Of Gods And Men (GAME OVER!)

[Mighty Orbots]

@Iecerint, well, there would have to be some mechanism for choosing who the next Zombie pet would be in that case. Did you have something in mind?

We'd also have to have some reason that Tarhalindur was tracked to two people yesterday when he should only have had one action (an item action which I can confirm only targets one player.)

We'd also have to know why there was only one cult that showed up in Albert B. Rampage's census at the end of Night One.

The Zombie started the game at least unlynchable and probably also unkillable for one more shot (unless Faraday is a cult leader or mafia; we can almost certainly rule out mafia and if he's a cult leader then he's on the short list to be dealt with anyhow given how we'd be working with his track information if we follow the plan I laid out.) That would have given him plenty of opportunities to make sure that he'd infected at least one player before getting killed at that the cult would make it to at least a second player. Tarhalindur's targeting someone extra with what looks to me like an infection leads me to believe that it should be passed on to only one player per Zombie (as otherwise it'd be ridiculously hard to stop and there would need to be some more complicated queue system for when Zombies enter the game.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[ooba]

Well I think Tar should be dayvigged because
- Cult is the threat now
- We know his rolename so Mina's shot will not be wasted - who knows if the CL has his correct role name
- Better a sure shot than a random one which may fail or kill town
Lets use the lynch for the CL.

[Iecerint]

@ MO -- My guess would be that zombies get an extra action that, upon use, selects the subsequent zombie in the event of their death. It also explains Tar's extra target subsequent to his zombificaiton.

My subsequent guess is that the zombie doesn't show up on the census. After all, LMP flipped neutral rather than cult after his death. It's not clear that he would contribute to a "cult" census count in any event.

Regarding LMP's failure to die D1, I just noticed something interesting. I went back to the first page to check whether "neutral" was an official stand-in for all non-town non-mafiascum alignments, and I noticed that D1 was a "neutral day." Maybe neutral days empower the zombies? Both failures to kill LMP happened during that first neutral day IIRC.

(That aside, I don't see what the information about LMP being hard to kill has to do with matters.)

[@ Ooba -- I think we're all in agreement about the cult being the major remaining threat. The question is what course of action actually deals with them.]

@ MOish again -- Since cult appears to lack a kill AND seems to be very limited with regard to how often it can recruit, it would not surprise me if their wincon was non-standard. For example -- maybe they win when a certain absolute number of zombies have been created (e.g. 5 sequential individuals)?

[Mighty Orbots]

@Iecerint, Pomegranate flipped Neutral and showed up on the Census in the same category that Albert B. Rampage said cult fell into. There were 6 mafia, some number of town that I could look up if I wanted to be slightly more thorough and 4 others (Including alignments of Modified Lyncher, Modified Survivor and Modified Cult.) Cult should absolutely flip Neutral at the point in the flips where LynchMePls has gotten.

Albert B. Rampage's Census also accounted for everyone in the game except one person and we have a strong reason to think that was Mina who was in Limbo at the time based on what Albert B. Rampage had to say about it.

If the extra action that Zombies get is what infects the next Zombie and it gets used at night (when Tarhalindur seems to have used it) then we can avoid that next infection by killing the infectee before the night or blocking them so that they can't use the action no anyone. Just in case it's unblockable and we can't kill lynch them today the backup plan I've outlined is to track them. In that case tomorrow we'd kill the infectee first and the Zombie second I'd think. Actually, Tarhalindur's eagerness to be killed might be an argument for a certain number of Zombies needing to be created in order for cult to win but if we can stop the spread now that still shouldn't be an issue unless the number is three or less (which would be pretty hard on everyone else.)

It's interesting that you bring up the cults lack of ability to kill as killing cults really aren't the norm. As I've been saying, if Katy isn't the last mafia then the kill on Snow_Bunny most likely came from cult. If that's true then they'd have no reason to speak up and out their presence just to save a townie. Cult probably did have a reason to want to stop the night kills that Snow_Bunny's item was allowing no matter what her alignment was. The trouble with that case is of course that the mafia continue just not to have much killing power for what seems to be going on during the game (unless town already knocked it out with all the mafia kills.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

OK, well, if you think that's the case, then there's no CL at all, and the zombies ARE the Modified Cult. But LMP flipped Zombie, not Modified Cult, at the start of D6 IIRC. (This isn't edited in on the first page, so I'd missed this before.)

Mina is definitely the other possibility for being off the census, if the above scenario is in play.

Thinking about it, it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY that roleblocking will be any good. Soul-transfer/infection/whatever is either a Passive action given to the infector upon ability resolution (in which case it's already done and can't be roleblocked), or an analogous rapid ability. So yeah. I agree that killing infectee and then the infector might work -- though that suggests NOT killing Tar yet. (The problem is that I'm one of the infectees and can't be killed easily.) The alternate possibility is that doing that lets CL recruit a new zombie from the waiting list.

(I say infector instead of infectee because Kinetic once told me he'd tell me if my abilities changed, and he hasn't done so.)

The point is that they can't kill AND they can't really recruit, or that's what it looks like -- otherwise, the timing of Tar's recruit doesn't make sense. Because of that, it's likely that their wincon involves something other than taking over the town. Otherwise, they're just a gimp SK.

[Iecerint]

EBWOP: Nevermind; Zombie is edited into the 1st page; "neutral" hadn't been. But Pom's right about all the non-town non-MS players being "neutral," so that's vacuous information, so it being gone is fine. The rest is OK.

Why hasn't LMP been buried? Shouldn't end of D5+end of N5 do it?

Ignore this. Rechecked the rules. Start-of-D6 doesn't count for flips due to things that aren't lynches.

[Iecerint]

EBWOPx2: "MO's right about Pom being an instance of..." =>

[Mighty Orbots]

@Iecerint, when LynchMePls flipped a Zombie that was his role name, not his faction. I've been arguing that it's not only possible but somewhat likely that the Zombies are the modified cult and that there is no cult leader for a while.

Tarhalindur's action seems to have been trackable. That makes it more likely that it's a standard twilight or daybreak action that is blockable than that it would be a rapid action or passive action over which the player had no control.

You might or might not be infected. Tarhalindur also had an item action last night that we might have tracked. We'll see if you or Nikanor report losing your soul after the kill. If neither of you do then I plan on treating you both as potentially infected but we'll see where we think we are after the kill.)

If we don't think that we've taken out the infection after today then we can easily try to reverse the order of the kills tomorrow (which handily enough, if you're the one we think is a Zombie would mean that we'd be trying to lynch you rather than day vig you so it should still work.)

If taking out the zombies in the game leads to another one being recruited from the waiting list I'm going to say we'll probably notice that happening. If that's how the cult works we can deal with it then and we'll have the advantage of knowing we need to keep the new recruit as isolated as we can.

Did you ask the mod some question that would prompt him to tell you something like that about your abilities changing? It's a surprising thing for him to have told you offhand.

Oh, and the list of dead players isn't quite up to date. Neither is the list of living players. A number of the flips should be in the graveyard now but aren't and both AdumbroDeus and dramonic should be dead. Perhaps now that I think Beholder is less busy I'll ask him to update that at some point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

Yeah, it was Kinetic's way of being evasive when I asked whether I would be told if I used up my deathproof ability. I asked because Tar claimed his had been used-up, and I wanted to see if I could catch him in a lie. Kinetic responded by saying that I would be informed if my abilities changed; when I followed-up by asking if one-shot ability use constituted ability change, he just sent me a smiley IIRC.

My theory is that the soul-tagging is neither rapid nor passive (it can probably be blocked); the subsequent body-jumping when (e.g.) Tar dies, though is. So you can't block it once it's set. It needs to be passive or rapid because it happened midday yesterday rather than at daybreak or twilight.

If Tar really targeted 2 players, either Niki or I is infected 100%, right? The only alternate possibility is that Faraday is lying. Or are you saying that Tar had 2 separate non-infecting abilities and a motive to lie about one of them?

The Zombie recruitment from the wait list is unlikely to be in play if Zombies are the entire cult.

***

Would anything in particular be wrong with this:

Daykill: Niki
Lynch: Iec (Needed with above because the aftermath of killing Tar is likely rapid and cannot be stopped)
Block: Tar (Because his infection appears to be a Daybreak thing and therefore is blockable)
Block: Katy (If we have a second one, I suppose, but it shouldn't matter)
~Check worship status. Assuming no shenanigans~
Daykill/Lynch Tar/Katy in some order

This is better than killing Tar first because it doesn't create ambiguity about who the Zombie is in the very probable case that either Niki or me becomes a Zombie given Tar's death.

[Mighty Orbots]

@Iecerint, well, we're not 100% sure that we understand the infection mechanism (or Faraday is lying) or that there's only one infected player out there now but I think both are likely to be true. ooba is probably less convinced than I am at this point and right now I don't know what anyone else in the game things about it. I also agree that the soul-jumping is probably rapid and passive but that the infection isn't.

The major downside can see to your plan if we fully understand what's going on is that it definitely kills both you and Nikanor, if we kill Tarhalindur first and then one of you admits to the lost soul then we can probably avoid killing the other. Or if neither of you admits to the lost soul but we lynch one and they flip Zombie we're probably safe not worrying too much about the other having been infected (though we'd probably still block and track them to be safe.) I think we have some chance of getting the same results with less town deaths if we go with the Tarhalindur day kill first.

Beyond that I need to get off to bed so any further conversation will have to wait till tomorrow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

Well, that is very sweet, but I AM HAPPY TO BE KILLED. I PROMISE. I TREASURE MY WINCON.

Am interested in what Niki thinks about things, since he's the other player whose wincon appears to be in jeopardy. Also, there is possibly something sketchy about Niki going on that can be confirmed by a 3rd party. I will elaborate if necessary.

More generally, I'd rather minimize wincon casualties than actual player casualties. Especially when my wincon's on the chopping block. ^^;

[VasudeVa]

Hey guys. Need anything from me? 8D. I love being PR confirmed Town.

[Mighty Orbots]

@Iecerint, I figured that might be your motivation but I thought I'd let you say it.

If I'm right about what's happening then your plan works just fine. The problem is that if I think if I'm wrong about anything about how the Zombies work we're more likely to learn it by trying to kill Tarhalindur first and seeing if anyone has any changes they're willing to report and would be able to adjust the plan accordingly.

I guess I'd like to hear what ooba and Nikanor have to say now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

I think that is an experiment that has already been carried out.

[Katy]

Speaking of which, Katy, do you have any abilities that need the target's role name to work (like my dayvig)? I believe there's someone else like me out there.

Nope, I've claimed all my abilities, none of them need a name in order to work.

I'd prefer not to be blocked if possible. I don't mind being redirected, but I think one thing we should try to do as quickly as possible is rolecop as many people as possible because I think it's likely that the cult leader is not using their real role name (not to mention that it is useful for finding out zombies before they spread).

[DTMaster]

I'm skydiving so I'll post tonight (hopefully). Nikanor will know of the aftermath.

[ooba]

Daykilling anybody but Tar who is a claimed anti-town role is a mistake. We are extremely unsure about how cults work still and can work out plans after Tar's flip. Discussion on the plan can happen after that ... We're now wasting time and a deadline might creep on us ..

Mina, please daykill Tar.

[Mighty Orbots]

@ooba, discussion of the plan can also happen now regardless of whether the kill has happened. If you're worried about the deadline creeping up on us then why aren't you doing that? You seem to have not been interested in answering my questions recently so I'll ask some (again.)

What do you propose to do if we do next if we successfully day kill Tarhalindur today?

You still seem to think that there's a cult leader. Who do you think the cult leader is?

What do you think that Tarhalindur's extra action last night did if not infect? I've pointed out what I think the problems with the quick talking are.

You've brought up hypnotist cults recently. If you think there's any chance we're dealing with one what do you mean by it? I can't figure out how it would work with the Zombie dynamic and Tarhalindur's knowledge that he was infected so if you're going to keep at that I need to hear what it is you're thinking of.

At this point I disagree about the assessment that we're extremely unsure about how cult works. I think we've got a pretty reasonable model with a couple possible ways it could pan out that we're probably dealing with. You have yet to say anything that should convince me (or others I think) otherwise.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Mighty Orbots]

@Iecerint, at this point I don't see a reason to hold back on what you've got in mind about Nikanor. Unless mafia or cult knowing it would give them a leg up on something we might as well try to sort it out sooner rather than later.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

Yeah, I wanted to give him a chance to explain it to me in our QT first, but he's taken ages.

Basically, he has claimed that he's given TNM his item back, but TNM claims he has not received his item back. This is bogus if item-giving is rapid. Absence on Kinetic's part might explain part of it, but it's been a really long time since he first announced the transfer....

[Mighty Orbots]

Yeah, that's worth sorting out.

@totallynotmafia, have you recieved an item from Nikanor at this point?

@Nikanor have you sent an item to totallynotmafia at this point?

@Iecerint, I have somewhat recently recieved an item from Tarhalindur so I know that rapid actions have been managed. What time did Nikanor claim to have in the quick topic that he'd already done the sending? I can check at least to see if it was before I received the item I did. The date and about the hour (with time zone) should be enough information.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

Niki claimed that he had already sent the item around midday August 9th EST. No claim on how much earlier the item was allegedly sent back. TNM asked Niki to send it back over several days after that in the thread IIRC.

I don't want to get much more specific than that vis a vie the time without the OK from Kinetic.

[Mighty Orbots]

@Iecerint, that's fine. It's plenty of detail. I do believe that Kinetic was busy in that stretch. I got the item for Tarhalindur yesterday so if totallynotmafia hasn't gotten it by now there's an issue but we'll let them confirm that they sent and received it at this point.

That would also explain why totallynotmafia asked the question about why I thought he had the item when he did on Friday which is nice. It seemed an odd question at the time. It also (I assume) clears up who got the other Nikanor quick topic (or did you have one with totallynotmafia from before that I'd forgotten about?)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

Well, I don't think I've explicitly alluded to any QT with TNM, but since you've guessed it, yeah, that's the other QT from Niki. He said his intent was to link up players he thought were unlikely to have been culted.

[Mighty Orbots]

@Iecerint, himm, I thought you meant in a quick topic when you said that totallynotmafia had asked for his item back. Looking back I don't see him asking for it in the main thread (which makes sense as I hadn't recalled him doing so recently) so that's probably why I made that assumption.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh