Open 239 - C9++

[Ythill]

Good catch, Maf. Hey Fishy, if you don't know which it is, why is your vote parked on a player who is in a claim-or-die situation?

an attempt to win the argument without caring about the truth

My point exactly. The prime motivator for any player in Unsight's position is going to be avoiding the noose. I'm not saying the underhanded defenses clear him, but that they are null and therefore it's odd to see you adding them as fuel to the fire.

[Fishythefish]

I think that even if a player attempting to avoid the noose, scum are much more likely to try to win an argument without really caring about the case on them or the players attacking them. As a townie, you are always trying to evaluate the cases on you and the players who are offering them - even when threatened with an imminent lynch. As scum, your only priority here would be to avoid being lynched, and I think that's more likely to produce the kind of defence Unsight is giving.

As for why my vote is on Unsight - I said that there are two explanations for the poor quality of his defence, one of which is a scumtell and one of which is a nulltell. There's some chance of it being each, so overall that makes it a weak scumtell. But it's not important to my reasons for voting him - even if I considered a defence like that a total nulltell, I would be voting him based on the other reasons I've given - he's one of only two decent candidates for scum, and some of his votes and reasons for them don't make much sense. He was very under-the-radar on D1, and my other favoured candidate (drmy) doesn't look as bad as he did now I've looked at his meta.

[Unsight]

Oh hey, look, never said it.

I'm readying Thor's hammer Unsight. It's time to claim.

I'm a Townie (aka Vanilla Townsfolk).

I don't feel like devoting an hour of my time tonight to a town that will probably just mislynch me anyway.

If I'm alive tomorrow then great, if not then good luck town (except nhammen who I hope gets shot tonight twice by the mafia and SK for being stupidly wrong in his reads two games in a row).

[nhammen]

Just to let everyone know, I really am believing that Unsight's AtE is honest (although in the last game mentioned my reads were not very bad at all, just a little bad). It is entirely possible that he is doing this because I did it as Town, but I don't think so. I'm buying it.

Fishy's reaction also makes me feel like he should

really

be today's lynch. I know I have said it might be confirmation bias on my part, but I really think he should be.

In fact, I am going to do something here:
VOTE: Fishy

I am very strapped for time for the weekdays, but hopefully will have much more time on weekends.

[Ythill]

Meh. Unsight's a better play but I'm not opposed to a Fishy lynch.

[AGar]

I can get behind Fishy lynch as well.

For the time being, though

VOTE: Unsight

It still serves a purpose.

[Fishythefish]

What? What on earth have I said that people find so scummy?

1. I think Unsight's reaction to being attacked is really bad (see the first three bullet points of post 569) - at least in the sense that he's very wrong.
2. I think that can come from someone who isn't reading and thinking about the case properly, or it can come from someone who doesn't care at all about the merits of the case as long as they don't get lynched.
3. I think the first explanation can come from town or scum equally, and the second explanation comes more from scum.
4. This means that Unsight's play is

more likely

from a scum slot than a town slot; so it's a scumtell, though not a particularly strong one.
5. This is not why I'm voting Unsight.

In 569, I also point out some things I do think are scumtells in Unsight's play. Namely:
- Unsight saying that he found my 425 a serious SKslip, when he already suspected me, and then dropping it completely.
- Unsight claiming that his scumread on me came from a Ythill-me pairing, when that makes little sense given his play at the time.
- A change of read on Ythill for no obvious reason just when Ythill became a more popular suspect and started attacking him.

Where is the problem in this?

[Ythill]

To clarify, I do think that you adding weak fuel to the fire of a wagon @ L-1 with a hammer waiting is mildly scummy, but that's not why I said I'd be okay with your lynch. It has much more to do with the results of my earlier analyses. I think Unsight is the best lynch because tells indicate that he could be mafia or SK and none suggest that he's town. You, on the other hand, are more likley to be mafia than he is, and there are

very few

things suggesting you are town.

[Fishythefish]

OK.

[Ythill]

Really? Just... ok?

[Mafuyu]

Just to let everyone know, I really am believing that Unsight's AtE is honest (although in the last game mentioned my reads were not very bad at all, just a little bad). It is entirely possible that he is doing this because I did it as Town, but I don't think so. I'm buying it.

Fishy's reaction also makes me feel like he should

really

be today's lynch. I know I have said it might be confirmation bias on my part, but I really think he should be.

In fact, I am going to do something here:
VOTE: Fishy

I am very strapped for time for the weekdays, but hopefully will have much more time on weekends.

Unvote

VOTE: Fishy

He's switched from excessively defensive (noting Mafuyu's last o.O post) during a flipfloppable wagon moment to just apathetic in this latest one.

[Fishythefish]

@Ythill: yes, actually. I understand your stances on Unsight and me quite thoroughly, and your position is reasonable. I don't think I was adding weak fuel to Unsight's fire particularly, but you can see my explanations for that and judge them for yourself. Your reasons for thinking I'm mafia are largely based on the play of NS and particularly Andrius, so there's little I can say about them. There are very few decent candidates for mafia, and I acknowledge that I'm one of them from other people's point of view (along, IMO, with drmy and Unsight in that order). The problems I've had with your positions (ruling out drmy is the one that springs to mind) I've brought up before. To whatever extent you think I'm scummy on and individual basis for my D1 actions, we've argued to death.

@Mafuyu: I don't think I'm being apathetic here at all - I'm certainly not trying to be. I'd really like to know what it is that I've done that you think is scummy. All in all, I'm finding it very, very difficult to defend here. Look at people's reasons for voting me, or suspecting me. What is there that I could be defending? I'm quite happy to explain any part of my play in this game, and answer anything I can sensibly answer.

I'd like to have as much opportunity as possible to avert a wagon on me, which would be a mistake. I'd really like full explanations of why people think I'm scum. What do you mean by me being "excessively defensive" (I have to say I don't really understand your o.O post)?

To make my point, In the next post, I'm going to do a quote wall of everything that's been said about me negatively on day 2. I'm leaving out Ythill - his reasoning for thinking I'm mafia I discuss above. Look for things that it's possible for someone to respond to, ever, and if you find any, do tell me.

There is clearly a reasonably strong lynch-Fishy movement, and we need to have this discussion as quickly as possible. There isn't much time before deadline, and so I urge people to accelerate the process of deciding whether they want to lynch me, asking me questions,

making a damn case

etc..

[Fishythefish]

Quote wall of negative comments on me (point out if I've missed any)

I'm going to be limited to a post every other day for a week or so. One of our idiot minimum wagers just got fired and I have to pick up some of the slack, unfortunately.

If people are following Ythill's line of thought, then the choice should be down to me or FTF. Fate vs. Ythill is painfully obvious to be town-on-town. Neither is seeing it because they're clouded.

I'm thinking Unsight is more likely to be the SK, while FTF for scum. I don't see any other option for scum, while I think drmy is just a VI at this point.

VOTE: Fishythefish

(Nothing to reply to - I asked him a little later why he was ruling out Unsight and drmy)

FTF came in and echo'd Ythill's VC analysis, didn't add anything in regards to finding

scum

(as in, mafia. Not SK), and pointed the SK finger at drmy.

Both of these players are getting away with murder right now, and you two are too busy arguing who is more educated in English (it's me, boneheads) and why confirmation bias is scummy (hint hint - even so, it's not. If anything, it HAS to be town-aligned).

(Replied to this - the post he refers to was a brief post, when I had poor access, which acknowledged that I needed to post more content soon)

Ok guys I'm not a serial killer.
Any way who's up for thinking that the scum team is ythil, fish, and fate?
it would makes sense because ythil and fate are trying to bus each other, while bussing fishy. And when fidhy flips scum, they will seem town that was confused about each other, but right about fishy

Sorry dude I was ignorant of the situation, since there has to be an SK and only one Scum left I think Ythil is the scum, and I'm unsure of the SK but if I had to pick I think it would be Fishy

(Nothing to respond to)

FMPOV, the pool of potential mafiosi is Unsight, Agar, drmy, Ythill, Fate. Looking at the isos of:

Good job listing every living player in the game save yourself and the two confirmed masons.

Andrius

I agree with Ythill that Andrius’s only scumlist (Maf, Agar, NS) is pretty likely to only have one of his buddies in it.

NS flipped scum. Hurdur.

(Not sure if these are points against me. At any rate, I replied to them, explaining what seem to have been misunderstandings by Agar.)

Vote Fish

(I asked him why)

Fish I've thought you were scum for a long time

(I said he'd never said why)

I have a little bit actually

(Since this is just not true, I asked him to tell me again)

This is just a first thoughts/things to do post.

I think the most compelling bit of Ythill's wagon analysis, by far, is the bit about NS and Andrius both failing to hop on the drmy wagon, while both positioning themselves to do so. This really points to Fate or Agar (or, from other people's POVs, me) as their scumbuddy.

drmy, meanwhile, is likely to be the SK. For scumminess with no connections to the mafia.

Rereading all those people is my top priority.

So let me get this straight: You saw that both of the scum refused to get on shooty's wagon, and then say that there are no connections? You saw the wagon analysis, but shotty cannot possibly be a scumpartner? Why is the only scum possibility for shotty an SK? Because you already know who the last mafia is?

(I've responded to this, which is in fact a point against me. I was being rather stupid and tunnelled on Andrius and NS supporting the drmy wagon without voting because they wanted to egg it on and see where it went; when Ythill pointed out the alternative reason I facepalmed)

BTW, before 473, I have Fishy as pretty much the only possible Mafia, and a few others are among the possibilities for SK.

(Nothing to respond to)

Ythill's 473:
ISO of NS shows no change in Fishy and AGar, and scumtells from Unsight. I keep thinking that what he sees from Fishy should be viewed more scummily, but maybe I am getting caught up in Confirmation Bias due to the fact that I saw a serious mafia tell from Fishy. And I still am suspicious of Unsight as well. SO I shouldn't be thinking like this.
ISO of Andrius shows exactly what I think. Fishy is most likely partner, with Unsight in second.

I shouldn't have said that the only possibility was Fishy earlier. That was probably Confirmation Bias. But I can't shake it. So I'll say that the last mafia is most likely between Fishy and Unsight. With luck, that pair includes the SK as well. Still believe that Fishy is almost definitely the last mafia though.

(Nothing to respond to)

FTF has slid under the radar here. Worth noting, since the pressure also alleviated.

(I responded to this. I had a flurry of activity while I was rereading day 1 in the light of the flips, and then there wasn't very much to say)

Then I posted 569. This, and the subsequent posts has brought me a lot of heat for no reason that I can see. In 569, I pointed out three strawmen from Unsight - without particularly commenting on how scummy they were. TBH, I can't recall my precise state of mind when I made the post - I'm sure I was making the connection "crap defence = scummy" in my head on some level, but I'm not sure how explicit is was or how much I'd thought it through. Then I make some points on Unsight, and I think they are pretty good points. How I've moved in his suspicions in relation to me "SKslip" is not credible; his thinking I'm scummy for a link to Ythill

while Ythill is leading a wagon on me

but not commenting on Ythill at all at the same time is not credible; his explanations for his day 1 play are not good enough; his read on Ythill switched with no explanation exactly when Ythill attacked him and became a popular target.

Here's the reaction to that post:

Fishy is framing some of Unsight's underhanded defenses as scumplay, which is not entirely accurate. Though I agree that Unsight is using a few dirty tricks, I think such things are a product of pressure rather than alignment. The last point that Fishy gave sounds valid though.

No pre-claim hammers please.

And, to clarify, I don't really know which it is here.

o.O

Okay..

Good catch, Maf. Hey Fishy, if you don't know which it is, why is your vote parked on a player who is in a claim-or-die situation?

an attempt to win the argument without caring about the truth

My point exactly. The prime motivator for any player in Unsight's position is going to be avoiding the noose. I'm not saying the underhanded defenses clear him, but that they are null and therefore it's odd to see you adding them as fuel to the fire.

Fishy's reaction also makes me feel like he should

really

be today's lynch. I know I have said it might be confirmation bias on my part, but I really think he should be.

In fact, I am going to do something here:
VOTE: Fishy

Meh. Unsight's a better play but I'm not opposed to a Fishy lynch.

To clarify, I do think that you adding weak fuel to the fire of a wagon @ L-1 with a hammer waiting is mildly scummy, but that's not why I said I'd be okay with your lynch. It has much more to do with the results of my earlier analyses. I think Unsight is the best lynch because tells indicate that he could be mafia or SK and none suggest that he's town. You, on the other hand, are more likley to be mafia than he is, and there are

very few

things suggesting you are town.

I think all the comments following my 569 are completely responded to in 581. That is as full an explanation as I can give in my thoughts in posting 569, and noone has questioned it or commented on it.

Other than what amounts to PoE on mafia candidates (and right now there is

no

reason to eliminate shotty or Unsight), I've seen exactly one point against me, which is nhammen's one on my thoughts on Andrius and NS not voting drmy. That was pretty fail of me, and I can see where he's coming from, although I think the particular slip he accuses me of (calling drmy the SK because I know who the last scum is) makes little sense in the context of my saying who I thought the other scum was on the previous line. People also seem to find my reaction to Unsight's wagon scummy - I've explained that reaction fully, and can't see anything more to say on it.

I feel there's a fairly strong underlying "Fishy is scum" vibe in this game, which AFAIC isn't connected to anything I've actually done.

[Ythill]

Here's the reaction to that post:

...

Meh. Unsight's a better play but I'm not opposed to a Fishy lynch.

To be fair, this was more a reaction to nham's vote change than to your post.

In case it hasn't been clear, my lynch preferences, in order, are Unsight, Fishy, & Fate. I will not be voting for anyone else. We may have lost mason approval for the Unsight lynch, which is enough for me to compromise. However, it seems like the bloc majority is against a Fate lynch and I'm noting that we're missing the crucial fifth vote on Fishy.

[Fishythefish]

Right now, there are clearly only two people who have any chance of being lynched. Me and Unsight. The next most popular candidate is Ythill, and apart from the three people who like him for scum there's absolutely no interest in his lynch. A vote anywhere else is a totally wasted vote.

People who are happier to lynch Unsight: me, Ythill, Agar (I think?)
People who are happier to lynch me: nhammen, maf, Unsight, probably drmy (?)
People who definitely need to decide asap: Fate

I'm hopeful I can win the masons back - I think nhammen is tunnelling on me based on one reason, and I just don't know why Maf is voting me - but if that doesn't happen soon I'm going to have to claim, which I'd rather not do. This isn't helped by the fact that I might have no access on Friday.

[Fate]

Forgot to post it in this game but something happened real life that really took the wind out of my sails motivation wise.

I'm having trouble getting into this game because it is so out of my control. I'm used to people sheeping me and being a cornerstone of discussion, but in this game Ythill is sexier than me and masons are more confirmed town than me. So I make the necessary wagons happen the way I want them to for my reads.


That said if I had to choose I'm going with Unsight. Besides my Yosarian2 alt status forcing me to lynch all VTs, his play this game has been starkly at odds from the last time we played together, in which he didn't cease tunneling me no matter how much suspicion was brought against him. This was probably due to a playstyle difference that we had, but I notice this game he didn't even seem to suspect me D1 when it wasn't really safe to do so, but the second Ythill came out with a vote on me today he joined that wagon safely.

Unvote:
Vote: Unsight

[drmyshottyizsik]

unvote
vpte unsight

If he hasnt been lynched by monday I'll give my case
@ mod V/LA untill onday, I have surgery

[Fate]

I think you just hammered him so if you could give a quick rundown of your case ASAP that would be cool....

[Unsight]

Mislynch ahoy. Good job town, you fucked up.

I forgive nhammen though. <3

[drmyshottyizsik]

oh shit sorry i thought that was L-1. Fuck sorry, I would but im seriously about to go to surgery, plus i would mainly just re word what others have said

[Fate]

So you admit you don't have your own personal case on him you would just latch on to others...

At least I have one Fate sheep this game? His alignment? TBD.

[Fate]

Mislynch ahoy. Good job town, you fucked up.

I forgive nhammen though. <3

We'll see what Ythan says. I'm counting votes

[Mafuyu]

Oh dear.

No talking about which Mason might die tonight. Period. Keep zip.

[drmyshottyizsik]

I have a case, and i would put a different spin on things then some poeple did... are you sure I hammerd?

[Mafuyu]

Mafuyu's vote was L-1. Mafuyu unvoted, thus L-2. Two votes followed.

So yes.