Ladies Night -- Game Over

[UncertainKitten]

I'm slightly opposed to lynching before replacement, but not a whole lot really. I guess I'd like to get more information from that player slot. If they are town, the replacement might save themselves. If they are scum, they might leave behind connections that can be used. Paws has given us absolutely nothing in either direction.

[esuriospiritus]

Vote: Paws/replacement

You must unvote before voting someone else.

This vote brought to you by an incredulous looking old!Spock. Because this is how I will feel if Paws flips town.



Still working on that iso post.

[esuriospiritus]

Paws has given us absolutely nothing in either direction.

Irrelevant.

Paws

hasn't.

Other people

have in relation to Paws. Hold that thought, mmkay.

[UncertainKitten]

esurio brings up a good point I overlooked. I am now officially completely neutral on the Paws thing. I think that a replacement might provide more information, but I'm not really opposed to her lynch whatsoever.

[esuriospiritus]

Okay. For this little experiment, let's pretend for the sake of argument that Paws has already flipped scum (because there's ample enough evidence there right now that, barring a SPECTACULAR improvement from the replacement, Paws slot is scum).

Now, before I do any of this, yes, I realize connecting players before anyone's even flipped is, generally speaking, a bad idea. However, even if Paws were to somehow get nuked and flip town right fucking now, I don't think this connection-analysis is for naught.

So.

CONNECTIONS TO PAWS AS OF POST 223.

Apo/Haylen

- apo didn't even mention paws at all until her last post. I initially got a town impression off of this post, but noticing it in this context gives me pause. I kind of get the impression upon re-reading this post that it's possible Paws and Apo are scumbuddies. The total lack of mentioning Paws prior to this post (by which time Paws already had 3 other votes on her and a few other people -- like me -- stating her scumminess but not outright voting her) and then suddenly jumping on the wagon to put Paws at L-3. There's also this, which in hindsight bothers me (although I admit I might just be nitpicking here): "One thing I did notice is your subtle defense of Paws." Apo, talking about Haylen. Really, there was nothing subtle about Haylen's defense of Paws. Nothing subtle about it at all. Furthermore, Haylen really came across to me as a self-appointed Guardian of the Newbie. She is active with the newbie section of the site, and it totally makes sense to me that she would be hesitant to pounce on a lurkernewb compared to the rest of us. In that context, Apo pairing the two of them is... bothersome. Speaking of Haylen, Haylen placing a vote on Paws could be the thing that made Paws finally give up and request replacement. (This seems to me to be not a reflection on Haylen's alignment, but worth mentioning anyway to let other people make of that theory what they will. I'd imagine having the closest thing to a defender end up voting you and feeling your lynch is imminent has got to make a newbscum crack.) Haylen's isos 24-27 seem genuine to me. DGB's observation to expect to find scum in one of camn, sotty, or haylen due to those being Paws' suspects applies, though.

camn

- is town if paws is scum, barring a well-played bus (but I doubt that's the case). DGB's observation to expect to find scum in one of camn, sotty, or haylen due to those being Paws' suspects applies, though.

cepi

is null for obvious reasons. So is

ojanen

.

chau

... surprised me, actually. I think if Paws is scum than chau is... not cleared, certainly, but

probably

not scum. Which is probably the best thing I've had to say about her all game Chau's aggressiveness toward Paws seems to fit her aggressiveness toward everything and everyone else in this game (for the most part), which is probably a point in her favour. Maybe.

DeeGeeBee

are Borg

is town. Resistance is futile. Paws-related analysis is irrelevant.

esurio[/i] is town. You want to argue otherwise, you're going to have to do your own gorram homework.

Fenchurch

is null due to lack of content, but defense of Paws seems genuine if likely misguided. (If paws is town, could be getting on the correct side of a popular mislynch. Camn mentioning something like this earlier reminded me this was actually possible, lawl.)

Hoopla

is null. She just hasn't said enough.

S_B

... er, hasn't posted pretty much anything about Paws, but unlike the above posters has actually been here enough to have imo. Some scumpoints awarded for that if Paws flips scum.

sotty

- Coaching suspicions in iso 7 still apply. DGB's observation to expect to find scum in one of camn, sotty, or haylen due to those being Paws' suspects applies. Not looking good for sotty if Paws flips scum.

sucrose

also initially dissented on the Paws wagon. Sucrose's observation about UK's reaction to Paws is

perhaps noteworthy, but I haven't read UK's iso yet soooo....

very likely unfounded, upon looking at UK's iso.

UK

- "Not particularly one I disagree with, but not particularly one I feel will lead to scum." This is a sentiment that, IIRC, I agreed with at the time (I think this was about the time I said something about the paws wagon seeming too easy). Being resistant to lynching before the replacement comes in at least comes across as a legit townie concern. Slight town points.

----

Overall I don't think this has changed a hell of a lot on my own personal reads of people. Chau is a little bit lower on my scumlist, Apo a little bit higher. Mostly I think this post will be good to look back after a Paws flip -- which I think is inevitably soon at this point.

[esuriospiritus]

broken tag fail, argh. I knew I should have previewed it. :<

[Paws]

VOTE: Paws
I did not beg to be in.
I have a life.
I've been busy with school.
After Sotty's newbie game I'm gone. I should've listened when others told me not to play here.. Cause your playstyles suck.

Peace out.

Please do not make any more posts.

[Sucrose]

I'm just going to ignore that last post there.

Ahem, I see no reason not to wait to listen to the replacement's spiel. The worst thing that could possibly happen is if the replacement is an incredibly charismatic scum who bowls over the town with their false towniess and causes that playerslot to never be lynched. I put the odds of that at about 1%. If the playerslot is scum, we can get more wagon analysis off of it, and see where the new player jumps. In the unlikely event that it's town, we can get some more reads off of it.

[camn]

UNVOTE
VOTE PAWS

@esurio:

as scum.. if someone has a town-read on someone.. either it is:
1)correct, in which case protesting it is scummy on flip, or
2)incorrect, in which case someone is protecting your partner for you.

[Sucrose]

.....aand, I completely forgot we had bankable deadlines. Well, I still thinks it's a little more beneficial to hear what the replacement says, unless RedCoyote is having trouble finding someone.

[Sucrose]

Ninja'd.

Never mind then...

[RedCoyote]

I'm waiting to hear back on the PMs I sent out for replacements. I'm not counting Paws' self-vote. I'm of the opinion that once someone asks to replace out, they are no longer part of the game. If the players want to go ahead with this lynch, they must do so without Paws' self-vote (although what the replacement does is their business).

---

Vote Count 1.5

• Paws

  (6) (Sotty7 -

  camn

  - UncertainKitten - Apokalyptika - Haylen - DrippingGoofball - camn)
  
  
  Apokalyptika
  (2) (cepi - Fenchurch -

  camn

  )
  
  
  camn
  (1) (Snow_Bunny -

  Haylen

  )
  
  
  Snow_Bunny
  (1) (chauchaudotcom)
  
  
  UncertainKitten
  (1) (Sucrose)
  
  
  Sucrose
  (1) (Hoopla)
  
  
  chauchaudotcom
  (1) (esuriospiritus)
  
  
  Not Voting
  (2) (Ojanen - Paws -

  Fenchurch

  -

  DrippingGoofball

  -

  camn

  )

With fifteen alive, it takes eight to lynch.
Current Deadline: Sept. 7th, 2010 at 12:15 PM (CST)

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: After skimming through a couple games you played, I'm finding you somewhat more suspicious. In Large Normal 105, you were town. In Mini 909 and Mini 865, you were scum. In each of the latter two, you said some things that drew definite attention to you (in the first, fakeclaiming miller; in the second, suggesting random D1 lynch.) In the game where you were town, I didn't see any such dramatic statements. To me, this indicates that you aren't afraid of drawing attention to yourself as scum, such as you did at the beginning of this day.

Can you explain why you elected to read games from my wiki that were 8+ months old, when I have a fresh new catalogue of games just dripping with relevent meta? My recent scumgames have no such 'dramatic' statement, as it were, and I've just completed a game as town fakeclaiming a role in my first post. I don't understand why you opted to create patterns of behaviour off such a small (and dated) sample size. You may have a point that I

can

be brazen as scum, but you also neglect to see if this patterns exists in my town behaviour. To me, I think you're overrelying on meta tells, when you don't really do them properly in the first place. Though, the fact you're willing to explore and invest effort in trying to unearth meta tells is a good sign. I generally expect these sorts of plays (particularly early, and particularly when not under pressure) to come from town, powered by a genuine desire to crack the game open, rather than scum, who doesn't gain much by going to all this effort to appear scumhunting.

~~

This next point might appear to be controversial, as I attempt to outguess the mod, but I want to run this idea past you all;

I'm waiting to hear back on the PMs I sent out for replacements. I'm not counting Paws' self-vote. I'm of the opinion that once someone asks to replace out, they are no longer part of the game. If the players want to go ahead with this lynch, they must do so without Paws' self-vote (although what the replacement does is their business).

This seems like a strange piece of mod intervention - initially I thought it was fair enough, but some of what is said doesn't match up with Red's previous treatment of Paws play once she asked to replace. I'll explain;

I'm of the opinion that once someone asks to replace out, they are no longer part of the game.

If that is truly Redcoyote's opinion, he should have made a note of it as soon as he saw Paws continuing to post after wanting replacement. Here is the timeline;

August 20th, 3:17pm

Paws has requested that she be replaced, so I am in the process of finding someone.

August 20th, 4:20pm

Paws say a final goodbye post, which is understandable to not comment on as mod.

August 20th, 10:11pm

Paws now starts talking about suspects and game-related material.

August 21st, 4:10pm

RedCoyote makes a note of Cepi's V/LA, which indicates he is up-to-date and following the posts of the game to this point.

August 22nd, 12:22am

Paws self-votes.

It is only after this point that RedCoyote intervenes with the game with his replacement rule. This is where it gets sticky, though - Red has shown previous acceptance of Paws' subsequent posts by way of ignoring it and not enforcing his rule/opinion. This shows he is subjectively enforcing a rule, based on what has been posted (a self-vote). It can be interpreted that Paws self-vote is significantly more game-changing than her previous posts, but how is RedCoyote to know what could be potentially gleaned from Paws post about her suspects. The fact that he has been inconsistent means he is stepping in

because

of the self-vote. It leads me to the logical conclusion, that it is likelier he is stepping in because there is more at stake (scum losing a player is individually more damaging to their chances, as opposed to town losing a townie).

Paws was always a good wagon, and this passage of play is too bizarre to ignore and not try to understand. Another interpretation is that Paws is a powerrole, which could explain Red's intervention. I'd say it's highly probable Paws is either a PR or a scumbag - to play it safe, we ought to wait for a replacement to get a claim, but this wagon almost certainly needs to be finished today.

[Hoopla]

Also, Red. Your post-counts are really distracting with the inclusion of crossed-out players on it. I'm assuming they're where everyone had their previous vote, right? I don't find it useful at all - just thought you should know. I also dislike the anal unvoting rule too, no doubt you picked that up from zoraster, I'm sure.

[Sotty7]

Her reaction to my vote, proposing policy lynching and omgus. That's the thing on camn.

The last two aren't scum tells. What was so telling about her reaction to you? What do you think about my comparison between you and chauchau?

I don't have much time, so I'll just want to say this before I forget: who's talking about scum-tells? They aren't scum tells, but they sure add together to something in D1. And that, right now, it's worthy of a vote.

If they aren't scum tells why are they apart of your case on camn?

= = = = =

Sotty7

: I can see some scumminess now, especially early on. Questioning the Apok-hate in iso6 rreks of getting on the right side of a mislynch, although we have no flip for confirmation. Actually, although I liked her iso#11 initially, now the whole thing kind of smells like that. I like it when people defend me, but it is easy to do if you are scum.

maybe-scum

.

I will defend people who have crap cases put on them. The initial Apok case was weak and the pressure on you was bad. I'm not just going to ignore that.

= = = = = =

The Paws tantrum just looks like caught scum to me. We can wait for the replacement and hope she drops a ton of tells as to who her buddies are if you all want. I'm not going to rely on that happening so my vote is staying. Even if it means I “look bad” when she flips scum. I'd rather lynch a scum today and worry about the fall out tomorrow.

Also Snow has replaced Cepi in my top three. Paws/chauchau/Snow.

EDIT BY WAY OF PREVIEW: I'm not about to play out guess the mod. I am of the opinion that once you ask to be replaced you shouldn't be posting in the thread anymore period. I just really think Paws is scum

[UncertainKitten]

I'm going to have to say that were I modding, and for some reason being incredibly lax on posting after requesting replacement, I still would not count any vote made by the replace outter because ANY vote is destablizing from a player who shouldn't be there, regardless of their alignment or role.

It has an objective, real effect on the game.

[Hoopla]

EDIT BY WAY OF PREVIEW: I'm not about to play out guess the mod. I am of the opinion that once you ask to be replaced you shouldn't be posting in the thread anymore period. I just really think Paws is scum

What's wrong with outguessing the mod, when this game's primary function is outguessing the player? The mod has confirmed information of the whole game - if he drops a big enough tell in one post to incriminate/clear someone, we ought to use it, even if we shouldn't have been told that information. Players try to read each other off one or two posts all the time, especially if they're something significant - I don't see why this rule exists beyond preventing players get distracted from how the game

should

work. I say should, because there

should

be no mod tells, but he is dropping one now and I'm going to use it.

[Hoopla]

I'm going to have to say that were I modding, and for some reason being incredibly lax on posting after requesting replacement, I still would not count any vote made by the replace outter because ANY vote is destablizing from a player who shouldn't be there, regardless of their alignment or role.

It has an objective, real effect on the game.

But it's okay to talk about suspects? I agree with DGB - one of the three Paws listed is likely to be scum, if Paws is scum. That's a piece of pretty handy information that has been leaked because Red didn't tell her to shut up. And then Red not telling her to shut up after that also makes you wonder about the importance of what she said then. That might actually be a town tell.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm giddy with Hoopla love right now.

[UncertainKitten]

But it's okay to talk about suspects? I agree with DGB - one of the three Paws listed is likely to be scum, if Paws is scum. That's a piece of pretty handy information that has been leaked because Red didn't tell her to shut up. And then Red not telling her to shut up after that also makes you wonder about the importance of what she said then. That might actually be a town tell.

Well, first, it's not objectively useful. It's just words. While we subjectively use words throughout the game, it doesn't actually have an impact on the game. Rather, from a modding perspective. Further, saying something either way would lead to the speculation that you've launched into. RC is right to not touch it albeit he drop more hints. But when a vote is involved, that has a significant objective impact on the game.

Regardless, this is as much conjecture as what you've gone into, I'm merely just weighing in how I think it would work, using my own modding experience.

[RedCoyote]

Unvotes are required before changing one's vote. This was stated clearly in the rules and will continue to apply throughout this game to minimize any possibility of vote-technical trickery.

A self-vote from an outgoing player, especially one with an overtly malicious intent toward the game, the players, and the website as a whole, will not be counted here, nor in any game I ever run, regardless of their alignment. I was too lax with restricting Paws' continued presence, but I will not let my unintentional lapse in restricting her posting dictate the fate of that player slot or this game. Moreover, given the overtly malicious intent, I consider this to be a clear cut case of trolling, regardless of Paws' alignment, which is clearly against the rules of the game. I feel this is the most neutral position I can take, given the circumstances. Although I will not restrict any sort of "outguessing the Mod", if you have an issue with this decision itself, then you may take it up through PM or to the List Mod.

[Ojanen]

I'm back, finally. Catch up within a few hours.

[Fenchurch]

Unvotes are required before changing one's vote. This was stated clearly in the rules and will continue to apply throughout this game to minimize any possibility of vote-technical trickery.

Probably not the place to discuss this, but it seems to me that being strict about unvotes actually makes vote-trickery easier. I wouldn't have noticed at the time that esurio's vote was invalid if you hadn't pointed it out. If you just always allow a new vote to over-ride an old one, then players have less checking to do in determining whether a vote is valid or not.

Another thing I'd appreciate is the number of votes listed next to the players name, eg:

Paws (6) (Sotty7 - camn - UncertainKitten - Apokalyptika - Haylen - DrippingGoofball - camn)

But I can live without it.

---

Okay back to the game. I've been doing iso-reads today. I still feel like I've come late to the party, and everything I notice has already been said by someone else. I made notes as I was going, but they're sparse and unoriginal so I'm gonna post in a spoiler to reduce clutter.

Spoiler: Fen's scrappy iso notes

Apok

8 posts
scummy
iso 1: overexplaining/bad justification
iso 3: scummy vibe

camn

21 posts
mostly town
iso 1: preview vote switch
solid defence against her bandwagon
wants quicklynch on paws??

cepi

3 posts
mostly town

chauchau

11 posts
town
iso 4: lost at people jumping to scum-pairs
iso 9: solid questioning at paws

DGB

20 posts
no read
deems sotty scum, hoopla/haylen town, apok scummy, haylen maybe scum, camn town, paws scum, me town

Fenchurch

3 posts

Haylen

30 posts
no read
back and forth on Paws

Hoopla

29 posts
no read/leaning town
iso 26: in-depth guessing the mod,

Ojanen

3 posts
nothing, currently v/la

Paws

13 posts
newbie/somewhat scummy
names camn, scotty [sic], haylen as scum
refuses to post content despite being told why
self-votes after asking to be replaced

Snow_Bunny

15 posts
scummy
iso 1: claims lurker
iso 14: hanging on to weak case on camn, apparently not based on scumtells

Sotty

14 posts
no read/leaning town
iso 11: good comments and observations
criticises wagon on camn

Sucrose

11 posts
scummy
iso 1+2: complaining about lack of content
weak case on UK

UncertainKitten

25 posts
no read/slightly scummy
switch onto the Paws wagon seems disingenuous

I've come round to the case against Paws. On multiple occasions people gave examples for the kind of content she should provide, and explanations why, and it does seem likely that she refused because it is takes work to pretend to scumhunt when you are scum, especially when new.

I am hugely pro Hoopla's out-guessing the mod, although I'm not so sure what to think in light of RC's response...

[esuriospiritus]

You must unvote before voting someone else.

Meh.

unvote
vote: Paws

L-1.

PREVIEW EDIT: Fen, it looks like you... completely ignored me, even down to ignoring that DGB posted a town read on me. :<

[Hoopla]

Unvotes are required before changing one's vote. This was stated clearly in the rules and will continue to apply throughout this game to minimize any possibility of vote-technical trickery.

Probably not the place to discuss this, but it seems to me that being strict about unvotes actually makes vote-trickery easier. I wouldn't have noticed at the time that esurio's vote was invalid if you hadn't pointed it out. If you just always allow a new vote to over-ride an old one, then players have less checking to do in determining whether a vote is valid or not.

Yeah, I was just about to post this. Fake hammers (amongst other things) are an easily exploitable trick in rulesets strict on voting (particularly the 'must unvote rule'). Though some players will have been conditioned to unvote before casting a new one, this is an uncommon enough rule, that other players will forget this. And if they do, it's annoying having to go back to the last vote count to see if they have a vote out, to ensure their current vote was okay. Even then, it runs the risk of someone not remembering to do that check.