as possible. Give me a glimpse into your mind.

That's not a strange question. Seems pretty reasonable to me. To reiterate my thought process, barring anything obvious, each night I was going to target the un-name-claimed player I thought to be towniest. During the Days, I was going to try to keep an eye out for breadcrumbs, but as I said before, that is not one of my strong suits. (I obviously should have done a lot more re-reading, especially on Day/Night 1. <sigh>)

On Day 1 of course, we pretty much had to state our towniest reads with the Hand of the King Raising. I didn't have that many strong townie reads on Day 2. I chose xvart mainly because he had been so gung-ho on flipped scum dana, and he hadn't done anything that particularly pinged my scum-dar. Axel, Mina, and DethHydra were outside possibilities, but I pretty much chose xvart right away. (Feel free to check, but I didn't name any town reads on Day 2.) Day 3 I (ML) was away until the very very end, and over the night Baltar and I hydra-discussed it. He agreed that we should be targeting the towniest people we could. There was some risk-reward discussion of whether we should be targeting someone who was definitely townie and therefore was the "likeliest" to be Brienne, or targeting someone unconfirmed so that we could get the most benefit by confirming someone else. If we had chosen to go with the latter strategy, we would have targeted Mina. I was more forgiving of Benmage than Baltar was, but even for me Benmage was neutral at best. Night 4, it was a similar choice: between someone who has "soft"-claimed a pro-town power (Miku) and someone whose role we knew nothing about (Mina).

Also, have you ever played in a game with a mason-hunter before?

Not as far as I can remember. I'm certain I've never played as one before.

----

I agree with Mina's point on Mac's roleclaim - I'm looking for a little more credible evidence than his actions during the day or choices during the night. I don't agree with either, to be frank, but I'm not hammering over them - at least not yet.

EBWOP: Such evidence won't be found in this thread, so don't bother looking.

So... you want me to provide evidence that doesn't exist?

Once Macaviter flips (any)

And you're willing to go so cavalierly into LYLO?

EBWOP reading the last few pages of Benmage's iso... he never said shit about Macavatar.

This is false, as I pointed out with his isos 129, 131, and 135. Oh, also, 138, which I missed earlier .

I think Macavitar should be the most worthy one [to get Candled].

I continue to read diddin as the likely last Lanny.

[RichardGHP]

No, Mac, I'm finding the evidence all by myself.

[Macavitar]

No, Mac, I'm finding the evidence all by myself.

I don't get what you're trying to say then.

[RichardGHP]

I'm just trying to give a little insight to my thought process.

[diddin]

Macavatar there is a problem with your voting that increases the case on you quite a lot in my opinion: even though you think I'm the last Lannister, you aren't voting me. As town you would want me lynched the most because if I flip Lannister, you're confirmed town. Instead, you're Greyjoy hunting.

[Macavitar]

I'm more confident that Magna is scum (and could be either Greyjoy or Lanny, unless I'm missing something) than that you're the last Lannister. (And you're definitely not Greyjoy, based on your confirmed name.)

It would be wonderful if we lynch the last Lanny so as to confirm me town. But it's more important for the

town

that we lynch scum at all.

[RichardGHP]

Reading over a few of ML's scum games, he seems to have a knack for endgaming - good fakeclaims play a big part in that. One game, as I recall, he revealed that he rewrote his claiming post several times before submission for maximum believability. I don't think that this mason-hunter claim would be a challenge at all, as long as one has a lateral mind and scum's best interests at hand. Daring enough to be a town role, relatively simple to fake as scum. Perfect.

I'm willing to hammer. With your permission, Mina?

[Macavitar]

Reading over a few of ML's scum games, he seems to have a knack for endgaming - good fakeclaims play a big part in that.

One game, as I recall, he revealed that he rewrote his claiming post several times before submission for maximum believability.

I don't think that this mason-hunter claim would be a challenge at all, as long as one has a lateral mind and scum's best interests at hand. Daring enough to be a town role, relatively simple to fake as scum. Perfect.

Which I certainly wouldn't have had time to do here.

[RichardGHP]

Indeed - you still could have prepared one (or been given one... lol) beforehand.

[Thor665]

I am really uneasy with the whole Macavitar lynch at the moment. I'm probably just spinning in WIFOM territory - but the Brienne claim still seems like a solid stretch for scum to have.

I cannot believe the mod would give scum a fakeclaim with a townie nameclaim in it - does anyone disagree with this?

I also am lost (fluffwise) as to the extent of the gambit here. If he's scum he had to do this claim himself. Maybe he felt a bit busted by hassadoiaurt's investigation and opted to go big or get lynched, but clearly after the Brienne claim he had to know that unless someone else claimed Brienne he was hosed. I've only heard Mina comment on the Brienne as likely role name concept. I'd like to hear anyone else with fluff thoughts chime in.

[RichardGHP]

Hasfdhsfhsgfds, what EXACTLY does your role PM say flavour-wise?

[hasdgfas]

Hasfdhsfhsgfds, what EXACTLY does your role PM say flavour-wise?

I can't tell you

exactly

, obviously.