Of Gods And Men (GAME OVER!)

[ooba]

LMP might be a force replace role of some kind
- Ort replaced once he was lynched -> Transition from ???? to Benevelont spirit
- Flip replaced at start of D2 (Faraday's vig triggering at daybreak?) -> Transition from Benevelent spirt to Wayward spirit
- Xite replaced at end of D4 -> Wayward to Zombie

We might be dealing with a twilight recruit here. Might want to take a closer look at our modified survivor too since in LMPs case, force replacement looks like it was triggered by alignment change. (Cannot work out DS's claimed Cuckoo ability though)

[ooba]

Faraday, who did you track Night 2?

[Faraday]

Fate.

Also up for giving my item away. How about Mina (is there a reason she isn't a good choice?)

[Mighty Orbots]

@ooba, I think the forced replace part is unlikely for a couple reasons. orotolan requested replacement before getting lynched (and I don't think that his lynch was inevitable at the time at all.) I had to let the mod know that Xite91 had requested replacement as he hadn't put the request in red. If those were both forced then we're getting some really sophisticated manipulation of how people leave the game.

I don't disagree that the vig shot from Faraday or the lynch could have something to do with a transition, but if there is no cult leader outside the Zombie involved then it would have to have been finished by the end of Night One for Albert B. Rampage's Census to pick the cult up at all. Unless of course that player spot would always have flipped cult even before it was a Zombie.

If we've got a twilight recruit what do you make of Tarhalindur's extra action from last night which got picked up by the track? I think a full transition happening in Twilight or at Daybreak could be the case.

The modified survivor might have changed alignments I suppose but I'd rather worry about that after we deal with the Zombies and shoot Katy. If we still haven't won Sobriquet will be a place to look but for now she's not someone I'm concerned about.

@Faraday, hold off on passing it until Tarhalindur has passed his. Mina might not be a good target just because Tarhalindur might go that route.

We actually don't particularly need you to pass your item until after the day kill I don't think and we might not need you to at all.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Fate]

Fate.

Also up for giving my item away. How about Mina (is there a reason she isn't a good choice?)

:C

Who did I target?

Apparently Mina wants to know REAL bad...

[Faraday]

VV I think from memory. someone with a funny name, lemme check >_>

[Faraday]

oh chronopie app.

[ooba]

- Agree with you on the force replace thing but still think LMP was not a leader.
- Surprised you didn't think of Faraday passing the item idea.

<spec>Here's an interesting theory: A Cult leader can normally not talk with any of his recruits. If he chooses to do so, he makes them lose worship for a night. Or a recruit can initiate conversation at a loss of worship.</spec>

MO, Night 4 worship is the key to the game. I had forgot to add SB so we might be missing a massive 5-8 worship votes. Your theory is less compelling because worship strip doesn't seem to come from the Mafia and I expect any cult theory to explain why this happened ...

GOO claimed

Mighty Orbots 2
Faraday 2
Nikanor 1
DTMaster 2
VasudeVa (replaces Elscouta) 4
Tarhalindur 2
Total: 13. Actual: 13

JCA claimed

ooba 4
Parama 1
Fate 4
Albatross (replaces Kairyuu) 1
Iecerint 2
Mina 2
TNM 1
AD 1
Total: 16. Actual: 11

Others

ABR 2 - Had him under GOO
SB 1 - Had her under JCA
dramonic - missed voting

[ooba]

<spec>Here's an interesting theory: A Cult leader can normally not talk with any of his recruits. If he chooses to do so, he makes them lose worship for a night. Or a recruit can initiate conversation at a loss of worship.</spec>

If we've got a twilight recruit what do you make of Tarhalindur's extra action from last night which got picked up by the track?

If the recruit has an ability that can initiate conversation by creating a QT, then Tar might be tracked to Iecerint right?

[ooba]

"That's funny, I thought I'd made it perfectly clear who I have read as cult leader. (Especially since I laid out the case to Orbots last night.)"
- MO, can you (paraphrase please, dont get killed) tell us how Tar had as cult leader and why? Although I don't believe anything he says, it'll help to see if my vibe about him is right ..

[Mighty Orbots]

@ooba, I don't understand how the ortolan spot could have been added for balance when Tarhalindur picked the lyncher role and you don't think that LynchMePls was also not the cult leader. Albert B. Rampage's Census should have been giving two roles as cult.

Why don't you think that a worship block could have come from the Mafia on Fate or yourself Night 4? There's no reason to think that Snow_Bunny wouldn't have been able to do that and I think it's at least as likely as your idea that worship is given up temporarily for the ability to communicate among cult members. If that happened and Snow_Bunny did worship JCA then what doesn't match up?

Also, the GOO worship that night is the worship that balances out. How does your worship work lead you to VasudeVa being cult at this point (given that this is where you have your vote.) I could see looking a Fate as cult if you think that the worship is key but not the direction you seem to be looking.

Also, if Iecerint was the cult leader in this situation you're proposing then we'll be dealing with him anyhow if we go with the plan that I've outlined. I find it much more likely that Tarhalindur was recruiting though.

Tarhalindur is trying to portray Faraday as the cult leader due to his dowsing. Prior to the LynchMePls's death he seemed fairly convinced you were a top candidate. Today when I asked him he listed Myself, Fate, Mina and Katy as alternatives but didn't list you until I asked him why you were left out (and then his answer was something about you noticing worship things but you've been doing that all game.) I agree that his information on those lines is useless.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[ooba]

@ooba, I don't understand how the ortolan spot could have been added for balance when Tarhalindur picked the lyncher role and you don't think that LynchMePls was also not the cult leader. Albert B. Rampage's Census should have been giving two roles as cult.

Well any role which gets can get converted to scum (mafia,cult) is anti-town. Maybe its not balance purposes. But as I've said before, ABR's census is not a valid argument because
- You should take Katy's rolecop of "Benevolent spirit" on ort into account for N1. Therefore that role was clearly Town at that point in the game which was what it showed in ABR's census.

Why don't you think that a worship block could have come from the Mafia on Fate or yourself Night 4? There's no reason to think that Snow_Bunny wouldn't have been able to do that and I think it's at least as likely as your idea that worship is given up temporarily for the ability to communicate among cult members. If that happened and Snow_Bunny did worship JCA then what doesn't match up?

Even if you assume
- SB blocked one of us
- SB didn't worship
You are short one JCA worship (and are also assuming that ABR did not worship vote). So it does not explain everything.

Also, the GOO worship that night is the worship that balances out. How does your worship work lead you to VasudeVa being cult at this point (given that this is where you have your vote.) I could see looking a Fate as cult if you think that the worship is key but not the direction you seem to be looking.

Well if we are going with a hypnotist cult theory again with Tar\Fate as recruits I think Iece is the best bet.

Tarhalindur is trying to portray Faraday as the cult leader due to his dowsing. Prior to the LynchMePls's death he seemed fairly convinced you were a top candidate. Today when I asked him he listed Myself, Fate, Mina and Katy as alternatives but didn't list you until I asked him why you were left out (and then his answer was something about you noticing worship things but you've been doing that all game.) I agree that his information on those lines is useless

Lol thats everyone ...

[Mighty Orbots]

@ooba, and you're now sure that Katy was telling the truth about her rolecop on LynchMePls for what reason? If she's scum (and there's every reason to think that she might be) then there's no reason to rule out her lying. That would sort of match with the trouble with the name claim with the Wayward Spirit or Benevolent Spirit.

I also expect most investigations to happen before kills. If it was Faraday's kill attempt that finished some sort of conversion of the spot to then it would probably have happened after the role cop fired. Further, Albert B. Rampage's census clearly happened after the kills based on the numbers. If Katy was telling the truth about a role cop investigation there's no reason to think that the role couldn't have been Zombie by the time Albert B. Rampage's Census rolled around.

Based on the Zombie role name with nothing else and the fact that we think that Tarhalindur is Zombie Big Daddy we almost certainly have LynchMePls coming into the game as cult. Either he was summoned by a cult leader or he was the entire cult at the start. Albert B. Rampage's Census strongly indicates that he was the only cult member at the start.

Hmm, I was counting the wrong way with the numbers of the Census. It could be reporting error or some discrepancy between what some player thought they did in terms of submission and what the mod thought they received or it might be something else. I think that the Zombie connection and the census information is more worth pursuing at this time in any case. If we can figure those out we should have the cult done with whereas we don't have any way to know if dead mafia members could do anything to effect how worship worked. I think that there's a clearer chain that indicates what's going on with that then there is the worship which is muddied by how many people it involves (everyone.)

I suppose you'll need to explain what you have in mind with a hypnotist cult. The way I envision it I don't see how it could fit with either the Zombie flavor we're dealing with or Tarhalindur's awareness of being recruited.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[ooba]

3841:
"The exact role name that I got for Tarlahindur is Zombie Big Daddy, in case that is necessary for day vig."

3540:
"Mina: Recruiting changes role name. Current role name: Zombie Big Daddy."

Unless Katy is a cult leader and already knew this. Therefore, we have evidence of her rolecop abilities.
Pretty certain she is a rolecop and that LMP was a "Benevolent Spirit"- Town alignment at D2 daybreak (since as you rightly mentioned ABR's census took care of all the kills).

There are four possible theories:
a) LMP=Wayward spirit whose role changes on some predefined triggers (could be daily).
b) LMP=Recruited by the cult leader D0. However the leader knows that there are some strings attached. (Like if he gets lynched\killed first time, he converts to town or something)
c) LMP=Recruited by the cult leader D0 as "Zombie"
d) LMP=Cult Leader

Rolecop results eliminate c. Prefer a to b.

[Mighty Orbots]

@ooba, or Katy lied about the role cop and both Zombies have tried to follow her lead (as she gave the role names first in both cases.) That's more likely if she's the cult leader but in that case we've got her under control anyhow.

But, really, on your list I think option A is most likely (which includes D really.) I don't particularly think that there's another cult leader out there and I think that if we stop the current Zombie infestation we'll be done with it.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Mighty Orbots]

@ooba, well, or I suppose she could have lied about the first one and be telling the truth about Tarhalindur's role name.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

OK, so, if we KNOW that Katy is mafia, why the hell are we entertaining the idea that she's the Cult Leader?

AS SOON AS I'M CONVINCED MY THEORY IS WRONG, PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IT.

[Mighty Orbots]

@Iecerint, we won't actually know Katy's alignment until the flips are done. There's good evidence for her being mafia and that's where my money would be right now but the game's not over yet and it'd be foolish to assume there's not still room to be surprised.

@ooba, if there are other members of the cult out there besides Tarhalindur right now who do you think they'd most likely be. If that list includes Nikanor or Iecerint then are you opposed to the plan that I've outlined. If you think it's someone else I'll listen but I'm pretty convinced that pursuing the Zombies is our correct choice at this point.

In any case, I'm off till this evening. If there's anything important said I won't be able to address it till then.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Mighty Orbots]

@ooba, actually, one more thing before I go. In your hypothetical situation, if Tarhalindur gives up his worship votes in order to make contact with the cult leader and then has to use his action to target them in order for that to work what happens if he gets redirected? Also, does he have to know who he's targeting or does it self target for him. I sort of think that for cult to have that sort of action it would need to be a rapid action rather one that could be interfered with over the course of the night if you think that contact was being made for last night as it'd be odd for the result (getting the quick topic) to kick in before the action took place (and if it could be tracked by a daybreak action I'd expect it to be taking place during the night.) The more I think about it the less likely that explanation for Tarhalindur's targeting last night seems to me. I think it's much more likely that his targeting was an infection type action.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Tarhalindur]

@ooba, actually, one more thing before I go. In your hypothetical situation, if Tarhalindur gives up his worship votes in order to make contact with the cult leader and then has to use his action to target them in order for that to work what happens if he gets redirected? Also, does he have to know who he's targeting or does it self target for him. I sort of think that for cult to have that sort of action it would need to be a rapid action rather one that could be interfered with over the course of the night if you think that contact was being made for last night as it'd be odd for the result (getting the quick topic) to kick in before the action took place (and if it could be tracked by a daybreak action I'd expect it to be taking place during the night.) The more I think about it the less likely that explanation for Tarhalindur's targeting last night seems to me. I think it's much more likely that his targeting was an infection type action.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Considering that the ability is named Bite... yeah. I think it may only be given out to recruits who no longer have activated abilities - not sure.

Passing item to Orbots - I don't think Grant Item can infect, not after the latest information.

[Iecerint]

OK, so, if Katy is at all likely to be CL, AND she is almost certainly the last mafia if she isn't, it is totally bogus to refrain from killing her today.

[Mighty Orbots]

I did receive the item from Tarhalindur. Regardless of what else we're going to do today is there any reason to put off trying to kill him now? I guess primarily I'm asking ooba though if anyone else has a reason feel free to speak up. In theory we could wait for Nikanor to pass his item to totallynotmafia but if he's unwilling to do that for whatever reason then we should have a pretty good idea of who we want to lynch anyhow so it largely doesn't matter.

@Iecerint, because right now we believe that we've got Katy contained no matter what she is and I'm less confident about our Zombie problem. Katy is much more likely to be the last mafia than cult and a last known mafia that we're aware of and able to block or redirect isn't threatening right. A cult that we don't understand but which we might have the information to wipe out within the next day or two is a much better target.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

Isn't the normative way to contain a cult to kill the CL?

The best evidence we have about the zombies is that killing them yields a bad result. (It may be different if we knew how to prevent the disease-passing from happening.) There's a chance that zombie-killing is totally worthless (i.e. the universe where zombies keep existing until a separate CL role is killed).

[Mighty Orbots]

@Iecerint, well, I've spent the past while explaining why I think that for this particular cult the infection is spread by Zombies as a night action and that even if there is a cult leader who's not a Zombie they probably don't have the ability to recruit on their own and summoned ortolan in (in some way which had only one cult member show up on Albert B. Rampage's census.) LynchMyPls, by flipping Zombie, probably demonstrated that he was the source of the infection and timing strongly suggests to me that Tarhalindur was activated as a Zombie when LynchMePls died. If there aren't other Zombies out there (and I think that there's a very good chance that right now there aren't) then we've got a very real chance of eliminating the cult recruiting mechanism by tomorrow.

If you've got a better theory for how the Zombies are being spread than by Zombie bites (or whatever Tarhalindur targeted someone with last night, though I'm not sure it benefits him to lie about that) I'll certainly listen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Iecerint]

My thought is that CL has a Zombie pet, and the Zombie pet passes around its Zombiehood upon death for so long as CL remains alive. I think this is a more plausible explanation because it avoids the plothole where LMP only managed to bite 1 player all game and the plothole where the Zombies are fucking impossible to stop (i.e. the cult I think Tar alluded to, where all night targeting or something cause Zombification).

But I sort of don't understand certain things about the game, so those probably aren't plotholes for some reason?