Newbie 985 Game over

[Kalofer]

Basically just look at the DP quote box, below that is my writing and below that is the FG quote box, disregard what you see above the DP quote box.

[FakeGod]

Welcome, Kalofer. Long time no see.

Right now I feel comfortable with my vote on Zach.

UNVOTE: Zachrulez
VOTE: FakeGod

Inconsistent much? This is like tvell again, only you made your post longer.

And for the reason above I am leaning towards Fake's theory 1 as I'm pretty much sure that both scum knew DP was being quite useless (no offense dude, but the best thing you did was your incrimination of me) and wanted him lynched as soon as possible.

If you're leaning toward Theory 1, then your vote belongs among Nikanor, Zachrulez, Kalofer, Abe27342, NashiNashi. Since it isn't, you're saying one thing, and doing another. Inconsistency.

That is exactly what I was thinking about you and DP and I'm pretty much sure it was also what DP was thinking about me and you. Since DP is dead and he was town I'm right now pretty convinced that you are scum. As for Nashi and Tvell I really can't say who's scummier and it pains me not to be able to vote for the both of them so I will vote for neither.

Same thing. If you're "convinced" that Zach is scum, then you would be voting for him. But you're not. More inconsistency.

However I agree most with Theory 4: There are 7 people in the game, and 2 of them are scum. Hence there are 2 scum among Nikanor, Zachrulez, Kalofer, Abe27342, NashiNashi, tvell and FakeGod.

In other words, you refuse to commit your stance one way or another. And why did you put this when you just said you're leaning toward Theory 1? Should we just ignore what you said about your beliefs about theory 1 then? Please clarify.

I also don't like the fact that Fake and Nashi are arguing so much but neither has voted for the other.

Why am I not voting Nashi? Simple. I don't think he's scum.

Especially considering the fact that FakeGod said (or implied) :"If someone doesn't vote I'm taking it as a scumsign".

Seeing that my exact words were "please vote whoever you think is scum, or I'll take your stance as pro no lynch" and nowhere did it say no vote = scum, I'm going to assume that you have made an error in thinking that I have implied such thing. I didn't, and please don't assume just because someone said something, that someone implied something next time.

And right now while I've been writing this my mind changed and I am going to vote for Fake who right now has become seemingly more scummier in my eyes than Zach (I don't care what kind of sign you're taking that as).

I'm bit unnerved at the speed you change your mind, but I'm perfectly fine with you voting me, or whoever else you believe is scum.

All I'm asking is to be consistent in your efforts. As I pointed out above, numerous points you made are at a cross with each other, making me to believe that you are not wholeheartly believing in what you're saying (leading me to believe that you're lying or highly confused)

Feel free to respond/explain what I have pointed out.

[Kalofer]

Touche. I'm very inconsistent, extremely inconsistent and I can't help it. I changed my mind half way through the post - there's inconsistency for you. But you're bringing it up as if I didn't say anything even though I did. As to the "convinced" bit, sorry, it's my way of writing in English, perhaps "fairly leaning" would have been closer to the mark. The theory 4 thing was a joke and I really can't decide if you're playing dumb or trying to use everything against me (yet even more inconsistency). Speaking of which I agreed with Zach when he said there's a small chance of scum being outside the wagon, but there's also the large chance that they could be (inconsistency? I think yes).

You don't think Nashi's scum? then what was the point of that argument about the inconsistencies and who do you actually think is scum? And sorry for accusing you of accusing non voters as scum, I only remembered you said something like that and forgot exactly what it was (and was too lazy to go back and quote that as well), unless a "no-lynch" stance is an euphemism for scum.
"I'm perfectly fine with you voting me"...say wuuuut? That's the second time you've said something along those lines and I'm starting to believe you're using psychological mind tricks (or I'm extremely paranoid and grasping at air)...Disregarding that, I DON'T WANT YOU TO BE PERFECTLY FINE, I WANT YOU TO BE VEXED, THESE THINGS CAN KILL YOU MAN WTH???!!!
Wow, I think you pinpointed the reason why I suck at this game with your last few paragraphs, because I never wholeheartedly believe what I'm saying because I can never be absolutely sure if I'm right or not.

[FakeGod]

Kal, I'm not playing mind games here. There's a good reason why I never mind votes on me.

Say you're a scummy townie and you're attracting (unhealthy) attention from other players in your game.

Then, the best thing you could do, in my honest and humble opinion, is to remove yourself early in the game via a lynch, to remove yourself from the list of suspects and lessen the confusion you're creating among the town.

If I'm creating too much unhealthy attention from my fellow townspeople, then I would know when votes are piling on me, and if I'm playing waay too scummy, then I wouldn't being lynched to clear things up a bit for the town, granted that it's not LyLo.

Also, reason why I talk about inconsistencies a lot is because, well, from my experience,

scum tend to be inconsistent

.

They simply have to be very flexible in their stances in order to "flow" with the town, and survive, which is why I look for inconsistencies in other people's posts.

This is why I highly discourage people to make wishy-washy posts, which creates inconsistencies that scum can hide behind, and encourage committing a vote and sticking with an opinion, which would limit scum's options and force them to make a stand somewhere.

Just try to be more consistent.

[Excedrin]

Vote Count

FakeGod (2): tvellalott, Kalofer
tvellalott (1): Zachrulez

not voting: FakeGod, Abe27342, Nikanor, NashiNashi
alive: 7 majority: 4

I fixed quotes in post #498.

[FakeGod]

EBWOP: I wouldn't mind getting lynched

[Abe27342]

Requesting v/la from tomorrow until Tuesday. Ill be here tomorrow morning but I'm leaving for my aunts cabin. Sorry for the disturbance

[Zachrulez]

Ok, I'm back. Kinda caught up.

Still definitely happy with my Tvel vote.

[Kalofer]

I really think that you're bluffing Fake, if we were to lynch you now town will get no advantage whatsoever from doing so and will be still in more or less the same position. Yet you keep saying that you're willing to sacrifice yourself, even when there is no gain to be made. That defence is getting old don't you think? You saying that has only made me more consistent about my vote.

[Kalofer]

The first time you were attacked and left at L-2, you fought back and soon after that you acted aggressively, yet I'm seeing none of this today, did you have a pleasant conversation with your partner-in-crime at night?

[tvellalott]

Obviously the games on this forum (at least this one) are a lot more serious than the other forum I'm playing on. I've finished at least 3 mafias in the time this one has been going, so I suppose my impatience is probably making me look scummy.
Regardless.... UNVOTE: FakeGod

I'm returning to the position I had at the end of the last day phase. I don't particularly care if you pack of fence-sitting chickens think that me changing vote after vote is scummy. It isn't. The only way to apply the pressure is to put your vote on someone, isn't it? So when someone comes out with a good long theory and it sounds good, hell yeah I'm going to vote, especially if they're too pussy to vote themselves. This is ridiculous. It's like a bit circle-jerk here and I'm standing in the middle, just like Parker was last round.
Like FakeGod, I don't really care if I get lynched. Not only will it prove how stupid certain doubters are, but I want to get a game under my belt so I can go and play bigger theme games.

You all need to wake up and look at who is trying to not get voted for, flying easily under the radar, instead of who is throwing off BS 'scum-tells' which mean nothing.

VOTE: Abe27342 for continuing to lurk. If I was mafia, I'd be lurking, waiting patiently while the townies fought it out amongst themselves. If you had enough time to come and tell us you were going away, you should have thrown down a vote or a theory or something. Zachrulez did.

[tvellalott]

Oh crap, Abe27342 was really active on the last page >_<
I feel stupid now. I should have checked before I wrote that LMAO!

[Kalofer]

What the Hell was that?

You seriously can't accuse someone of lurking without knowing exactly what's been going on in his life, yesterday my net went off (thank God I didn't miss much) and I'm pretty sure you can accuse me of lurking even though I wasn't and not all lurkers are scum anyway. Seriously who the Hell are you, DavidParker junior? What's with all the aggression and kamikaze style? You are tempting me to vote for you just for the same reason I voted for DP, at the start you were calm and normal, you suddenly became enraged when voted for and now you're like a rabid animal, what's going on here, it can't all be merely frustration.

[Kalofer]

@Mod, thanks for fixing the quote thing

[FakeGod]

yo Kal, I never said "lynch me I'm useless".

I said if I'm not contributing to this game, feel free to vote me off.

[FakeGod]

I'm pretty sure there's a scum between Nik and Abe.

Anyone else feel the same?

[tvellalott]

What the Hell was that?

You seriously can't accuse someone of lurking without knowing exactly what's been going on in his life, yesterday my net went off (thank God I didn't miss much) and I'm pretty sure you can accuse me of lurking even though I wasn't and not all lurkers are scum anyway. Seriously who the Hell are you, DavidParker junior? What's with all the aggression and kamikaze style? You are tempting me to vote for you just for the same reason I voted for DP, at the start you were calm and normal, you suddenly became enraged when voted for and now you're like a rabid animal, what's going on here, it can't all be merely frustration.

Yes I can. I can do whatever the hell I want and accuse ANYONE I want. Vote for me if you think I'm scum, but I'm just playing my game just a lot different to how you are. We'll see if all this piss-weak, fence-sitting crap is more effective then my guns-blazing madness. 3-week day phases are horrendous when no-one seems to want to put pressure on someone for the sake of it.

Also, I wouldn't try and get anyone mod-killed.

I'm pretty sure there's a scum between Nik and Abe.

Anyone else feel the same?

My vote is on Abe, even though he was somewhat active on the last page I still think he flying way under the radar.

[FakeGod]

I still think he flying way under the radar.

They kinda both are in my opinion. Nik more so than Abe.

Vote: Nikanor

[NashiNashi]

Theory 1

: There was 2 scum in the DP wagon, and no scum outside the wagon. Hence, there are two scum among Nikanor, Zachrulez, Kalofer, Abe27342, NashiNashi.

Theory 2

: There was 0 scum in the DP wagon, and 2 scum outside the wagon. Hence, there are two scum among tvell and Fakegod.

Theory 3

: There was 1 scum in the DP wagon, and 1 scum outside the wagon. Hence, there are one scum among Nikanor, Zachrulez, Kalofer, Abe27342, NashiNashi, and one scum among tvell and FakeGod.

Good people of Newbie 985, which theory do you believe is the most likely?

With your next post, please indicate which theory you believe is most probable.

To answer your question, here is how I see it.

DP and Zombie are confirmed townies. That leaves six players, each with 1/7 chance of being the scum. I'm not going into the "I know I'm not" argument consider the entire point of Mafia is that we can not prove this until the game's revelation, so I won't throw that in for that reason. So:

We know that a townie voted for Zach, and a townie voted for Kelofer. That leaves DP who was a townie who's lynched, and Abe and Tv.

5 people were on the bandwagon, 2 people weren't. I assigned "1" as the whole of the Mafia, meaning each mafia member has a 1/2 position of being a Mafia while a townie is a 0.

SO. ((Individual probability x number of people in Bandwagon x (Person 1 being Mafia prob+ Person 2 being Mafia prob )) + ((Individual probability x number of people outside of bandwagon x (Person 1 being Mafia prob+ Person 2 being Mafia prob ))

Theory 1 - 1/7x5x (1/2+1/2) + 1/7 x 2 x (0+0) = 5/7
Theory 2 - 1/7x5x(1/2 + 0) + 1/7 x 2 x (1/2 + 0) = 3.5/7
Theory 3 - 1/7x 5x(0+0) + 1/7 x 2x(1/2 + 1/2) = 2/7

So in the order of likelihood, it's Theory 1 > theory 2 > theory 3. However it still doesn't do anything regard to telling us WHO is it that is the Mafia when it comes to the individual level.

I am intrigued with the Nik and Abe theory though. Mind to tell more beside the lurking?

[NashiNashi]

Because I'm not allowed to edit, @mod please fix my last post, my code's showing. Also, you have listed DP as a living player in post 1, he isn't.

Cheers

[FakeGod]

Nashi, I was only asking which theory

you

personally believed was true.

And Nik/Abe thing is mostly gut-tell.

[Zachrulez]

Abe's been active enough.

Nikanor hasn't posted since... the 11th.

Where are you Nikanor? Come and say hi... or something.

[NashiNashi]

FakeGod, wasn't my last post clear enough? Clearly I think theory 1 is more likely than theory 2, which in turn is more likely than theory 3.

[Excedrin]

Vote Count

FakeGod (1): Kalofer
Abe27342 (1): tvellalott
Nikanor (1): FakeGod
tvellalott (1): Zachrulez

not voting: Abe27342, Nikanor, NashiNashi
alive: 7 majority: 4

[FakeGod]

Just clarifying, Nashi.

Do you think either Abe or Nik is scum?