Mini 1000: The Brave and the Beautiful (Game Over)

Kast · Post Post #1500 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 3:42 pm

@Fur-
If your claim is true, then please explain:
-Your previous claim to have only 2 shot investigation.
-Unless you think BV310 was killing himself (unlikely at best), then BV310 is the person who shot Kdub.
--If you think I am an SK, then why was there no kill from me on N3 AND N4?

-Please answer the questions I asked of you.
--Additionally, what changed between today and yesterday that makes you think I am an SK and not a vig?

Iecerint · Post Post #1501 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 3:47 pm

Fine by me, SSBF, not that it applies anymore.

Kast · Post Post #1502 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 3:47 pm

To be clear, I don't doubt Fur's claimed investigation result. I think it's entirely possible that BV310 either has his own shooting ability OR somehow copied my rapid fire ability. I also dropped hints that Kdub was likely Morrigan prior to him denying the claim yesterday, so I think it is reasonable that BV310 picked up on that and would have killed Kdub.

I do doubt his honesty in light of his previous (and apparently unnecessary) claim to have no more investigations. At this point, I also doubt his honesty about commuting, since his claimed reason for commuting was because he had no more investigations left. If he did have investigations left, then why did he claim commuting and claim no more investigations? In light of recent evidence, the claim is likely made in order to explain the no kill (otherwise MoI would have been cleared by Iecerint).

Kast · Post Post #1503 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 3:50 pm

All that said, today I'd support a lynch of Fur OR a no lynch (during which I'll use my delayed kill on Fur and he's welcome to aim for the cross kill).

Note: if I do get killed tonight, my delayed kill will be prevented, so remaining town would still have to lynch Fur and couldn't try covering bases by lynching someone else.

Iecerint · Post Post #1504 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 3:51 pm

You dropped hints that Kdub was Morrigan specifically? O_O

@ SSBF -- Let me put my card down before you vote. Play your card first, though.

Super Smash Bros. Fan · Post Post #1505 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 4:28 pm

All right, this is what it said in my Night 4 flavor that I consider important to share:

- It said that I hope that someone else will come along in the hallway to save me like in Night 2 (This should answer Kast's second question toward me).

- I get a look at a person who was standing by my door Night 4. She has tight jeans, a calf-skin coat, has short dark hair, and a tan skin. Looks like Alyx Vance, bv310's character.

- I investigated Furcolow. I went into his house, but he wasn't there. I went into his dresser and I found two important things. One was a map drawn in the inner corriders of the bunker and some locations on the map are marked with a X. Then I found one targetted directly at my room where I lived. I also found dual matching pistols in the second dresser. This should answer Kast's first question.

- I come back home to see two dead people. One person had two wings on either sides of the waist, two wings on her green hair. She had a black bodysuit that barely contained her body with her long legs covered by purple legging and long boots. Her eyes are rolled back into her head and her back of the head has been completely blown away. Looks like Morrigan, Kdub's character. The other person was the person by my house before I left to investigate Furcolow. She lied battered and torn on the floor with massive neck and head injuries that still flowed with blood. As she sacerficed her life for me, I will respect that by honoring her in her memory.

What I (And hopefully everyone else) gets out of this:

- Furcolow is scum, I am positive of this. I already had a very strong scum read on him and this shoots it all the way up to almost guarateeen scum read. He should be lynched today.

- bv310 is 99% confirmed town due to the flavor in my night action. I already thought he was likely town, but this only support my town read on him.

- Kast and Iecerint have very high chances of being town, despite almost no reference in my Night Action flavor.

- I was saved in some form of protection Night 2, either by a townie protecting me or a townie roleblocking Kast's attempt to kill me. I am leaning toward bv310 that saved me, although I am not really sure about this.

Once Iecerint claims his Night 4 action, I will definently vote Furcolow-scum.

Iecerint · Post Post #1506 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 5:37 pm

I tracked bv last night. Flavor summarized below (it's actual length is similar to what SSBF posted, but I've cut it down just to relevant stuff) --

I catch bv going out of her house and get a description of her clothing. She's carrying a handgun, so I am extra stealthy. I eventually find her pacing outside someone's room and speculate that she may be keeping the room safe. From here, I head home. After angsting about my sexual feelings for bv's character for a bit, I realize that she was guarding SSBF (I didn't recognize the room until then) and get super-jealous. Then I go to bed.

I was bluffing about having actual information on anyone. My guess is that Furco assumed I had tracked him to bv and was trying for damage control. I agree with Kast's assessment of Furc's claim -- it reneges his prior claim, etc.

But this begs the question -- Who killed Kdub?

I don't think mafia killed Kdub, because I think Kdub was the mafia roleblocker. So non-mafia must have killed Kdub.

I didn't kill Kdub.
SSBF didn't kill Kdub.
Furc killed bv.
Kdub presumably roleblocked someone, unless scum have 2 kills.
bv protected SSBF, so that part's no good.

So unless mafia stole Kast's ability and used it later (unlikely; any RB he got was probably Kdub's sexy RB),

Kast killed Kdub.

One point is that Furcscum means MoI was probably town. Otherwise, the lack of kill N2 isn't explained (unless bv was the one who protected successfully, which is unlikely, since he probably would've chimed in yesterday if his action would've helped me interpret whose action had stopped the kills N2, not to mention that targeting Muffin specifically would've been very low-probability...). Kast may be trying to push a lots-of-scum theory to minimize the prior probability that an SK is in the game.

SSBF, are you sure the "X" thing you found indicates that you were formerly a kill target? MoI remaining possible scum would open a reasonable doubt on Kast being town, but I'd still kinda doubt it. Another point in his favor is that no one appears to have been roleblocked, which is consistent with his claim of having been RB'd (even though it would appear that the RB didn't take or something). However, he didn't get sexy flavor as everyone else did, which is inconsistent.

If Kast is SK, we can only NL and hope for the crosskill. I can also protect again tonight -- even myself, since I can do that once this game and haven't done it yet -- so that improves the odds of town not dying given NL.

Do not vote NL yet.

This is @ Kast and SSBF, mostly, for obvious reasons. Have I messed up? Kast-SK Furc-scum looks parsimonious to me.

Kast · Post Post #1507 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 6:30 pm

@Iecerint-
I'm guessing the flavor about BV having a pistol probably means he had a vengeful bodyguard ability (or whatever it's called when the bodyguard kills the killer if he successfully stops a kill).

Mod also clarified that I shouldn't necessarily assume the voice telling me to stop was an ability targeting me; my not shooting is a result of my ability being unnecessary (the exact phrase sounds oddly similar to what BV said as the reason his targeting of Fur failed). To be clear, he is not confirming that I was not targeted by anyone, but given his answer to the question and separately stating my lack of taking a shot is due to not being necessary, I feel it's safe to assume I wasn't targeted by an actual roleblock.

I stated that Kdub was most likely the roleblocker here and hinted at Morrigan here though did not state her name directly. Actually, I was more explicit about the speculation in my private game notes (mod can attest post-game), though I wasn't sure if it was Morrigan or Lilith.

Anyway, now that the game is pretty much solved (solved from my PoV), the similarities with Avatar mafia are ridiculously huge (though we get way more info from the detailed flavor and I'm sorry for scum because that's really what saved us).

@SSBF-
-The map might also represent the people he has observed/investigated.
-I'm also guessing that the dual pistols found in Fur's room indicate Fur did not carry out the night kill.

@Fur-
It was EXTREMELY bad play on all of our parts for not pressing you to claim who you WOULD HAVE targeted if you weren't roleblocked on previous days. It's mindbogglingly inexplicable in hindsight, and it doesn't fit at all with what I'd normally expect from any townie ESPECIALLY not one who has had pressure on him for most of the game as you have had.

Please ask the mod about any map and/or pistols.

@Course of Action-
Best thing would be to just lynch Fur and we win. It gives the benefit that in case SSBF or Iecerint is scum, there's a final chance to stop them.

However, it'll take three votes to lynch Fur, and if Iecerint doesn't trust me, then we should be okay with a no lynch (I doubt Fur can double kill and I doubt there is a third party). No lynch will mean Fur has no option but to shoot me. If he does not shoot me, then he will die on Night 6 BEFORE he gets to kill anyone else.

Well, we'll actually end the game on Day 6 since I'll be dead, so Iec and SSBF can lynch Fur (assuming no special voting mechanics...unlikely since Millar had that).

Short of it is:
Iec and SSBF's claims don't change anything for me. If you guys feel safe with lynching Fur, then let's do that. If not let's No Lynch and I'll count on you two to lynch Fur tomorrow for the win.

@Fur-
You're doomed. How about surrendering instead of forcing us to play it out?

@SideNote-
Situations like this are when it would be so much nicer if we could just endgame caught scum instead of being forced to play it out and letting scum stall.

Iecerint · Post Post #1508 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 6:47 pm

Oh, so you're positing that bv was a vengeful bodyguard? That fits, namely because it keeps him from being redundant with my role.

However, if that's the case, bv can't explain the lack of kill N2 (since he would have died). Not that this is a huge deal -- it'd mean that MoI was town and the scumteam was millar-Kdub-Furc, which isn't unreasonable. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Iecerint · Post Post #1509 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 6:49 pm

New mysteries given that:

1. If Kdub is the one who did the kill last night...why not before?
2. If Kdub targeted bv last night rather than Furc, why did Furc freak out like that?

Kast · Post Post #1510 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 7:34 pm

Spoiler: Solved Game

Updated my speculations/solution to the game. I think I got everything, though it's possible I missed stuff.

Answers to your questions contained within, though to make it easier:
-The "lack" of [my] kill N2 is the only hole I see in this solution. It's solved if MoI's thief ability has a jailkeeper aspect that he doesn't know about OR if RC is including some hidden mechanic interactions (what I'm currently suspecting) such as the cancelling my Focus Fire when it is redundant, and canceling BV's bodyguard on Fur when it was unnecessary.
-He probably did kill before; the kill on Ythan is probably his doing (guessing Queen of Blades shares a kill method with Morrigan, and thus two mafia kill with scratched & torn, one kills with shot, and two towns kill with shot). I'm Kdub's kill is an either kill OR use the RB, so N1 and N3 were using RB and N2 and N4 were using Kdub.
-He probably investigated BV and they let Kdub try to kill SSBF.

Kast · Post Post #1511 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 7:37 pm

EBWOP:
-The "lack" of [my] kill N2 is the only hole I see in this solution. It's solved if MoI's thief ability has a jailkeeper aspect that he doesn't know about OR if RC is including some hidden mechanic interactions (what I'm currently suspecting) such as the cancelling my Focus Fire when it is redundant, and canceling BV's bodyguard on Fur when it was unnecessary.

This case would be my kill fails if the target is out doing whatever SSBF was doing at that time.

-He

[Kdub]

probably did kill before; the kill on Ythan is probably his

[Kdub's]

doing (guessing Queen of Blades shares a kill method with Morrigan, and thus two mafia kill with scratched & torn, one kills with shot, and two towns kill with shot). I'm

[guessing]

Kdub's kill is an either kill OR use the RB, so N1 and N3 were using RB and N2 and N4 were using Kdub.
-He

[Fur]

probably investigated BV and they let Kdub try to kill SSBF.

Iecerint · Post Post #1512 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 7:44 pm

If Kdub killed before, that would imply that Kdub could both kill and RB every day, which isn't quite normative, but isn't impossible. BUT -- if that WAS the case, why didn't he roleblock last night?

Is there evidence of hidden mechanic interaction canceling outside of your claim that that's what happened to your kill last night? I'm not sure what you mean by the BV->Fur bodyguard thing....

Edit: Uh, that didn't help. You targeted Kdub, not SSBF. What does SSBF have to do with anything?

Iecerint · Post Post #1513 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 7:47 pm

(The smell of evil business => Morrigan framing effects totally makes sense, though.)

Furcolow · Post Post #1514 (ISO) » Tue Aug 31, 2010 9:46 pm

I did not kill bv
if you think that you are an idiot

Kast · Post Post #1515 (ISO) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 7:01 am

@Iec-
-As I said, I think Kdub can either kill OR roleblock. On N1 and N3, he obviously roleblocked and probably didn't kill. On N2 and N4 he probably killed INSTEAD OF roleblocking.
-BV claimed that his ability on N1 failed due to being unnecessary. This could be a sign that mod is using some non-standard/hidden role mechanics (it could also mean MoI's Thief ability protects his target without him knowing).

2. If Kdub targeted bv last night rather than Furc, why did Furc freak out like that?

-He [Fur] probably investigated BV and they let Kdub try to kill SSBF.

Fur probably targeted BV. Kdub probably targeted SSBF. Fur is probably going "WTF!?!" that Kdub's target (SSBF) didn't die, and instead BV died with Kdub's kill flavor. If he got tracked to BV he's going to be in hot water regardless of whether he actually tried killing BV or was using a non-kill but BV died anyway.

For now gonna

Vote: Fur

. If you guys want to do a no lynch instead, then say so and I'll switch, but it sounds like SSBF knows what's what, so it'll probably just be Iec's call.

ReaperCharlie · Post Post #1516 (ISO) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 7:13 am

The Brave and the Beautiful - Vote Count 5.1

Furcolow [1] - Kast
Not Voting [3] - Iecerint, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Furcolow

With 4 alive, it is 3 to lynch.

The deadline is Tuesday, September 21 at 11:30 pm ET.

Furcolow · Post Post #1517 (ISO) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 9:04 am

i was suspicious of shotty being an SK
i do not think bv310 did the kill, as having re-read the flavor it was me "speculating", so i think RC is putting a cog in my wheels with that. Him reading "bodyguard weekly" makes me believe he was protown and on our side.

This makes me lead to the conclusion MoI and Kdub were perhaps the scum, with Kast/shotty being SK

vote: kast

under that assumption. he voted me after i voiced my suspicions, so he is attacking me acting like i attacked bv310 when i will share ANY of the flavor i got out of the rolecheck at ANY time because I am town

I feel like the 2 kills came from Kast and bv310/kdub, with kast being an SK
that is my take on how this game has played out

either kdub was the last scum, or kdub/millar/Kast with possibly bv310 as an sk
or bv310 was the last scum with bv310/millar/moi as a scum team with kast as an sk

those are the ONLY way the kills make sense to me

@Mod: may i share the flavor I got from my check?

Kast · Post Post #1518 (ISO) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 9:17 am

@Fur-

so he is attacking me acting like i attacked bv310

Explain this. What attack on BV310 are you referring to?

i will share ANY of the flavor i got out of the rolecheck at ANY time because I am town

Your flavor has been requested since D2 and you still have barely shared any of it. I didn't pursue much on D4 because I strongly thought MoI was scum. Since you're offering, then please deliver on your claim. Share all the flavor you have from every day/night (just like everyone else has done).

Furcolow · Post Post #1519 (ISO) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 9:19 am

i can tell you from memory what has happened
and i am saying that I was heavily thinking bv310/moi were a scumteam
you are attacking me like that with no reasoning, because you are an sk, and you want a mislynch

Kast · Post Post #1520 (ISO) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 9:42 am

@Fur-
-Your memory doesn't completely match up with your posts; aside from MoI and BV, why did you abandon all your other beliefs? D4 you were "sure" that Kast was town vig, MoI was scum, and one of {BV310, Kdub, or Iecerint} was MoI's scum buddy.

Assuming you really believed that at the time, then why is it inconceivable for BV310 to be a town bodyguard and one of Kdub/Iecerint being the last scum? Your current suspicion and OMGUS vote mark a complete dropping of everything you've been stating and only came after and in direct response to me sharing my thoughts and pointing you out as probable scum.

--If you really believe I am an SK and the only remaining scum, then why not go for a no lynch to prove it?

You have not answered the questions:
-Share your Night Action Targets and Reasons:
--Who did you target on N1 and why?
--Who did you target on N2 and why?
--Why did you target BV310 on N4?
-How did investigate BV310 since you already claimed you used up your 2 shot investigation?
--Why did you hide on N3 instead of investigating?

-Flavor:
--Share ALL your flavor that you have received since the game began. Please paraphrase (unless you want to get mod killed).

Kast · Post Post #1521 (ISO) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 9:57 am

What attack on BV310 are you referring to?

i am saying that I was heavily thinking bv310/moi were a scumteam
you are attacking me like that with no reasoning, because you are an sk, and you want a mislynch

Also, I really can't understand you. This is what I think you are saying, correct me if it is wrong:

1) You are comparing my attack on you to your attack on BV310 on D4.
1.1) You are claiming that your attack on BV310 was based on no reasoning, instead it was based on (gut) heavily thinking BV/MoI were a scum team.
1.2) You are claiming that my attack on you is similarly based on no reasoning, instead it is based on wanting a mislynch.

Assuming that is correct, here are my responses:
1) Are you claiming that you were scummy when you attacked BV310? If you were not scummy, then why would someone else doing the same thing be scummy? Also, I posted all the reasoning behind my thoughts of you as the last mafia. You might not realize, but if you click the button next to the spoiler, it reveals all the text that I wrote inside the spoiler. So, I disagree that my attack on you is anything at all like your attack on BV.
1.1) Are you claiming your attack on BV310 was weak and that you knew it was weak? I don't know how else to read this.
1.2) Firstly, wanting a mislynch and providing reasoning are not mutually exclusive. Secondly, I provided a lot of explanation of my reasons. If you disagree with them, then say so. Disagreeing with a reason does not mean there was no reason. If you missed them, try clicking the "SHOW" button and reading, OR just read the summary of my thoughts.

Iecerint · Post Post #1522 (ISO) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:51 am

I'm just being careful.

I mis-remembered that "scratched to death" or whatever happened differently than it did. I assume the claimed sexy-flavored RBs happened only and on all of the off-nights?

Kast · Post Post #1523 (ISO) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 11:27 am

@Iec-
The claimed sexy-flavor RBs happened on N1 to Robo and N3 to Muffin (SSBF).

Fur has also claimed that it happened to him on N2. Sort of. The others claimed they had visits in their dreams (ie. succubus). Fur claimed a straight out visit with no mention of dreams. If Fur is scum with Kdub, then he was lying about the roleblock to cover for his ally.

Super Smash Bros. Fan · Post Post #1524 (ISO) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 11:35 am

Iecerint wrote:SSBF, are you sure the "X" thing you found indicates that you were formerly a kill target?

I can't say I'm completely sure about this, but based off my Night 4 Flavor, I think it is likely that I was a kill target and that bv310 was a bodyguard who protected me during the Night so I could go and perform my Night Actions.

Iecerint wrote:This is @ Kast and SSBF, mostly, for obvious reasons. Have I messed up? Kast-SK Furc-scum looks parsimonious to me.

At this rate, I think that there is only one anti-town player left in this game and that anti-town player (Or more specifically, scum) is Furcolow. Kast being a SK looks pretty unlikely at this point.

Furcolow wrote:@Mod: may i share the flavor I got from my check?

Why is it necessary to ask mod permission to share your flavor as long as you paraphrase to where you don't get mod-killed for it?

As for either a Furcolow lynch or a No Lynch, I'll go with lynching Furcolow today. Nothing he has said has changed my mind about him being scum and he is caught scum. So let's put out the problem now before it's too late.

Vote: Furcolow