Mini 1021: Battousai's Mountaintnous Mountain Mafia (Over)


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Post Post #575 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 2:21 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

PranaDevil wrote:Except that only works if you Quick No Lynch at the beginning, by this point in Day 1 scum already know who the biggest threats are.
except that they really don't... Nobody is clearly considered town by most other players yet.
the day before mylo it most certainly will be clear who is considered town by most other players.
They already know who is thinking things through well enough to get rid of, so your statement holds no water.
then why vote to lynch me if you know scum will want to nk me?
Scum are't about to kill the person posing no threat to them at all are they? They'll hit the person posing a decent threat. They already know who this is at this point, and if they don't then the scum are idiots who will out themselves anyway.
so why are you voting for a player who would be obvious NK bait later in the game?
So, as I say, your statement holds no water, and it doesn't "differ by a day" unless we mislynch Day 2.
what are the odds of that? Please demonstrate your fluency with game theory by showing your work.
According to your own statement you work better with 2 flips, that's Day 2 if we lynch now, and more information in total. So sorry, but your reasoning is wrong.
I'll give you a refresher on basic number theory:
1 < 2 < 3 < 4 <5
the more flips the more information scumhunters have
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Post Post #576 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 2:24 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

ebwop:
So, as I say, your statement holds no water, and it doesn't "differ by a day" unless we mislynch Day 2.
what are the odds of mislynching on both day 1 and day 2
what are the odds of mislynching on both day 2 and day 3 following a nolynch on day 1?
Please demonstrate your fluency with game theory by showing your work.
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Post Post #577 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 2:46 am

Post by PranaDevil »

tomorrow wendy wrote:
They already know who is thinking things through well enough to get rid of, so your statement holds no water.
then why vote to lynch me if you know scum will want to nk me?
lol
tomorrow wendy wrote:
Scum are't about to kill the person posing no threat to them at all are they? They'll hit the person posing a decent threat. They already know who this is at this point, and if they don't then the scum are idiots who will out themselves anyway.
so why are you voting for a player who would be obvious NK bait later in the game?
lol again.
tomorrow wendy wrote:
So, as I say, your statement holds no water, and it doesn't "differ by a day" unless we mislynch Day 2.
what are the odds of that? Please demonstrate your fluency with game theory by showing your work.
You expect me to spend my free time number crunching? Yeah... smeg off.

Seriously, I'm sick of this moronic argument, you are distracting town.

@Everyone, please to be lynching wendy now, thankies.
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Post Post #578 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 2:53 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

found a nice appeal to authority on the subject of mountainous games
mith in a high level mafia theory discussion wrote:GL 1 - 2:10 NS, scum lynched D4 (lylo)
Brunchma 1 - 2:8 NS, scum lynched D1 and D5 (town win)
Brunchma 2 - 2:4 NS, effectively, and I'm not sure it actually finished (I was in the game and lynched D1, but I wasn't actually around and playing)
Mini 77 - 2:10 NS, scum lynched D3
Open 2 - 3:14 DS, scum lynched D3 and D8
Open 55 - 2:10 NS, abandoned after D2

Small sample size, but based on the only data we actually have that's directly relevant here,
towns don't have trouble getting down to 1 scum, they have trouble lynching the last one.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3&start=93

I found it while I was looking for the numbers thread: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1&start=50 (but the link to the spreadsheet is broken)

we don't have any investigative roles to save us, we don't have any protective roles to save those who are most townie, we have to rely upon scum interaction to find ALL of the scum, and we have to nolynch before mylo.

We have information from day 1. We can nolynch now, and make slightly more informed lynches on all future days.
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Post Post #579 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 3:19 am

Post by Nexus »

Fitz: I can't help having things to do away from mafia. Here it is, anyway.

CA:
Three different random votes in the space of 24 hours, going from LmL, to Leech, to Prana. I know he wanted to start a bandwagon, but surely the easiest way to get a single bandwagon going is to keep your vote on one person, and keep pushing them? Granted, he then goes on to say that he believes Prana is actually scum, and his vote on Prana was not random-but why have two separate random votes during the RVS? Granted, this was early play, but it did make me suspicious.

He then "forgot about the thread" until iamausername pointed out that he was lying low to wait for his wagon to blow over. Since I was called scum and a liar for saying something similar about where my vote was placed, and why I hadn't changed it, I'm calling him out on this.

He bought up things I'd already explained (yes, I realise I'm doing exactly that), but he said he needed to reread to check he hadn't missed anything-he clearly did, because Xite pointed out that I had explained myself. At least I'm doing him the service of re-reading stuff and pointing these suspicions out.

He then tries to explain his bandwagoning gambit...and immediately says he didn't know where he was going with it. So, why do it and waste time?

He says he isn't engaged in the game. What's the point in him being here, then? Surely not being involved and engaged is anti-town?

I don't know if he's scum or not, and I don't consider him as anti-town or scummy as tw. So, I wouldn't support a CA lynch over a tw lynch.

Xite:
The fact that he started picking on me was a source of annoyance, particularly the way he went about it was because he was being so aggressive, but whatever. At least he was being fairly productive and trying to get some kind of information out of people. Althoug his "guess the scumreasoning" was silly, and a bit anti-town.

The fact he forgot Korashk in his scumlist, like iam said, is quite odd. Saying that, I'd done the same thing, so I don't think it's a scumtell.

He does have a lot of posts which are little more than just empty quotes or random one liners that aren't useful. I don't find that helpful at all, and it's a waste of everyone's time to have to read it. This continues all the way through-post #417 is a particular favourite-5 quotes, nothing added.

Post #196. Care to elaborate? (yes, 12 days too late. Apparently noone picked up on it.)

Your explanation of your gambit is bad. You tried to, by your own admission, make me look scummy by your attack, and my defense. Why on earth would you try and make other people look scummy unless you thought they were scum-you said you thought I was town. So why bother? You look scummy for making a townie look scum-it reeks of a mafia trying to lynch a townie so they don't have to nightkill.

His initial vote on tw was done with no reason. He quoted her post, and then put "interesting" and then voted her. I don't like this, even if tw is scum, he should've at least given a reason.

He was being quite confrontational again towards tw when she first replaced it-it's a terrible attitude to take.

He wants a wendy lynch if he gets lynched tonight, then IAU one afterwards. Is this because IAU is pushing for a lynch on his scum buddy CA? Plus, he doesn't give any reasoning for his suspicion, besides "based on his last post." What in his last post? Stop casting suspicion but then not backing it up?

I can't tell him off for his case on TW. I agree with most of the points.

Personally, I don't think Xite is scum. I would support a CA lynch over him, but still TW is most suspicious, imo anyway. Time's ticking

TW's last few posts. "META META META" Meta will defend me. No, no it won't. You're being distracting, and not really helpful. AND you try and push a no lynch again. I'm bored of it now.

So yeah,
vote: tomorrow wendy
she is the scummiest and most anti-town player so far, imo, and isn't really providing much more than raeg and meta.
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Post Post #580 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 3:41 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

darn, I was hoping for Nexus to vote for xite. That puts me at 5, and xite is still only at 4. I expect that CA will also vote for me, so IAU and llamafluff you guys have to vote for xite before CA has a chance to vote for me, or else I will be the deadline lynch.
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Post Post #581 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 3:57 am

Post by Nexus »

Why would you think that I would vote xite when I've repeatedly stated that you're most suspicious, and you have either ignored or failed to answer my points, and only served to reinforce them?
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Post Post #582 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:05 am

Post by Lateralus22 »

Hm, it's nice to see you're serious now tw, and it looks like Prana's getting a little angry.

Prana and Xite, what do the two of you think of each other?

I don't have much to say about the last two pages. A lot of it is just discussion about no lynch and ongoing games. tw don't you think the scum already have a good idea about who they're going to kill, and if we do lynch now that would help the town get information faster and lynch scum faster?
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Post Post #583 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:16 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

Lateralus22 wrote:Hm, it's nice to see you're serious now tw, and it looks like Prana's getting a little angry.

Prana and Xite, what do the two of you think of each other?

I don't have much to say about the last two pages. A lot of it is just discussion about no lynch and ongoing games. tw don't you think the scum already have a good idea about who they're going to kill, and if we do lynch now that would help the town get information faster and lynch scum faster?
@Lat - Not much to discuss because the discussion is NL (Because of Wendy) and Ongoing Games (because of Wendy).

If you're town, i'm sure you're bubbling over with anger with (a) how Wendy has completely tried to distract the town. and (b) how many of us (myself included) allowed her to do so.
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Post Post #584 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:20 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

Nexus iso 38 wrote:Writing as I read again. Sort of.

First things first: I really hate people using the reasonings "Because of gut." Xite, and Wendy are prime examples of this. Either provide some hard evidence, or don't say anything, because to me it seems like a random vote. I mean, gut probably is a large factor, but there has to have been a post that's set off your gut churning like that, surely? So, show me the posts. (Yes, I realise Leech makes this point too, but I wanted to reiterate it)
see my iso post 78, see the "scumhunting" thread at http://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewto ... =5&t=12572
wendy randomly calling a scum team of xite and fitz was odd, because the two of them haven't really had many interactions. I haven't had much interaction with Prana, or you, Wendy, does that make us scum teams too?
no, it does not make you scum teams.

I skimmed the game thread, diagramed the votes, and called out my gut read.

~~~

prview, fuck it. I waqs retarded for coming back to this site.
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Post Post #585 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:21 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

you guys are idiot, you waste this much time playing this game, but you don't fucking pay attention or even understand the basic theory? sad.
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Post Post #586 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:22 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

LoudmouthLee wrote: If you're town, i'm sure you're bubbling over with anger with (a) how Wendy has completely tried to distract the town. and (b) how many of us (myself included) allowed her to do so.
unvote, vote Wendy


can i get a hammer?
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Post Post #587 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:22 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

nah, no lynch is better.
unvote, vote:no lynch
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Post Post #588 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:23 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

oh wait, only scum self vote:
unvote, vote wendy
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Post Post #589 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:24 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

ooo, I got one!
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Post Post #590 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:26 am

Post by PranaDevil »

Lateralus22 wrote:Hm, it's nice to see you're serious now tw, and it looks like Prana's getting a little angry.
Not so much angry, just frustrated that wendy is so deliberately trying to derail actual scum hunting in favour of unusable meta and game theory discussion.
Prana and Xite, what do the two of you think of each other?
Not got a strong read on Xite, and will need to do an ISO to check him, so will do that come next day phase. I do feel there have been some questionable comments from him as I've seen them pointed out by others. Just at this stage I feel wendy is easily the best lynch for the day.

And now wendy has decided to call everyone idiots, and is playing an Appeal To Emotion card.

If we were playing scum tell bingo I'd have a full house by now off wendy alone I'm sure.
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Post Post #591 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:28 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

PranaDevil wrote:
Lateralus22 wrote:Hm, it's nice to see you're serious now tw, and it looks like Prana's getting a little angry.
Not so much angry, just frustrated that wendy is so deliberately trying to derail actual scum hunting in favour of unusable meta and game theory discussion.
.
was trying to give you the real shit, the best I have to offer. pearls to swine.
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Post Post #592 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:30 am

Post by PranaDevil »

you gave us a triple helping of WIFOM which wasn't requested, a large dose of distracting via Mafia Theory, and a side order of a mental breakdown.
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Post Post #593 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:32 am

Post by Lateralus22 »

PranaDevil wrote: Not got a strong read on Xite, and will need to do an ISO to check him, so will do that come next day phase. I do feel there have been some questionable comments from him as I've seen them pointed out by others. Just at this stage I feel wendy is easily the best lynch for the day.
What, Xite is one of two most likely to be lynched today, how do you not have a strong read? Instead of wasting time and waiting for the next day why don't you go read Xite's Iso now and tell me what you think?
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Post Post #594 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:35 am

Post by PranaDevil »

Because... I don't have time now perhaps? You think I spend all day every day on here or something? Seriously? I'm actually busy today, so I'm just flicking over when I get an e-mail to say there's a new message, I don't have the time to dedicate to a full ISO check.
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Post Post #595 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:39 am

Post by Lateralus22 »

ok, so you don't have anything important that stuck out to you at all? Is he more town, neutral, scum?
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Post Post #596 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:42 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

PranaDevil wrote: Not got a strong read on Xite, and will need to do an ISO to check him, so will do that come next day phase. I do feel there have been some questionable comments from him as I've seen them pointed out by others. Just at this stage I feel wendy is easily the best lynch for the day.
selection bias is the name of your affliction.
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Post Post #597 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:43 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

PranaDevil wrote:Because... I don't have time now perhaps? You think I spend all day every day on here or something? Seriously? I'm actually busy today, so I'm just flicking over when I get an e-mail to say there's a new message, I don't have the time to dedicate to a full ISO check.
and seriously? do you have any clue how much time and effort I've put into this game? And you're going to lynch me because you don't comprehend me? What a huge freaking waste.
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Post Post #598 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:45 am

Post by PranaDevil »

If that was you putting time and effort into this game, I'd hate to see you just meandering along.

As for Xite, I don't know, most of the recent game has been wendy distracting the fuck outta me because I've been stuck arguing the second most stupid and ridiculous argument I've ever been a part of on this site (and 3rd overall).
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Post Post #599 (ISO) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:50 am

Post by tomorrow wendy »

mod: request replacement
-- mafia isn't a good idea for me anymore.
sorry folks, enjoy the rest of your game. I replaced in with the best on intentions, but I still care too much.

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