Mini 1021: Battousai's Mountaintnous Mountain Mafia (Over)

[havingfitz]

I'm going to learn from my last mistake, and

unvote

because currently llamafluff is third on my list. I'm not going to vote wendy yet because I want her to explain herself, and if someone decides to hammer before she gets a chance, I'll feel quite bad. Even if she flips scum. but,

FoS:tomorrow wendy

I need to re-read CA's posts, and Xite's, but I'm getting closer to voting you

(referring to tw)

.

@Nexus - Is CA or Xite a better lynch and why?

Pass. I'll iso them later and have a look. Xite's definitely been more anti-town because of his attitude, and so if I'm giving that as a reason to lynch TW, that means I have to use that as a reason against Xite. I'm pretty sure I had some suspicions on CA after how he acted at the start of the game-I'll double check when I get back in this afternoon, and also read other people's cases. I'm also beginning to rethink my stance on tw because I think I'm getting too focussed.

Nexus...how about finishing those reads you keep referring to and making a stance. Deadline is fast approaching.

@tw..reference the Xite meta...more IIoA. WTH good does that info do for us? So he's in other games...is thata scum tell? Are we supposed t meta all his games? Are you just trying to put/keep him in the spotlight? You mention the fact he is in games with CA, Llam, and perhaps Prana. Does the fact none of tem have put a vote done on Xite tell you anything? Worthless crap. Just like your repeated vca graphics. You menton your scummies in your defense....so you have been recognized for good play or opinions in the past. How does that matter in this game? You've played like crap. Deceived us with an alt...use IIoA on more than one occassion and basically outlining your current play in terms of why it would be scummy (ISO 62)...which it has been. Also...you are wheeling and dealing...setting up lynches down the road (Xite now for CA later)...which is uber scummy. Have you even targetted CA since you have replaced in?

@all--TW's play has been crap this entire game and now s/he is in scramble mode to save their ass. I'm not interested in a CA lynch today based on higher suspects and the only way I would move to Xite would be to avoid a no-lynch. Which from what all the mafia theorists we have in this game have put forth...wouldn't be the worst thing to do in this game set up.

tl:dr

---> TW=scum

[Xite91]

Fitz, you're forgetting one important thing
Regardless of how much more scummy she is, she's an alt of an experienced player, which means that everything she does is for a reason, and not because she's scum, and since I haven't been on this site very long, I am obviously very inexperienced, therefore everything I do makes me scum.
That's why I'm more scummy than Wendy.

[Nightwolf]

@ LmL:

I actually don't like the Xite lynch right now.

As far as I know, that's been your first and most specific mention of a position on a Xite lynch, so I'd like to ask: Why do you not like a Xite lynch right now? You can be as specific or general as you like, but I'd like to see some kind of statement about it, even if its just agreement with something that another person said on the topic.

@ wendy:

Could you explain what post 522 was meant to communicate?
Also: If you could choose anyone in the game right now to be the day's lynch, who would it be?
Who would your choice be if you had to choose someone that there was at least another couple players that you could get to support the lynch?

General Statements:

Has there been anyone else that has expressed any potential support of a CA lynch besides those voting him and myself? I dont want to end up rereading 5 or so pages again just to find out that the answer is no.

I agree with a couple specific statements wendy has made over the last couple pages, and one of them is related to an item I said that I would rather not mention, so I am not pointing out specifically what they are yet.

[tomorrow wendy]

Or is it that whole posting a bunch of irrelevant stuff as scum thing again.
Since you seem to place so much belief in metas, why don't we talk about that one for a while?

ok. I suggest that you get the person who made that comment to expand upon it, cause you totally don't understand what he was talking about. for background, one of the last threads I participated in in mafia discussion was titled "Scumhunting" http://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewto ... =5&t=12572
Xite, I think you'll dig it for ammo to use against the newbies in future games -- essentially, it lays out a strong argument for why "experienced" players get to get away with gut reads, and newer players don't.

check out http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 87&start=0 for a mafia discussion where I explain the utility of the stuff that my attackers keep on characterizing as IIOA http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 87&start=0

[Nightwolf]

@ fitz:

and the only way I would move to Xite

would be to avoid a no-lynch.

Can you explain this statement? And more specifically explain it in reference to the underlined part?

[tomorrow wendy]

@ wendy:

Could you explain what post 522 was meant to communicate?

Xite posted

Oh boy WIFOM!
Or you got caught and so you're doing that during D1?
Lesse... who were two of your biggest attackers...
Me and.... Fitz!
Holy hell I think we've found something

so I posted that post to mark that something was wrong for that characterization.

at the time I posted "calling scumteam of h.fitz+xite" the votecount was

Llamafluff -3- ConfidAnon, Nexus, havingfitz
Nexus -3- LoudmouthLee, Lateralus22, Leech
ConfidAnon -2- PranaDevil, Llamafluff
wendy -2- Saga, Xite91
Lateralus22 -1- iamausername
havingfitz -1- tomorrow wendy

(and Xite said that it was mess with the newbie time in the post he voted for me in)

so in order for Xite's characterization to be true, that would mean that I was caught by a wagon of 2.

Also: If you could choose anyone in the game right now to be the day's lynch, who would it be?

Xite

Who would your choice be if you had to choose someone that there was at least another couple players that you could get to support the lynch?

CA and h.fitz

General Statements:

Has there been anyone else that has expressed any potential support of a CA lynch besides those voting him and myself? I dont want to end up rereading 5 or so pages again just to find out that the answer is no.

yes. I think that there may be as many as 6 votes for CA, and the first wagon to 6 wins at deadline. Are you thinking about advocating for a last minute switch from Xite to CA?

[Xite91]

Going through to see something starting with newest post to last.
These are posts where Wendy has posted IIoA, Something worthless, something that was already pointed out, or something irrelevant (AKA for all of them, something distracting) and the post before said post.
by the way, in this post worth noting = against her

547, 548
There is an answer to my question, but a bunch more IoA and ignoring my main point of that post.
544, 545, 546 (This one could be ignored because the first relevant post is two posts before hers, but I'll leave that up to the reader)
My post: Holds a bunch of good points (at least IMHO, but I'll let you make that decision yourself)
Nexus post: Nothing worth really noting
Wendy's post: a bunch of my games
533
Okay, nothing worth noting before hand
527-531
Nexus saying a few good points
Wendy completely ignoring nexus and going on something completely different
525
Nothing of note here
521, 522
Me point out another thing against her based on what she said
her taking it and saying it reminds her of a bunch of quotes that don't seem to fit the situation
519, 520
Me making points against her
Her: "gosh day one is serious business" points she makes about herself that is use in 521 against her and ohai, I can haz towncreds?
488, 489, 490
Another case against her
Ohai guyz, we could lynch xite so she'll shut up (hmmmm)
Although a no lynch would be better
477, 478
Just read it.
460, 461
Another time where she completely ignores Nexus
432, 433
This one, she acknowledges that nexus said something (even quotes him) but doesn't try to argue anything said about her
then goes on to "prove random"
405, 406
This.
If you're not going to read any of the others, fine, but PLEASE read this one
381
Already explained why on this one, but seem like a scummy explanation as to why (honestly, the explanation was so she'd seem more town to those who meta)
366-370
Another one where I'll have to just say read it. There really is no explanation required.
345-347
Another good few points against her, and she says gambit and ohai, here's some questions for everyone

tl;dr - Wendy is using diversion tactics IMO

[PranaDevil]

Okay... first, HF, don't worry about a no lynch, in the rules we have:

16) At deadline, the player with the most votes is lynched. If there is a tie, the player who had the most votes first will be lynched.

Now, wendy... I'm sorry, but dragging up ONGOING games is just throwing stuff to see if it sticks. The worst bit about it is that you're playing that fine line between discussing ongoing games, and just mentioning there IS one.

The problem is not a single other player can comment on those games WITHOUT getting mod killed. Which, as far as I'm concerned, is a scummy trick to try and eliminate some competition early on before you get lynched and thus buy whoever your partner is some free time.

Sorry, but drag up previous meta by all means (I still don't like it as a defence, but whatever), but don't drag up ongoing games. At best it's anti-town as it's potentially making people comment ON said game, at worst it's scummy. Either way it's bad play.

So yeah. I'm all, 100%, for the wendy lynch.

[Xite91]

Okay
EBWOP because of ninjas
Only real thing I feel I should respond to this is Wendy's post with the links
Thing is, you have no idea who's more "experienced" than who, and I've seen some pretty bad "experienced" players. Oftentimes when I call someone a noob, it's less based on actual experience and more based on play. The worse and newer looking a play is, the more likely I am to call someone a noob. so I'm not going to waste my time going to the link because my ideology on that one will not change.
Now hows about actually scumhunting. In your ISO I just did, I found a lot more noise than signal, IMHO

@Prana: Thank you for saying what needed to be said about ongoing games.

[havingfitz]

@ fitz:

and the only way I would move to Xite

would be to avoid a no-lynch.

Can you explain this statement? And more specifically explain it in reference to the underlined part?

Right now I do not suspect anyone more than I do tw. The only way I would move off that would be for my #2 Llamafluff (whose suspicions have waned a bit with his out of sight out of mind play over the last several days) and to possibly avoid a no-lynch...which I am still not sure I would want today but as proponents of it have made decent points regarding a no-lynch...it apparently would no be the worst thing to have happen. If it came down to an Xite hammer or a no-lynch...I would consider moving to an Xite lynch. (But I would have to think it over more before deciding).

In summary...TW Yes!, CA not today, No-Lynch & Xite in a dead heat.

P.S. Edit...another reading failure on my part...just realized the only way there would be a no-lynch is if people voted for one so disregard my avoid no lynch point completely (unless a no-lynch wagon suddenly builds up).

Who would your choice be if you had to choose someone that there was at least another couple players that you could get to support the lynch?

CA and h.fitz

General Statements:

Has there been anyone else that has expressed any potential support of a CA lynch besides those voting him and myself? I dont want to end up rereading 5 or so pages again just to find out that the answer is no.

yes. I think that there may be as many as 6 votes for CA, and the first wagon to 6 wins at deadline. Are you thinking about advocating for a last minute switch from Xite to CA?

What happened to your suspicions towards me and Xite? CA has overtaken Xite now? Have you even presented a case on CA?

Up until post 517, there have been at most only 3 votes on CA at any given time and for the entire game, only 3 people have had votes on him so far (Llama, Iam, and Prana). He has had 6 votes total on him in this game...but I'm not certain that is how you are portraying the sitation given the 6 votes have not been at the same time, and have come from only three players. I call another misrep on you. tw=scum.

[tomorrow wendy]

Now, wendy... I'm sorry, but dragging up ONGOING games is just throwing stuff to see if it sticks. The worst bit about it is that you're playing that fine line between discussing ongoing games, and just mentioning there IS one.

I produced a comprehensive meta, which happens to only include one completed game. I noted two players who should have a basis for an opinion on Xite from other games, and analyzed their interaction with xite in that light.

plus I offered a explicit warning earlier in the game: "note to newer players, this is walking close to the edge of talking about an ongoing game. All of the information I just offered is mod revealed, which makes it ok as I understand the rules. I'm pointing this out because baiting someone into breaking site rules to draw a mod kill is a tactic that is occasionally used and generates mad chaos and lots of noise. I am not doing that here."

[PranaDevil]

Except those two players (Of which I'm one) CANNOT comment on Xite's playstyle between the games without being mod-killed. Thus it's still pointless. Yes, Xite is questionable in this game, and it's this game I'm using to judge it. Not previous ones.

And warning or not, how is anyone meant to make USE of the meta without referencing ongoing games? They can't, thus you've posted the warning to be able to do what you've just done "But I told them not to reference them" while at the same time saying "hey, look at this ongoing meta we can use".

Sorry, but it doesn't add up however it's sliced.

[tomorrow wendy]

not my fault the hyperactive newbie hasn't completed more than a single game. I didn't know that going into it. I was expecting more since he has almost 1k game posts. ONE is completed, his alignment has been revealed as MAFIA in two others. If he survives the day in this game, more of those games will be completed, and much more information from of those games be legal to present as evidence against him.

[tomorrow wendy]

Except those two players (Of which I'm one) CANNOT comment on Xite's playstyle between the games without being mod-killed.

IIRC, you are only in one shared game with him. Which one was it?

I expected that llamafluff and CA would have enough experience with his play to have a basis for an informed opinion of his alignment in this game.

was i wrong? Do you have more experience with Xite than one game? Has alignment been mod-revealed in those games?

And warning or not, how is anyone meant to make USE of the meta without referencing ongoing games? They can't, thus you've posted the warning to be able to do what you've just done "But I told them not to reference them" while at the same time saying "hey, look at this ongoing meta we can use".

one of which is currently in Night one, and the mod just revealed his alignment as MAFIA earlier this week! Dood, you should look at it.

[tomorrow wendy]

Have you even targetted CA since you have replaced in?

you know what is crap? That in the two posts I made immediately before asked this I wrote

Since he is alive in so many games it will be very easy to bust him later if he is scum. I didn't look through the player lists very carefully, but I noticed CA in a couple, and I think that I noted which games he was also in except for one which I can't find right now. IIRC Prana was also in one of those games. It is also interesting that llamafluff is moderating him in two games. I would expect llamafluff and CA to have a decent feeling for Xite's play, and have strong opinions on his alignment.

and

ereading CA in iso, I don't see any strong interaction between him and xite. In his last post in this thread he stated that he was looking for a way to get into the game, yet one player whose number he might have (since he replaced him once, just saw him get lynched as scum in another) is a leading lynch candidate, and the only opinion he has voiced on xite is "Also, not liking Xite's reactions right now" -- after rereading CA in iso in light of this my estimation of his chance of being scum is dramatically increasing.

For the sake of comparison, llamafluff replaces in and is immediately all over Xite's shit, and continues to support a CA lynch or a Xite lynch.

you know what else is crap?

You mention the fact he is in games with CA, Llam, and perhaps Prana. Does the fact none of tem have put a vote done on Xite tell you anything? Worthless crap.

llamafluff said that he was going to vote for Xite.

what is that, you want more crap?

You menton your scummies in your defense....so you have been recognized for good play or opinions in the past. How does that matter in this game?

try reading the prior posts where I explained that. Reading comprehension saves time.

[tomorrow wendy]

Except those two players (Of which I'm one) CANNOT comment on Xite's playstyle between the games without being mod-killed. Thus it's still pointless.

why do you have to be able to comment on information for it to be valuable? Can't information that you can't comment on inform your lynch selection, making it more accurate?

[PranaDevil]

Except those two players (Of which I'm one) CANNOT comment on Xite's playstyle between the games without being mod-killed.

IIRC, you are only in one shared game with him. Which one was it?

Popularity.

I expected that llamafluff and CA would have enough experience with his play to have a basis for an informed opinion of his alignment in this game.

was i wrong? Do you have more experience with Xite than one game? Has alignment been mod-revealed in those games?

Just one game, and stop trying to push for me to reveal information on it. Sorry, not happening. The game is ONGOING. Thus even suggesting his flip is, as far as I'm concerned, grounds for potential mod-removal. You're also forgetting that a lot of factors go into things, such as if you're scum, who your buddies are, and if you're town, who the scum is, and who else is in the game. Different factors change certain issues. Sorry, but you're not drawing me into your trap.

And warning or not, how is anyone meant to make USE of the meta without referencing ongoing games? They can't, thus you've posted the warning to be able to do what you've just done "But I told them not to reference them" while at the same time saying "hey, look at this ongoing meta we can use".

one of which is currently in Night one, and the mod just revealed his alignment as MAFIA earlier this week! Dood, you should look at it.

Or how's about "dood" you should stop trying to make people reference ONGOING GAMES?

That's the very last I'm going to comment on the ongoing games bullcrap.

So far you've drawn people in with useless images, self voting for no reason (bollocks to your claimed reason), tried to distract town with a pointless Day 1 no lynch which outright contradicts your requirement for needing 2 flips to be able to start scum hunting (a no lynch on day 1 means you have to wait until day THREE for those two flips, when it's actually 3 flips... talk about contradicting yourself), and now you are trying to get people modkilled by referencing ongoing games.

At this stage I couldn't care less what you have to say in your defence, you're scum. My vote will be staying on you, and I have no reason whatsoever to remove it, as nothing can top what I've seen from you.

[tomorrow wendy]

So far you've drawn people in with useless images, self voting for no reason (bollocks to your claimed reason), tried to distract town with a pointless Day 1 no lynch which outright contradicts your requirement for needing 2 flips to be able to start scum hunting (a no lynch on day 1 means you have to wait until day THREE for those two flips, when it's actually 3 flips... talk about contradicting yourself),

another reading comprehension fail by you. two flips in a 12p game is when a voting diagram begins to start paying dividends, and is when I presume that "informed scumhunting" begins. Day 1 no lynch is to minimize the utility of the extra scum kill. FFS, I even typed out "if we do that then no-lynch becomes optimal on day 2, and informed scumhunting still doesn't begin until day 3" in post 422.

now you are trying to get people modkilled by referencing ongoing games.

You've watched too many movies. Scum don't actually explain their clever plan to the hero before they carry it out.

sorry guys, I don't have the heart to argue my heart out. I'll switch my vote to xite if the opportunity to lynch him presents itself, but I'll leave my vote on h.fitz in the meantime for the symbolic value since it seems pretty clear to me that I'm going to be the lynch. goodluck!

fucking fail. I just put way way more time into this game than I intended to, at the expense of the life LML doesn't think that I have. Fucking mafia.

[tomorrow wendy]

here is the thing about no-lynch in this setup:

every day before mylo the town will typically agree to postpone no-lynch, until we are in mylo, and then it is too late, the two most obviously town players eat it, and the town that remain are fucked

I nailed down the opinions of enough people that in this town no-lynch might actually be elected before mylo, which I believe would be a first on this site.

[PranaDevil]

FFS, I even typed out "if we do that then no-lynch becomes optimal on day 2, and informed scumhunting still doesn't begin until day 3" in post 422. .

I know, I saw you type it out, I also stated you were completely wrong and that if we go for a no lynch (which is a good idea) EARLY GAME IS A STUPID TIME TO DO IT.

I can't even remember who originally said it (I want to say Wolf, but could be wrong), but the optimal time is the lynch before MyLo, anytime before that is just throwing away information (you said you need two flips, yet want to go for three, WHAT?!), anytime after that is giving the game up.

You have made no sense, have basically gone this road of you're right and everyone else is wrong, and are knowingly, and deliberately trying to distract town. You're scum.

[tomorrow wendy]

FFS, I even typed out "if we do that then no-lynch becomes optimal on day 2, and informed scumhunting still doesn't begin until day 3" in post 422. .

I know, I saw you type it out, I also stated you were completely wrong and that if we go for a no lynch (which is a good idea) EARLY GAME IS A STUPID TIME TO DO IT.

so now instead of contradicting myself (as you just claimed in your last post), I am simply wrong instead?

I can't even remember who originally said it (I want to say Wolf, but could be wrong), but the optimal time is the lynch before MyLo, anytime before that is just throwing away information (you said you need two flips, yet want to go for three, WHAT?!), anytime after that is giving the game up.

you are still missing the informational advantage scum enjoy in being able to kill "obviously town" players, an advantage the increases every day after the first.

[tomorrow wendy]

(you said you need two flips, yet want to go for three, WHAT?!)

sorry, I missed this question.

scenario 1:
nolynch -> night kill -> lynch --> night kill = three flips before informed scumhunting begins.

scenario 2:
lynch -> nightkill -> no lynch --> night kill = three flips before informed scumhunting begins.

it is impossible for me to advocate an early game no-lynch without 3 flips occurring before "informed scumhunting" can begin.

[PranaDevil]

Except you don't need to no lynch day 2, do you? You could no lynch later in the game, as in just before MyLo, thus you are contradicting yourself AND being wrong about it all in one swoop.

This is my complaint with you, you're basically sticking your fingers in your ear and going "lalalala" to anyone elses view that a no lynch this early is a shit idea (it is). How's about dropping the entire No Lynch crap this early and realizing that Day 2 we'll have two flips, and can start making those informed decisions you are so high on, while also agreeing to No Lynch the day before MyLo.

The reason you wont is because you're scum, and you say you will have a better idea of who scum is after two flips. In that case why would you want THREE flips before that point when, by your own admission, after two you can actually start going after the scum? If we hit scum Day 2 then the No Lynch becomes an exceptionally stupid effing idea until much, much later in the game doesn't it?

[tomorrow wendy]

perhaps repetition is the solution: you are still missing the informational advantage scum enjoy in being able to kill "obviously town" players, an advantage the increases every day after the first. Being able to kill two town leaders will eradicate townie leadership, and go a long way towards stoping any townie alliance that is threatening to run the board. The cost to the town of electing "no lynch" increases with each day.

If we hit scum Day 2 then the No Lynch becomes an exceptionally stupid effing idea until much, much later in the game doesn't it?

and if we don't then day 3 will be 6vs2, and day 4 will be 4vs2mylo you are saying that you will only endorse nolynch on day 3, I'm saying that there is a tactical consideration that you are ignoring that pushes that forward by two days.

You're saying that I am scum because I have an opinion that falls outside of the current consensus, and differs from your own opinion by a single day?

in a 12 player game:
1. a lynch based upon one flip will be more accurate than a lynch with no flips
2. a lynch with three flips will be more accurate than a lynch based upon no flips
3. the earlier the scum get their extra kill, the less useful it will be for them
4. if we are ever going to no-lynch, then to minimize the cost to the town (measured in loss of lynch accuracy) and maximize the cost to the scum (in being less able to identify who will be a confirmed townie in lylo) day 1 no-lynch is optimal.

[PranaDevil]

Except that only works if you Quick No Lynch at the beginning, by this point in Day 1 scum already know who the biggest threats are. They already know who is thinking things through well enough to get rid of, so your statement holds no water.

Scum are't about to kill the person posing no threat to them at all are they? They'll hit the person posing a decent threat. They already know who this is at this point, and if they don't then the scum are idiots who will out themselves anyway.

So, as I say, your statement holds no water, and it doesn't "differ by a day" unless we mislynch Day 2. According to your own statement you work better with 2 flips, that's Day 2 if we lynch now, and more information in total. So sorry, but your reasoning is wrong.