Open 239 - C9++

[drmyshottyizsik]

COME OUT AND PLAY GUYS.

YTHILL I LOVE TEH 180 in #446 OF: "UH, RIGHT, BUT WHEN FATE FLIPS TOWN ITS CUZ NS HAMMERED TO STOP ANDRIUS' POTENTIAL LYNCH. IM NOT SCUM ON THE WAGON NUH UH NO WAY"

I just LOL'D!!!!!!!
And really it would totally make sense for a desperate to pull that

[Ythill]

Ythill is the surprise surprise last scum. I've suspected him for awhile for that whole Mason-outing shebangabang earlier...

That's interesting, because shortly after I pressured Maf into claiming her buddy, you made this post...

This is good posting, and the sort of thing we need to talk about before the day ends (with a drmy lynch), and makes me replace Animorph with Andrius on my suspect list, BUT ani still needs to post more to erase doubt.

ALSO Ythill, you can't call people town based on the speed of their wagon. You just CAN'T. That's how I won (draw -_-) that one game referenced in MD. We wagonned our lamebuddy (well none of the final scum were in the game at that time, but) to L-1 D1 quickly, and then everyone made excuses for that slot's play from then on because of that.

PLUS he claimed VT. PLUS he's a detriment to town if he is somehow town, so this borders on two or three good policy lynches that are all pro-town moves for D1:
-Lynch a VT (no more outing PRs)
-Lynch a VI (if not lynched he'll live till LyLo, and guess what happens there)
-Lynch a possible scum (You can't read his posts and not see scumtells left and right. His contradictions are absurd)
^THIS is why drmy needs to die today Ythill.

...in which you cheerleaded a case I made against your buddy, and then tried to talk me out of it in a manner that suggested you were reading me as town. A little while later, you made this statement...

The first gives me good vibes from Fishy because I think he's right in his read of you and your being clouded.

...which seems a lot like another assumption that I am town. Then, a little while later, you made this post...

YTHILL

Have you seen the light?

Can my NS/Drmy pairing be any more plausible with my Fishy town read?

...which, again, seems like you're talking to Yth-town. So I'm wondering why you're now lying about your past suspicions. Could you explain that please?

Some other points I noticed about Fate while looking these up. He was spastacularly opposed to the Andrius wagon but all for hanging NS the goon. He linked NS-scum to a variety of possible buddies but my favorite instance is the one where he tied both of his buddies to the VI...

Normally I wouldn't be able to see Andrius and NS as scum together jumping on the ani wagon, but I agree with Ythill about Andrius' ISO play and them wagoning together for ani real hard would make perfect sense if drmy was in fact scum with them.

And, ohey, look who he was agreeing with: the same guy he's now claiming was his suspect at that time.

@Fate:

Do me a favor and give us your best shot @ SK hunting before we lynch you. You've lost this game, but you can still help us win it.

[Ythill]

And really it would totally make sense for a desperate to pull that

Go look at my scum meta. I'm not an idiot.

[Fishythefish]

This is just a first thoughts/things to do post.

I think the most compelling bit of Ythill's wagon analysis, by far, is the bit about NS and Andrius both failing to hop on the drmy wagon, while both positioning themselves to do so. This really points to Fate or Agar (or, from other people's POVs, me) as their scumbuddy.

drmy, meanwhile, is likely to be the SK. For scumminess with no connections to the mafia.

Rereading all those people is my top priority.

[Fate]

We already have this game wrapped up Ythill, even if we DO lynch me first.

Because tomorrow town DONT let Ythill talk his way out of it. When I flip town that means HE is scum on the Nobody wagon.

I don't see the point in refuting your points Ythill, I already made it clear I was buddying up to you to see where it went. I've done it in other games and it is an excellent tactic for avoiding the NK and encouraging bussing. It also frustrates the HELL out of scum when I reverse my read on them later on because they probably left me alive for my "reads"

The rest of your points they are just confirmation bias using the flips you have: "oh you did this here! [because NS flipped scum] and this was you doing XXX here! [because Andrius flipped scum" Its nothing concrete.

I've already said Drmy is likely SK. Which makes his VT claim pretty easy to coast

[Ythill]

I still haven't done my rereads and probably will not have time for a day or two. I'm noticing a trend in games lately though, where I do a shit-ton of work and everyone else coasts by. And I'm tired of it. I'd like to see other people working on this puzzle. There are two baddies left among six players that include me, maybe those numbers will motivate y'all to do some of the legwork yourselves? I'd especially like to see the masons getting down to business, since we don't have to worry about them lying to us.

This really points to Fate or Agar (or, from other people's POVs, me) as their scumbuddy.

Or shotty. Not the most likely option considering what happened yesterday, but I'm not going to cross him off the list just yet. I need to reread with the flips and confirmed masons in mind.

We already have this game wrapped up Ythill, even if we DO lynch me first.

Because tomorrow town DONT let Ythill talk his way out of it. When I flip town...

Tactics like these are what I love about your playstyle. But aren't you jumping the gun a little?

The rest of your points they are just confirmation bias using the flips you have

Confirmation bias caused me to change from calling you the towniest guy in the game to voting you? I don't think that term means what you think it means.

I've already said Drmy is likely SK.

Right, but I'm not interested in your off-the-cuff read. I'd like to see you to put some work into it. Into finding the last mafia too, if you're town. It's not D1 anymore.

[Fate]

Confirmation bias is you going from calling me the towniest guy to calling me scum, and then ISO'ing me and using the flips to spin all of my posts to a scum motive. Here give me 5mins I can do it too.

[Fate]

Wow, lotsa ninjas.

I hadn't seen that before, but you're assuming that Ythill was targetted by a non-Vig.

I've been thinking about this. At the begining of D1, the most reasonable assumption seemed to be no-vig, no-SK. Operating under that assumption, I figured that Maf was unlikely to be scum because of me as the hypothetical kill choice, which she's already admitted to. Then she started acting scummy and, like I said, I stumbled on the Reck-protect idea because I still think Mafuyu's scumteam would have been all over me. Ergo, my entertaining the idea of a failed NK is contingient on my belief that Mafuyu is scum. So why is

she

making the assumption?

Seriously, can

anyone

explain a reason other than her being scum?

Pushing the idea of Mafuyu scum so hard reads as you knowing there was a SK (i.e. your kill was blocked N0), and begun looking for anyone showing those signs.

I need to step back from my tunnel vision for a minute and take a fresh look at the game. The mason claims do explain much of nham's problematic behavior. I will check my reads over the next day or two and try to look at things from a fresh perspective.

Stepping back once you see that your SK hunt lead to a dead end. Your vote was sitting on the drmy wagon prior to this (who seems non-scum from wagon analysis.)

Good news for y'all, I didn't end up going out.

What's your read on fishy and why?

Sorry I missed this earlier. At the time you asked, I was entirely null on him. However, I just finished rereading and he's sullied himself a bit. See below.

Okay, first, a word about Maf/nham... As I've said, the mason claim explains most of nham's problematic behavior. However, Mafuyu still looks really scummy to me. I know that scum mason claims are a dangerous gambit but I'm also keeping in mind that Maf is a clumsy player. If she was fake-claiming, her original plan was a lot less risky than the corner I backed she and her partner into. For now, I'm going to back off but if the scum decide not to kill her (especially if they kill me instead) the unconfirmed mason team is going to become a thorn in the side of the town before endgame. My advice is that, if a cop exists, he should investigate Mafuyu sometime before potential LYLO. Whether she's scum or town, it's a two-for one investigation. If she's town and is NKed on the night of investigation, we still get a confirmed innocent out of the deal, and just me suggesting this should increase the chances that she or nham will be NKed ASAP. 'Nuff said, except to note that I will

not

be considering either of them confirmed town (as regards other reads) until we get a flip.

Of the remaining eight players, Andrius and Fishy look the most suspicious to me. Sorry Fate, shotty has easy mislynch tattooed on his forehead and the opportunism during the collapse of the Maf wagon has me leaning town on him.

Andrius seemed clean in the early game but he waxed chatty once the heavy arguments started rolling. He buddied to me and (to a lesser extent) Fate, believed Maf's claim too easily, and seems more interested in setup speculation than scumhunting. A couple of posts ago, he claimed to have more suspects than Maf but, rereading him in iso, he could've fooled me.

Fishy was absent for while and, since he's been here, his only scumhunting has been an opportunistic vote on the VI.

VOTE: Andrius

Keeping up the "masons are scummy" facade, this precludes your not NKing them las night. A bus on Andrius is appropriate seeing as how your SK hunting didn't pan out at all and made you look bad.

The first reason you quoted was a playstyle complaint that he said wasn't scummy, so I don't know why you're listing it, but will ask you: what purpose does that complaint serve for a scum agenda?

His first actual reason was a good point and I'm wondering why you didn't quote it. Maf dodging suspicion by making a joke about survivor claims and failing to explain her actions was scummy and, if I remember correctly, nobody else had pointed it out. So, AGar, why didn't you quote that reason? I agree that the lurking tell was weak, but that doesn't mean it was dishonest. The Maf-scum reasoning shotty quoted was accurate and was a large part of why I was driving her wagon. I should also point out that you understood my line of thought on the topic, and voted her shortly thereafter. Shall we look at your reasons for jumping on the same wagon?

Mafuyu wagon is looking better, mainly because Mafuyu is acting strange as hell.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mafuyu

And the rest of your case is that shotty claimed early, which serves a scum agenda how? Which is anything but a null mistake how? Meanwhile, everyone and their grandma is attacking him for the same null tells. What does that tell you about his alignment?

Ythill scum plays the hero by defending the lone drmy from attackers. There was no real town tells made by drmy up to this point and your town read of him was pretty baseless at the time.

ISO 45-50somethin

You build up the Fishy wagon when the Andrius one looks viable. Seems you only wanted to distance, not bus at that time.

End of Ythill's 270 - It is ROLE speculation though, which I did mention.

Who's role did I speculate about? Reck's role was confirmed and he's the only one I mentioned.

You haven't said anything to show I'm not interested in people's alignments.

You haven't said anything to show that you are. Your questions to me are pointless. Compare your own play to that of Fate and AGar: that should answer all of them.

@Fate:

I'm liking your posts in this game and I wouldn't be entirely opposed to a NS wagon because my read on him is fluctating around neutral at this point. However, now that you're seeing things my way regarding shotty, please check out Fishy's iso and consider joining me over here.

@Unsight:

I don't think your AGar vote is going anywhere. Though I'm tempted to OMGUS by what looks like a misrep of my early game, the majority of his play makes him look town to me. Please move your vote. I'd prefer if you moved it to Fishy, obv, but I'd be satisfied if you added steam to any of the wagons.

@Shotty:

Fate's attacks on you were overt. He was scumhunting before them, and is exploring other theories now. I do understand the temptation to OMGUS but, if you're looking for scum on your wagon, it's Fishy. Please move your vote to him (or to NS).

Look who asks everyone to join the Fishy wagon!

[Fate]

Well, I was seeing some good pro-Town play from a player that I had been considering voting. It changed my mind completely, and I decided to show him what he was doing right.

So what you're saying is that you and Maf aren't actually masons and that Nobody Special is your scumbuddy. There's going to be a whole lot of "oh shit" is your QT tonight, but it's not going to help. GG.

UNVOTE: Fishy
VOTE: Nobody Special

Your Andrius suspicion is almost non-existant here, and in following quotes. Not consistent at all. Your "mason scum theory" is very fabricated, forced:

Umm... what? Explain how any comment I have made there made

that

leap happen.

Lovin' the, "OMG how did you catch us!?"

First point, you two aren't playing like outed masons and when I asked you about that, you were both like, "Mmmm... I don't know." Second point, when I shifted pressure from Fishy to NS, Maf voted Fishy and you obv-buddied to him. And when I asked you about that you were like, "Mmmm... I don't know, but buddy-buddy-buddy." I dodn't even need the part where Maf links NS to Fishy or where you second-slot NS, but those lead to the same conclusion.

I'm serious folks. This is game over. More NS votes please, unless y'all trust me enough to lynch a "mason" today.

I was firmly convinced that Maf & nhamm were Masons; I'm not at all following how they slipped from that place in Ythill's eyes.

The bigger mystery is how they slipped into that place. I'm pretty resigned to the fact that we're not lynching them today, so long as y'all remember this after I'm gone.

Let's take a look at your input though... hmmm... called the towniest guy in the game town, explained that your counter-wagon has an alignment, forgot that you're not supposed to know I'm town yet, and made a wish list of things you'll be dead before doing. Yup. You're scum.

C'mon people, this isn't rocket science.

@Fate:

You've obviously never seen me eat a banana.

My train of thought should be obvious. I never really stopped being suspicious of Maf. Nham obv-coaching Fishy was the final piece of the puzzle and now it's all very clear to me.

Edit: Ohey look who's bussing.

^I could point out what EXACTLY is wrong with those pair of quotes, but it isn't exactly rocket science.

OH WAIT, drmy's is in this game:
Well uhhhh he went from "WRAPPED UP GG NS-NHAM-MAFUYU" to in the NEXT POST-> "my train of thought is obvious, the masons are scum who coached Fishyscu (mislynch attempt #3) and NS is scum who needs to die ASAP."

[Fate]

I'm stunned by that cardflip. WTF?

I guess I need to reread. Two scumfilps and a pair of confirmed masons isn't bad news though.

"OH FUCK THE SK SHOT MY BUDDY. NOW THE MASONS ARE CONFIRMED I SHOULDA KILLED THEM"

[Fate]

I could go on, but you get the point. Props to taking advantage of my sickness and getting the wagon analysis in before I could to try and earn "townie points" because that was the first thing I thought when I saw that flip and looked at the end of D1 VC.

The backpedaling later to include who "is scum" in the event of a Fate town flip kind of took some of the points away though.

[Ythill]

Heh. The difference being that linking the goon you're bussing to everyone and his grandma

is

scummy. You know, if you put half the effort into finding the SK as you did discrediting the guy voting you, you could get some of those townie points you're whining about. And you still don't know what confirmation bias means because, if you did, then by accusing me of it you are

still assuming that I am town.

If I'm scum, I don't have any beliefs about your alignment, I know it for a fact and what I did there was

fabrication

. You know, like you just did.

The backpedaling later to include who "is scum" in the event of a Fate town flip...

I didn't think I'd have to spoon feed this to you, but my statement had nothing to do with your flip. I intend to read isos before we hang someone and, if you're town, we'll probably figure that out before the lynch.

[Ythill]

Yesterday, Andrius claimed not to know that the godfather is NK immune. Either he was faking this, or he was the roleblocker. It seems to me like that would be a silly thing to fake, so I'm leaning roleblocker for the moment.

I was laying around, thinking about this game and considering going to look for cop breadcrumbs when I had a *facepalm* moment. Andrius had to be the RB

because

the GF is NK immune. Duh. Since both living scum are investigation immune, cop breadcrumbs are a dead end.

Will hopefully have time and energy for rereading sometime tomorrow.

[AGar]

I'm going to be limited to a post every other day for a week or so. One of our idiot minimum wagers just got fired and I have to pick up some of the slack, unfortunately.

If people are following Ythill's line of thought, then the choice should be down to me or FTF. Fate vs. Ythill is painfully obvious to be town-on-town. Neither is seeing it because they're clouded.

I'm thinking Unsight is more likely to be the SK, while FTF for scum. I don't see any other option for scum, while I think drmy is just a VI at this point.

VOTE: Fishythefish

[Ythill]

Hmmmmm... going to have to remember this AGar post. Our numbers suggest that neither scum wants to lynch the other today.

[Mafuyu]

Hmmmmm... going to have to remember this AGar post. Our numbers suggest that neither scum wants to lynch the other today.

That should be the case. Neither anti-town wants to walk in to the next Day without A. someone else to easily take a fall and B. so many town left.

[AGar]

Our numbers suggest that neither scum wants to lynch the other today.

I'm confused by this.

[Unsight]

So my theory for yesterday is shot now. I was thinking it was an Ythill<->Fishy<->AGar mafia. My suspicion of Fishy was from Ythill's early discounting him as a mason and my suspicion of AGar was from both Ythill and Fishy's mentioning of my vote on him before AGar did. Looked a lot like scum buddying. With that theory out the window, I'm not really suspicious of Fishy for mafia anymore (my main reason was Ythill's treatment of him). Ythill's behavior still could be scum buddying town and AGar I'll get to in a moment.

After rereading, I think Ythill is town and Fate is probably our last mafia. The wagon analysis in post 444 is very good but the big thing that strikes me is that Fate was never on the same wagon as Andrius or Nobody Special (prior to the hammer). To me, that's far more significant than most of what Ythill mentioned.

VOTE: Fate

As for the possibility of a SK... the setup (if I understand Open games correctly--this is my first Open btw) has the possibility of a one-shot vig. It seems really odd that Fishy suddenly brings up the possibility of an SK right before the lynch in post 425. What's even odder is that AGar is voting him because he thinks Fishy is mafia when it strongly looks like Fate or Ythill is mafia. I think AGar's reasoning is a load of crap but if we have another flavor of scum running around then it's probably one of the two of them (Fishy/AGar).

[Fate]

Heh. The difference being that linking the goon you're bussing to everyone and his grandma

is

scummy. You know, if you put half the effort into finding the SK as you did discrediting the guy voting you, you could get some of those townie points you're whining about. And you still don't know what confirmation bias means because, if you did, then by accusing me of it you are

still assuming that I am town.

If I'm scum, I don't have any beliefs about your alignment, I know it for a fact and what I did there was

fabrication

. You know, like you just did.

The backpedaling later to include who "is scum" in the event of a Fate town flip...

I didn't think I'd have to spoon feed this to you, but my statement had nothing to do with your flip. I intend to read isos before we hang someone and, if you're town, we'll probably figure that out before the lynch.

Oh ok, if you want to play semantics game we and derail discussion we can do that too.

OBVIOUSLY everything you are saying is just a fabrication of suspicion because you are scum, but I don't need to use that in my arguements because we're here pretending everyone else is town and seeing holes in people's logics. THATS WHAT MAFIA IS. SO you being "supposedly town" are using confirmation bias as a means to push your case on me, WHICH IS SCUMMY because you are twisting all of my posts to make your little picture perfect INSTEAD OF searching for the truth of what is going on AKA WHAT TOWN DOES.

AKA U IS SCUM.

And your defense is "but you're saying confirmation bias which by nature of the definition can only be comitted by town because BLAH BLAH I TOOK ENGLISH IN COLLEGE." <-NOT A REAL DEFENSE KTHXBYE.

Do I need to throw in the part about how you seem particularly obsessed with finding the SK? Because disguising your mafia motivated SK hunting with:"LULZ FATE IS OBVSCUMZ, k now lets find the SK guiz! Theory time!" ain't workin on ME.

[Fate]

So my theory for yesterday is shot now. I was thinking it was an Ythill<->Fishy<->AGar mafia. My suspicion of Fishy was from Ythill's early discounting him as a mason and my suspicion of AGar was from both Ythill and Fishy's mentioning of my vote on him before AGar did. Looked a lot like scum buddying. With that theory out the window, I'm not really suspicious of Fishy for mafia anymore (my main reason was Ythill's treatment of him). Ythill's behavior still could be scum buddying town and AGar I'll get to in a moment.

After rereading, I think Ythill is town and Fate is probably our last mafia. The wagon analysis in post 444 is very good but the big thing that strikes me is that Fate was never on the same wagon as Andrius or Nobody Special (prior to the hammer). To me, that's far more significant than most of what Ythill mentioned.

VOTE: Fate

As for the possibility of a SK... the setup (if I understand Open games correctly--this is my first Open btw) has the possibility of a one-shot vig. It seems really odd that Fishy suddenly brings up the possibility of an SK right before the lynch in post 425. What's even odder is that AGar is voting him because he thinks Fishy is mafia when it strongly looks like Fate or Ythill is mafia. I think AGar's reasoning is a load of crap but if we have another flavor of scum running around then it's probably one of the two of them (Fishy/AGar).

ITT: you fail to read day play. The hell would I be on a wagon WITH scummy people unless I smelled a bus? That's not a case, thats just speculation. "Well I don't think scum would do this/scum would do this=lazy Fate vote."

Unlike AGAR you see the light that the last scum IS within Ythill and me, and THAT is why I urge you to lynch Ythill first. You won't be dissappointed.

[Ythan]

Been having connectivity issues but things seem to be looking up.

[Ythill]

Quick recap of events. Based on voting records, I suggest that Fate is scum. He asserts that I am scum instead and that he has been suspicious of me for a long time. I post evidence that he is either lying about his beliefs now, or was doing so on D1. He

admits that he was lying

, but claims that he was doing so for a town reason: buddying to his suspect. I suppose that makes sense but, during the argument, he pooh-poohs a new piece of evidence by accusing me of a mistake that, by definition, town can make but scum cannot. Which, of course, suggests that he's

still

lying about what he believes. His excuse this time?

OBVIOUSLY everything you are saying is just a fabrication of suspicion because you are scum, but I don't need to use that in my arguements because we're here pretending everyone else is town and seeing holes in people's logics. THATS WHAT MAFIA IS. SO you being "supposedly town" are using confirmation bias as a means to push your case on me, WHICH IS SCUMMY because you are twisting all of my posts to make your little picture perfect INSTEAD OF searching for the truth of what is going on AKA WHAT TOWN DOES.

So his excuse, apparently, is that the game of mafia consists of pretending that your suspects are town while arguing that they are scum. Fate was just being hypothetical. You know, because he made the mistake on purpose, as part of playing mafia correctly.

WTF?

Do I need to throw in the part about how you seem particularly obsessed with finding the SK?

Do lies like these normally work? I am voting for the person who I believe most likely to be mafia. I am pressuring the person I see as most likely mafia. Meanwhile, I'm keeping an eye open for the SK and suggesting that

you

put some work into finding him, since my theory is that you already know that you are mafia. I suppose that's confusing to you because, according to your latest nonsense, I should be pretending that I think you're town.

@AGar:

Obviously we still have work to do but the evidence against Fate is compelling. Though I haven't examined my own vote patterns and a full comparison is up to the rest of you to work through, my place on the NS wagon should be at least somewhat compelling to all of you that don't know my alignment. It strikes me as odd that you would assume our argument to be town-v-town so easily. Your stance is especially interesting in light of the fact that neither scum wants to lynch the other today.

Anyway... I'm off to do some rereading.

[AGar]

It's not compelling enough, because I see the argument betwixt you two as town-on-town, and allowing players to slip by unnoticed. I've had strong town reads on both of you since midway through D1, and there hasn't been anything to dissuade me of that so far. I have a pretty good idea of what town-on-town arguments end up looking like, I often find myself in them.

Case-in-point about players slipping by, see Unsight in 467.

He opens with a long-winded explanation of why he thought it was a you/me/FTF team. His logic? I ignored the vote on me, but two other people asked about it. The three of us must be scumbuddies! Except he accidentally killed a second scum last night, shooting his case to shit.

He votes Fate for "never being on the same wagon as Andrius or NS." Except NS piled on the self-hammer with Fate already on it. Maybe it's up for interpretation, but to me, that's the same wagon. Make of it what you will. Fishythefish also never had a vote with the two of them, and if Ythill's freezing a bus strategy is even remotely close, FTF could have easily been pushing a bus on Andrius at the end of the day.

His final point is "OMG there could be a one-shot vig! But if not, AGar/FTF is the 3rd party." Except there would have to be a full vig. Which means two Vs, which can't compute with the setup. We KNOW the setup to be at minimum DCMMTTX. X could be a V, but then there'd be an SK and a full-time vig, and no one-shot. I think we can all rule this as highly unlikely. Another T and there'd be no SK. It can't be another M, because that would put an innocent child into play, and Ythan said they would be confirmed at the start. So the most likely last choice is C/B/D.

Also, about the evidence on Fate, I read the case on him as VC analysis and his flip in a read on you, which seems to be based off of VC analysis. Maybe a bit OMGUSy, but I don't see anything telling about a flipped read. Him improperly using confirmation bias, I don't see a scum motivation for. If you find one, let me know, and I might be convinced to get on the wagon, but right now, that's not compelling enough for me.

Unsight just hopped on a wagon with a reasoning weaker than straws, and it's being ignored.

FTF came in and echo'd Ythill's VC analysis, didn't add anything in regards to finding

scum

(as in, mafia. Not SK), and pointed the SK finger at drmy.

Both of these players are getting away with murder right now, and you two are too busy arguing who is more educated in English (it's me, boneheads) and why confirmation bias is scummy (hint hint - even so, it's not. If anything, it HAS to be town-aligned).

Yes and no. He referenced your actions, not your post. Namely, the fact that you didn't unvote.

I missed this. I didn't unvote mainly because I remain cautious around claims, especially soft-claims. Your claim wasn't exactly the most convincing in case you weren't aware. If maintaining my stance until given good reason to change my position is scummy, then I should probably be policy lynched in every game I play in.

[Ythill]

Hi AGar. Goodposting. I finished isos of the dead scum and, in light of them, I will be taking the points you made into account.

NS

Voted Maf, me, and ani. His behavior toward those three people was full of questions and challenges. He exhibited similar behavior towards Fate and, to a lesser extent, shotty and Fishy. NS mostly ignored his known buddy; the one comment directed at Andrius was a warning about the possibility of multiple docs. The othe living, non-confirmed players ignored by NS were AGar, and Unsight.

Fate is (as much as it pains me to say so) very Town. (I don't like him as a player, just on principle, so.)

Andrius is somewhat of a mystery to me. He's playing a bit differently than I know, and yet he's not scummy. This could mean he's neither town nor scum, but I'm not good at reading things like this.

I was firmly convinced that Maf & nhamm were Masons; I'm not at all following how they slipped from that place in Ythill's eyes. Again, I'm a bit slow, so it may sink in eventually.

AGar's on vacation; drmyshotty is being his usual VI self; and I don't have good reads on anyone else. I do need to read fishy in iso.

NS covered all of the players in three catergories. First we have the over-qualified, nervous-sounding opening reads on Fate and Andrius. Second, we have the vague name-dropping that progresses to excusing poor play. Finally we have Justa and Unsight, who are forgotten as "anyone else." This is a gambit post, and it's unlikley that we'll find buddies lumped together. Note that the bookend catergories have two names each. IMO, this post points to Unsight as mafia. However, note that Fishy seems to have been moved from third catergory to the second as an afterthought. Scum realizing he needed to at least mention his other buddy before he hit submit? It's a possibility.

Conclusions: Fate and shotty get non-mafia points. Fishy and AGar get points both ways. Unsight comes out of this analysis looking worse than anyone else.

Andrius

Voted ani and Maf. Unsight was voted during the RVS. Andrius buddied to myself, nham, and Fate. He mentioned NS a few times including a light defense but only made three statements directed at him, one of which was a jab and two of which were setup speculation. He behaved in a similar manner towards shotty: occasional mentions, light defense, a couple of jabs directed at him. Though he responded to direct questions and accusations, Andrius mostly ignored AGar, Unsight, and Fishy.

3) I do, actually, have more suspects. But its more of a gut feeling type thing. Mafuyu was definitely a suspect. Gut said AGar was scum for awhile due to him voting you early D1 (because you're evidentially a really big town asset, stuff like that). NS is also probable scum. (I'm willing to make a case on him, ISO, in requested.) His posts are short and trite- often with less content than me and Dr. Definitely semi-lurking here.

Under pressure, Andrius listed these suspects. The inclusion of NS leads me to believe that the name of his other buddy is absent. Interestingly, he didn't list Fishy but went on to post a couple of very weak attacks against him. This post was the only time Andrius mentioned Fishy, except to comment on his setup speculation in #166. Also not listed are Agar, Unsight, and Fate. In #163, Andrius made a setup comment to NS that seemed a little risky from scum; in the same post, he made an unneceasrrily reduntant setup comment addressed to AGar, which suggests that AGar is not mafia.

Conclusions: AGar gets non-mafia points. Andrius gave mixed messages on Fate and shotty with the former coming out of it a little cleaner and the latter a little dirtier. Unsight gets minor scumpoints. Fishy stands out as the most suspect in this iso.

Overview

• Fishy: The VCs suggest he is mafia. Somewhat sullied by NS iso. Most suspicious based on Andrius iso. Prima facie scumread from D1.
  
• Unsight: VCs suggest he is unlikley to be mafia but likley to be SK. Most suspicious from NS iso. Mildly suspicious from Andrius iso. Null through D1, which is strange.
  
• Fate: Heavily suggested to be mafia based on vote patterns. Cleared by NS iso. Mostly cleared by Andrius iso. Town read D1.
  
• shotty: The VCs sully him a bit. Cleared by NS iso. Dirtied somewhat by Andrius iso. Town lean from D1, due to being a likley mislynch target.
  
• AGar: Sullied a bit by VC analysis but also on the likley SK list. MotR from NS iso. Cleared by Andrius iso. Town read D1.

I still intend to reread the five players in my lynch pool, probably in the order I listed them above.

UNVOTE: Fate
VOTE: Fishythefish

[Fishythefish]

FTF came in and echo'd Ythill's VC analysis, didn't add anything in regards to finding

scum

(as in, mafia. Not SK), and pointed the SK finger at drmy.

Both of these players are getting away with murder right now, and you two are too busy arguing who is more educated in English (it's me, boneheads) and why confirmation bias is scummy (hint hint - even so, it's not. If anything, it HAS to be town-aligned).

I think this is rather unfair on me. I acknowledged in both my posts today that I need to do some reading before I could make a proper post. This is that post, and saying I'm "getting away with murder" for admitted inactivity for three days is seriously exaggerating the situation.

On the mafia (as opposed to SK) front:

FMPOV, the pool of potential mafiosi is Unsight, Agar, drmy, Ythill, Fate. Looking at the isos of:

Andrius

I agree with Ythill that Andrius’s only scumlist (Maf, Agar, NS) is pretty likely to only have one of his buddies in it.

NS

NS’s interactions with Ythill and Fate don’t look like scumbuddies. This is looking mostly at NS’s isos 8, 10 and 21, but generally he looks to be genuinely arguing with these players. I don’t set much store in his 398; at that point he was practically dead, and reading a lot into a post made by scum in that situation seems unwise. This is genuinely a case of what should be useless WIFOM, because there is no motive other than deception. If anything can be read into it, it’s a few non-mafia points for Fate, for the reason Ythill gives; any deeper analysis is too covered in the wrong kind of WIFOM for me.

Agar

Votes NS early – putting him to L-1 in doing so, which seems like a move a scumbuddy would be pretty bold to make, particularly without commenting on which vote it was. Is on Mafuyu and drmy wagons. When he got back from a V/LA, the votecount was:

Fishy 3 (Maf, drmy, Ythill)
JABOC 2 (Andrius, NS)
drmy 1 (Agar)
NS 2 (nhammen, Fate)
Andrius 1 (JABOC)
Agar 1 (Unsight)

If we had an Andrius/NS/Agar scumteam, this would have been a wonderful time to attack me for any of them – and Agar was in a natural position to throw his vote around. The sequence of votes from here was:
Agar votes NS
Fishy votes Andrius
Agar vote Andrius
I’m not seeing that as likely from Agarscum. Also, as Ythill points out, him being the third vote on a Maf wagon doesn’t look much like he’s scum with the first two votes.

Unsight

Unsight voted twice yesterday. The first was his vote for Mafuyu, and the second was one for Agar. The second is poorly explained. When I asked him about it, he said “what’s it to ya?”. He then voiced support about me twice without voting for me, while hardly commenting on Andrius or NS – although he does criticisie JABOC for a “soft-sell” on NS. For me, that fits well with scum backing the only alternative to the lynch of one of his buddies.

Ythill

For some reason, I was kind of expecting to find Ythill totally clear on isoing him, but it’s not that conclusive. His play fits ok with scum trying to lead a lynch on me, with a bus as a second option. Although in that case you might expect him not to hop around so much – if he’d really gone all out for my lynch I suspect I’d have been in trouble. My general read on him is very town – he had a huge part in derailing the drmy wagon, and his stances have the ring of truth about them. There’s one small thing nagging me about Ythill, but I want to see how some stuff plays out before I talk about that, and it’s not likely to influence my vote today.

drmy

As I’ve said before, I think his L-1 vote on Mafuyu was opportunistic and awful. His arguments against that have been crappy strawmen, and he’s never tried to explain his stance on Mafuyu. NS and Andrius’s stances on his wagon were both “I like it, and I might join it, but not just yet”. I’ve been thinking this is because they wanted excuses if they needed to join the wagon later; but it also fits if they don’t want to bus their godfather buddy unless they have to. As for drmy’s own votes and stances, he doesn’t have anything to say about NS or Andrius, until a vote for Andrius late in the day. I find it rather off that he is happy to jump on a wagon with his two main suspects (me and Agar) on it, when it’s on a player he’s never said anything about, without explaining his vote at all. This reversal fits well with him deciding that one of his buddies looks to be going down, and deciding to bus one of them.

Fate

Interactions with NS don’t look like scumbuddies from this end either. Vote is on NS for most of the day; would be a pretty serious bus. Unlikely mafia.

So. My prime candidates for scum are Unsight and drmy. From the drmy wagon, I’m thinking he is more likely; I can’t really see why neither NS nor Andrius voted drmy unless he is scum

I think Ythill’s “freezing a bus” explanation for the self-hammer makes no more sense than just “wanting to deny the town information” or “stopping a potential shift to a roleblocker”. There’s no particular reason the NS would want to freeze a bus on Andrius in that situation; particularly since he had no idea Andrius was about to die. It seems a fairly arbitrary explanation.

On Ythill’s analysis generally:
- I agree with most of his votecount analysis. Particularly that the drmy wagon in particular points to Fate, Agar, me or drmy himself.
- As discussed above, I think he reads way too much into 398. I also don’t see at all why he clears shotty based on the NS iso.
- I don’t understand where some of his conclusions from the Andrius iso come from. In particular, where does me being “most suspicious”, Unsight being “mildly suspicious” and shotty being “dirtied somewhat” come from?
- On an individual level, I obviously disagree with your read on me. We’ve talked about that read, and frankly I still don’t really get it. Other than that, the only individual read I have a problem with is shotty; with the scumflips we’ve had, I don’t see any reason at this stage to think he was a likely mislynch rather than a likely scumlynch.

On the SK front: since our SK is stacked with immunities, he's got no particular reason to try and avoid night actions. This is going to make him hard to spot. On trying-to-keep-his-head-down grounds, I'd guess Unsight, but there's noone I'd rule out completely at this stage. IIRC, I saw one or two instances of people assuming there

wasn't

a SK while I iso'ed for this post; these could be weak not-SK tells, so I'll go and have another look for those later.

vote: drmy

The only other person I’m at all likely to vote for today is Unsight.